Jeremy Vine - Bbc Radio2

[se7ensport]

I have the audio file but I'm unable to upload it due to size, it's 23mb, any suggestions on hosting it?

[SeenItAllBefore]

I missed the intro and listened to the “it’s different this time” guy blaming MIRAS for the last crash thinking he was a representative of the housing industry. I was surprised to hear that he was “Greg Wood, BBC business correspondent”, no wonder their journalism is getting slagged off if his take on the situation is anything to go by. Wood was a journalist back then, he should remember what happened.

He seems to think that the dual MIRAS abolition for unmarried mortgagees was entirely responsible for the rocketing house prices and overheating economy in 1988. That’s just not true, the market had been booming for years before that and Lawson actually took that step in March 1988 to try and remove some of the distortions. If you go and look at the stats on the ONS site you’ll see that there were 1.5 million house sales in 1982. This rose to 1.9 million in 1987 and reached its peak at 2.1 million in 1988 so the 4 month dual MIRAS abolition “stampede” only caused an uptick of 200,000 transactions on the year before and, it’s worth repeating, it was only unmarried joint mortgagees that were affected by it anyway. What proportion of the market did they make up in that period? I know several people who bought in the “hot-spots” of London and the South-East in the first half of 1987 and their places rose about 20% before the market topped out a year later so I can accept that MIRAS abolition may have been responsible for some of the last leg of the price-spike but nothing more.

The real truth is that the housing market and the economic boom of the second half of the 80s fed off each other to such an extent that, with no China effect to mask it, inflation eventually took hold again, interest rates were increased in response, the symbiosis between the wider economy and the housing market broke down and we had the recession that caused higher unemployment and the crash. The Bank of England know that the same conditions are in place now and have been for years. They’ll do the best they can to keep the property market and consumer economy supporting each other for as long as possible. They've had a recent reminder of what will happen if they don't. Take a look at this graph from the ONS site.

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/CCI/nugget.as...=1&Rank=144

Look at what happened to GDP growth during the period between Mervyn King’s downbeat speech on the housing market in June 2004 and Summer 2005. Those MPC members that voted for the interest rate cut in the August of that year knew exactly what they were doing.

[bomberbrown]

Well done FP! After the disappointing performance last night from the Priced Out spokesperson I needed a big tonic! You were very confident and you easilly made the VI look stupid. FFS, his mobile even went off at one point - what an amateur spiv!

My colleague (who has her own house) was listening and she is now convinced that a HPC is coming soon! We are now beginning to turn public opinion after years and years of the VI bulls getting their own way!

I'm probably going to make myself an unpopular poster on HPC but I couldn't care less.

First of all, Liz did her best and despite not being in posession of real testicles (i.e. but she has got metaphorical b0llox) , she was there and gave a reasoned argument (agreed not passionate or emotive) about spiralling house prices. Nonetheless, SHE WAS THERE!

Jonathan gave a good argument on the HPC Radio2 but the one thing that I found with Jonathans delivery on both the Radio2 and Sky News TV interviews was the incesscant 'erms'. Not very convincing.

Jonathan/FP, I hope you take that as a constructive criticism and if I hadn't been down Brighton waving a soggy banner at many a delusioned queue junky at GB's conference I would have been at the HPC shindig having a drink with you all.....and I would have told you so. =)

[Bearfacts]

Just listened to the broadcast again - excellent. Mind you that Greg Woods sounded exactly like a VI, think he must have a BTL or two.

[Killer Bunny]

Erm, thanks. Really useful.

[bomberbrown]

Erm, thanks. Really useful.

Excellent. My work here is done.

[Guest X-QUORK]

I'm probably going to make myself an unpopular poster on HPC but I couldn't care less.

First of all, Liz did her best and despite not being in posession of real testicles (i.e. but she has got metaphorical b0llox) , she was there and gave a reasoned argument (agreed not passionate or emotive) about spiralling house prices. Nonetheless, SHE WAS THERE!

Jonathan gave a good argument on the HPC Radio2 but the one thing that I found with Jonathans delivery on both the Radio2 and Sky News TV interviews was the incesscant 'erms'. Not very convincing.

Jonathan/FP, I hope you take that as a constructive criticism and if I hadn't been down Brighton waving a soggy banner at many a delusioned queue junky at GB's conference I would have been at the HPC shindig having a drink with you all.....and I would have told you so. =)

Good lord Bomber, you're giving Alastair Campbell a run for his money!

[Guest muttley]

Erm, thanks. Really useful.

I didn't notice the "erms". Excellent work FP.

[Johnny Cash]

F.P - excellent work. You are sounding more and more accomplished with every interview. You made great points and countered the BS from the VIs. You sounded very well informed , certainly more so than the other twats. You sounded confident and calm and from my own limited personal experience I know that ain't easy on live mass media. In my humble opinion you nailed them. Your closing comment was a peach - floored the sucker. When is your next engagement - I'm already looking forward to it. Perhaps you could volunteer to stand in for Priced Out.

Im sure you didn't mean it to come across as such but the implication here is that FP is a twit as well.

[billy-g]

A twit? No.

Being overexcitable i.e. that 'BBC trying to silence me' quip when his microphone went down, yes, very. To the ordinary Joe, that makes you sound like a tinfoil hat wearing crank. Not good grounding for the following discussion.

Also suffered from that Scottish trait of speaking to quickly.

Apart from that, okay performance, but saved entirely by the killer blow of getting the last word in on that quote from the FT. Had it not been for that...

Edited May 27, 2007 by billy-g