'the End Of The Beginning'

[Red Baron]

"This is not the End, or even the Beginning of the End, but it may be the End of the Beginning"

Thus Churchill summed up the Battle of Britain, five years before WW2 was ultimately won. In many ways those famous words serve as a paraphrase for the battle being fought by HPC against the immensely powerful vested interest opposition and the similarities will surely find resonance with the Bears on this forum.

There has been an irrevocable change in events over the past few weeks; all the indicators now point firmly towards a major correction in house prices for those with the intelligence to perceive the signs. For me the watershed was marked by watching Allsop's ludicrous posturing on her vile TV programme earlier this week; her assumption that today's monstrous property bubble is set to swell by a further 50% by 2010 is the final vindication that the VIs have utterly 'lost the plot'. A last ditch, panic-stricken, appeal to the remaining Sheep which I found stangely comforting and confirmation, if it was needed, that we are in the biggest bubble of all time.

But to return to the Churchill analogy we have a long haul ahead of us - probably three to five years before property prices return to sanity. What to do in this time - chew the cud, bicker endlessly, or use this forum constructively? What views do people have?

Here's one view. I suspect that there are a great many STRs on this forum with substantial equity who will be seeking the best advice on where to invest that money for the long haul. How about a 'Virtual HPC Investor Club' to promote an interchange of ideas about where to bank that seed corn. Why not invest 'virtual money' in a basket of assets suggested by forum members and watch progress? This could be fun and highly educational.

As the smart money flees property where will the next asset bubble be? Any views Dr Bubb?

Edited August 12, 2005 by Red Baron

[Warwickshire Lad]

Here's one view. I suspect that there are a great many STRs on this forum with  substantial equity who will be seeking the best advice on where to invest that money for the long haul.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Er, don't forget FTBs with deposit as well, this forum is not an STRs only club !

Where should FTBs invest that money if it's not going on a house ? Where should FTBs with very little money even start, not only to buy a house but what on earth is going to happen with pensions ?

My deposit is split largely between an ISA and an eSavings account, but I've recently put a percentage in Gold too. I've been thinking about buying a few tech stocks as well and see if I can do any better than beat the pathetic Interest Rates we have in this country right now.

[Red Baron]

Er, don't forget FTBs with deposit as well, this forum is not an STRs only club !

Yes, my apologies!

[Yankee]

I've said it before, but I strongly urge anybody who will need to access their money (such as for a downpayment on a house) within a three-year time frame to not risk any of the principal. You should have that money in a sure thing--a CD or money-market fund, for example.

Now, if you have some money to spare (i.e., you won't need it for a house downpayment, children's college, medical emergency, etc.), then you can play the markets--if you're as savvy as our Dr. B, that is.

[Loftus Road]

Wise advice Yankee. For me I've built up a fair size of money. Got the isa, premium bonds and am not really into risks, but over the last couple of weeks been getting a bit itchy for some reason and the other day bought some shares. It's very easy, particularly reading this board sometimes to get swept along with the tide without really knowing what you're doing. It's even more easy because you only have to press a few buttons. Anyway, my shares are doing alright but to stop myself doing it again I've put a large chunk of money into a fixed interest account. Low risk low reward I guess but probably suits me better.

[Tuberider]

Maybe the next stock bubble will be in companies engaged 'sustainable' or 'alternative' energy production, i.e wind, biofuel, SASOL type oil-for-coal etc.

If oil stays this high, or even above 50usd a barrel surely it must only be a matter of time before capital pours into the alternatives ?

Any thoughts on this ?

[Guest muttley]

RB

It's a good idea in principle,but how are you going to stop the rampers?

Far better to DYOR.Tips are for waiters.

[firebug]

I've been buying shares on and off for the past 3 years. I know virtually nothing about shares and have made some poor decisions, but also, probably more due to luck than anything else some good ones. It's contributed a fair amount to my house cash fund though and it's fun!! Rest of my dosh is in a cash isa.

[justanewbie]

What to do in this time - chew the cud, bicker endlessly, or use this forum constructively? What views do people have?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

A timely post, thanks Red Baron.

My own thoughts exactly....

1. How to stay well-informed of what is going on ?

2. How to invest wisely as I wait for prices to correct ?

1. I enjoy the cut-and-thrust of forum chit-chat but my main reason for

being here is to gleen information and, through intelligent debate -

sometimes with those of the opposite persuasion - consolidate my

opinion of what is really going on in the economy and the housing

market.

2. No answers to that one yet. I am very, very wary of committing

my hard-earned to anyone or anything that I do not totally understand

and trust.

Edited August 12, 2005 by justanewbie

[TWT]

Er, don't forget FTBs with deposit as well, this forum is not an STRs only club ! 

Where should FTBs invest that money if it's not going on a house ?  Where should FTBs with very little money even start, not only to buy a house but what on earth is going to happen with pensions ?

My deposit is split largely between an ISA and an eSavings account, but I've recently put a percentage in Gold too.  I've been thinking about buying a few tech stocks as well and see if I can do any better than beat the pathetic Interest Rates we have in this country right now.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Sorry for the off topic, but can you indicate how to take gold, my banking advisore told me that they have no product (can he lie to me, it is H**C)for that!

thanks

TWT

[Saving For a Space Ship]

Nice post RB, if its going to take 3 to 5 yrs at you say, My thoughts swing to the plentiful talk on hpc about sustainable building & the 'right ' way of designing or building a house, rather than a shoebox.

Why shouldn't the hive mind of the hpc members take a year or so to research & design their perfect house, then a selection of the STR's chip in and build the HPC forum 'show home' over the next year or so.

Likely it would be a self build, so it would give a chance for members to meet up face to face more & learn a bit about building etc. It would be an example of how things should be done from the many bright minds on this forum.

It could be be shared among the members when completed & used as an example of good practice or sold & a better or different one built.

Edited August 12, 2005 by Saving For a Space Ship

[justanewbie]

My thoughts swing to the plentiful talk on hpc  about  sustainable building

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I looked into that, myself.

Approached the local council regarding building

a fully sustainable, self-energising house out of

low-tech materials.

I don't need to tell you what the reactions of

the council were.

It was the same as their reaction to my attempts

to re-cycle the masses of cardboard we send to

landfill every week.

Maybe I should just build a cardboard house and

let them moan about it.

[Saving For a Space Ship]

I looked into that, myself.

Approached the local council regarding building

a fully sustainable, self-energising house out of

low-tech materials.

I don't need to tell you what the reactions of

the council were.

It was the same as their reaction to my attempts

to re-cycle the masses of cardboard we send to

landfill every week.

Maybe I should just build a cardboard house and

let them moan about it.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I know the problem, I used to run a community based reuse / recycling computer project in South London for years.

Councils can be very superficially enthusiatic initially about green issues, but local politics, VI's & beaurocracy can soon bog you down.

But if it is a long term plan with 3 to 5 years as RB says, the major problems, could be identified, navigated around & documented for others to follow so the wheel is not re-invented. It certainly would not be easy & certainly not too radical as insurance co's don't like that.

Perhaps the important thing is the design & discussion of the issues. The actual building of it & location is not so important. Several people could take the ideas & go off and build their own variations at the bottom of the market.

It would be a shame to be held up by Councils etc unneccesarily.

Maybe it could get funding as a support/ re-education centre for 'bankrupt bulls' who've had a nervous breakdown or built with the community service of convicted 'self cert' fraudsters

Edited August 12, 2005 by Saving For a Space Ship

[Tuberider]

Thanks Dr Bubb

I will have a good browse through your GF's site in due time

[penbat1]

1/ Build up cash savings

2/ Retire

3/ Emigrate to Bulgaria where i will:

( a ) buy a country villa for around £10,000 (loads of land included in the price as well), or

( b ) buy a self build house for around £4,000 which can be disassembled and moved to a new location if i ever get bored with where i am.

Edited August 12, 2005 by penbat1

[Yankee]

1/ Build up cash savings

2/ Retire

3/ Emigrate to Bulgaria where i will:

( a ) buy a country villa for around £10,000 (loads of land included in the price as well), or

( b ) buy a self build house for around £4,000 which can be disassembled and moved to a new location if i ever get bored with where i am.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You forgot one:

2a. Learn to speak Bulgarian.

[penbat1]

You forgot one:

2a.  Learn to speak Bulgarian.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It isn't essential. You can live with an enclave of Brits if you wish and communicate with Bulgarians using a form of charades. Quite a few of the younger Bulgarians and people in positions of authority speak English anyway.

[oracle]

I've been buying shares on and off for the past 3 years.  I know virtually nothing about shares and have made some poor decisions, but also, probably more due to luck than anything else some good ones.  It's contributed a fair amount to my house cash fund though and it's fun!!  Rest of my dosh is in a cash isa.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

...same sort of situation here,I got drawn into the dotcom thing with several workmates(along the lines of they can only go up......I remember recommending HBOS to them,halifax as it was then....because it was safe and boring,and they did mortgages....needless to say,I wasn.t listened to and tech shares were bought.Don't get me wrong...I dabbled in a bit of tech too...but when they went down I didn't hold......and the ones I did I averaged down),came out with a fair profit,and learnt a hell of a lot by studying bloomberg/uk invest/tech analasys too.

but there are folks who think nothing of jumping out of the frying pan into the fire...I suspect a number of "developers" of the last 2 years fall into this category.....I have learnt from my mistakes,seems they just can't!

[needle]

Maybe the next stock bubble will be in companies engaged 'sustainable' or 'alternative' energy production, i.e wind, biofuel, SASOL type oil-for-coal etc.

If oil stays this high, or even above 50usd a barrel surely it must only be a matter of time before capital pours into the alternatives ?

Any thoughts on this ?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Ohhh looks like we got a real live intelligent person on the board.

Very good analysis m8 - keep it coming.

[Tuberider]

Is that sarcasm ?

[dogbox]

Ohhh looks like we got a real live intelligent person on the board.

Very good analysis m8 - keep it coming.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Are you being sacastic about Tuberider?

If so, lets us have your investment tips, I can hardly wait.

[right_freds_dead]

classic brits abroad.

[Smurf1976]

I looked into that, myself.

Approached the local council regarding building

a fully sustainable, self-energising house out of

low-tech materials.

I don't need to tell you what the reactions of

the council were.

It was the same as their reaction to my attempts

to re-cycle the masses of cardboard we send to

landfill every week.

Maybe I should just build a cardboard house and

let them moan about it.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Don't councils in the UK pick up cardboard for recycling along with the glass, plastic, newspapers, cans etc?