Topher Bear Posted October 3, 2007 Share Posted October 3, 2007 whoopeedoo, It's nearly christmas and santa's gonna deliver me a nice fat house price crash Good things come to those who wait.....and wait.....and wait..... surely no-one can deny that we were right all along after all....even Greenspan admits that there is no such thing as a new paradigm now! Just gotta save some more pennies, and my job and be ready to be in a better position to buy a house than those around me....ie I won't have mega debt hanging round my neck!! Enjoy the show guys....you've earn't it! Topher Bear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve99 Posted October 3, 2007 Share Posted October 3, 2007 whoopeedoo, It's nearly christmas and santa's gonna deliver me a nice fat house price crash Good things come to those who wait.....and wait.....and wait..... surely no-one can deny that we were right all along after all....even Greenspan admits that there is no such thing as a new paradigm now! Just gotta save some more pennies, and my job and be ready to be in a better position to buy a house than those around me....ie I won't have mega debt hanging round my neck!! Enjoy the show guys....you've earn't it! Topher Bear Christmas will only come to them that can keep a well paid job and have a big deposit. Suspect anything that causes a real HPC will have lots of unemployment and nervous bank managers attatched to it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Sacks Posted October 3, 2007 Share Posted October 3, 2007 (edited) whoopeedoo, It's nearly christmas and santa's gonna deliver me a nice fat house price crash Good things come to those who wait.....and wait.....and wait..... surely no-one can deny that we were right all along after all....even Greenspan admits that there is no such thing as a new paradigm now! Just gotta save some more pennies, and my job and be ready to be in a better position to buy a house than those around me....ie I won't have mega debt hanging round my neck!! Enjoy the show guys....you've earn't it! Topher Bear Yes, we've been here a long time now. I can honestly say this site has changed my life. I found this site when I was angry about the council's planning decision over our "unconventional" dwelling, after we'd been living here for years. The area was filling up with smug tw@ts, obsessed with "pwoperty". They really pissed me off and I was convinced they were all conspiring against us, trying to get us economically cleansed from our land. I thought they might win so we were considering our alternatives, like buying a legal house. Anyway, since then we've had two kids and the business with the council has blown through. We could afford to buy a place in the village now, but don't want to. We've lived like this for so long now, repairing and modifying our home with salvaged materials, getting through the bleak winters etc, we don't want a proper house really, never have done. I wish everyone here the best of luck and hope everything works out, bulls and bears. Edited October 3, 2007 by dom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buyinbrazil Posted October 3, 2007 Share Posted October 3, 2007 i agree,like folk who suffer an illness find comfort in understanding the subject and discussing it with others,same as HPC .I have learned and found that understanding the subject better a great comfort.thanks all,pete Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pioneer31 Posted October 3, 2007 Share Posted October 3, 2007 i agree,like folk who suffer an illness find comfort in understanding the subject and discussing it with others,same as HPC .I have learned and found that understanding the subject better a great comfort.thanks all,pete This site is a nice reminder that there are plenty of people out there, who are as b***dy angry as I am with the current state of affairs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Badger Posted October 3, 2007 Share Posted October 3, 2007 Agreed, like a balm to my wounds this site, helping to understand how things have gone t*ts up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
basildonian Posted October 4, 2007 Share Posted October 4, 2007 (edited) whoopeedoo, It's nearly christmas and santa's gonna deliver me a nice fat house price crash Good things come to those who wait.....and wait.....and wait..... surely no-one can deny that we were right all along after all....even Greenspan admits that there is no such thing as a new paradigm now! Just gotta save some more pennies, and my job and be ready to be in a better position to buy a house than those around me....ie I won't have mega debt hanging round my neck!! Enjoy the show guys....you've earn't it! Topher Bear All these group hugs are great but I can't see it falling enough to make your 3+ year wait worthwhile. sorry. EDIT: I have just read your 04 posts you were predicting 40% falls back then. I want a correction as much as the next man (to trade up) but I think you have to be realistic. Baz Edited October 4, 2007 by basildonian Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Skint Academic Posted October 4, 2007 Share Posted October 4, 2007 All these group hugs are great but I can't see it falling enough to make your 3+ year wait worthwhile. sorry. I never understood this logic. Surely the longer the bubble lasts, the further it moves from the fundamentals and therefore the larger the correction? Not to mention that it doesn't just correct itself but swings too far the other way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nowthenagain Posted October 4, 2007 Share Posted October 4, 2007 F**k Christmas. K-Winter here we come! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearbullfence Posted October 4, 2007 Share Posted October 4, 2007 i agree,like folk who suffer an illness find comfort in understanding the subject and discussing it with others,same as HPC .I have learned and found that understanding the subject better a great comfort.thanks all,pete Ha ha, yes, because not owning a house is a disease. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
look to the past Posted October 4, 2007 Share Posted October 4, 2007 whoopeedoo, It's nearly christmas and santa's gonna deliver me a nice fat house price crash Good things come to those who wait.....and wait.....and wait..... surely no-one can deny that we were right all along after all....even Greenspan admits that there is no such thing as a new paradigm now! Just gotta save some more pennies, and my job and be ready to be in a better position to buy a house than those around me....ie I won't have mega debt hanging round my neck!! Enjoy the show guys....you've earn't it! Topher Bear Is this the most optimistic post ever – why is this Xmas any different to the last 3 – YOY prices still 10%+ , even if the worst scenario happened people still would not reduce their sale price – this takes at least a year – Anyway interest rates are probably going to come down to keep the economy going – the side effect will be that this house bubble is only half way there – whoopeedoo – unless you have some proof that the crash is actually going to happen at all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
basildonian Posted October 4, 2007 Share Posted October 4, 2007 (edited) I never understood this logic. Surely the longer the bubble lasts, the further it moves from the fundamentals and therefore the larger the correction? Not to mention that it doesn't just correct itself but swings too far the other way. I just think it's extremely optimistic to think the prices could fall to a level where they end 40% off the summer 04 values. I am not saying it's impossible but to wait that long is a bit like backing a 100 to 1 outsider at Newmarket. How many people, with the benefit of hindsight, can honestly say that they would not have been better of buying back then (assuming they could afford it of course). If they had they would have had three years of paying off a mortgage, no hassle form landlords and probably a lot less stress from waiting for the crash every day. Baz Edited October 4, 2007 by basildonian Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
basildonian Posted October 4, 2007 Share Posted October 4, 2007 I am suprised there was no retort on this. Do you guys really think prices could fall THAT far. Baz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bear call spread Posted October 4, 2007 Share Posted October 4, 2007 whoopeedoo, It's nearly christmas and santa's gonna deliver me a nice fat house price crash Good things come to those who wait.....and wait.....and wait..... surely no-one can deny that we were right all along after all....even Greenspan admits that there is no such thing as a new paradigm now! Just gotta save some more pennies, and my job and be ready to be in a better position to buy a house than those around me....ie I won't have mega debt hanging round my neck!! Enjoy the show guys....you've earn't it! Topher Bear Yep - not long to go, the house price crash is nearly here.... http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/art...head/article.do Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Topher Bear Posted October 4, 2007 Author Share Posted October 4, 2007 F**k Christmas. K-Winter here we come! Now thats pessimism! Look to history....does it look like a K-wave? I'll leave you all to work on that yoursevles and come to your own conclusions!! I may predict depressions, but K-winters a whole different kettle of poo! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Topher Bear Posted October 4, 2007 Author Share Posted October 4, 2007 Is this the most optimistic post ever – why is this Xmas any different to the last 3 – YOY prices still 10%+ , even if the worst scenario happened people still would not reduce their sale price – this takes at least a year – Anyway interest rates are probably going to come down to keep the economy going – the side effect will be that this house bubble is only half way there – whoopeedoo – unless you have some proof that the crash is actually going to happen at all I'm not suggesting that we will get 10% down by year end or anything, only that the October House Price figures will be showing falls, which will only contiue, down and down. Previous dips on the way up here, have not had the headwind that we have now. All the bulls said that it couldn't come down without job losses first, well how about a major credit crunch and rapidly rising repossessions! No this time the charts have the right look to them, the economics back it up. We HAVE peaked and now the declie starts, no we see how fast and how far. I do predict large falls, and I now reckon 50% falls is not only poss but likely, but how long is another key question that I don't have the answer to. My gut is that it wll be fast this time, due to who will be dumping properties...much more like investment. This is an investment led rise and fall, more akin to shares. The previous fall was due to high rates and unemployement and people just losing heir own homes...takes a bit longer. but having said that, the rise took longer, so no reason to suppose that the fall will be any quicker...they tend to be slower than the rise...we'll just have to wait and see. IR's are not coming down anytime soon. The economy is facing some real serious problems now...look around, the news is full of stories of how prices are rising, fuel & food forming a major part of inflation figures. Plus sentiment is still high, with reports of people still optimistic and spending. While this goes on, inflationary pressures remain high. The BoE are just on a wait and see at the moment, but soon they will have to raise them again, to combat the inflation that just won't go away. Its called Stagflation. A time when an economy goes through a period of zero or negative growth combined with high inflation....this situation leaves the powers that be fairly powerless to resolve the issue. This time its for real. I said that I was leaving the site, but would return when the fun started...well now I think the fun has started...only its not just a house price crash but a debt bubble bursting too! A perfect storm anyone? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted October 4, 2007 Share Posted October 4, 2007 This time its for real. The truth hurts...for some. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Topher Bear Posted October 4, 2007 Author Share Posted October 4, 2007 I just think it's extremely optimistic to think the prices could fall to a level where they end 40% off the summer 04 values. I am not saying it's impossible but to wait that long is a bit like backing a 100 to 1 outsider at Newmarket.How many people, with the benefit of hindsight, can honestly say that they would not have been better of buying back then (assuming they could afford it of course). If they had they would have had three years of paying off a mortgage, no hassle form landlords and probably a lot less stress from waiting for the crash every day. Baz Hindsight is a wonderful thing! If I had hindsight, I would have ignored our parents advice to be cautious, not to mortgage to the hilt, don't touch 100% mortgages etc. etc. , bought a nice small 2 bed house in Camberley back in 1999 on a 100% mortgage for about £100K, remortgaged the following year to a better rate 90% mortgage with the value having risen to £115K. Stayed for a further 3 years, sold the house about £180K, when I lost my job, moved to rented down in wimborne with my new job, sitting on around £100K in the bank....actually no, I would never have noticed the bubble, not found HPC, been one of the 1000's of others to see their "hard won" equity fall down the drain. c'est la vie! In terms of stress, sounds like owning your own home comes with its own set of stresses, don't see that renting is so bad...its helped me out during my relocations round the country!! Now as to how far will it fall. Let me put it to you like this. Banks are now pullin back hard on the lending. Self Cert lying is dead i the water. Now if banks return to their traditional 3 times salary lending criteria (which many never officially let go of, just found ways around it!), think about the average salary in your area, think about the sort of property that Mr & Mrs Average will be after, then work out on the basis of a 90% mortage how much they have available to purchase with, that'll be how much prices will need to come down to., in order to stop the rot and return to normality. Think about Mr late 20's singleton. Whats he earning? how much are his debt repayments (he's bound to have them). How much anual salary does he have available. multiply it by 3, add 10%, that'll be the price of a 1 bed flat (maybe 2 bed if he's in a good job). You do the research, you do the maths. In fact could prove an interesting study from around the country from all HPC members. Oh yes, for those areas swamped by OAPs taking up all the houses (ie south west and coastline) it seems that there has been a major surge in OAP repossessions!! Where's that come from!!! Maybe these places wil suffer just as much after all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its time to buy Posted October 4, 2007 Share Posted October 4, 2007 (edited) Oh yes, for those areas swamped by OAPs taking up all the houses (ie south west and coastline) it seems that there has been a major surge in OAP repossessions!! Where's that come from!!! Maybe these places wil suffer just as much after all. Maybe because they all drive very expensive cars and go on cruises Look inside the next Nissan "X-Trail", Rav 4, or any Silver Merc. Typical OAP runabouts. Edited October 4, 2007 by notanewmember Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
basildonian Posted October 4, 2007 Share Posted October 4, 2007 The truth hurts...for some. Yes it hurts those people that hold on for years because they want prices to fall THAT far. It would actually suite me if they fell back to 1999 levels because I would trade up big time. It would be nice but I just can't see it happening. Baz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted October 4, 2007 Share Posted October 4, 2007 whoopeedoo, It's nearly christmas and santa's gonna deliver me a nice fat house price crash Topher Bear The trouble is many have been led to believe christmas comes but every day, all you needed to do was sit in your home and it made you money without having to lift a finger. Nice work if you can get it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
right_freds_dead Posted October 4, 2007 Share Posted October 4, 2007 Yes it hurts those people that hold on for years because they want prices to fall THAT far.It would actually suite me if they fell back to 1999 levels because I would trade up big time. It would be nice but I just can't see it happening. Baz yeah youd trade up if a. some bank could lend you the funds. b. your job was secure enough to cover the repayments. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
basildonian Posted October 4, 2007 Share Posted October 4, 2007 yeah youd trade up ifa. some bank could lend you the funds. b. your job was secure enough to cover the repayments. That's the problem isn't it. If we get that big a crash who knows what other problems are going to come with it. Baz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted October 4, 2007 Share Posted October 4, 2007 That's the problem isn't it.If we get that big a crash who knows what other problems are going to come with it. Baz Lets not talk about crashes, all that is required is to revert back to responsible lending criteria, 3 to 4 times 1st income + 1 time 2nd income. House prices will then adjust themselves accordingly...how can that disadvantage anyone? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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