justanewbie Posted July 12, 2005 Share Posted July 12, 2005 The "standoff" has gone on long enough. Here and there, a price or two has dropped, but generally, sellers are stubbornly holding out for "boom-type" prices. But still, the buyers hang back. Trouble is, many of the sellers have staked everything on house prices going up for ever. Many of them have (or will have) tied up their pensions into property. Now they are getting desperate.... they just *must* keep the whole show going..... they just *won;t* drop the price.... And buyers just *won't* pay the silly prices..... Now it's about to get really messy. Roll on August when the Land Reg figures come out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Once in a lifetime Posted July 12, 2005 Share Posted July 12, 2005 Roll on August when the Land Reg figures come out <{POST_SNAPBACK}> O...yes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smarty Posted July 12, 2005 Share Posted July 12, 2005 Don't forget its on the 6th working day of the month, so i make that Monday the 8th of August. Can't wait Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BandWagon Posted July 12, 2005 Share Posted July 12, 2005 (edited) Don't forget its on the 6th working day of the month, so i make that Monday the 8th of August.Can't wait <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Have you guys noticed in the 80's crash, the whole market went quiet for about 6 months after the boom finished. Just a gentle moment as prices drifted down, then all of a sudden wham! Ok, now part of this was interest rates, but part of it was people realising that prices were going down... Edited July 12, 2005 by BandWagon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBeau Posted July 12, 2005 Share Posted July 12, 2005 Don't forget its on the 6th working day of the month, so i make that Monday the 8th of August.Can't wait <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Due to lack of knowledge...can you explain. Will this be a major turning point for prices? Will the data show lower house prices? If land reg figures have turned v. bearish? is this enough to convince sellers to reduce? I have a friend trying to relocate abroad. Her house will not budge, and the price has only dropped by about £5K...it doesn't matter if I say the market is about to dive....she insists the market is just "stuck", meaning she thinks it will "unstick" itself rather than freefall. As far as I'm concerned "unstick" could be the same as freefall, but she and many of her friends just don't see it that way. Sometimes I doubt wether we can truthfully say that sentiment has changed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justanewbie Posted July 12, 2005 Author Share Posted July 12, 2005 I have a friend trying to relocate abroad. Her house will not budge, and the price has only dropped by about £5K... ================================ If she is not careful, she will start chasing the market down.... A case in point. .. landscape gardener does up flats in the winter... Gloucester.. flat BTL.. vacant .....I was offered it for £110K cash in january.. I refused....it was a pretentious price, pretending to be in a category to which it did not quite belong.... It didn't sell.... then went to £105K in March... still hasn't sold... and I notice that similar properties are now available at around the £95-100K mark..... If he wants to sell it now... and be sure of a sale... he has to price it at £95K. He could have sold at £105 in January... but he was greedy. Now he has lost at least £10K plus the interest. Chase the market down.... Or just drop to a sensible figure ..... Or stay put. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BandWagon Posted July 12, 2005 Share Posted July 12, 2005 Due to lack of knowledge...can you explain. Will this be a major turning point for prices? Will the data show lower house prices?<{POST_SNAPBACK}> The housing market kept booming up till around the end of July last year, then from about August the prices have been drifting down. Most statistics are showing a rolling average of the past year, so although prices have been falling (albeit gently), the figures from Halifax and Nationwide etc are still showing price rises. Now what happens in August this year is that the last of the inflation from last year moves out of the Year-on-year figures. The effect of this is that the numbers will start to go negative. Now we're interested in this effect because it's from this time on that Joe Public will start to read in the general media that prices are falling, and it's the effect of that that we are all waiting to see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sp1 Posted July 12, 2005 Share Posted July 12, 2005 Aug 8 eh? definatley a day for the diary along with the FOMC FED rate desicion in the US... When the pound should roll down pressuring the BoE even more. We will be at just 1.25 % above US base rate then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Bart of Darkness Posted July 12, 2005 Share Posted July 12, 2005 I tend to compare this current period with the "Phoney War" of WWII. ‘Phoney War’ is the name given to the period of time in World War Two from September 1939 to April 1940 when, after the blitzkrieg attack on Poland in September 1939, seemingly nothing happened. Many in Great Britain expected a major calamity – but the title ‘Phoney War’ summarises what happened in Western Europe – near enough nothing. The Germans referred to it as ‘Sitzkrieg’ – 'sitting war'. Stiff upper lip chaps, the balloon is about to go up! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ianbeale Posted July 12, 2005 Share Posted July 12, 2005 The squeeze should start to come on very soon once these YOY figures all start turning red. Hopefully we will see a good old stampede going once the sellers start chasing the market down. We are already starting to see a few get agitated and putting in 10k cuts. Like cattle the rest will charge after the leaders, if somewhat reluctantly at first. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delite1 Posted July 12, 2005 Share Posted July 12, 2005 Aug 8 eh? definatley a day for the diary along with the FOMC FED rate desicion in the US...When the pound should roll down pressuring the BoE even more. We will be at just 1.25 % above US base rate then. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> The BOE may lower our rates by then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portent Posted July 12, 2005 Share Posted July 12, 2005 I still expect the Land registry figures to rise. That doesn't mean that house prices are rising. What it means is that the lower rung of the "ladder" is no longer selling and the figures are distorted by the expensive upper rung. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dicky Posted July 12, 2005 Share Posted July 12, 2005 The "standoff" has gone on long enough.Here and there, a price or two has dropped, but generally, sellers are stubbornly holding out for "boom-type" prices. But still, the buyers hang back. Trouble is, many of the sellers have staked everything on house prices going up for ever. Many of them have (or will have) tied up their pensions into property. Now they are getting desperate.... they just *must* keep the whole show going..... they just *won;t* drop the price.... And buyers just *won't* pay the silly prices..... Now it's about to get really messy. Roll on August when the Land Reg figures come out <{POST_SNAPBACK}> But I read somewhere the average mortgage is £430 a month and takes 20% of household income, the way I see it IR would have to rise to 7/8% for a crash to happen if these findings are to be believed. Forced sellers are not going to happen overnight if the job market remains stable and IR stay put or start falling. What do others think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starcrossed Posted July 12, 2005 Share Posted July 12, 2005 But I read somewhere the average mortgage is £430 a month and takes 20% of household income, the way I see it IR would have to rise to 7/8% for a crash to happen if these findings are to be believed.Forced sellers are not going to happen overnight if the job market remains stable and IR stay put or start falling. What do others think. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> My hunch on that, Dicky, is that if 20% of ALL household income is spent on the mortgage then there are a large number at the margins that spend a lot more. These are at risk of being forced sellers at some stage. And it is these people that would set the future price for others. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oracle Posted July 12, 2005 Share Posted July 12, 2005 20% spent on mortgage ...probably another 20% on unsecured debt = 40% take home pay on debt repayment........pure madness! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erd Posted July 12, 2005 Share Posted July 12, 2005 My hunch on that, Dicky, is that if 20% of ALL household income is spent on the mortgage then there are a large number at the margins that spend a lot more. These are at risk of being forced sellers at some stage. And it is these people that would set the future price for others.<{POST_SNAPBACK}> On average, ie everyone with a mortgage, including those who have had one for 20 years. I wonder what the average is for those ftbs in the last 2 years, take that figure and it will be more scary for future generations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kinesin Posted July 12, 2005 Share Posted July 12, 2005 On average, ie everyone with a mortgage, including those who have had one for 20 years. I wonder what the average is for those ftbs in the last 2 years, take that figure and it will be more scary for future generations.<{POST_SNAPBACK}> I looked at mortgage in Jan.. and HSBC were willing to offer a mortgage with payments been upto 60% of take home (+ insurance, life/building etc ontop). They needed to be that high to for 25year 120K mortgage. Others are willing to push to 70% of take home.. After tax/bills etc there is nothing left.. The average is low.. I imagine the baby boomers are paying > £100/month to fund the last couple of years of there mortgage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Time 2 raise Interest Rates Posted July 12, 2005 Share Posted July 12, 2005 But I read somewhere the average mortgage is £430 a month and takes 20% of household income, the way I see it IR would have to rise to 7/8% for a crash to happen if these findings are to be believed.Forced sellers are not going to happen overnight if the job market remains stable and IR stay put or start falling. What do others think. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Dicky With regards to the state of the job market remaining stable, I can quote Alex Patelis, head of G10 forex strategist at Merrill Lynch, he said this week that unemployment was rising at its fastest rate since the last recession. Another 2 months and the VIs will be running out of ammo fast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oracle Posted July 12, 2005 Share Posted July 12, 2005 Dicky   With regards to the state of the job market remaining stable, I can quote Alex Patelis, head of G10 forex strategist at Merrill Lynch, he said this week that unemployment was rising at its fastest rate since the last recession.     Another 2 months and the VIs will be running out of ammo fast.<{POST_SNAPBACK}> ...music to my ears,TTRTR! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Time 2 raise Interest Rates Posted July 12, 2005 Share Posted July 12, 2005 ...music to my ears,TTRTR!<{POST_SNAPBACK}> Noooo! TTRIR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
29929BlackTuesday Posted July 12, 2005 Share Posted July 12, 2005 I tend to compare this current period with the "Phoney War" of WWII.‘Phoney War’ is the name given to the period of time in World War Two from September 1939 to April 1940 when, after the blitzkrieg attack on Poland in September 1939, seemingly nothing happened. Many in Great Britain expected a major calamity – but the title ‘Phoney War’ summarises what happened in Western Europe – near enough nothing. The Germans referred to it as ‘Sitzkrieg’ – 'sitting war'. Stiff upper lip chaps, the balloon is about to go up! <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Yes! Made an identical comparison some time ago - but without your erudite flow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mbga9pgf Posted July 12, 2005 Share Posted July 12, 2005 20% spent on mortgage ...probably another 20% on unsecured debt = 40% take home pay on debt repayment........pure madness! Figure is actually 44%, check on the halifax website, you can donload data. Last crash saw peaks of 60%, but there was a much lower burden from taxes then as well... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Bart of Darkness Posted July 12, 2005 Share Posted July 12, 2005 Yes! Made an identical comparison some time ago - but without your erudite flow. I'm taking tablets for that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichM Posted July 12, 2005 Share Posted July 12, 2005 I'm taking tablets for that. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> My brother in law is a urologist, if that's helpful. Don't worry, I 'm not taking the piss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Charlie The Tramp Posted July 12, 2005 Share Posted July 12, 2005 My brother in law is a urologist, if that's helpful.<{POST_SNAPBACK}> Surely not the forum member Uro Who. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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