Dorkins Posted September 3, 2009 Share Posted September 3, 2009 Guess where it's going to crash the most? Even more so given that the England and Wales numbers have been dragged up by the London&SE superbubble... This also happened in the Japanese crash, where the biggest cities rose higher and fell further than the country as a whole. Source: Land Registry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confounded Posted September 4, 2009 Author Share Posted September 4, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted September 5, 2009 Share Posted September 5, 2009 A new offering from the Market Ticker It illustrates nicely how US non-mortgage debt has got out of hand over the last 15 years. It really is frightening just how much some institutions were prepared to lend and some people were prepared to borrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bootsox Posted September 6, 2009 Share Posted September 6, 2009 This is a project I have been running for a little while and is a study of re-sale prices for a block of newish build flats called Magellan House (near the Royal Armouries, Leeds). I have updated the data, based on recent sales, and it is presented in tabulated and graphical form. The colour scheme for the table is a bit notional, on my part, but red represents loss or marginal gain on re-sale and blue a gain. Magellan_House_sale_prices_table.pdf Magellan_House_sale_prices_graph.pdf Magellan_House_sale_prices_table.pdf Magellan_House_sale_prices_graph.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lambs to the slaughter Posted September 8, 2009 Share Posted September 8, 2009 Source: BOE data Now I wonder why they are reluctant to lend any more?? New figures out the end of this month and I wonder which way they will be going? Never mind, we can always print some more Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confounded Posted September 8, 2009 Author Share Posted September 8, 2009 Consumer led recovery in the US? http://www.zerohedge.com/article/consumer-...wth-says-enough A record plunge in consumer credit, and the American middle class has just given the new and improved Obama-endorsed "spend spend spend" recovery and confidence plan the middle finger. $6.1 billion decline in revolving credit, and a $15.4 billion drop in non revolving credit, on a $4 billion expected decline! June's decline was revised downward to a $15.6 billion reduction in credit. Someone please spin how a record consumer retrenching is in any way benficial to America's GDP. Yet TradeBot and HAL9000 have largely priced in this $17 billion miss to consensus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted September 9, 2009 Share Posted September 9, 2009 Is there a link....flabby minds.... Were the Japanese fat in the period around 1990? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvidFan Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 Marc Faber and Frank Holmes did a presentation in early September for usfunds. Document too large to upload. Plenty of graphs in it though: http://webcast.streamlogics.com.edgesuite....ank_FaberWC.PDF Download a copy and store it away for posterity! Anyone want to extract a few interesting ones and post them here, please do so! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElPapasito Posted September 12, 2009 Share Posted September 12, 2009 (edited) Marc Faber and Frank Holmes did a presentation in early September for usfunds.Document too large to upload. Plenty of graphs in it though: http://webcast.streamlogics.com.edgesuite....ank_FaberWC.PDF Download a copy and store it away for posterity! Anyone want to extract a few interesting ones and post them here, please do so! Page 7: Clearly compared to the 1930s it IS different this time Edit: mis-upload Edited September 12, 2009 by ElPapasito Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElPapasito Posted September 12, 2009 Share Posted September 12, 2009 Marc Faber and Frank Holmes did a presentation in early September for usfunds.Document too large to upload. Plenty of graphs in it though: http://webcast.streamlogics.com.edgesuite....ank_FaberWC.PDF Download a copy and store it away for posterity! Anyone want to extract a few interesting ones and post them here, please do so! Page 9: Recent rally a bit of a squib considering global unpredented monetary action Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElPapasito Posted September 12, 2009 Share Posted September 12, 2009 Marc Faber and Frank Holmes did a presentation in early September for usfunds.Document too large to upload. Plenty of graphs in it though: http://webcast.streamlogics.com.edgesuite....ank_FaberWC.PDF Download a copy and store it away for posterity! Anyone want to extract a few interesting ones and post them here, please do so! Page 17: Some good news! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElPapasito Posted September 12, 2009 Share Posted September 12, 2009 Marc Faber and Frank Holmes did a presentation in early September for usfunds.Document too large to upload. Plenty of graphs in it though: http://webcast.streamlogics.com.edgesuite....ank_FaberWC.PDF Download a copy and store it away for posterity! Anyone want to extract a few interesting ones and post them here, please do so! Page 21: Oh dear, in UK for next five years of living has already been borrowed upon and consumed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confounded Posted September 13, 2009 Author Share Posted September 13, 2009 Page 21: Oh dear, in UK for next five years of living has already been borrowed upon and consumed Some great charts, thanks for posting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tired of Waiting Posted September 13, 2009 Share Posted September 13, 2009 (edited) UK - FTB Vs BTL First time buyers taking half of all mortgages in Britain!? Yes, in 1999. But at the peak, in 2007, they were down to 25%. ( page 11 at www.housepricecrash.co.uk/pdf/abn-amro-home-truths-04042007.pdf ) chart_FTB.bmp chart_FTB.bmp Edited September 13, 2009 by Tired of waiting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tired of Waiting Posted September 13, 2009 Share Posted September 13, 2009 (edited) Dear Confounded, I have uploaded a chart to the site you've suggested, and inserted a link to a "thumbnail" in a message here, but I got an ERROR message here, saying that housepricecrash does not accept links to that site. Any advise? Cheers. I got: "You have entered a link to a website that the administrator does not allow links to" Edited September 13, 2009 by Tired of waiting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tired of Waiting Posted September 13, 2009 Share Posted September 13, 2009 Will rents go down, and Buy To Let crash in London soon? The Prime London (PL) stock of homes to let has almost trebled in the past 2 years, according to Primelocation. I'll try to put the chart below. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confounded Posted September 13, 2009 Author Share Posted September 13, 2009 Dear Confounded, I have uploaded a chart to the site you've suggested, and inserted a link to a "thumbnail" in a message here, but I got an ERROR message here, saying that housepricecrash does not accept links to that site. Any advise? Cheers.I got: "You have entered a link to a website that the administrator does not allow links to" Did you sort it out? I see you posted an interesting chart below. I think London rents are going to take a hammering over the next few years and this is a pretty ominous sign. if not you have to be posting somthing that ends in .jpg or .gif like this but without the star in the first image tag [*img]http://img197.imageshack.us/img197/1774/bulltraps2.jpg[/img] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tired of Waiting Posted September 14, 2009 Share Posted September 14, 2009 Did you sort it out?I see you posted an interesting chart below. I think London rents are going to take a hammering over the next few years and this is a pretty ominous sign. if not you have to be posting somthing that ends in .jpg or .gif like this but without the star in the first image tag [*img]http://img197.imageshack.us/img197/1774/bulltraps2.jpg[/img] Yes! Thank you. I figured out that I had to click "Insert Image", instead of "Insert Link", and that I should then paste the whole address of the "Direct link to image" It worked. Thanks. Yes, I did find that chart very very interesting. They don't explain their methodology, so we can't be sure it is accurate. But -IF- it is, then this will bring some serious falls in rents. To predict how much, we would have to know the "price elasticity" of rents there (as economics calls it). Any chart about that around? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tired of Waiting Posted September 14, 2009 Share Posted September 14, 2009 (edited) "But Britain is a crowded island!"... ... has been a common popular argument to explain high housing costs. However, countries with population densities similar (Germany) or greater (Japan, Netherlands) did not have housing costs increases similar to Britain, if at all. (Source: ABM AMRO report, April 2007.) (Besides, even in the USA people prefer to live in high density areas, such as New York, LA, Chicago, Miami, etc.) Edited September 14, 2009 by Tired of waiting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confounded Posted September 14, 2009 Author Share Posted September 14, 2009 "But Britain is a crowded island!"...... has been a common popular argument to explain high housing costs. However, countries with population densities similar (Germany) or greater (Japan, Netherlands) did not have housing costs increases similar to Britain, if at all. (Source: ABM AMRO report, April 2007.) (Besides, even in the USA people prefer to live in high density areas, such as New York, LA, Chicago, Miami, etc.) I read the ABM Amro report when it first came out, one of the best reports of any I have read, exposing myth after myth. If you did not want to waste the many hours than many of us posters do on this site you realy only need to read that report to tell you all you need to know, then walk away and wait. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted September 14, 2009 Share Posted September 14, 2009 I read the ABM Amro report when it first came out, one of the best reports of any I have read, exposing myth after myth. If you did not want to waste the many hours than many of us posters do on this site you realy only need to read that report to tell you all you need to know, then walk away and wait. I'm guessing RBS did not read it as part of their due diligence... Always thought that was ironic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tired of Waiting Posted September 14, 2009 Share Posted September 14, 2009 I read the ABM Amro report when it first came out, one of the best reports of any I have read, exposing myth after myth. If you did not want to waste the many hours than many of us posters do on this site you realy only need to read that report to tell you all you need to know, then walk away and wait. Exactly. A very good, and very clear report. And Timm is right re. RBS total lack of due diligence. It was very ironic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confounded Posted September 14, 2009 Author Share Posted September 14, 2009 I'm guessing RBS did not read it as part of their due diligence...Always thought that was ironic. Thought the same at the time. It was a bit like when HSBC sold their London Office at the peak of the commercial property boom to the Spanish, 2 years later they were down £400million on the deal, it will teach them for thinking they know more about the economic directions than the banksters! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBTOUSA Posted September 15, 2009 Share Posted September 15, 2009 US mortgage equity withdrawal and growth of US GDP with and without the impact of MEW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted September 16, 2009 Share Posted September 16, 2009 (edited) US mortgage equity withdrawal and growth of US GDP with and without the impact of MEW. If I am reading the 'GDP with and without MEW' one right, US GDP had a boost of about 20% due to MEW?! So if people now have to pay back all the MEW, there is a 20% of GDP contraction already in the pipeline... And that's not even counting all the personal loans, credit cards, and government debt that wants paying too! GDP contracted by about 30% during the Great Depression, for comparison. I can't believe they're trying to spin this as being over. Edit: Honestly it would be so much better if governments stopped all this QE/ZIRP nonsense, put interest rates back to something normal like 5 or 6%, and let the defaults come. The pain is coming anyway, but better to have it out in 3 or 4 rough years rather than 20 slow, grinding ones. Kind of the economic equivalent of a tactical chunder. Edited September 16, 2009 by bearly legal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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