Little Birdy Tweets Again

[DrBob]

Okay folks, back to topic:

I think PG is onto something: We know that the MPC will see May's inflation figures before they decide on interest rates. If PG is right, these might show a further small fall in CPI (e.g. to 2.6%) as lower gas/electricity costs keep feeding through and the recent higher oil prices have yet to bite.

On the other hand, input prices are rising, factory gate prices are rising and commodity prices are rising. And for the sceptics out there who think that Gordon retains some influence over the MPC, remember that we're a couple of years away from a general election, so it'd be better to get the pain out of the way now!

The question is whether the MPC will take the short-term approach (keep rates on hold) or take the longer-term view and raise rates in expectation of inflation six months down the line. The MPC has the capacity to surprise if they want to (remember January?). I don't think a 'hold' decision can be taken for granted, and would put the chances at 50:50.

PS: I have to report a vested interest in this month's decision!

Edited June 4, 2007 by DrBob

[enworb]

They were just examples , who constantly churn over the same old brown stuff week after week i could give you a whole list if you want , even you who are a albeit harmless confused bull not knowing whats happening in lurverlllly Slough .

How much did you lose in that wallet you left in that cab that night , i read that story so much that i've forgotten it .

Do you mean the time that I left my wallet in a taxi?

It was handed into the police station, who through my driving license, traced my phone number and left a message to collect it

Ok the (little) money that WAS in it was no longer in it, but all my cards and license were.

[othello]

Okay folks, back to topic:

I think PG is onto something: We know that the MPC will see May's inflation figures before they decide on interest rates. If PG is right, these might show a further small fall in CPI (e.g. to 2.6%) as lower gas/electricity costs keep feeding through and the recent higher oil prices have yet to bite.

My understanding is that the MPC take the long term view i.e. are looking 12-18 months ahead, so this months inflation figures are of little relevance to this months decision. There are a lot of inflationary factors coming through the pipeline and that is what they need to maange.

However I am sure rates will remain on hold as the MPC (have you seen them - can you imagine that they are entrusted to steer the good ship IK plc through the icebergs of economic uncertainty ?) seem too scared to take the drastic action as required. Rabbits and headlights spring to mind.

Ultimately there is nothing they can do anyway because they are trying to do something askin to stopping global warming by taxing 4x4s.

Edited June 5, 2007 by othello

[PropertyGuru]

My understanding is that the MPC take the long term view i.e. are looking 12-18 months ahead, so this months inflation figures are of little relevance to this months decision. There are a lot of inflationary factors coming through the pipeline and that is what they need to maange.

However I am sure rates will remain on hold as the MPC (have you seen them - can you imagine that they are entrusted to steer the good ship IK plc through the icebergs of economic uncertainty ?) seem too scared to take the drastic action as required. Rabbits and headlights spring to mind.

Ultimately there is nothing they can do anyway because they are trying to do something askin to stopping global warming by taxing 4x4s.

unfortunately, their actions (especially over the last few months) have proven this claim to be a lie - the MPC 'knee jerk' react, and badly at that. Balless little lickspittles.

[OnlyMe]

unfortunately, their actions (especially over the last few months) have proven this claim to be a lie - the MPC 'knee jerk' react, and badly at that. Balless little lickspittles.

Yes, and the longer they delay in controlling inflation the higher rates will go.

[Guest grumpy-old-man]

Not so. You know when you've beaten PG because that's when he puts you on ignore...

not so imo.

I have read many of his earlier posts in which he tried to discuss threads but got bogged down with PP & some of the other posters who would swear blind that blue is red, if it suited their cause.

PG is ok in my book & called Q1 2007 first.

[Furby]

PG is ok in my book & called Q1 2007 first.

Indeed.

One worrying aspect about PG's posts though is that i seem to read them in the voice of hulk hogan....

F

[Son of Taeper]

Hey, PG is back and not before time.

[Guest grumpy-old-man]

Indeed.

One worrying aspect about PG's posts though is that i seem to read them in the voice of hulk hogan....

F

yes, I know what you mean.

please don't do mine in a grumpy old moaning voice.

[Scooter]

as I said, the birdy is 1-0 against. You seem to have some sort of reading disorder. Maybe you should get it checked out. They can probably tell you what part of your anatomy is causing the funny smell, too.

As to the other poster (the one obsessed with y-fronts) - 'past performance is no guarantee of future success' as you would know if you'd ever done anything but schlepp in to your job at McDonalds day in day out. I commend Nicholas Taleb's excellent book to you. Look for the chapter on survivorship bias. It might enable you to take your mind off gentlemen's underclothes for a minute or two.

No reading disorder, just a bit curious that you seem to be a bit of a fantasist. Why not get yourself a girlfriend or a boyfriend or a cat or something instead? Much more healthy than posting nonsense on the internet...

S.

[apom]

Never argue with an idiot. First of all they drag you down to their level, then they beat you through experience

Therefore PG cannot be beaten

Enworb, I notice that you are a bull.

A bull by definition sees a particular market as somewhere to make a great deal of money.

Kudos to you for that, personally I am a bear, to damned whiny to make money before the market turns.

So, when do you think that the market will turn? You must be poised to sell your stocks.

Fact, bulls see tops to the markets to, if you don’t then you are not a bull.

You are the person that a bull would sell to.

The last man holding in a greater fool market:

So by any economic measure that would make you the greatest fool 

Apom deals the killer retort using inarguable economic fact.

(Note any arguments by a fool are those arguments used by Bulls to sell to fools)

Over to you Property Guru

[PropertyGuru]

No reading disorder, just a bit curious that you seem to be a bit of a fantasist. Why not get yourself a girlfriend or a boyfriend or a cat or something instead? Much more healthy than posting nonsense on the internet...

S.

jeezuz christ, pooper-scooter, Is that the BEST you can do????

I'm sorry, but it's like nuking a bunch of pygmies armed with nothing more than sharpened fruit.

I let you have a small load of quality insults that undoubtedly made everyone else chuckle roundly at your expense, and all you can come back with is the equivalent of 'you are gay'???

Perhaps you can all see why I put little whiny estate agents like this lift-emptying bum-blast on ignore. It really aint worth my time. Message to the patheti-trolls. Unless you can raise your game significantly, I'm not going to cross swords with you anymore. Or should I say 'dice your sharpened fruit'.

edit - apom, indeed, irrefutable. But they will still try to refute it. The VIs will be bleating 'thats it, the crash is over' every week all the way down to 2013 in some shape or form.

Edited June 5, 2007 by PropertyGuru

[Wait & See]

I'm sorry, but it's like nuking a bunch of pygmies armed with nothing more than sharpened fruit.

[Scooter]

jeezuz christ, pooper-scooter, Is that the BEST you can do????

I'm sorry, but it's like nuking a bunch of pygmies armed with nothing more than sharpened fruit.

I let you have a small load of quality insults that undoubtedly made everyone else chuckle roundly at your expense, and all you can come back with is the equivalent of 'you are gay'???

Perhaps you can all see why I put little whiny estate agents like this lift-emptying bum-blast on ignore. It really aint worth my time. Message to the patheti-trolls. Unless you can raise your game significantly, I'm not going to cross swords with you anymore. Or should I say 'dice your sharpened fruit'.

edit - apom, indeed, irrefutable. But they will still try to refute it. The VIs will be bleating 'thats it, the crash is over' every week all the way down to 2013 in some shape or form.

I am not suggesting you are gay (or remotely bothered if you are). I have no idea what sex you are. I just think you need a friend or partner. You seem to amuse yourself though...

S.

[It is different this time]

So, when do you think that the market will turn?

The problem is that Bulls don't think the market will turn as it is different this time. Anyone holding his or her housing stock, for future gain in today's market, is either stupid or amateur. Greed is a very dangerous habit indeed as many will find out.

[Son of Taeper]

Do you mean the time that I left my wallet in a taxi?

It was handed into the police station, who through my driving license, traced my phone number and left a message to collect it

Ok the (little) money that WAS in it was no longer in it, but all my cards and license were.

Village life I suppose

[PropertyGuru]

Village life I suppose

as in Greenwich Village? As in YMCA?

[enworb]

Enworb, I notice that you are a bull.

A bull by definition sees a particular market as somewhere to make a great deal of money.

Kudos to you for that, personally I am a bear, to damned whiny to make money before the market turns.

So, when do you think that the market will turn? You must be poised to sell your stocks.

Fact, bulls see tops to the markets to, if you don’t then you are not a bull.

You are the person that a bull would sell to.

The last man holding in a greater fool market:

So by any economic measure that would make you the greatest fool 

Apom deals the killer retort using inarguable economic fact.

(Note any arguments by a fool are those arguments used by Bulls to sell to fools)

Over to you Property Guru

Apom

How is it in the city?

FYI, short term I am selling my 2 bed split level maisonette, medium term, selling my 2 bed flat and then buying a larger freehold house with the procedes.

The reason. 1300 more aparments are to be built in Slough as part of regenerating the town. I don't fancy having two 2 bedders when that happens.

But i believe family homes will continue to rise in value, particularly detached which is my long term goal.

If I ever think prices are falling I will be the first to change my status to bear but I don't expect to any time soon. I'll turn neither before that happens and that's a while away yet.

As always, my opinion (and concern) is for the SE....although i'm getting more and more tempted with life in Nevis, where my Dad was born in the Caribbean.

[Roman Abramovitch]

No doubt about it, a hold this month for interest rates but come July 2007 !!!!!!UP BY 0.25%

Roman is usually correct so please be patient for another month fellow bears.

My Motto is "Life is too short" and I am delighted thar Property Guru has retained his sense of humour

[Scooter]

No doubt about it, a hold this month for interest rates but come July 2007 !!!!!!UP BY 0.25%

Roman is usually correct so please be patient for another month fellow bears.

My Motto is "Life is too short" and I am delighted thar Property Guru has retained his sense of humour

Roman,

Will you be PG's friend?

S.

[apom]

The problem is that Bulls don't think the market will turn as it is different this time. Anyone holding his or her housing stock, for future gain in today's market, is either stupid or amateur. Greed is a very dangerous habit indeed as many will find out.

bulls do think that markets will turn, they ride the bull run making money.

then they sell to fools, who think they are bulls and who think that the market will not turn.

they are the greatest fools in a greater fool market.

Not bulls.

[othello]

unfortunately, their actions (especially over the last few months) have proven this claim to be a lie - the MPC 'knee jerk' react, and badly at that. Balless little lickspittles.

'

I think you're being unfair to 'balless little lickspittles' by comparing them to the MPC but I accept the latter may succumb to knee-jerk - or more likely are shit-scared about preciptiating a crash, or doing anything that might make a difference. BTW what is a lickspittle and where does the expression come from?

Edited June 6, 2007 by othello

[PropertyGuru]

'

I think you're being unfair to 'balless little lickspittles' by comparing them to the MPC but I accept the latter may succumb to knee-jerk - or more likely are shit-scared about preciptiating a crash, or doing anything that might make a difference. BTW what is a lickspittle and where does the expression come from?

the quote was originally coined to describe 'Pooper-Scooter'.

We had to stop using it though because he does have balls, just not between his legs, and started threatening that 'he wouldnt be our friend anymore' unless we were nice to him. Personally, I don't mind him. he may be a turd, but at least he's a fresh turd.

[HenryWeston]

'

I think you're being unfair to 'balless little lickspittles' by comparing them to the MPC but I accept the latter may succumb to knee-jerk - or more likely are shit-scared about preciptiating a crash, or doing anything that might make a difference. BTW what is a lickspittle and where does the expression come from?

From the Oxford dictionary:

lickspittle

• noun a person who behaves obsequiously to those in power.

[apom]

Hi PG,

I can't claim to have any people who I would call friends on the net. My mates are the people I go out for a beer with or grew up with or hang out with (you know, in the flesh, real life?). You seem to be concerned mostly with amusing strangers on an obscure website, which really does sound a bit sad to me.

S.

Look, everyone on here is a stranger to everyone else.

I could be a well to do IT contractor living the life of riley with an ex model highly intelligent girlfriend who is over ten years my junior.. Better looking then I deserve following a life of excess and misadventure.

Or I could be a 65 year old fat woman with a mustache called bernie.. (the mustaches name not mine... I mean this fictional character...)

Or I could be a lonely fool with no one to love me living in dispair at the country and blaming everyone but myself..

we are all strangers.. getting personal attackes any thin vinear of a character that we can portray on this site...

and misses the point.

All bull markets run until they turn.

There are many things which will drive this market to a peak and then cause it to turn downward...

Stating that all bubbles burst is a given..

Getting upset when people discuss the innevitable is childish.

and claiming that any assett can attain an unafordable price and maintain it through anything but speculation shows scant appreciation of the connection between the word "affordable" and "value"

We are not discussing if, we are discussing when.