Realistbear Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 http://www.xe.com/ 1 GBP =Inverse: US $1.51925 Euro: 1.11964 The housing market is the last domino to fall and the markets are reacting accordingly? Brown may think he is in control but the bond traders and currency markets call the shots now. IR rates will have to rise if we sink below 1.40 and that can happen in a matter of days. Could the market be reacting to the SKY poll showing labour rising? Something is spooking the market today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvidFan Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 No Seasonal weakness Same as last year And the year before And Jim Rogers is in the UK with his "sell the pound" campaign again this week. Nothing ever changes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Lorne Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 http://www.xe.com/ 1 GBP =Inverse: US $1.51925 Euro: 1.11964 The housing market is the last domino to fall and the markets are reacting accordingly? Brown may think he is in control but the bond traders and currency markets call the shots now. IR rates will have to rise if we sink below 1.40 and that can happen in a matter of days. Could the market be reacting to the SKY poll showing labour rising? Something is spooking the market today. ....Jim Rogers...denial ...prospect of hung parliament ...sterling may have to compete with Euro for race to the bottom...long way to go.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okaycuckoo Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 http://www.xe.com/ 1 GBP =Inverse: US $1.51925 Euro: 1.11964 The housing market is the last domino to fall and the markets are reacting accordingly? Brown may think he is in control but the bond traders and currency markets call the shots now. IR rates will have to rise if we sink below 1.40 and that can happen in a matter of days. Could the market be reacting to the SKY poll showing labour rising? Something is spooking the market today. Hehe. I enjoy your eternal vigilance on the £! Why do you reckon IRs (base rate?) will have to rise if £/$ slips below 1.4? We were at 1.35 this time last year and it had no effect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted February 26, 2010 Author Share Posted February 26, 2010 Hehe. I enjoy your eternal vigilance on the £! Why do you reckon IRs (base rate?) will have to rise if £/$ slips below 1.4? We were at 1.35 this time last year and it had no effect. The irony is that I no longer need to buy pounds as I exchanged some house money into sterling 18 months ago at 1.49. I have enough for a big downpayment on a cheap house when the times comes--possibly 2012 after another 40-50% comes off the top of the still grossly overpriced market. Most of my reserves are still in $ and I think I will keep it that way! IR may not help the pound now as the market knows that we cannot afford anything but 0%. We have structural probelms that are beyond fixing until something big breaks first. Bit like a bad broken arm op where the best way forward is to re-break it and start again. The Housing Market is going to suffer a huge blow this year as there are no more tricks up Gordon's trouser leg to save it. No more IR cuts, not more tax cuts no more immigrants to rely on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Lorne Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 The Housing Market is going to suffer a huge blow this year as there are no more tricks up Gordon's trouser leg to save it. No more IR cuts, not more tax cuts no more immigrants to rely on. ...and foreclosure blockage subsidies cannot last forever... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluffy666 Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 http://www.xe.com/ 1 GBP =Inverse: US $1.51925 Euro: 1.11964 The housing market is the last domino to fall and the markets are reacting accordingly? Brown may think he is in control but the bond traders and currency markets call the shots now. IR rates will have to rise if we sink below 1.40 and that can happen in a matter of days. Not with a may election. IR hikes will hurt immediately, Inflation will take longer to feed through. So I doubt there would be IR hikes this side of $1.20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest spp Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 Gold £731...yes that's an oz! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blankster Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 (edited) So much for predictions about the Euro being doomed! Edited February 26, 2010 by blankster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nixy Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 Gold £731...yes that's an oz! That can't be true, can it RB? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest spp Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 That can't be true, can it RB? Sorry it's not true...It's now £732! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Lorne Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 So much for predictions about the Euro being doomed! ...it's all about timing.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northwest Smith Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 (edited) Yesterday was the 89th lowest day for sterling in the 5,259 days since 1990 or when recordsbegan. Worst day of 2010 as well, 24th Feb 2010 was the 2nd worst. Top Worst 10 30/12/08 73.41 29/12/08 73.79 31/12/08 73.95 01/01/09 73.95 22/01/09 74.09 21/01/09 74.27 23/01/09 74.31 02/01/09 74.44 26/01/09 74.44 26/12/08 75.23 18/03/09 75.35 ......... 25/02/10 78.61 Edited February 26, 2010 by Northwest Smith Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted February 26, 2010 Author Share Posted February 26, 2010 That can't be true, can it RB? Gold is just another commodity that rides the market as Buffett decribe in his pendulum analogy. It has never recovered from the 1980 sell-off when it reached almost $2800 an ounce (inflation adjusted). There are better hedges against sterling than gold--how about Honeywell shares bought last year at $29 in US dollars and now at $40? Slightly outpaced gold? Factored against sterling it was a good bet. Don't hold too long though. Gold will do what gold always does--rise and fall, and when it falls it goes quickly. What might be the trigger? Frustration that it is not moon bound and still stuck well below $1500 (let along $2800)? Recession and depression looming which points to deflation? Everyone getting on the bandwagon believing its a one -way bet (the far end of the Buffett pendulum and a major sell signal)? IMO, gold has had its run and now its time to sell. http://www.kitco.com/market/ GOLD 26/02/10 02/26/2010 09:12 911.80 912.80 -115.20 -14.47%* _______ *just kidding Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seydel Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 Gold £731...yes that's an oz! Oh, drat and double drat. I wanted to post that info, but in reply to one of RealsitBear's messages. Still, I'll wait till Frank (the plank) Hovis to appear in a thread today to remind him that gold per ounce in sterling is an inch away from another all-time high. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MississippiJohnHurt Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 Could the market be reacting to the SKY poll showing labour rising? I was wondering that. Presumably the more likelihood of a hung parliament, the more the £ gets hit. Could be a nice little campaign line if the tories are not too busy coming up with ridiculous ideas like trying to flog off shares in nationalised banks to retail punters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azogar Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 Gold is just another commodity that rides the market as Buffett decribe in his pendulum analogy. It has never recovered from the 1980 sell-off when it reached almost $2800 an ounce (inflation adjusted). There are better hedges against sterling than gold--how about Honeywell shares bought last year at $29 in US dollars and now at $40? Slightly outpaced gold? Factored against sterling it was a good bet. Don't hold too long though. Gold will do what gold always does--rise and fall, and when it falls it goes quickly. What might be the trigger? Frustration that it is not moon bound and still stuck well below $1500 (let along $2800)? Recession and depression looming which points to deflation? Everyone getting on the bandwagon believing its a one -way bet (the far end of the Buffett pendulum and a major sell signal)? IMO, gold has had its run and now its time to sell. http://www.kitco.com/market/ GOLD 26/02/10 02/26/2010 09:12 911.80 912.80 -115.20 -14.47%* _______ *just kidding ***********************************************RB Contra Indicator Alert - Gold going higher************************************************ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest spp Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 So 99% of the people in the U.K should continue to hold the £ and have no Gold/Silver...hey RB?? C'mon continue to sell your Gold for cash...yeah? Not everyone is a trader...FOOL! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted February 26, 2010 Author Share Posted February 26, 2010 So 99% of the people in the U.K should continue to hold the £ and have no Gold/Silver...hey RB?? C'mon continue to sell your Gold for cash...yeah? Not everyone is a trader...FOOL! If I had gold I would have sold months ago. If I had sterling I would have bought $. As it is, I hold 2/3rds of my savings in US $ and am happy to stay that way. I would dump my pounds but bought a NW bond a month ago at 2.5% for 6 months--might have been wiser to have pulled it when I thought about it at 1.62 and written off a measly 30 days interest penalty. Gold is useless until you sell it. Same as every other investment. It has been the worst major investment of the last 25 years and I cannot see that changing. Gold had every reason to go to the moon during the crisis and threat of inflation. Both have passed and gold remains worth less than 50% of what it was in 1980 at the last peak. Everyone who invests is a trader. To a degree that means every person in theis coutry either directly or indirectly through their investments or reliancxe ona trading state. The market is pervasive, unforgiving and always wins the day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kilroy Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 I was wondering that. Presumably the more likelihood of a hung parliament, the more the £ gets hit. Could be a nice little campaign line if the tories are not too busy coming up with ridiculous ideas like trying to flog off shares in nationalised banks to retail punters. MAybe the market has figured out that gordon is a llon for wanting to do a pre-budget election. ANything less than very credible may mean a downgrade before the election. "I present to you the Downing Street Rating Company. UK gilts are AAAAAAA** rated and always will be" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LuckyOne Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 If I had gold I would have sold months ago. If I had sterling I would have bought $. As it is, I hold 2/3rds of my savings in US $ and am happy to stay that way. I would dump my pounds but bought a NW bond a month ago at 2.5% for 6 months--might have been wiser to have pulled it when I thought about it at 1.62 and written off a measly 30 days interest penalty. Gold is useless until you sell it. Same as every other investment. It has been the worst major investment of the last 25 years and I cannot see that changing. Gold had every reason to go to the moon during the crisis and threat of inflation. Both have passed and gold remains worth less than 50% of what it was in 1980 at the last peak. Everyone who invests is a trader. To a degree that means every person in theis coutry either directly or indirectly through their investments or reliancxe ona trading state. The market is pervasive, unforgiving and always wins the day. I am more cynical. Everyone who invests and makes money calls themselves a trader. Everyone who invests and loses money calls themselves an investor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sundance_kid Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 (edited) Speaking to a Lithuanian lad I know last night it seems the east Europeans are almost at breaking point now with regards to the low pound. They've been riding it out so far hoping things would improve but patience is wearing thin. He said a couple of his fellow polish workmates have had enough, and are going back home, with others on borrowed time. A mixture of a weak pound, poor work conditions and a tighter jobs market (harder getting a job being foreign) is breaking they’re backs. Edited February 26, 2010 by sundance_kid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
righttoleech Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 Stand by for dearer petrol, and everything transported.......i.e. everything. A little inflationary twist to finish us off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sour Mash Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 So much for predictions about the Euro being doomed! The pound is more doomed I think ... Euro, Dollar, Pound, Yen - all are on shaky foundations. At least the Dollar is global reserve/ petro/ commodity currency so there is built in support there. The Euro has some credibility simply because it is so widely used - which leaves the Yen and Sterling to fight it out for the wooden spoon. Despite all the Japanese problems they still have a more robust base than the UK IMO so I think sterling is the most likely to come off worst. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 Just got call from a 'bullmeister' city boy pal - bloody hell! said everyone very nervy on £ and warned me to prepare. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.