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Everything posted by moneyscam

  1. He could have called their bluff by approving Savona knowing they couldn't alter the constitution whatever Savona proposed (even though there was no intention to propose euro exit). Then the coalition could have made made their case to the EU on relaxing fiscal compact rules etc via the normal govt to govt channels. Now he's made the case for Salvini that Italy is ultimately ruled in the interests of the EU and will give him the ammunition to actually do something about it by having the necessary majority to change the constitution together with di Maio at the next election. So it will prove t
  2. Indeed, whatever hope Mattarella had for stabilising the markets by appointing a caretaker government and reversing the BTP/bund yield spread rise since the M5S/Lega first proposed their contract has been blown out of the water today. The markets are rightly discounting already what you outlined above, the probability of euro exit has only been increased by Mattarella's action.
  3. Absolutely. If Mattarella had accepted the current M5S/Lega ticket, they would not have the majority necessary to alter the Italian constitution which is necessary to hold any sort of referendum on Euro or EU exit (despite neither of these being part of their proposed policy platform to Mattarella). Now, projections show that both M5S and Lega will gain votes and obtain bonus seats in an early election raising their majority from 54% to 69%. Ironically this is above the threshold needed to alter the constitution. https://www.corriere.it/cronache/18_maggio_28/lega-5-stelle-insieme-vi
  4. http://www.corriere.it/elezioni-2018/risultati-politiche/senato.shtml#map Looking at the electoral map there is a clear north south split with centre right sweeping the north and 5 star the south. PD got wiped out and FI came second to Lega so no chance of centre left/right grand coalition. Centre right coalition is @37%, short of the 40% needed for a majority. I don't think 5 star after obtaining 32% of the vote can just say it will do no deals with anyone, they have to move from a protest movement to actually governing. Only combination I see satisfying 5 star ruling out estab
  5. All banks have to prepare "living wills" and have the people, systems and processes in place to manage a banking failure. It's the response of the regulators to GFC and the systemic risk of the banking system, As these rules have now been more or less finalised affected companies have to start implementing them so it's not unusual to see them hiring for this area. Long read but gives a detailed explanation here. http://www.cms-lawnow.com/-/media/files/regzone/reports/regzonepdfreports/livingwillsbr.pdf
  6. Sure, massive CB injections of liquidity have 'crowded out' supply of interbank lending needed but it still goes on. And we know that this liquidity is going to be withdrawn albeit gradually. So the point still stands, of the lending that is going on between banks there are no signs of any stress yet. That woman sounds a bit crackers to me.
  7. If interbank lending is freezing then you would expect to see Ted Spread and Libor-OIS spread to blow out. They haven't. http://www.macrotrends.net/1447/ted-spread-historical-chart Unfortunately you can't get a current Libor-OIS spread chart on web but the TED spread clearly shows there isn't a funding crisis as reflected in the spread between the credit risk of a bank and the credit risk of a US Treasury.
  8. Can't see any BOE rate rises this year while the economy remains relatively weak to prior years. Brexit uncertainty will continue to weigh and it doesn't look like there are any wage led inflationary pressures this year to make them move. Market rates like Gilts on the other hand will continue to key off global rates, namely US treasuries. I expect 10yr UST to hit 3%, not sure if we go much beyond that unless we see core CPI begin to rise. Wages jumped from 2.6 to 2.9% annual gain last payroll number release but this figure is volatile on month on month basis. Would like to see a few more
  9. I had to jump through some ridiculous hoops to prove how exactly my deposit was built up over the years and having to provide all the movements in the account up to that point. I can imagine if they say "yes we accept the source of your deposit was originally in crypto but please show us how exactly you accumulated this amount?" would not be impossible but would be a right pain in the ****.
  10. There are many articles about this. Better yet, some who have made some nice gains might find they can't use them once turned back into fiat. Bitcoin investors struggle to cash out new fortunes https://www.ft.com/content/40c64992-f606-11e7-88f7-5465a6ce1a00 google the headline if you can't access it straight away This is my main issue with cryptos, the banks and govt don't like competition and regulations are non existent. Regulations are coming, you can be sure of that. Anything that affects the legitimate fungibility of cryptos to real world assets would be a death bl
  11. It's not quite a future, they have written a 1 yr covered call option with a strike of 50K to receive an option premium of 990K. It's a nice trade for the bitcoin holder if BTC prices continue to rise- at expiry the spot price will either be below, above or at the strike price. If above, say 70K, the call holder will exercise the option and pay 13.75m for BTC's now valued at (275*70) = 19.25m. Profit = 19.25-13.75-.99 = 5.01m The option writer will receive 19.25+.99= 20.24m banking the gain in difference of spot price between when he wrote the option and the option matured as we
  12. I agree, where are you buying XRP in UK? Can you buy it without having to get BC first?
  13. No need to be sorry, happy to discuss this further. I originally replied to your post to challenge your claim that all euro trading would be effectively banned outside the EU. Clearing is a different thing entirely, trading is trading, clearing is a post trade event. However I will address your points on clearing one more time. I only mention LCH as worthy of discussion (I'm well aware of the other clearers) as we are talking primarily about the clearing of Euro denominated interest rate derivatives. The £747 billion of notional euro is almost all cleared by LCH. CME has almost no
  14. Passporting is an issue primarily for the US and Asian investment banks that use London as a hub for Europe. What is passporting? Passporting is when you have a regulated entity in say France and you want to open an office in Germany. Passporting allows you to open the office in Germany without going through the heavy regulatory checks as if you were setting up from scratch. There are still some checks but the process is much faster. Passporting also allows you to offer cross-border services from your home hub. Passporting will in theory no longer be available when Britain leaves the EU.
  15. There is only one clearer in London and that is LCH. It doesn't employ 83,000 people, I know because I work with them. Nor do they turnover £80 bn a year, more like 376m euro for 2016 in clearing fees across all currencies. http://www.lch.com/documents/731485/762550/2016_Group_Accounts_for_website.pdf/4d998b1e-9843-4104-93da-5e52e140e2c6 You then say "The financial and professional services industry in London, which includes clearing is worth £175bn. That's everything. Around 11% of the economy. It runs a £70bn trade surplus, and is the UK largest export. It's a significant tax
  16. That's clearing, not trading. When Britain leaves the EU LCH will no longer be an EU authorised CCP but will become a 3rd country one. LCH can still clear Euro as long as it conforms to MIFIR under 3rd country provisions, as do the CME in Chicago and the SGX in Singapore currently. Clearing is miniscule compared to trading volumes, all euro clearing could leave London, won't change much for London but will have have an impact on any European banks who will lose the benefits of cross asset initial margin offsets as they are forced to split their euro and non euro clearing they current
  17. I know of no proposals to actually do this nor any explanation of how they are going to 'ban' euro trading outside the eurozone. The EU can't stop a Chinese bank trading with an American bank in an instrument denominated in Euro in Hong Kong anymore than it can stop a French bank trading Mexican peso denominated instruments with an African bank in New York. As much as any country or regional block wants to ensure its currency and denominated instruments are only traded within its jurisdiction it has no actual ability to control this. It would also be pretty dumb if you intend for your cur
  18. What happened to your very useful tool? Now I get a weird chinese crypto currency aggregator page!
  19. Angus Robertson gone and Tory gains in Scotland, what's going on up there?
  20. May is finished if this carries on and good riddance Please let it be David Davis and not that buffoon Boris
  21. yes, looking more and more likely now labour look to gain some seats from snp
  22. Agree on the South but we need to see quite a few more seats - also want to see some Scottish results come through
  23. long @ 1.2748 with a 40 point stop - hoping to ride it back up 1.2930 ish if exit poll is wrong
  24. Waiting for some more results but betting exit poll is wrong with a £ long trade for the night and a bit of fun.
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