Realistbear Posted June 19, 2009 Share Posted June 19, 2009 (edited) http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbys...ding-falls.html By Myra Butterworth Published: 6:35PM BST 18 Jun 2009 CML cautious on house prices as lending falls House prices will not see a significant recovery in the coming months, the Council of Mortgage Lenders has warned, as figures show mortgage lending dropped further last month...CML said mortgage numbers fell a further 2pc in May, following a decline of 9pc in the preceding month.... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbys...of-England.html Real estate lending 'close to zero', says Bank of England Banks made virtually no new loans to real estate companies in April and May, according to the Bank of England, revealing for the first time the extent of the funding crisis facing the industry. By Richard "Dickie"Tyler Published: 4:05PM BST 18 Jun 2009 The Bank also said that lending to all businesses fell by its biggest amount in nearly nine years in April and that high street lenders had reported this trend had continued in May. Mortgage approvals by major UK lenders picked up to 45,000 in May, from 42,100 in April, the Bank's Trends in Lending report showed. The rising level of unemployment (lagging indicator) points to a further drop in house prices of a severe magnitude long before winter and the long dark nights set in. Edited June 19, 2009 by Realistbear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonToManchester Posted June 19, 2009 Share Posted June 19, 2009 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbys...ding-falls.html By Myra Butterworth Published: 6:35PM BST 18 Jun 2009 CML cautious on house prices as lending falls House prices will not see a significant recovery in the coming months, the Council of Mortgage Lenders has warned, as figures show mortgage lending dropped further last month...CML said mortgage numbers fell a further 2pc in May, following a decline of 9pc in the preceding month.... The rising level of unemployment (lagging indicator) points to a further drop in house prices of a severe magnitude long before winter and the long dark nights set in. Hey where have you been! Hiding since the recovery started! Are you one of the bears that has bought? come on be honest. Anyway we did this yesterday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted June 19, 2009 Author Share Posted June 19, 2009 Hey where have you been! Hiding since the recovery started! Are you one of the bears that has bought? come on be honest.Anyway we did this yesterday I am in the finishing stages of seeing a demerger and multiple new aquisition go through! Busy as an EA on a Saturday morning in the Spring of 2004! Recovery? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sybil13 Posted June 19, 2009 Share Posted June 19, 2009 See Here Discussed Yesterday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Willy Weasel Posted June 19, 2009 Share Posted June 19, 2009 (edited) Good to see you back, RB. I suspect like most of us hardcore bears he has not been posting on the forum as much as our predictions have come to pass. It has been necessary to present a counterpoint to the Bull***t (I now understand how appropriate that term is ) RB, the phrase "Show me the money!" sums this up nicely. No money - no recovereh. Edit:spelling Edited June 19, 2009 by Willy Weasel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonToManchester Posted June 19, 2009 Share Posted June 19, 2009 I am in the finishing stages of seeing a demerger and multiple new aquisition go through! Busy as an EA on a Saturday morning in the Spring of 2004!Recovery? Dude did you miss the >2% increase last month? Plus job losses are not as bad as people feared they would be. Better still inflation is falling which means low rates will be around for a while longer! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posted June 19, 2009 Share Posted June 19, 2009 RB, the phrase "Show me the money!" sums this up nicely. No money - no recovereh. So you just gloss over the fact that lending for new purchases was up in may, for the 5th month in a row...... And is now higher than at any time since and including August last year. Nice. Denial..... Not just a river in Egypt..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable Posted June 19, 2009 Share Posted June 19, 2009 Dude did you miss the >2% increase last month? Plus job losses are not as bad as people feared they would be. Better still inflation is falling which means low rates will be around for a while longer! However, you appear to have run out of suicidal cocks to keep the pyramid scam going. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Willy Weasel Posted June 19, 2009 Share Posted June 19, 2009 So you just gloss over the fact that lending for new purchases was up in may, for the 5th month in a row...... And is now higher than at any time since and including August last year.Nice. Denial..... Not just a river in Egypt..... No need to gloss over it. The continuing low level of approvals for house purchase shows the market is miles away from equilibrium. You need some water for those green shoots. Unfortunately, the credit market is as dry as a nun's nasty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted June 19, 2009 Author Share Posted June 19, 2009 So you just gloss over the fact that lending for new purchases was up in may, for the 5th month in a row...... And is now higher than at any time since and including August last year.Nice. Denial..... Not just a river in Egypt..... "CML cautious on house prices as lending falls House prices will not see a significant recovery in the coming months, the Council of Mortgage Lenders has warned, as figures show mortgage lending dropped further last month...CML said mortgage numbers fell a further 2pc in May, following a decline of 9pc in the preceding month...." "All the time lending is falling it is not rising." (Tautologous Tim) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonToManchester Posted June 19, 2009 Share Posted June 19, 2009 However, you appear to have run out of suicidal cocks to keep the pyramid scam going. Personal attack the best you can do Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable Posted June 19, 2009 Share Posted June 19, 2009 So you just gloss over the fact that lending for new purchases was up in may, for the 5th month in a row...... And is now higher than at any time since and including August last year.Nice. Denial..... Not just a river in Egypt..... Volumes up a bit, loan value down 30% YoY. As I was telling your wife before I passed her to the postman for a go this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable Posted June 19, 2009 Share Posted June 19, 2009 Personal attack the best you can do You can't educate a wilfully irritating idiot, Mr Lawz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted June 19, 2009 Author Share Posted June 19, 2009 (edited) CML cautious on house prices as lending falls House prices will not see a significant recovery in the coming months, the Council of Mortgage Lenders has warned, as figures show mortgage lending dropped further last month...CML said mortgage numbers fell a further 2pc in May, following a decline of 9pc in the preceding month.... Its odd that the Bulls think the opposite? Denial in the face of a VI's own stats is odd. Best to sit back, pick up a Monte Cristo and a wee dram of Glen Morangie (green) and enjoy the rest of the crash. Then, in about 2012 we can all go bargain hunting for a house. Now, what could be better than that? You know it makes sense. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8078914.stm UK unemployment is rising faster in this recession than at anytime since the 1980s, according to official figures. BBC News is keeping track of reported job losses and creations. Edited June 19, 2009 by Realistbear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eric pebble Posted June 19, 2009 Share Posted June 19, 2009 Let's face it! Not so many people are being suckered into taking out LIAR LOANS!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliveandkicking Posted June 19, 2009 Share Posted June 19, 2009 (edited) So you just gloss over the fact that lending for new purchases was up in may, for the 5th month in a row...... And is now higher than at any time since and including August last year.Nice. Denial..... Not just a river in Egypt..... Hamish you seem to be the one glossing over the remortgage figures. If fewer are remortgaging it means less money gets released into the economy to support consumer spending. It means fewer jobs and less mechanism to support a service based econonomy that relies on this *income* from property leaking out into the economy. You make some good points and i agree alot of what is said on boards like this can be rubbish but these CML figures dont look good to me. Year 2000 119,798 2001 160,123 2002 220,734 2003 277,338 2004 291,221 2005 287,921 2006 345,332 2007 363,538 2008 259,649 Quarter 2006 Q1 74,024 Q2 85,931 Q3 92,996 Q4 92,371 2007 Q1 83,844 Q2 93,846 Q3 98,631 Q4 87,217 2008 Q1 75,182 Q2 74,893 Q3 62,500 Q4 47,074 2009 Q1 33,294 Month 2008 May 24,696 Jun 23,843 Jul 24,945 Aug 19,868 Sep 17,687 Oct 19,046 Nov 14,342 Dec 13,686 2009 Jan 11,798 Feb 10,004 Mar 11,492 Apr 10,528 Mayest 10,300 I am not sure who publishes this magazine but there take on the data is not good either http://www.mortgageintroducer.com/mortgage...ending_down.htm Edited June 19, 2009 by aliveandkicking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posted June 19, 2009 Share Posted June 19, 2009 CML said mortgage numbers fell a further 2pc in May, following a decline of 9pc in the preceding month...."[/i]"All the time lending is falling it is not rising." (Tautologous Tim) You understand that beyond the headline figure, lending is split into lending for purchase (which is up, not down) and lending for remortgage (which is down). Lending for purchase is the only thing that impacts prices. And it is up. By 6% month on month, up 5 months in a row, and higher now than at any time since (and including) last August. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posted June 19, 2009 Share Posted June 19, 2009 Hamish you seem to be the one glossing over the remortgage figures. If fewer are remortgaging it means less money gets released into the economy to support consumer spending. It means fewer jobs and less mechanism to support a service based econonomy that relies on this *income* from property leaking out into the economy. And yet the recession is ending anyway. But again, don't confuse MEW with remortgage. Remortgaging is replacing one deal with another at the end of term. There is no need to do that at the moment as SVR rates are better than discount deals for millions of people. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
watcher Posted June 19, 2009 Share Posted June 19, 2009 Dude did you miss the >2% increase last month? Plus job losses are not as bad as people feared they would be. Better still inflation is falling which means low rates will be around for a while longer! Falling inflation may not be a good thing. We may be entering a deflationary spiral. This usually happens during a credit contraction because people have less money to spend. Deflation may be the indication that we are now about to enter a more severe phase of the downturn - DEPRESSION! The fact that inflation is falling despite "Quantative Easing" shows how severe the downturn is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliveandkicking Posted June 19, 2009 Share Posted June 19, 2009 And yet the recession is ending anyway. But again, don't confuse MEW with remortgage. Remortgaging is replacing one deal with another at the end of term. There is no need to do that at the moment as SVR rates are better than discount deals for millions of people. Currently CML data suggest lending activity to be at 2000-2001 levels? Interest rates are incredibly low. A minor recovery will mean a minor recovery in interest rates upwards. Yes we are seeing that already but what will happen to all these people on SVR as the rates trundle higher? Mew probably fed the consumer economy that fed the legitimate applications for property and a chunk of the other applications were liar loans. The consumer psychology of living off house price gains is still intact for many but it cannot create a meaningful recovery while the rest of the world is also simultaneously struggling. 'W' comes to mind at the moment. Already these articles from CML and other industry groups are more or less saying 'hey! nothing much is going to happen for a while yet - the fundamentals of lending are getting worse still. Dont even count on a written mortgage advance agreement unless you examine the small print - most can be pulled at the last moment and were only there to attract better customers but the rest will be weeded out once completion looks likely - you face ruin if you exchange contracts before ensuring finance is available beyond what you would have been required to do in recent years' Does that sound positive to you?? Over in the USA i saw today the case of a repossessed house receiving 61 offers from over 50 different buyers because the price was so low. in the end the lender took a cheap cash offer because the money was there and ready to go rather than offers almost 100,000 higher. What does that suggest to you?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eric pebble Posted June 20, 2009 Share Posted June 20, 2009 ........./Does that sound positive to you?? Over in the USA i saw today the case of a repossessed house receiving 61 offers from over 50 different buyers because the price was so low. in the end the lender took a cheap cash offer because the money was there and ready to go rather than offers almost 100,000 higher. What does that suggest to you?? Ignore McTwat. He's just a little kid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carrera Posted June 20, 2009 Share Posted June 20, 2009 Let's face it! Not so many people are being suckered into taking outLIAR LOANS!! Most liar loans I know of came with a rate of 6% interest or thereabouts - my mate had one from HBOS (fast track self cert) and that expires in Feb 2010 (2 year fix) - reverting to the SVR .. Banks SVR's are the key - if they stay low then those coming off these products will be better off (all else being equal - job, income etc ) so they will not be forced sellers. However, if the SVR's go up to over 6% (feasible) or the banks do a margin call on the risk his property represents relative to the debt.. then he will be stuffed. He bought a £530k house, 150k deposit - mortgage for 380k ... (interest only but he does overpay but not signifcantly) - house has lost over 100k in 12 months and he thinks that when his fix rate is over he will just be on the SVR and making a saving each month.. If not, he has no chance of remortgaging as he has insufficient equity and no money to make a capital injection.... I can`t see the bank pulling the plug though - or SVR's getting above 6% before the next election can you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted June 20, 2009 Share Posted June 20, 2009 Most liar loans I know of came with a rate of 6% interest or thereabouts - my mate had one from HBOS (fast track self cert) and that expires in Feb 2010 (2 year fix) - reverting to the SVR ..Banks SVR's are the key - if they stay low then those coming off these products will be better off (all else being equal - job, income etc ) so they will not be forced sellers. However, if the SVR's go up to over 6% (feasible) or the banks do a margin call on the risk his property represents relative to the debt.. then he will be stuffed. He bought a £530k house, 150k deposit - mortgage for 380k ... (interest only but he does overpay but not signifcantly) - house has lost over 100k in 12 months and he thinks that when his fix rate is over he will just be on the SVR and making a saving each month.. If not, he has no chance of remortgaging as he has insufficient equity and no money to make a capital injection.... I can`t see the bank pulling the plug though - or SVR's getting above 6% before the next election can you? After that sky's the limit. Low house prices = High interest rates. High Interest rates = Low house prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carrera Posted June 20, 2009 Share Posted June 20, 2009 I`m still not ruling out the possibility of a snap Autumn election - especially if the figures start to get worse ... which I predict they will ... We are on a downward spiral ride until we reach the natural flloor in the market.. we stop every now and again for more to jump on, then its back down we go .. Green shoots of recovery ... yes, if you work in the public sector ... where you can now be taken on as a bin inspector in South wales for 24k a year !! Ridiculous ... Given the substantive cust in the private sector already, how can the public sector still be growing? What.. was there a deficit?? I thought not .... come on GB, grow a pair ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Monk Posted June 20, 2009 Share Posted June 20, 2009 Dude did you miss the >2% increase last month? Plus job losses are not as bad as people feared they would be. Better still inflation is falling which means low rates will be around for a while longer! More houses sold but less money was advanced to buy them. What does that say to you, Sherlock? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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