Bba Mortgage Approvals For March, Out At 9.30Pm - 34.9K

[JimSkank]

This early measure has been down at 35k for the last couple of months. Partially blamed on weather, and stamp duty shenanigans.

It seems to me that it could drop further this month, and would be a leading indicator to the uncertainty of public sector types with regard to job security and drawing away from the housing market.

In addition, it helps to fuel the theory that the market is being kept alive by cash buyers buying select, quality properties - the effect being that the market sucks cash out of the remaining market to absorb any future downward movements.

I don't really have a solid belief that the market will fall significantly again, although I do buy many of the arguments. I do however have a huge vested interest in the market coming down, and this measure for me, gives me the most leading indicator of that.

So come on baby, come down again, i'm looking for sub 30k.......

Edited April 27, 2010 by JimSkank

[Pent Up]

This early measure has been down at 35k for the last couple of months. Partially blamed on weather, and stamp duty shenanigans.

It seems to me that it could drop further this month, and would be a leading indicator to the uncertainty of public sector types with regard to job security and drawing away from the housing market.

In addition, it helps to fuel the theory that the market is being kept alive by cash buyers buying select, quality properties - the effect being that the market sucks cash out of the remaining market to absorb any future downward movements.

I don't really have a solid belief that the market will fall significantly again, although I do buy many of the arguments. I do however have a huge vested interest in the market coming down, and this measure for me, gives me the most leading indicator of that.

So come on baby, come down again, i'm looking for sub 30k.......

I thought it was due out at 9:30?

I think they be roughly the same maybe up a bit due to the time of year. Sub 30k would be good. I'd say 35k. Can't see a drop in prime buying season.

[deflation]

Should have been 08:30. Cue conspiracy theories, but more likely computer problems.

The forecast is for 39.3k and I expect it to be a bit less than that, but sub 30k would be very low. However, I think the record was Nov 2008, only 17.8k:

http://www.financemarkets.co.uk/2008/12/23/mortgage-approvals-down-60/

Edit: Apologies, Due 0830GMT, so should be at 0930 BST.

Edited April 27, 2010 by deflation

[moneyscam]

Should have been 08:30. Cue conspiracy theories, but more likely computer problems.

The forecast is for 39.3k and I expect it to be a bit less than that, but sub 30k would be very low. However, I think the record was Nov 2008, only 17.8k:

http://www.financemarkets.co.uk/2008/12/23/mortgage-approvals-down-60/

Edit: Apologies, Due 0830GMT, so should be at 0930 BST.

27 Apr 10:31:03 U.K.: BBA LOANS FOR HOUSE PURCHASE IN MARCH AT 34905 FROM A REVISED 33360 THE MONT PRIOR AMID EXPECTATIONS OF 38000.

Read more: Real Time Forex News http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_news/#ixzz0mHtZ5y5P

Read more: Real Time Forex News http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_news/#ixzz0mHtedR3I

Edited April 27, 2010 by moneyscam

[Pent Up]

34905k. Much lower than forecast. Only 95 off my prediction might I add

[Bloo Loo]

Spring bounce.

Walton on the Naze yesterday, the road out....about 40 For Sale, 1 or 2 Sold....and thats just the boards.

[moonriver]

34905k. Much lower than forecast. Only 95 off my prediction might I add

Good prediction by you there.

[ElPapasito]

34905k. Much lower than forecast. Only 95 off my prediction might I add

Flat-lining; No pulse; A stinking bloated corpse animated only by the evil laird's trickery as he seeks to simultaneously frighten and patronise the ignorant villagers into believing their beloved son is alive and well.

[buytoilet]

I note the previous month's figures were revised down from 35.3k to 33.4k.

The expected was 39.3k and actual 34.9k.

The revision allows them to say that mortgage approvals have risen month on month.

An old trick we've seen throughout this recession. Ask Confounded.

Indeed:

And as if like magic Mortgage lending in steady rise according to banks

[MississippiJohnHurt]

Just to make sure I'm clear: the figure for last month, which shd have been higher to reflect the start of the sacred Spring Bounce, was lower than the average of the last 6 months - a time when sales are traditionally at their worst, and were even worse than usual this year due to weather conditions (if the "expert" analysis is to be believed) .

If I'm not missing something obvious then: hahahahahahahaha

Where's Rinoa when you need him/her ? Would have a perfectly plausible explanation for this. Perhaps the volcano meant that people couldn't fly between cities looking for a new house.

[Confounded]

Just to make sure I'm clear: the figure for last month, which shd have been higher to reflect the start of the sacred Spring Bounce, was lower than the average of the last 6 months - a time when sales are traditionally at their worst, and were even worse than usual this year due to weather conditions (if the "expert" analysis is to be believed) .

If I'm not missing something obvious then: hahahahahahahaha

Where's Rinoa when you need him/her ? Would have a perfectly plausible explanation for this. Perhaps the volcano meant that people couldn't fly between cities looking for a new house.

Exactly and the reason why things are not even worse is the the intensive use of propaganda and the propensity of the masses to believe it.

I believe this period has been extremely damaging for the housing market and actually makes my long term view more bearish than 2 years ago. If they had allowed houses to correct to the levels seen in the bubble states in the US we may have actually been able to stabilise things to some degree as they have.

There is no one left to buy in the UK, this bubble has been pushed so far. All the people I know (outside of hpc) with their vulture funds in place for the correction have already gone all in since last March.

[Alfie Moon]

Looking at the BBA mortgage approvals statistic for March 2010 - 35k - I wondered what it had been in March 2006 ...... and found the following on the BBA website:

http://www.bba.org.uk/bba/jsp/polopoly.jsp?d=145&a=7114

There were 217,072 mortgage approvals (for all purposes) in March, with a total value of £21.7bn. This number of approvals was 30% higher than in February, and 15% higher than in March 2005. However approvals data are related to the number of working days in a month and March's 23 working days consequently inflated the total. The average approval for house purchase rose in March, to £134,300, some 6% higher than a year earlier.

Is the March 2010 - 35k mortgage approvals for all purposes or just for new purchases?

[Alfie Moon]

House purchase.

http://www.bba.org.u...ics_Release.pdf

I note that lending to businesses is still declining and negative.

EDIT: and the following which seems to be unnoticed:

Thanks hotairmail.

I have now found the BBA mortgage approval statistic for house purchase in Masrch 2006 - it was 85698.

March 2010 - 35k ...... long way before any recovery is achieved then .... need a 60% increase in mortgage approvals for home purchase to reach March 2006 levels again.

[moonriver]

I note the previous month's figures were revised down from 35.3k to 33.4k.

The expected was 39.3k and actual 34.9k.

The revision allows them to say that mortgage approvals have risen month on month.

An old trick we've seen throughout this recession. Ask Confounded.

And so the spin can continue, with the play on figures.

Crafty devils.

[Alfie Moon]

And so the spin can continue, with the play on figures.

Crafty devils.

Yes, which is why I advocate that we should be posting Readers Comments on property market related articles on national and local Newspaper websites pointing out that the BBA mortgage approvals for home purchase figure for March 2010 is 60% down on the number they found for March 2006 (ie 85698 mortgage approvals for home purchase).

[Gone baby gone]

The "spring bounce" has lost it's... spring

And this is before an election and the blood-letting that will surely follow.

[bobthe~]

I note the previous month's figures were revised down from 35.3k to 33.4k.

The expected was 39.3k and actual 34.9k.

The revision allows them to say that mortgage approvals have risen month on month.

An old trick we've seen throughout this recession. Ask Confounded.

Indeed:

And I noticed the CML have done it in this thread back in Mid March

As toilet-currency mentioned in that thread, the market fall for it more than they should.

[Gone baby gone]

And so the spin can continue, with the play on figures.

Crafty devils.

And look, here we go:

"Mortgage lending in steady rise say banks"

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8645936.stm

Nothing like using the word "steady" instead of "lower than estimated"

[Bloo Loo]

And I noticed the CML have done it in this thread back in Mid March

As toilet-currency mentioned in that thread, the market fall for it more than they should.

this is what they mean by "Locked in"

double plus good that last months figures are always worse than this months. imagination is better than actuality. Its what leads to bankruptcy of the Schroedingers Fat Cats.

[Confounded]

to be fiar,most retail punters I know have been piling into stocks since FTSE 100 5000.Biggest sucker rally outside of 1932.

lots pulled in by the 'we're getting nowt in the bank,let's buy an overpriced hosue instead then,'

cuz dat mek da fookin senz simples innit.

Wealth destruction phase or hyperinflation inflection point, we will find out soon.....

[Caveat Mortgagor]

Thanks hotairmail.

I have now found the BBA mortgage approval statistic for house purchase in Masrch 2006 - it was 85698.

March 2010 - 35k ...... long way before any recovery is achieved then .... need a 60% increase in mortgage approvals for home purchase to reach March 2006 levels again.

Correction. It would take an increase of 143% to return to 2006 levels.

[Alfie Moon]

Correction. It would take an increase of 143% to return to 2006 levels.

Yes you are right - I was confusing it with it being a 60% fall from the March 2006 number of approvals. Thanks, silly mistake on my part.

[Timm]

That astonishing recovery in full:

  Feb 2009         30,149    Mar 2009         29,212    Apr 2009         31,103    May 2009         34,320    Jun 2009         37,671    Jul 2009         40,627    Aug 2009         40,483    Sep 2009         41,671    Oct 2009         41,842    Nov 2009         44,326    Dec 2009         45,823    Jan 2010         35,389    Feb 2010         33,360    Mar 2010         34,905

Source: http://www.bba.org.uk/bba/jsp/polopoly.jsp?d=145&a=17655

[aussieboy]

That astonishing recovery in full:

  Feb 2009         30,149    Mar 2009         29,212    Apr 2009         31,103    May 2009         34,320    Jun 2009         37,671    Jul 2009         40,627    Aug 2009         40,483    Sep 2009         41,671    Oct 2009         41,842    Nov 2009         44,326    Dec 2009         45,823    Jan 2010         35,389    Feb 2010         33,360    Mar 2010         34,905

Source: http://www.bba.org.uk/bba/jsp/polopoly.jsp?d=145&a=17655

Looks like the "spline" correlation with price drops has weakened.

[Lepista]

Looks like the "spline" correlation with price drops has weakened.

I thought it was a T+3 correlation, or thereabouts...?

so, falls in the next few months for house prices.