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silver lining

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About silver lining

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  1. silver lining

    September Halifax +1.6% Mom -7.4% Yoy

    Soon the majority.
  2. silver lining

    September Halifax +1.6% Mom -7.4% Yoy

    1.6% is massive. Never expected that. At this rate we'll be back to peak prices in months.
  3. And we already know that at this level of approvals and current stock levels ~ prices rise.
  4. LLoyds Lloyds have just announced the reopening of the RMBS market. That's a very positive move.
  5. QE money was pumped money into the economy to encourage banks to lend. As the economy recovers, banks will start lending just as they always did. No lending = no profits. Interest rates will climb but slowly. At the same time the current wide spreads will narrow to more traditional levels. It may be a bumpy ride for a while in 2010. But recovery will happen and life will go on. House prices will neither fall or rise significantly.
  6. silver lining

    Halifax +0.8% Mom, -10.1% Yoy

    If you look at the graph closely, it's slowly developing into a smile.
  7. silver lining

    Halifax +0.8% Mom, -10.1% Yoy

    We're approaching a traditionally quieter time of year for the housing market. Sales will inevitably be affected. Stock may rise but there is little evidence of forced selling as govt. intervention is helping to avoid this. IMO there is little prospect for change in the immeditate future and seasonal adjustment to the indices, which has limited house price increases in the spring and summer, will now boost prices for the remainder of the year.
  8. silver lining

    Halifax +0.8% Mom, -10.1% Yoy

    That really is amazing. Although I'm sure DrBubb will have a credible explanation.
  9. silver lining

    Are People Losing Their Jobs?

    People are still losing jobs, but not as many as predicted. Guy on BBC breakfast today saying they've revised their prediction for this recession down from 3.2m to 3.0m.
  10. silver lining

    Nothing Selling - No Reductions Either

    I have seen posts stating EA's only sell one property per month. But I haven't seen any evidence supporting that claim. Chains breaking is an easy claim to make as there is no data to refute it. There are certainly some chains breaking, but I suspect not so many as some would wish.
  11. silver lining

    Nothing Selling - No Reductions Either

    LR changed its format in 2007 IIRC. I don't believe it's available in its current form for 2006. However, the FT house price index uses completion data and that too shows current prices at February 2006 levels.
  12. silver lining

    Nothing Selling - No Reductions Either

    Feb/March 2006 according to Nationwide.
  13. silver lining

    Reuters: Consumer Credit At Record Low

    You're wrong. (Well you did ask to be corrected) It's net mortgage lending that is the minus figure, not lending specifically for house purchase. It would be impossible for mortgage approvals to be 50k and lending for house purchase to be a minus figure. In reality the actual amount lent out purely for house purchase was the highest since April 2008. Something over £6Bn. However, presumably due to low interest rates, many existing borrowers are in a position to pay down their mortgages. And there was more money paid off mortgages than lent out for new mortgages, hence the minus figure.
  14. silver lining

    Darling Predicts End Of Recession

    I think he's right. 100% of previous recessions have resulted in recovery.
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