" House Prices Fall In Capital"

[Realistbear]

http://business.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=1394182007

House prices fall in capital

TERESA HUNTER

PROPERTY prices in the capital fell slightly in August, according to statistics due out later this week, adding to evidence that the Scottish housing market is slowing.

A raft of new data over the next few days will confirm not only is property inflation cooling, but that 'offers-over' premiums are narrowing and turnaround times lengthening.

Looks like another good news week shaping up.

[Slumpmonkey Returns]

http://business.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=1394182007

House prices fall in capital

TERESA HUNTER

PROPERTY prices in the capital fell slightly in August, according to statistics due out later this week, adding to evidence that the Scottish housing market is slowing.

A raft of new data over the next few days will confirm not only is property inflation cooling, but that 'offers-over' premiums are narrowing and turnaround times lengthening.

Looks like another good news week shaping up.

yeah, but........ this is Scotland and houses will never lose their value in England!

[@contradevian]

yeah, but........ this is Scotland and houses will never lose their value in England!

Now I'm confoosed. Only a few weeks ago Edinburgh was booming (according to the papers) because it was a centre for the finance industry. Oh wait...

[ccc]

I have personal experience of 5 people selling their houses/flats in and around Edinburgh in the last 3 months. One has had loads of viewings, and even turned down a few offers. The other 4 have not faired so well. 2 have been on the market for a while and almost no interest. 2 have been sold, but took a lot longer than expected and the price they got was less than they wanted.

August is a quiet time of course, but still things shouldn't be that bad. In my own personal experience the property market in and around Edinburgh has at the very least 'levelled off'. And at worst the drop has already started, people just don't want to accept it yet.

I reckon this time next year Edinburgh prices will have dropped a fair bit. Problem being for all the finance jobs in Edinburgh the average punter is still probably only on £20-25k if they are lucky. It is not like London where you have thousands earning 6 or 7 figure bonuses, but the property prices are similar.

I wonder what is about to happen up here in the next few years.................

Edited September 2, 2007 by ccc

[canny man]

They did not fall 'slightly'. According to the article they fell from 228,845 to 216,147. This is more than 5% in one month, and has halved the annual HPI figure from 20% to 10%. A couple more months like this and it's annual drop time.

This is hugely significant as the VI's constantly tell us that Edinburgh is different and never crashes.

My banker friends are getting sweaty beneath their white collars....

[JoeDavola]

I have my doubts that Edinburgh prices will fall all that much, as, like London, it is a place where loads of people want to live.

[ccc]

They did not fall 'slightly'. According to the article they fell from 228,845 to 216,147. This is more than 5% in one month, and has halved the annual HPI figure from 20% to 10%. A couple more months like this and it's annual drop time.

This is hugely significant as the VI's constantly tell us that Edinburgh is different and never crashes.

My banker friends are getting sweaty beneath their white collars....

You seem to be confused. If house prices rise by 5% in a month it is 'Booming' and 'accelerating'.

If it falls by 5% in a month then you are not allowed to use similar words. Examples of 'slightly' and 'minor' spring to mind. The words 'bust' or 'freefall' must be avoided at all costs.

[brickinthewall]

Loving this!

Just to put you in the picture, I sold in Edinburgh at the beginning of July and now I'm renting back in England. I've lost count of the number of people who told me that the Edinburgh property market could never go down because it never had!! And now, a drop of some £12,000 on the average house price. Well!, it's only a wee drop after all but not far away from 5% if my maths adds up to be somewhere near correct. That's quite a bit different to the Nationwide figures for the house prices in England!

I also wonder if because of the 'offers over' system in Scotland, and people frequently offering 25 - 30% over the offers over price, whether or not the average house price could drop significantly more quickly than in England. As people become aware of a potential HPC, surely they won't be offering the silly prices that have been seen in recent years. Once house sale figures are processed for the third and fourth quarters for Edinburgh maybe we'll see a significant change,.........for the better!!

P.S. My heating bills are a fair bit less now that I'm in the S.E. England again!

[the end is a bit nigher]

fortunately prices in Auchgourish rose by 423% in the same period, thus ensuring there was no drop in 'average' prices

[grey shark]

They did not fall 'slightly'. According to the article they fell from 228,845 to 216,147. This is more than 5% in one month, and has halved the annual HPI figure from 20% to 10%. A couple more months like this and it's annual drop time.

This is hugely significant as the VI's constantly tell us that Edinburgh is different and never crashes.

My banker friends are getting sweaty beneath their white collars....

Yes i saw this even allowing for seasonal adjustment this is a juicy drop , obviously RB didn't spot this otherwise i'm sure he would of highligted it in big red type in his opening post .

[Realistbear]

I have my doubts that Edinburgh prices will fall all that much, as, like London, it is a place where loads of people want to live.

That is exactly what they said about Southern California! Everyone and their aunt in the US wants to move to the world's most perfect climate, San Diego, and yet it became the spawning ground for Great Crash 2. 6% down last month according to a leading EA in the area (Bob Casegrand).

A lot of people might want to live somewhere but when it gets too expensive and credit dries up.....................

Edinburgh Solicitors Property Centre (ESPC) is expected to announce a drop in average house prices in the capital, from £228,845 in July to £216,147 in August, coinciding with a halving in the annual rate of inflation over just four months since it peaked at 20% in March.

It was quite a drop.

Edited September 2, 2007 by Realistbear

[silver surfer]

I have personal experience of 5 people selling their houses/flats in and around Edinburgh in the last 3 months. One has had loads of viewings, and even turned down a few offers. The other 4 have not faired so well. 2 have been on the market for a while and almost no interest. 2 have been sold, but took a lot longer than expected and the price they got was less than they wanted.

That's interesting. What factors meant one had more interest than the others? Price, location, type of property, etc?

[Scunnered]

They did not fall 'slightly'. According to the article they fell from 228,845 to 216,147.

Absolutely right: that's a pretty big drop. If prices were to drop at the same rate every month for the next twelve months then by this time next year the average price would be £108,953. I'm sure that's not going to happen (although I can still dream), but it demonstrates just how quickly price falls can mount up. The biggest price rises this year seemed to be at the start of the year when financial workers were cashing in their bonuses. It'll be interesting to see what happens this time around.

[ccc]

That's interesting. What factors meant one had more interest than the others? Price, location, type of property, etc?

Family home just outside Edinburgh - No interest

Family home in Edinburgh - No interest

2 bed flat just outside Edinburgh - little interest, sold after 3ish months for about 10k less than expected.

2 bed flat in centre of Edinburgh - Bought for 172k after good few months on the market - after moving to fixed price. (Was bought 4 years ago for 165k.)

2 level 2 bed flat in Edinburgh centre - Lots of interest, 1 offer.

Not looking that much like a 'booming market' to me. Of course there are still houses selling for lots, but these seem to be few and far between. Totally different to this time last year - And pretty much any time in the last 10ish years.

[Guest Shedfish]

soon it'll be "prices rose in Malmesbury" this month on the bbc

[Wario]

Corks! Those caring but sharp-elbowed clever parents who normally snap up anything with an entry-and-exit hole and plumbing are leaving it a bit late this year.

Freshers' Week starts on Saturday, and H-W and Napier should be in by the end of the month too.

Maybe they've decided that renting ain't such dead money after all

[Mancghirl]

This is beautiful stuff, keep it up.

I spent a depressing afternoon yesterday perusing the ESPC website, contemplating the fact that my nearly 40k salary will just about stretch to a mortgage on a 1 bed no box room in Tollcross - repayments would be about £900 per month. Meanwhile I am still renting a lovely spacious flat for £495.

I really am feeling the need to buy and put down some roots, but I am not going to bankrupt myself in the process. This is just the kind of reality check I need.

[Wario]

This is beautiful stuff, keep it up.

I spent a depressing afternoon yesterday perusing the ESPC website, contemplating the fact that my nearly 40k salary will just about stretch to a mortgage on a 1 bed no box room in Tollcross - repayments would be about £900 per month. Meanwhile I am still renting a lovely spacious flat for £495.

I really am feeling the need to buy and put down some roots, but I am not going to bankrupt myself in the process. This is just the kind of reality check I need.

Tollcross does have a couple of advantages. Dole Office's on the doorstep, and, er,... that's it.

Oh it does have Probably The Best Primary School In The Toon, as well.

[gordonbrown]

Family home just outside Edinburgh - No interest

Family home in Edinburgh - No interest

2 bed flat just outside Edinburgh - little interest, sold after 3ish months for about 10k less than expected.

2 bed flat in centre of Edinburgh - Bought for 172k after good few months on the market - after moving to fixed price. (Was bought 4 years ago for 165k.)

2 level 2 bed flat in Edinburgh centre - Lots of interest, 1 offer.

Not looking that much like a 'booming market' to me. Of course there are still houses selling for lots, but these seem to be few and far between. Totally different to this time last year - And pretty much any time in the last 10ish years.

Well, I will have a three bedroom house outside Edinburgh on the market next week. I want a bigger house, but don't want to be rushed into anything. The mortgage is paid. The plan is to sell up and get my old man to sort out building something.

This HPI thing has been such a bugger. Cant really justify moving when prices were going up so quickly. Now though, with a 6.7% return on the cash we get from selling the house, and places for rent at £400.00 a month I cant see why not to.

I don't want to be an STR type. If ever there was a pisspoor investment strategy it has to be betting against the UK housing market. That said, I wont be rushing, and I await developments with interest.

[sinclair]

This is beautiful stuff, keep it up.

I spent a depressing afternoon yesterday perusing the ESPC website, contemplating the fact that my nearly 40k salary will just about stretch to a mortgage on a 1 bed no box room in Tollcross - repayments would be about £900 per month. Meanwhile I am still renting a lovely spacious flat for £495.

I really am feeling the need to buy and put down some roots, but I am not going to bankrupt myself in the process. This is just the kind of reality check I need.

Well you could always try Linlithgow - just looked at the ESPC website there are 14 properties & all but 4 are fixed price. There are three flats at Broomyhill Place I've been keeping an eye on - all fixed price and none of them shifting

[Mancghirl]

As bellweathers go, the number of properties on at FP is a great one. Nothing says 'I'm gagging to shift this flat' quite like it!

I'm sitting tight and watching this one unfold.........

[Goldfinger]

I suppose Edinburgh is toast then. Well, well, we might see these £80k flats in Bruntsfield again. And £100,000 in Merchiston. And Leith, oh well.

[Scunnered]

I suppose Edinburgh is toast then. Well, well, we might see these £80k flats in Bruntsfield again. And £100,000 in Merchiston. And Leith, oh well.

You forgot the thousands of flats in Granton ("Scotland's Riviera") that they haven't even got round to building yet.

[Mancghirl]

Granton ("Scotland's Riviera")

It's a beautiful part of the world, innit?

(I shouldn't laugh, one of my mates is just about to conclude missives on a new build up there....mind you she has just offloaded her Gorgie gaff to some poor sod for £115k ....)

[JoeDavola]

If house prices were to drop significantly in Edinburgh over the next few years I would consider moving there as I really do like the place; although I'm not sure how easy it would be to get a job - the good thing about Belfast is there is plenty of IT jobs at the moment. The bad thing of course being the horrendously overpriced houses.