kenclarkesshoes Posted May 16, 2007 Share Posted May 16, 2007 40,006!!!!!!!!! now you just have to start all over again. perhaps make 40,100 your next target Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvidFan Posted May 16, 2007 Share Posted May 16, 2007 40,006!!!!!!!!! What percentage of the total number of dwellings in Ireland is that, and how many month's inventory is it???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tara747 Posted May 16, 2007 Author Share Posted May 16, 2007 What percentage of the total number of dwellings in Ireland is that, and how many month's inventory is it???? It's about 6 months' inventory AFAIK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pod Posted May 16, 2007 Share Posted May 16, 2007 40,006!!!!!!!!! On a roll...40,079 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tara747 Posted May 16, 2007 Author Share Posted May 16, 2007 40,089. It's gone up by over 200 in 24 hours! We could be at 41,000 by Ireland's general election day (24 May). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dude wheres my house Posted May 16, 2007 Share Posted May 16, 2007 Is that the number of houses for sale or number of posts on this thread? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pod Posted May 16, 2007 Share Posted May 16, 2007 (edited) http://www.moneyweek.com/file/29122/is-the...or-a-crash.html from article:- As more properties come onto the market, prices fall. There are now 250,000 vacant housing units on the market, about 15% of Irish housing stock, compared to 100,000 units five years ago. So builders are responding the only way they can - they’ve stopped building. The 12-month running total for housing starts has fallen from a peak of 96,000 in September last year to 83,000 now. This means 1 in 7 properties in Ireland is currently for sale! In fact I think it may actually be even more as it states "250,000 vacant housing units" so does not appear to even include occupied properties for sale! Edited May 16, 2007 by pod Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrashConnoisseur Posted May 16, 2007 Share Posted May 16, 2007 Vacancy stats. 'A warning from deserted ghost estates' [October 2006]: http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2006/10/1/a-...d-ghost-estates There are an estimated 230,000 vacant properties in Ireland, according to Davy Stockbrokers. This figure is substantiated by this year's reports from the census gatherers, who found a surplus of vacant houses for which nobody answered the census. Following discussions with local estate agents, neighbours and postmen, they concluded that many properties had never been lived in or were long-term vacant.On the day of the 2002 census, it was estimated that there were just over 140,000 houses vacant across the country. In the past five years, this figure has increased by over 50 per cent, to about 230,000. Today, 13.5 per cent of the total housing stock is vacant. The ESRI did a study on this in May 2005 and found that traditionally Ireland has had a high vacancy rate, but that phenomenon was explained by emigration where houses were left when the people moved to Britain or the US. However, today -- when inward migration is running at 70,000 per year -- the emergence of new ghost estates is worrying. Even if we accept that Ireland might have a slightly different history, are you comfortable with the fact that in Britain -- which has a similar home owning and holiday home buying culture, the corresponding figure is 3.2 per cent of all houses? Here one house in seven is empty; over there it is one house in every 31. There I was thinking all along that we had a housing crisis, with prices rising at double digit rates because we didn’t have enough houses. All the estate agents told me the reason prices were rising was that demand outstripped supply and we needed more houses. Well, it is crystal clear that the opposite is the case. It is not that we don’t have enough houses -- we have too many. Here is the problem. With 13.5 per cent of all houses vacant and an estimated 40,000 more ghost houses being built as I write, what is keeping their value up? Normally, value is some derivative of what the asset earns. But if the asset is earning no income, how does its price continue to rise in the aggregate? The last time we saw assets being priced with no reference to their underlying yield was in the dotcom boom. Remember that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted May 16, 2007 Share Posted May 16, 2007 http://daftwatch.atspace.com/ That is amazing... A price crash in real time! Supply is up +160% since August! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smell the Fear Posted May 16, 2007 Share Posted May 16, 2007 (edited) from article:-This means 1 in 7 properties in Ireland is currently for sale! In fact I think it may actually be even more as it states "250,000 vacant housing units" so does not appear to even include occupied properties for sale! It's hard to see how this cannot cause a massive implosion of the housing market and the wider economy over the next year. Interesting to see what happens in NI. I think the ROI speculators are reckless enough to keep piling into the NI market for a while, but it must surely turn there also. NI might actually be a much worse proposition than Dublin ever was. Properties in Belfast seem to be yielding 2.5-3% gross, against a backdrop of 5.5% UK base rate. I think Dublin yields are similar, but against the lower Euro rate backdrop of 3.75%. Edited May 16, 2007 by Smell the Fear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie Don't Surf Posted May 16, 2007 Share Posted May 16, 2007 My God, it is going to be carnage over there. With that many empty places it seems clear that only speculation has driven prices up. Add an IR hike in June and it will go into free fall. Might be hard to ignore 30% drops next door without a decent explanation why house prices only go up in the UK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tara747 Posted May 17, 2007 Author Share Posted May 17, 2007 It's hard to see how this cannot cause a massive implosion of the housing market and the wider economy over the next year.Interesting to see what happens in NI. I think the ROI speculators are reckless enough to keep piling into the NI market for a while, but it must surely turn there also. NI might actually be a much worse proposition than Dublin ever was. Properties in Belfast seem to be yielding 2.5-3% gross, against a backdrop of 5.5% UK base rate. I think Dublin yields are similar, but against the lower Euro rate backdrop of 3.75%. They won't pile into NI any more if they haven't got the money to do so. My God, it is going to be carnage over there. With that many empty places it seems clear that only speculation has driven prices up. Add an IR hike in June and it will go into free fall.Might be hard to ignore 30% drops next door without a decent explanation why house prices only go up in the UK If you look at irishpropertywatch.com and thepropertypin.com, some prices have dropped 30% ALREADY - even in prime Dublin areas. So nowhere is safe! The crash has barely started there, things are going to get very messy. As you say, sentiment is key - if Joe Public sees that prices CAN fall, he will be a lot more cautious. Credit tightening will do the rest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tara747 Posted May 17, 2007 Author Share Posted May 17, 2007 It's hard to see how this cannot cause a massive implosion of the housing market and the wider economy over the next year.Interesting to see what happens in NI. I think the ROI speculators are reckless enough to keep piling into the NI market for a while, but it must surely turn there also. NI might actually be a much worse proposition than Dublin ever was. Properties in Belfast seem to be yielding 2.5-3% gross, against a backdrop of 5.5% UK base rate. I think Dublin yields are similar, but against the lower Euro rate backdrop of 3.75%. They won't pile into NI any more if they haven't got the money to do so. My God, it is going to be carnage over there. With that many empty places it seems clear that only speculation has driven prices up. Add an IR hike in June and it will go into free fall.Might be hard to ignore 30% drops next door without a decent explanation why house prices only go up in the UK If you look at irishpropertywatch.com and thepropertypin.com, some prices have dropped 30% ALREADY - even in prime Dublin areas. So nowhere is safe! The crash has barely started there, things are going to get very messy. As you say, sentiment is key - if Joe Public sees that prices CAN fall, he will be a lot more cautious. Credit tightening will do the rest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tara747 Posted May 17, 2007 Author Share Posted May 17, 2007 Now 40,248. It's going up quickly! 41,000 by election day anyone? Only a week to go, could be pushing 42,000 by then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nohpc Posted May 17, 2007 Share Posted May 17, 2007 Now 40,248.It's going up quickly! 41,000 by election day anyone? Only a week to go, could be pushing 42,000 by then. If prices crash in Ireland I am seriously thinking about moving there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smell the Fear Posted May 17, 2007 Share Posted May 17, 2007 If you look at irishpropertywatch.com and thepropertypin.com, some prices have dropped 30% ALREADY - even in prime Dublin areas. So nowhere is safe! The crash has barely started there, things are going to get very messy.As you say, sentiment is key - if Joe Public sees that prices CAN fall, he will be a lot more cautious. Credit tightening will do the rest. It is interesting to see so many asking price drops, but is there any evidence that comparable properties are now selling for less than they were last month, 3 months, 6 months or a year ago? These may simply be ridiculously overpriced properties being adjusted to market rate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hunthunthunt Posted May 17, 2007 Share Posted May 17, 2007 These may simply be ridiculously overpriced properties being adjusted to market rate. And your definition of a crash would be? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nohpc Posted May 17, 2007 Share Posted May 17, 2007 And your definition of a crash would be? A drop in price from previous sale prices? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smell the Fear Posted May 17, 2007 Share Posted May 17, 2007 A drop in price from previous sale prices? Exactly........ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tara747 Posted May 17, 2007 Author Share Posted May 17, 2007 If prices crash in Ireland I am seriously thinking about moving there. Me too. Now 40,332. It's shooting up! 41,000 by tomorrow??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosco Posted May 17, 2007 Share Posted May 17, 2007 Me too.Now 40,332. It's shooting up! 41,000 by tomorrow??? Where do you get the realtime figure from, I,ve just been guestimating from the graph on daftwatch site. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tara747 Posted May 17, 2007 Author Share Posted May 17, 2007 Where do you get the realtime figure from, I,ve just been guestimating from the graph on daftwatch site. I just go to daft.ie, click 'go' under 'where do you want to buy' and it shows up everything for sale. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drrayjo Posted May 17, 2007 Share Posted May 17, 2007 I just go to daft.ie, click 'go' under 'where do you want to buy' and it shows up everything for sale. Found 40,378 Matches as of 15.25 today, for example. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pod Posted May 17, 2007 Share Posted May 17, 2007 I just go to daft.ie, click 'go' under 'where do you want to buy' and it shows up everything for sale. And on the daftwatch graph you can click the "for sale" just above the graph. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ash4781 Posted May 17, 2007 Share Posted May 17, 2007 Is this the 'soft landing' scenario ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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