The Slow Grind: If It Takes Another 8 Years To Reach 50% Off 2007 Peak Prices

[brucespanner]

Can't stand to wait another 8 years - even 2 seems too long.

I'll be 40 this year, and though I don't have any problem at all with renting, the neighbourhood we're in now seems to be going steadily downhill...

I'm not concerned about spotting the absolute nadir of the market, but I loathe debt and there's no way I can buy a decent property without what I would consider a hefty mortgate (probably 60-80k).

Give it another year and I think I won't be able to resist any longer.

Mate, 80k is nothing. That will be inflated away in no time.

[cybernoid]

I can see nominal price falls continuing, we won't return to the levels of stupid lending again for a long time and right now they are still unaffordable. QE in my opinion is storing up inflation and it seems sensible to me to wait a year just to see what else happens. I can't see this recent apparent rise continuing, it just isn't possible without the availability of credit.

The sweet spot will obviously be after most of the nominal price falls and before wage inflation. QE is being pursued to transfer wealth from cash holders to debtors. Not buying before that wealth transfer takes effect is a mistake. You will have to get into assets (houses for most of us) or lose your money to the feckless. Its what QE was meant to do and it will work. They will keep printing until it does.

I too am considering emigrating, but for now Im watching to see what happens. If I do buy it will not be in some housing estate due to the dangers of the obvious social problems that are coming. If I can't afford to buy away from the marauding hordes I will have no choice but to emigrate... I didn't work hard and save this money to live in a hell hole.

[Fairies Wear Boots]

I can see nominal price falls continuing, we won't return to the levels of stupid lending again for a long time and right now they are still unaffordable. QE in my opinion is storing up inflation and it seems sensible to me to wait a year just to see what else happens. I can't see this recent apparent rise continuing, it just isn't possible without the availability of credit.

The sweet spot will obviously be after most of the nominal price falls and before wage inflation. QE is being pursued to transfer wealth from cash holders to debtors. Not buying before that wealth transfer takes effect is a mistake. You will have to get into assets (houses for most of us) or lose your money to the feckless. Its what QE was meant to do and it will work. They will keep printing until it does.

I too am considering emigrating, but for now Im watching to see what happens. If I do buy it will not be in some housing estate due to the dangers of the obvious social problems that are coming. If I can't afford to buy away from the marauding hordes I will have no choice but to emigrate... I didn't work hard and save this money to live in a hell hole.

That's quite interesting. I see nominal drops continuing too. If inflation rears it's ugly head which is what queasing is likely to do, then they will have to raise rates and that will lead to a great slide in prices due to purchasers wanting more for their money as they have to pay more in interest and more repos. After all, inflation will mainly be in goods and services. We aren't going to see much wage inflation are we?

[wealthy]

Not that long. Repo's will be up next year - will go to auction if I want something.

[RentingForever]

One third of my team got made redundant this week. Until the economic crisis is over I need to stay flexible and my funds liquid. So my house deposit fund is now my emergency fund.

When I'm convinced my career is relatively safe, and mortgage repayments on a house are down to the equivalent of what I pay in rent, then I'll buy. If neither happens, I'm sticking with renting.

[AvidFan]

Why bother worrying. Houses will continue to fall - even if inflation picks up they'll stagnate. I reckon you'll be able to get a "real" gain on prices YoY of between 5% and 10% for a few years yet.

The worst predictions of an 8-year grind down to 50% levels and 70% in real terms may be right if you look at the overlay of the "typical bubble" on the housing market assuming 89-92 is the initial interest and sell off. That's a HUGE bubble that spans 2 decades already and even an 8-year sell off looks suitably "sharp" when all 30 years of the market are plotted on a graph.

If they get the economy restarted with super-lax monetary policy, peak oil kicks in and lending breaks out - remember there's that ominous period around 2015 when one new unit of debt produces no GDP growth (is that a deflationary depression or hyperinflation???) then we'll still have seen 1/3rd off within the next few years IMHO.

I'm not bothered now - I quite like the idea of living in a van or buying some land and pitching a tent. Seriously.

My life is largely over now. All the years I should have spent earning and building a family have gone. It's just my 40's and beyond I have to look forward to now - not. This housing bubble has completely destroyed my life.

Edited August 14, 2009 by AvidFan

[cybernoid]

Let me put it another way. I own a house and I'd rather keep it until I died before selling it cheap. About every other homeowner feels the same.

Fine. There's plenty of old house owners who are about to die, you think their cash strapped off spring who have just lost their jobs are going to hold onto this house they inherited so they can pay bills on it each month? They'll sell it, and they'll sell it for the most they can get for it. And that won't be much.

When people like you die everyone will be celebrating.

[houseofusher]

When people like you die everyone will be celebrating.

thats a bit harsh, to say the least. They may say the same about our generation cybernoid, after you prudence (if you play it right) in house buying turns to gloating, then outright greed. You may end up being worse than the people you have such disdain for.

Dont hate the player, hate the game.

[Super Mario]

When people like you die everyone will be celebrating.

Steady on there fella.

[pie-eater]

Let me put it another way. I own a house and I'd rather keep it until I died before selling it cheap. About every other homeowner feels the same.

No they don't - foolish post, again.

I was looking to buy 6 months ago and stopped, to STR 3 months ago (broke even). Loads of the houses I looked at were bought at peak and sold for a loss. One seller was honest and said he stood to lose nigh on £100k but just needed to move and the hit was part of life. Fair play to him.

Many people just accept they lose and move on if they can afford to.

Personally, I'm looking to buy right at the end of this year - mid '10. It'll be a 10+ year house with a big deposit, AND be a home, not a profit maker. If I lose in the time I'm there, so be it.

Life goes on, and a house should be a home.

[bajista]

I own a house and I'd rather keep it until I died before selling it cheap. About every other homeowner feels the same.

There are say 30m households. In a normal market 5% changes hands per year = 1.5m. About 700k people die per year so effectively half the market turnover will be down to death.

Does that mean that you think that 50% of sellers will be happy to sell cheap Sibbers?

[puppee]

for me its about getting the right property for the right price if it goes down in value after that i don't care just want a decent sized bungalow with a bigger garden, what its worth when i die does matter as i won't be able to give a s**t then would i, its all about value for money not how much profit i can make thats where it all went t*ts up

[Giordano Bruno]

It seems to me that after the little burst of House Price Deflation, a long slower grind in prices seem to be the likely future, a la Japan.

If that is the case, how long would you wait to buy? Could you see out another eight years to buy at the bottom, or would you buy in four and take what you can.

Do you have time on your side? What are your personal circumstances?

Interested in the forums thoughts on this.

Edited: For appalling grammar.

I agree with the hypothesis. I believe that it will take 8 years to reach 50% off peak.

I will wait. I will rent until then, as I am doing at the moment. I will probably be able to buy a cheap place in an area where prices are less. I will be retired by then, although probably working as a free-lance 3d modeller and artist, I hope.

[Dopamine]

My life is largely over now. All the years I should have spent earning and building a family have gone. It's just my 40's and beyond I have to look forward to now - not. This housing bubble has completely destroyed my life.

Don't let it do that. The most meaningful stuff is between your ears.

[InternationalRockSuperstar]

The Slow Grind: If It Takes Another 8 Years To Reach 50% Off 2007 Peak Prices, How long are you personally willing to wait?

surely you buy whenever it gets cheaper than renting (taking into acount depreciation etc).

[Selling up]

My life is largely over now.

In your 30s / 40s? Are you crazy?

All the years I should have spent earning and building a family have gone.

Well, okay, if you're female and 40 I grant you that your reproductive choices are now substantially diminished. If you're male then you're talking rubbish.

It's just my 40's and beyond I have to look forward to now - not.

WTF is wrong with being in your 40s?

This housing bubble has completely destroyed my life.

This housing bubble may have made certain desirable opportunities unavailable for you. However if you are blaming the housing boom for the sense of failure you seem to attach to your whole life, can I suggest that your problems run deeper than happening to live in a time of high house prices.

[Snow Birds]

A long slow decline would probably shut us out of the market completely. If we can't reasonably expect to sell at the same price or better we would rather not buy at all. So we will be watching the markets very closely over this fall and winter and if there is no big drop and the long slow decline is underway we will start to lose interest. Probably off topic but to us the presence of, or absence of chavs is a major buying influence. We read a lot about them on this forum and other places but on our visits to England we haven't encountered them. If an area has chav problems we don't care how low the price is, we simply won't buy there.

[SleepyHead]

I'll buy when I can afford it.

3.5 x salary + 20% deposit

If prices don't come down enough, or wages up enough, I won't buy.