webchat Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 A dog always returns to it's vomit. Some delightful people frequent this place, I must say Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waitingscot Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 A dog always returns to it's vomit. Disassociated and never looked back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedebtisreal Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 My father always used to say that you know you are right when the other person resorts to rudeness.. Perhaps he should have taught you maths instead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drat Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 Indeed I do and the market is now only 10% down year on year according to the Halifax and only 3% down according to the Nationwide... No, you don't know how to read graphs. That is a graph of YOY rate of change, not price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPants Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 Well I have to say I'm getting fed up with this. The Govt has changed the game so much by it's complete fiscal and monetary irresponsibility that the inevitable fall in prices relative to wages may be delayed years or only come due to eventual high inflation. The weakest of the bulls arguments 'they would never let prices fall' seems to actually turn out to be their strongest. Meanwhile I save £1000 a month and effectively lose it all due to rising prices. When my bonds mature this autumn I may jump in. Although of course that makes me a contrary indicator... The earlier low didn't feel like a bottom to me, there was still far too much optimism around, but all the sensible theories depend on a sensible government and that isn't going to happen. In the long run we are all dead, clearly this reflation can only make things worse in the long run but by the time that happens I could well be in my 40s (36 now), and that's way too old to be buying your first flat... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MississippiJohnHurt Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 So is this graph nothing but hot air then?Nobody here can convince me that there's no house price recovery underway when the graph looks like this. No way is it a dead cat or any other kind of cat bounce. That's the crappest graph ever. It's just rate of change. If you do think things will steadily recover, your basic position is that after prices went up by something like 150% since 2001, a 15-20% correction is all that will occur before prices start moving back towards peak. Good luck with that one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webchat Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 That's the crappest graph ever. It's just rate of change. Precisely. The rate of change is still quite negative which means prices are still falling yoy. But they are falling more and more slowly and, in the case of the Nationwide figures, may soon reach a yoy of 0% - in other words the rate of falling will have stopped. Now I grant you, once it goes positive and prices actually start to rise yoy, then we may be in danger of a dead cat bounce, because surely you have to have rising prices first before you can even talk about cats and bounces? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silver lining Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 That's the crappest graph ever. It's just rate of change. If you look at the graph closely, it's slowly developing into a smile. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turnbull2000 Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 That's the crappest graph ever. It's just rate of change. If you do think things will steadily recover, your basic position is that after prices went up by something like 150% since 2001, a 15-20% correction is all that will occur before prices start moving back towards peak. Good luck with that one. I think a 2010 return to 2007 prices supported by low transaction volumes is looking more likely right now than further significant falls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 I think a 2010 return to 2007 prices ^ non-sequitur - please explain v supported by low transaction volumes is looking more likely right now than further significant falls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 Now I grant you, once it goes positive and prices actually start to rise yoy, then we may be in danger of a dead cat bounce, because surely you have to have rising prices first before you can even talk about cats and bounces? mom we have Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfie Moon Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 I think a 2010 return to 2007 prices supported by low transaction volumes is looking more likely right now than further significant falls. Hardly likely with: - rising interest rates - QE tap being turned down/off - galloping unemployment - rising tax bills - massive cuts in services combined with the small rises that have been recorded in a small number of months this year has been in the context of the lowest BoE base rate seen for hundreds of years and massive injections of taxpayers money into the economy via QE ..... which has done nothing to stop transaction levels remaining in a state of collapse (have never moved out of deep crash territory) throughout the year. Much more likely - 2010 will see the return of big falls in house prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turnbull2000 Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 Hardly likely with:- rising interest rates - QE tap being turned down/off - galloping unemployment - rising tax bills - massive cuts in services combined with the small rises that have been recorded in a small number of months this year has been in the context of the lowest BoE base rate seen for hundreds of years and massive injections of taxpayers money into the economy via QE ..... which has done nothing to stop transaction levels remaining in a state of collapse (have never moved out of deep crash territory) throughout the year. Much more likely - 2010 will see the return of big falls in house prices. I doubt rates will be raised anytime soon if there's a threat to house prices. The link between unemployment and prices is proving tenuous at best, repossessions setting prices at the margin like the 90s is being eradicated due to government support and banks hoarding rather than selling. Rising tax bills may be offset by state pressure for new mortgage rates to be reduced, and service cuts won't have any real affect. Supply shortage may also become a real issue this time round as house building has collapsed. I think the government may have been sucessful in propping up prices for a long while yet. I hope I'm wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 I doubt rates will be raised anytime soon if there's a threat to house prices. so what - prices will slide shallower for much much longer then, even worse for house prices Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
babesagainstmachines Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 (edited) The biggest stimulus and money printing exercise in human history has almost stopped house prices from falling, year on year. Whoopee fookin doo. Edited September 10, 2009 by dazednconfused Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MississippiJohnHurt Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 I think a 2010 return to 2007 prices supported by low transaction volumes is looking more likely right now than further significant falls. Really? I don't. I think there's a lot of pent up supply out there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfie Moon Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 I doubt rates will be raised anytime soon if there's a threat to house prices. The link between unemployment and prices is proving tenuous at best, repossessions setting prices at the margin like the 90s is being eradicated due to government support and banks hoarding rather than selling. Rising tax bills may be offset by state pressure for new mortgage rates to be reduced, and service cuts won't have any real affect. Supply shortage may also become a real issue this time round as house building has collapsed.I think the government may have been sucessful in propping up prices for a long while yet. I hope I'm wrong. But the 'support' provided by the Government and the so called 'recovery' it has created lacks any real substance. The increases are tiny in comparison to the falls we witnessed since autumn 2007 and transaction levels have remained in a state of collapse. The so called recovery in price rises are small and fragile and are resting on a foundation of quicksand like transaction levels. Start turning off the stimulants that have created such small rises in prices, been ineffectual in raising transaction levels, add significantly higher levels of unemployment + erosions on peoples incomes via tax levels + sentiment attacked by massive service cuts (senior managers are currently running scared of this in Social, Health and Educational services - try talking to some of them!) and the fragile illusion of any recovery in prices will rapidly evapourate. The only tenuous factor in your list is the 'lack of supply' argument. Rightmove have TV adds running at the moment boasting of having over a million properties for sale listed on their website ...... and Rightmove certainly do not list all the properties for sale in the UK by any stretch of the imagination. To view the ongoing collapse in transaction levels, and reasons why the property market can accurately be described as being in a state of economic depression (ok, perhaps deep recession until the 3 year criteria for 'depression is met - 1 year to go) see the following: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=125006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edi Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 Ugh, the worrying thing for me is not that I think it's possible that prices might rise, but actually that if they do then I'll probably never be able to afford a house at all! If there is no crash then am I destined to be priced out for ever? And if so what do I do, live in a house share for the rest of my life? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quine Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 Ugh, the worrying thing for me is not that I think it's possible that prices might rise, but actually that if they do then I'll probably never be able to afford a house at all! If there is no crash then am I destined to be priced out for ever? And if so what do I do, live in a house share for the rest of my life? Ne panic pas. I'm surprised (well maybe not) to see people stressing because of these small upward blips. The crash has just started for goodness sake. Do you think it's all over?! House prices cannot just go back to where they were before the crash and carry on upwards. It's just not possible. Finish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedebtisreal Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 Now I grant you, once it goes positive and prices actually start to rise yoy, then we may be in danger of a dead cat bounce, because surely you have to have rising prices first before you can even talk about cats and bounces? Or a dead cat bounce that lasts less than a year. Seriously webchat, where did you go to school? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 Ugh, the worrying thing for me is not that I think it's possible that prices might rise, but actually that if they do then I'll probably never be able to afford a house at all! If there is no crash then am I destined to be priced out for ever? And if so what do I do, live in a house share for the rest of my life? you could rent your own place, the bigger the home the better the value - but drive a hard bargain why is there this delusion that it is somehow impossible to rent a place on your own? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boo Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 (edited) Check out the daily express website the ususal "homeowners have reason to cheer" crap Reading the comments though nobody seems convinced Edited September 10, 2009 by boo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTL_and_milking_it Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 Unlikely, you won't be anywhere to be seen - when has a bull ever returned to this site to admit they were wrong? Ok i'll jump in here - i'll admit i was wrong. I was wrong about saying there were intelligent people here with a good understanding of economics. Most of you bears are just poor sad deluded idiots. Last year and early this year i said several times on this forum that property prices would be supported by rental yield at a certain level. which we were very close to at the time. All's this site has done has discouraged FTB members from buying when presented with a glaring buying opportunity, before the current lift in prices. Not all bad news though, 'cos we added another 8 to our portfolio in the last 9 months. Im loving this. I think maybe its time you all packed up and went home, this site has just turned into a support centre for the priced out and have-nots. Still i suppose you don't have a mortgage to pay.... wait a minute you do.. your landlords and mine - of course, your STR funds now generating a punitive amount of interest is subsidising all those buy-to-let mortgages, and therefore paying down our capital - i knew those BR+.99% lifetime trackers would come into their own 1 day. So live in our assets & pay the running costs, pay our mortgage, pay down our capital, and at the end of it all we'll bank the capital gain, now aint that a bitch! Hey thanks guys. You can slaughter the NW/Hali/RM/LR figures as much as you like. House prices are rising, the recession is ending, and the economy is recovering - deal with it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 snipYou can slaughter the NW/Hali/RM/LR figures as much as you like. House prices are rising, the recession is ending, and the economy is recovering - deal with it I would be rejoicing if only it were true. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 Ok i'll jump in here - i'll admit i was wrong. I was wrong about saying there were intelligent people here with a good understanding of economics. Most of you bears are just poor sad deluded idiots.Last year and early this year i said several times on this forum that property prices would be supported by rental yield at a certain level. which we were very close to at the time. All's this site has done has discouraged FTB members from buying when presented with a glaring buying opportunity, before the current lift in prices. Not all bad news though, 'cos we added another 8 to our portfolio in the last 9 months. Im loving this. I think maybe its time you all packed up and went home, this site has just turned into a support centre for the priced out and have-nots. Still i suppose you don't have a mortgage to pay.... wait a minute you do.. your landlords and mine - of course, your STR funds now generating a punitive amount of interest is subsidising all those buy-to-let mortgages, and therefore paying down our capital - i knew those BR+.99% lifetime trackers would come into their own 1 day. So live in our assets & pay the running costs, pay our mortgage, pay down our capital, and at the end of it all we'll bank the capital gain, now aint that a bitch! Hey thanks guys. You can slaughter the NW/Hali/RM/LR figures as much as you like. House prices are rising, the recession is ending, and the economy is recovering - deal with it when this is over - in about 10 years or so - economic winds beyond your comprehension will have swept your wealth away - and you will always wonder how it happened, as the subtleties are clearly so beyond you enjoy your money, for now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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