Hpc 2 Is On

[Analysis]

1) Of the 7 HP surveys reported on this website, 6 are now negative. This includes forward looking indicators (asking prices) from Rightmove and home.co.uk

2) Supply has exceeded demand by a significant percentage according to anecdotal reports on this website and in much of the national press

3) Property Bee shows 20-40% of new properties listed each day on Rightmove as price drops. We are now starting to see some significant price drops (£100k in a single day amounting to 10-20% is now seen fairly regularly)

4) Asking prices in London (another leading indicator) are now dropping significantly (-5% in Chelsea and Westminster in June alone)

5) Most of the national press is once again howling about double digit price drops

6) Significant disincentive for BTL – CGT has risen by 10%, social security rents to private landlords severely curtailed, capital gains are off for the forseeable future, etc

and going forwards:

7) Mortgages still unavailable to many – approvals are running at ½ peak

8) Unemployment and part time work at a 12 year high

9) House prices to average earnings ratio is still above the peak in 1987 - after which prices crashed by a double digit sum

[The Masked Tulip]

I must have missed HPC1 - was it any good?

[Kyoto]

I must have missed HPC1 - was it any good?

15% - 20% off in some of my target markets for a period during HPC1 and it happened pretty quickly too.

That has looked pretty good in hindsight this year. If we test those levels again then I'll certainly be ready to pull the trigger...

[Pent Up]

I must have missed HPC1 - was it any good?

I was only 5 in 1988 so don't remember.

Still I'm starting to enjoy this one again.

[TylerDurden]

Not in Cardiff. Sorry.

[Fairies Wear Boots]

I was only 5 in 1988 so don't remember.

Still I'm starting to enjoy this one again.

'Bout time those bloody indexes started going down again!

[mentholist]

I think we're seeing final spunking of cash in the SE not helped by NS&I removing the only paying investment left. Reading and East Berks is seeing high turnover at the bottom end. This does have the effect of supporting everything else as cash rich boomers effectively use their own wealth to prop up prices. It can't possibly last but I'd bet a few quicd that regional prices will be up for July.

Hopefully it'll sort itself out as the nights close in but there's not fear here yet.

[kilroy]

Not in Cardiff. Sorry.

The welshies love their high asking prices. "Well, there's no cuts coming 'til next yur, seeee?"

[The Masked Tulip]

The welshies love their high asking prices. "Well, there's no cuts coming 'til next yur, seeee?"

Yep, that is it.

[Pauly_Boy]

Gordon Browns HPI Viagra has worn off!

[kilroy]

Yep, that is it.

Or around Ystrad Mynach "Well, the 'ospital is opening next yur, seeee?"

[Analysis]

I think we're seeing final spunking of cash in the SE not helped by NS&I removing the only paying investment left. Reading and East Berks is seeing high turnover at the bottom end. This does have the effect of supporting everything else as cash rich boomers effectively use their own wealth to prop up prices. It can't possibly last but I'd bet a few quicd that regional prices will be up for July.

Hopefully it'll sort itself out as the nights close in but there's not fear here yet.

Interesting - I also have been getting my data from the SE. There is definitely a smell of fear developing here now, matched in London of all places (asking prices for all of London fell 1.7% last month, >5% in Kensington and Chelsea!). So I'm guessing you may not have too long to wait in Berkshire.

[SleepyHead]

Interesting - I also have been getting my data from the SE. There is definitely a smell of fear developing here now, matched in London of all places (asking prices for all of London fell 1.7% last month, >5% in Kensington and Chelsea!). So I'm guessing you may not have too long to wait in Berkshire.

Yep, I'm seeing it too. (Midlands) It really does look like the bull trap is over.... finally thank goodness.

All these public sector workers finally realising they not only don't have a ever increasing salary and gold plated pension, but that they may not even have a job soon.

Remember seeing a crowd of public sector workers on a Newsnight programme, questioning Cameron and Clegg. One chap complained of the cuts to final salary pensions, and let slip that many of his colleagues had been signing up to mortgages based on their "post retirement" pension payouts too.

No wonder those of us in the private sector were being so massively outbid for houses!

[The Masked Tulip]

The 'I'm entiltled mentality' that was promoted by NuLabour.

Seems the ConDems will do something - shock horror they just got rid of a Grauiad enclave full of champagne film promotors. But let's see what they do about the really big problems, if they do make real cuts then HPC is on, if not, well the country is bankrupt and the IMF will have to make the cuts.

Hence why we have to wait for this Autumn - if by Dec 1st, after the spending review, there have been no serious job losses.... not announced job cuts to come at some grey date in the future but serious job losses in the tens of thousands in the public sector... then it ain't happening...

Every day the Coalition leaves it to cut it is a day nearer the next election.

[dances with sheeple]

The 'I'm entiltled mentality' that was promoted by NuLabour.

Seems the ConDems will do something - shock horror they just got rid of a Grauiad enclave full of champagne film promotors. But let's see what they do about the really big problems, if they do make real cuts then HPC is on, if not, well the country is bankrupt and the IMF will have to make the cuts.

Either way is fine by me. The cuts have to happen one way or another?

[Analysis]

The 'I'm entiltled mentality' that was promoted by NuLabour.

Seems the ConDems will do something - shock horror they just got rid of a Grauiad enclave full of champagne film promotors. But let's see what they do about the really big problems, if they do make real cuts then HPC is on, if not, well the country is bankrupt and the IMF will have to make the cuts.

However this is not a thread about public sector workers. And this constant whinging is getting pretty tedious now.

I suggest you start a separate thread if you want to discuss private and public sector worker benefits - this thread and indeed website is supposed to be about house prices.

[Hip to be bear]

However this is not a thread about public sector workers. And this constant whinging is getting pretty tedious now.

I suggest you start a separate thread if you want to discuss private and public sector worker benefits - this thread and indeed website is supposed to be about house prices.

Is your public sector non job under threat, matey...you seem a tad sensitive......and it looks like you didn't read the post you were replying too either!

[nixy]

However this is not a thread about public sector workers. And this constant whinging is getting pretty tedious now.

I suggest you start a separate thread if you want to discuss private and public sector worker benefits - this thread and indeed website is supposed to be about house prices.

yes , and the factors affecting house price change. A major cause has been public sector pay.

[Analysis]

yes , and the factors affecting house price change. A major cause has been public sector pay.

This is what I was objecting to:

'The 'I'm entiltled mentality' that was promoted by NuLabour.

Seems the ConDems will do something - shock horror they just got rid of a Grauiad enclave full of champagne film promotors'

This is entirely irrelevant to the thread or to a discussion about house prices. Public sector salary cuts yes. Public sector job losses yes. Statements such as 'shock horror they just got rid of a Grauiad enclave full of champagne film promotors', no. This has absolutely nothing to do with house prices. And is frankly getting pretty tedious.

Agreed?

[okaycuckoo]

15% - 20% off in some of my target markets for a period during HPC1 and it happened pretty quickly too.

That has looked pretty good in hindsight this year. If we test those levels again then I'll certainly be ready to pull the trigger...

Keep that finger in your pants.

[Analysis]

Read the entire post esp

But let's see what they do about the really big problems

It's all very well getting rid of some useless quango, but until the government address the real issues there will be no solution to the mess we are in and this includes unrealistic HPI.

So you are capable of coherent posts. You still couldn't keep the discussion on house prices though...'some useless quango'.

If you want to hijack the entire thread and discuss the pros and cons of government organisations then fine, but I am suggesting we stick to house prices, which is actually what the original post was about.

[Analysis]

But let's see what they do about the really big problems, if they do make real cuts then HPC is on, if not, well the country is bankrupt and the IMF will have to make the cuts.

Finally...well done.

If you really want, you can tell us what job you do and we can start a thread where we all go on about what a waste of space it is etc etc. This might also be pretty tedious, and is probably not relevant to a house price discussion forum, but you're welcome to start one if you wish.

Have a good evening.

[codeine]

So you are capable of coherent posts. You still couldn't keep the discussion on house prices though...'some useless quango'.

If you want to hijack the entire thread and discuss the pros and cons of government organisations then fine, but I am suggesting we stick to house prices, which is actually what the original post was about.

Well, you've really got your **** in your hand, haven't you? What were you? BECTA? QCDA?

Prices falling steadily but surely in the Vale of Glamorgan too. Not much seems to be shifting in Cardiff, though you still get the seemingly obligatory houses on the market at peak prices - houses that have been on the market at that price since, well, the peak.

Edited July 28, 2010 by codeine

[libspero]

1) Of the 7 HP surveys reported on this website, 6 are now negative. This includes forward looking indicators (asking prices) from Rightmove and home.co.uk

2) Supply has exceeded demand by a significant percentage according to anecdotal reports on this website and in much of the national press

3) Property Bee shows 20-40% of new properties listed each day on Rightmove as price drops. We are now starting to see some significant price drops (£100k in a single day amounting to 10-20% is now seen fairly regularly)

4) Asking prices in London (another leading indicator) are now dropping significantly (-5% in Chelsea and Westminster in June alone)

5) Most of the national press is once again howling about double digit price drops

Yep, it has been a long time coming and I was preparing to accept that we may not see further nominal falls.

Doesn't look like that now though.. controlled release of air appears to be the order of the day. Unfortunately I still think 15% falls would be the upper (nominal) limit simply because I'm not sure the banks can take much more than that. But with luck I'm wrong.

6) Significant disincentive for BTL – CGT has risen by 10%, social security rents to private landlords severely curtailed, capital gains are off for the foreseeable future, etc

Not enough IMHO, but at least it's a start. I think they have dampened the have-a-go landlord trend but will probably need some extra disincentives when property eventually becomes a good investment again.

[Kazuya]

Gordon Browns HPI Viagra has worn off!

Deflation