City Boy Says Bloodbath By Christmas

[Bearfacts]

Anecdotal I know so please feel free to move it but my neighbour who works for Credit Suisse in the big shi*y seems to be a mite concerned about holding on to his job at the moment and commented that he felt there would be a bloodbath by christmas. Seem to be hearing that phrase a lot at the moment from people who work in or used to work in the city.

[Ted D. Bear]

From a post on a BBC blog entitled "Scything the City"

So brutal redundancies are now only days and weeks away, as it becomes commonly accepted that the turmoil in financial markets will depress certain lines of business for months if not years.

The boss of one investment bank tells me he expects a first wave of job cuts that will see individual banks reduce their headcounts between 5 and 15 per cent.

And he says he wouldn't be surprised if that was followed just a few months later by a second wave of similar or even greater magnitude.

[Bri2]

Anecdotal I know so please feel free to move it but my neighbour who works for Credit Suisse in the big shi*y seems to be a mite concerned about holding on to his job at the moment and commented that he felt there would be a bloodbath by christmas. Seem to be hearing that phrase a lot at the moment from people who work in or used to work in the city.

Estate Agent told me a few weeks ago that market was possibly 30% below asking prices. I thought that he was a bot pessimistic but he was probably only telling it as he found it. 30% was what he said most properties would have to lose off asking to deffo sell.

A lot of the City Whizz Kids actually underperform the markets with their trading so a good clearout of these completely superfluous types was always on the cards.

[South Lorne]

Estate Agent told me a few weeks ago that market was possibly 30% below asking prices. I thought that he was a bot pessimistic but he was probably only telling it as he found it. 30% was what he said most properties would have to lose off asking to deffo sell.

A lot of the City Whizz Kids actually underperform the markets with their trading so a good clearout of these completely superfluous types was always on the cards.

.......a 30% drop in London before a city clear out is worth noting..!...

[nohpc]

Estate Agent told me a few weeks ago that market was possibly 30% below asking prices. I thought that he was a bot pessimistic but he was probably only telling it as he found it. 30% was what he said most properties would have to lose off asking to deffo sell.

Hometrack still reporting average 96% of sales price achieved for north London so definitely no evidence for this silly anecdotal.

[Dubai]

Another blast from the past.

I like nohpc's reply.

Ok, no more bumps, sleepy time.

[Guest KingCharles1st]

Estate Agent told me a few weeks ago that market was possibly 30% below asking prices. I thought that he was a bot pessimistic but he was probably only telling it as he found it. 30% was what he said most properties would have to lose off asking to deffo sell.

A lot of the City Whizz Kids actually underperform the markets with their trading so a good clearout of these completely superfluous types was always on the cards.

It's amazing isn't it. The country has spent the last 5 years pumping up what it never had- now they are al lshitting themselves because they are all about to loose 30% of something that never existed..

[Guest grumpy-old-man]

It's amazing isn't it. The country has spent the last 5 years pumping up what it never had- now they are al lshitting themselves because they are all about to loose 30% of something that never existed..

I keep having the very same conversation with various homeowners you know.

When I ask them how much their property is worth, they smile & give me the amount. Then when I ask them how do they intend to get that money they looked puzzled.

The other ne I have with them is ask them this:

if they buy a house for £100,000 with a 95% mortgage & it's now valued at £200,000, how much have they made. When they give me the answer of approx £100,000, I ask them where do they intend to live once they have sold the house. They then say they would buy another house, so I ask them how much that would cost......& so on ........

hilarious..........

[steve99]

Anecdotal I know so please feel free to move it but my neighbour who works for Credit Suisse in the big shi*y seems to be a mite concerned about holding on to his job at the moment and commented that he felt there would be a bloodbath by christmas. Seem to be hearing that phrase a lot at the moment from people who work in or used to work in the city.

Funny how things get reported, if the city gets rid of 10% its called a 'bloodbath' however if entire industries get deleted, to the tune of 100's of thousands of workers over a couple of years then thats called 'progress'. My last company deleted its workforce to the tune of 80% with outsoursing to India all the real jobs (IT mostly), this type of thing is also known as progress. Seems the mainstream press and the government see the 'City' as being the economy, if it is good for the 'City' its good for everyone, seems to be proving otherwise now though. Another issue is that most city workers can be out for a couple of years then get back in again if they realy want to (even Nick Leeson), however this isnt the case with most other industries. Sure if you are one of those losing your city job it is a calamity however in real terms on a national scale it is a moot point, even if they reduce the city workforce by 50%

[Bloo Loo]

Another issue is that most city workers can be out for a couple of years then get back in again if they realy want to (even Nick Leeson), however this isnt the case with most other industries. Sure if you are one of those losing your city job it is a calamity however in real terms on a national scale it is a moot point, even if they reduce the city workforce by 50%

Funny that, but its the same for criminals- always demand for a good safe cracker, or armed robber once hes back on the street.

[munimula]

Estate Agent told me a few weeks ago that market was possibly 30% below asking prices. I thought that he was a bot pessimistic but he was probably only telling it as he found it. 30% was what he said most properties would have to lose off asking to deffo sell.

A lot of the City Whizz Kids actually underperform the markets with their trading so a good clearout of these completely superfluous types was always on the cards.

An EA friend of my parents in Devon, director of a large EA chain told them not to put in offers of more than 20% below asking prices and that was about 4-5 months ago. In reality, in the area they are looking to buy houses are probably 25% below asking if sellers actually need to sell them. But of course sellers won't reduce to they go unsold.

[Bloo Loo]

"So brutal redundancies are now only days and weeks away, as it becomes commonly accepted that the turmoil in financial markets will depress certain lines of business for months if not years.

The boss of one investment bank tells me he expects a first wave of job cuts that will see individual banks reduce their headcounts between 5 and 15 per cent.

And he says he wouldn't be surprised if that was followed just a few months later by a second wave of similar or even greater magnitude."

It's not all bad...they could perhaps do something useful like setting up export businesses or something like that instead?

Question: I may have missed it, but are the city co's scything their employees? Havent heard anything about it and its Nearly Christmas!

[TortoiseYid]

So in September someone claimed "brutal redundancies are only days or weeks away".

Must have missed that. Not the greatest anecdotal ever.

Things will be painful next year, and there will be layoffs, but there's still plenty of work/vacancies in the City, bonuses are being paid as normal, wages are still high.

[DoctorJ]

I read yesterday that Goldman are dishing out 85bn in bonuses this christmas (in the express). Doesn't sound like a bloodbath to me

[Selling up]

A lot of the City Whizz Kids actually underperform the markets with their trading so a good clearout of these completely superfluous types was always on the cards.

I read a fascinating analysis of this from Motley Fool. It said that something over 95% of all share transactions were carried out by professional investors (fund managers etc).

Therefore "the market" IS the aggregate transactions of fund managers. (any given transaction typically involves one fund manager, who is is bullish on a stock, buying it from another, who is bearish on it)

Therefore by definition the average fund manager performance is the market performance. And from that definition approximately 50% of fund managers must inevitably underperform the market.

Which is why the Fool recommends index trackers.

[Guest tbatst2000]

It's not all bad...they could perhaps do something useful like setting up export businesses or something like that instead?

Funnily enough, that sort of thing is quite common - just read the FT weekend section a few times to get an idea of the number of 'lost job in the city used payoff to start real company' stories there are.

[munimula]

I read yesterday that Goldman are dishing out 85bn in bonuses this christmas (in the express). Doesn't sound like a bloodbath to me

Goldman is probably the only bank to have avoided the subprime fallout because they offloaded any dodgy investments prior to the crunch

Therefore they are not going to be typical of other banks when it comes to bonuses.

[Gone baby gone]

Funny how things get reported, if the city gets rid of 10% its called a 'bloodbath' however if entire industries get deleted, to the tune of 100's of thousands of workers over a couple of years then thats called 'progress'. My last company deleted its workforce to the tune of 80% with outsoursing to India all the real jobs (IT mostly), this type of thing is also known as progress. Seems the mainstream press and the government see the 'City' as being the economy, if it is good for the 'City' its good for everyone, seems to be proving otherwise now though. Another issue is that most city workers can be out for a couple of years then get back in again if they realy want to (even Nick Leeson), however this isnt the case with most other industries. Sure if you are one of those losing your city job it is a calamity however in real terms on a national scale it is a moot point, even if they reduce the city workforce by 50%

I would say this is only true of those in higher management positions. Why? Well...

The city favours a younger, keener workforce. They rarely hire people over 40 without an excellent track record. Why hire someone who is 36 and wants time off for family, has higher salary/bonus expectations when they can get a 25 yr old who will be as good with 6 months on the job.

The technology and markets are constantly changing, i.e. the demand for staff involved with derivatives is falling off a cliff. IT systems and the regulatory environment change so your experience 3 years ago may be worth much less.

[EmpiricalBear]

I suspect that this years bonuses will be a last suck at the trough before what is to come.

A nebuchadnezzar at the 'last chance saloon'

[PropertyGuru]

So in September someone claimed "brutal redundancies are only days or weeks away".

Must have missed that. Not the greatest anecdotal ever.

Things will be painful next year, and there will be layoffs, but there's still plenty of work/vacancies in the City, bonuses are being paid as normal, wages are still high.

barely a day goes by when someone doesnt post a clipping re a bank shedding thousands. Use the 'search' function.

1000 per week = 50000 redundancies over a year.

[Bloo Loo]

barely a day goes by when someone doesnt post a clipping re a bank shedding thousands. Use the 'search' function.

1000 per week = 50000 redundancies over a year.

go on, be a devil, show me one

[TortoiseYid]

barely a day goes by when someone doesnt post a clipping re a bank shedding thousands. Use the 'search' function.

1000 per week = 50000 redundancies over a year.

I don't need to use a "search" function to tell you know that there is no "bloodbath" in the City.

Sorry to spoil your fun, but it just ain't happening yet.

Will be sure to let you know when it does start, ok?

[Guest tbatst2000]

I don't need to use a "search" function to tell you know that there is no "bloodbath" in the City.

Sorry to spoil your fun, but it just ain't happening yet.

Will be sure to let you know when it does start, ok?

Yes, more like a grazed knee at the moment. I'm seeing an uptick in the number of CVs landing on my desk - the usual first signs of trouble - but nothing more extreme. It'll be clear at the end of Q1 2008 if things are going to get worse (or better depending on your point of view I guess) I'd say. The first few months of the year are, historically, usually the best and, if they turn out dire this time around, then things will kick off for real.

[Goldfinger]

I read yesterday that Goldman are dishing out 85bn in bonuses this christmas (in the express). Doesn't sound like a bloodbath to me

Sounds more like hyperinflation.

[Bloo Loo]

Sounds more like hyperinflation.

you're right- Im sure the express report was a typo- should have read $85trn in bonuses