nohpc Posted April 11, 2007 Share Posted April 11, 2007 FaP informed me that they signed up a (singular) new EA in February. That is, just one new EA. Surely you do not believe they are contracting with 50-100 new EAs every day or week do you? Do you think that there are that many new EAs opening up shop in this country on a daily basis?Of course you don't. The number of EAs is more or less constant. The rising number of properties is due to multiple branches reporting in with higher levels of available properties. In fact the most recent stats show a higher number of properties and a decreasing number of EA branche reporting. What else would you expect? The HPI-MEW cycle is coming to an end--nothing lasts forever and people can't afford the miracle prices anymore. Once the FSA starts to "investigate" the subprime collapse that is starting here it will all be over and good riddance to the nightmare. As you can see--increasing supply relative to decreasing number of EA branches reporting. Sigh. Once again. I am not saying they contracted 100 new different estate agents. New agents may have joined which have many branches nationwide. Also FaP are targetting more of the UK rather than just London and the South where they started. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted April 11, 2007 Author Share Posted April 11, 2007 Sigh. Once again. I am not saying they contracted 100 new different estate agents. New agents may have joined which have many branches nationwide. Also FaP are targetting more of the UK rather than just London and the South where they started. Fap told me in an email they signed a new agent in February. If you do a search you will see the vast number of their listings are in the SE. Some are saying the rush to sell has something to do with HIPS but I think it has more to do with stress in the market--people can't afford it anymore. Negative cash flow for thousands of BTLers may also be behind the large numbers of "no chain" listings. If I was a market timer with an overgeared portfolio I would certainly be wanting to jump off the bandwagon at this point and take what profits there are before it is too late. The cycle should have ended in 2005 but for Gordon's HPI-boost from the IR cut. The cycle has gone on too long and has been artificially pumped up with irresponsible lending practices and subprime with a large dose of irrational exuberance. The miracle economy has also had dire social consequences and the sooner it is over the better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest d23 Posted April 11, 2007 Share Posted April 11, 2007 FaP informed me that they signed up a (singular) new EA in February. That is, just one new EA. Surely you do not believe they are contracting with 50-100 new EAs every day or week do you? Do you think that there are that many new EAs opening up shop in this country on a daily basis?Of course you don't. The number of EAs is more or less constant. The rising number of properties is due to multiple branches reporting in with higher levels of available properties. i'm amazed by the way you just ignore anything that doesn't fit in with what you've decided is happening as well you know FaP informed me of the following The numbers on the website are dynamic and so fluctuate minute to minute.The actual properties are all placed onto the website by the agents themselves using a number of software packages within their offices, so this is why the number of properties can change so much so quickly. The number of agents on the site actually refers to the number of offices, so although there are 5000 plus offices, there are in fact less actual companies advertising with us. The number of agents/offices does sometimes leap when we take on advertising from a large group. Recently we took on approximately 300 Your Move branches in one day and so obviously all the numbers suddenly shot up. Also, up until recently we have really been South East centric, but are now pushing the website into the North of England and into Scotland. To do this, the usual tactic is to offer agencies in these areas free trials and to do a huge marketing push, so lots of agencies join us in a relatively small amount of time. Some of these agencies see how well the site works for them and so stay on a paying basis, but some just use the trial as a piece of free advertising and then quit. "RB: Do you think that there are that many new EAs opening up shop in this country on a daily basis?" oh dear........... 25 pages of several people trying to explain something so basic to you and still you pretend you don't get it. By your logic there was 83 estate agents in the entire UK in 99. The additional estate agents existed before FaP set up a website! Hard tho it may be for you to believe there was an entire property industry in existence before the internet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ianbeale Posted May 7, 2007 Share Posted May 7, 2007 FaP informed me that they signed up a (singular) new EA in February. That is, just one new EA. Surely you do not believe they are contracting with 50-100 new EAs every day or week do you? Do you think that there are that many new EAs opening up shop in this country on a daily basis?Of course you don't. The number of EAs is more or less constant. The rising number of properties is due to multiple branches reporting in with higher levels of available properties. In fact the most recent stats show a higher number of properties and a decreasing number of EA branche reporting. What else would you expect? The HPI-MEW cycle is coming to an end--nothing lasts forever and people can't afford the miracle prices anymore. Once the FSA starts to "investigate" the subprime collapse that is starting here it will all be over and good riddance to the nightmare. Search 293,610 properties for sale and rent from 5,611 estate agents 30th March Search 294,116 properties for sale and rent from 5,613 estate agents 31st March Search 295,864 properties for sale and rent from 5,618 estate agents 2nd April Search 297,702 properties for sale and rent from 5,617 estate agents 5th April As you can see--increasing supply relative to decreasing number of EA branches reporting. 314,021 properties from 5779 agents now which is 54.33 per agent up from 53.00 reported on 5th april above Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest d23 Posted May 7, 2007 Share Posted May 7, 2007 314,021 properties from 5779 agents now which is 54.33 per agent up from 53.00 reported on 5th april above 2% rise in properties per agent over a month during spring nothing to get excited over yet imo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nohpc Posted May 8, 2007 Share Posted May 8, 2007 2% rise in properties per agent over a month during springnothing to get excited over yet imo I suppose it depends if there is an increase or decrease in buyers accompanying it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted May 8, 2007 Author Share Posted May 8, 2007 314,021 properties from 5779 agents now which is 54.33 per agent up from 53.00 reported on 5th april above I think this approach may be subject to a lot of error. The number of EAs contracted with FaP is more or less stable with variations only occurring in the number of branches within existing EA organisations reporting in. Thus, you cannot tell if there are more properties coming to market simply by dividing the number available by the number of branches reporting. Some EAs may just have a single branch uploading properties and others may have all or some of their branches uploading new listings. The recent trend is as follows: Search 245,319 properties for sale and rent from 4,957 estate agents 17th Jan 07 Search 266,562 properties for sale and rent from 5,288 estate agents 17th February Search 283,092 properties for sale and rent from 5,469 estate agents 17th March Search 299,641 properties for sale and rent from 5,629 estate agents 13th April Search 306,042 properties for sale and rent from 5,673 estate agents 23rd April Search 311,107 properties for sale and rent from 5,776 estate agents 2nd May Search 312,541 properties for sale and rent from 5,769 estate agents 4th May Search 314,137 properties for sale and rent from 5,780 estate agents 8th May http://www.findaproperty.com/ I have been looking for a rental property in Bucks for my daughter who is moving there for a new job. Most of the agents admit that there is growing supply and that rents are softening. Many believe "it can't go on" and that the boom days are probably over. This from the letting side of the business but most I spoke with seemed very knowledgeable and lacked that usual EA demeanour of arrogance that grew when people had to beg to be sold a house. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest grumpy-old-man Posted May 8, 2007 Share Posted May 8, 2007 I think this approach may be subject to a lot of error. The number of EAs contracted with FaP is more or less stable with variations only occurring in the number of branches within existing EA organisations reporting in. Thus, you cannot tell if there are more properties coming to market simply by dividing the number available by the number of branches reporting. Some EAs may just have a single branch uploading properties and others may have all or some of their branches uploading new listings.The recent trend is as follows: Search 245,319 properties for sale and rent from 4,957 estate agents 17th Jan 07 Search 266,562 properties for sale and rent from 5,288 estate agents 17th February Search 283,092 properties for sale and rent from 5,469 estate agents 17th March Search 299,641 properties for sale and rent from 5,629 estate agents 13th April Search 306,042 properties for sale and rent from 5,673 estate agents 23rd April Search 311,107 properties for sale and rent from 5,776 estate agents 2nd May Search 312,541 properties for sale and rent from 5,769 estate agents 4th May Search 314,137 properties for sale and rent from 5,780 estate agents 8th May http://www.findaproperty.com/ I have been looking for a rental property in Bucks for my daughter who is moving there for a new job. Most of the agents admit that there is growing supply and that rents are softening. Many believe "it can't go on" and that the boom days are probably over. This from the letting side of the business but most I spoke with seemed very knowledgeable and lacked that usual EA demeanour of arrogance that grew when people had to beg to be sold a house. RB, that's a huge rise in properties isn't it ? about 30% ish in 3-4 months Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Willy Weasel Posted May 8, 2007 Share Posted May 8, 2007 RB, that's a huge rise in properties isn't it ?about 30% ish in 3-4 months It's a rise from 49.5 properties per agent to 54.3 properties per agent. I'm looking for more than 70 properties per agent as a sign of oversupply. I'm hoping the numbers will have shot up dramatically by the end of this month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crashman Begins Posted May 8, 2007 Share Posted May 8, 2007 Looks like people are sellin up. Find safey people the bull run has begun Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest grumpy-old-man Posted May 8, 2007 Share Posted May 8, 2007 It's a rise from 49.5 properties per agent to 54.3 properties per agent. I'm looking for more than 70 properties per agent as a sign of oversupply. I'm hoping the numbers will have shot up dramatically by the end of this month. yes, I think it will rise very quickly, very soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notthereyet Posted May 12, 2007 Share Posted May 12, 2007 (edited) Bulls on the run i think it is more like a stampede Edited May 12, 2007 by TIMSY Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CareBearStare Posted May 12, 2007 Share Posted May 12, 2007 I think this approach may be subject to a lot of error. The number of EAs contracted with FaP is more or less stable with variations only occurring in the number of branches within existing EA organisations reporting in. Thus, you cannot tell if there are more properties coming to market simply by dividing the number available by the number of branches reporting. Some EAs may just have a single branch uploading properties and others may have all or some of their branches uploading new listings.The recent trend is as follows: Search 245,319 properties for sale and rent from 4,957 estate agents 17th Jan 07 Search 266,562 properties for sale and rent from 5,288 estate agents 17th February Search 283,092 properties for sale and rent from 5,469 estate agents 17th March Search 299,641 properties for sale and rent from 5,629 estate agents 13th April Search 306,042 properties for sale and rent from 5,673 estate agents 23rd April Search 311,107 properties for sale and rent from 5,776 estate agents 2nd May Search 312,541 properties for sale and rent from 5,769 estate agents 4th May Search 314,137 properties for sale and rent from 5,780 estate agents 8th May http://www.findaproperty.com/ I have been looking for a rental property in Bucks for my daughter who is moving there for a new job. Most of the agents admit that there is growing supply and that rents are softening. Many believe "it can't go on" and that the boom days are probably over. This from the letting side of the business but most I spoke with seemed very knowledgeable and lacked that usual EA demeanour of arrogance that grew when people had to beg to be sold a house. Search 318,942 properties for sale and rent from 5804 estate agents 12th may Hmmm...I make that an increase of 7,825 properties in less than 2 weeks! Thats a 2.46% increase in properties and a 0.48% increase in estate agents since the 2nd May. If we look at all the figures since 17th January, we see a total of 73,623 extra properties with 847 extra estate agents. This equates to an increase of 23.8% of properties and 14.59% inrease in EA's based on todays total figure . That, to me, is SUBSTANTIAL! Okay, now this issue of using findaproperty.com figures is contentious so let us, for arguments sake, take the mean properties per estate agent from the above figures. On January 17th 2007 we get an average 49.49 properties per estate agent. This increases to an average of 54.95 per EA today. This is an overall increase of 9.94% If we break this down further, and forgive me if I am taking liberties here but I don't think I am, then going on these figures, findaproperty.com's EA's are increasing their stock of properties on average by 30% yoy !!!! Stick that in your pipe and smoke it!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dog Posted May 12, 2007 Share Posted May 12, 2007 Each week more sellers are putting their houses on the market. The only buyers going into the estate agents however have large tell tale scars on their foreheads. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
refusnik Posted May 12, 2007 Share Posted May 12, 2007 Looks like people are sellin up. Looks like people are trying to sell up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
65243 Posted May 12, 2007 Share Posted May 12, 2007 i'm amazed by the way you just ignore anything that doesn't fit in with what you've decided is happening the man is a bible bashing christian, what else do you expect?? his style of posting makes a lot more sense when you remember that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
refusnik Posted May 12, 2007 Share Posted May 12, 2007 the man is a bible bashing christian, what else do you expect?? his style of posting makes a lot more sense when you remember that If this is a public backlash, can I have a go at gigantic signatures. Manic posters should be banned from signatures altogether if you ask me... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crashman Begins Posted May 24, 2007 Share Posted May 24, 2007 Still increasing RB ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdc Posted May 25, 2007 Share Posted May 25, 2007 Still increasing RB ? Fairly dramatically actually, though I'm unpersuaded it means anything. HIPS+Spring+more agents signing up to FaP - people saying this is the same as MIRAS are wrong I think. That caused a boom in demand then a collapse in demand, so a price spike and collapse. This is causing a boom in supply then a collapse, so potentially a correction in prices then a further surge. Search 245,319 properties for sale and rent from 4,957 estate agents 17th Jan 07 Search 266,562 properties for sale and rent from 5,288 estate agents 17th February Search 283,092 properties for sale and rent from 5,469 estate agents 17th March Search 299,641 properties for sale and rent from 5,629 estate agents 13th April Search 306,042 properties for sale and rent from 5,673 estate agents 23rd April Search 311,107 properties for sale and rent from 5,776 estate agents 2nd May Search 312,541 properties for sale and rent from 5,769 estate agents 4th May Search 314,137 properties for sale and rent from 5,780 estate agents 8th May Search 318,942 properties for sale and rent from 5804 estate agents 12th May Search 335,119 properties for sale and rent from 5971 estate agents 26th May Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted May 25, 2007 Author Share Posted May 25, 2007 Still increasing RB ? No, I would not describe the number of new listings on findaproperty as "increasing." It is more like a Biblical deluge of Noahic proportions! Today's numbers are a huge increase over yesterday's: Search 335,119 properties for sale and rent from 5,971 estate agents Search 311,107 properties for sale and rent from 5,776 estate agents* 2nd May Search 314,137 properties for sale and rent from 5,780 estate agents 8th May Search 320,190 properties for sale and rent from 5,821 estate agents 15th May Search 321,307 properties for sale and rent from 5,829 estate agents 16th May Search 323,579 properties for sale and rent from 5,831 estate agents 18th May Search 326,191 properties for sale and rent from 5,873 estate agents 19th May Search 328,649 properties for sale and rent from 5,914 estate agents 22nd May Search 331,689 properties for sale and rent from 5,944 estate agents 23rd May Search 335,119 properties for sale and rent from 5,971 estate agents 25th May _________________________________ *According to Findaproperty, a new multiple branch agent was signed up in February. The wide variations in the number of EAs reporting is reflecting multiple branches within an EA organization reporting in with increasing numbers of available property. The large swings in the number of agent reporting are also due to individual policies of each EA signed up with Findaproperty. Some EAs report all new listings through one branch and others leave reporting to the individual branch. Thus, the figures are an indication of increasing supply only and are not an indication of more or less business per agent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted May 25, 2007 Author Share Posted May 25, 2007 Search 318,942 properties for sale and rent from 5804 estate agents 12th mayHmmm...I make that an increase of 7,825 properties in less than 2 weeks! Thats a 2.46% increase in properties and a 0.48% increase in estate agents since the 2nd May. If we look at all the figures since 17th January, we see a total of 73,623 extra properties with 847 extra estate agents. This equates to an increase of 23.8% of properties and 14.59% inrease in EA's based on todays total figure . That, to me, is SUBSTANTIAL! Okay, now this issue of using findaproperty.com figures is contentious so let us, for arguments sake, take the mean properties per estate agent from the above figures. On January 17th 2007 we get an average 49.49 properties per estate agent. This increases to an average of 54.95 per EA today. This is an overall increase of 9.94% If we break this down further, and forgive me if I am taking liberties here but I don't think I am, then going on these figures, findaproperty.com's EA's are increasing their stock of properties on average by 30% yoy !!!! Stick that in your pipe and smoke it!! You have overlooked one important fact: According to Findaproperty, a new multiple branch agent was signed up in February. The wide variations in the number of EAs reporting is reflecting multiple branches within an EA organization reporting in with increasing numbers of available property. The large swings in the number of agent reporting are also due to individual policies of each EA signed up with Findaproperty. Some EAs report all new listings through one branch and others leave reporting to the individual branch. Thus, the figures are an indication of increasing supply only and are not an indication of more or less business per agent. "Per EA" is meaningless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wrongmove Posted May 25, 2007 Share Posted May 25, 2007 So props per EA is upfrom 53.9 to 56.1 so far in May, an increase of 4%. This tallies well with Rightmove, but is lower than the national average, especially considering that it includes rentals. This could explain why the SE and London continue to boom, whereas prices seem fairly flat across the rest of the country. "Per EA" is meaningless. RB, you are or were a lawyer? I'll bet you wouldn't try to defend that statement in court on a "no win, no fee" basis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted May 25, 2007 Author Share Posted May 25, 2007 (edited) So props per EA is upfrom 53.9 to 56.1 so far in May, an increase of 4%. This tallies well with Rightmove, but is lower than the national average, especially considering that it includes rentals. This could explain why the SE and London continue to boom, whereas prices seem fairly flat across the rest of the country. RB, you are or were a lawyer? I'll bet you wouldn't try to defend that statement in court on a "no win, no fee" basis. The "per EA" is meaningless for the reasons stated in my footnote. We have to admit supply is rising dramatically. Why deny it--even the EAs are admitting it now: http://www.thisisleicestershire.co.uk/disp...;pNodeId=178950 HOUSE PRICES 'ABOUT TO FALL' BY ANAS KASAK BUSINESS REPORTER 10:30 - 24 May 2007 Estate agents today predicted a slowdown in the housing market in Leicestershire after the delay in the introduction of Home Information Packs (HIPs). ....../ "The last two to three weeks has seen people rushing to put their homes up for sale. The reason FaP are showing a dramatic rise in the number of properties is, as quoted above: there is a RUSH on. The herd is starting to stampede. FaP are just reflecting that simple fact. No need to try to spin it any other way. Edited May 25, 2007 by Realistbear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wrongmove Posted May 25, 2007 Share Posted May 25, 2007 The herd is starting to stampede. FaP are just reflecting that simple fact. No need to try to spin it any other way. But that is the problem RB. The FaP figures simply do not reflect this simple theory (just because it is what you want to believe does not make it a "fact"). As you know, I too have a VI in falling prices, but you also know that EAs hate the idea of HIPs, and they are not the most honest of operators. Their press releases will also contain anti-HIPs spin. Let's see if they keep on about rising supply now they have got their way and HIPs have been put back again. Your footnote does not explain anything. You talk of the actions of 1 EA in Feb. The FaP figures contain data from thousands of EAs in May. It really doesn't matter how the EAs upload their data to FaP, as long as FaP publish the total props and the total EAs. If many EAs were pretending to be just one, as per your footnote, this would actually distort the props per EA upwards, not downwards! FaP tell us how many props they have. They also tell us how many EAs they represent. Divide the first figure by the second, and you have the props per EA. What is so complex about that, that you cannot grasp it? You tell us you are a good Christian, and I am led to believe that implies you should be honest. Would you defend the statement "props per EA is meaningless" in court on a "no win, no fee"? Can you put your hand on your heart and swear you really believe that statement? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest d23 Posted May 25, 2007 Share Posted May 25, 2007 The "per EA" is meaningless for the reasons stated in my footnote. We have to admit supply is rising dramatically. Why deny it no one is denying supply is increasing RB; I just think you overstate the magnitude (biblical proportions ) the increase per EA is less than 2005 and the same as last year and as for your footnote, it makes no sense and I'm actually a bit embarrassed for you every time i read it; FaP's explanation makes perfect sense The numbers on the website are dynamic and so fluctuate minute to minute.The actual properties are all placed onto the website by the agents themselves using a number of software packages within their offices, so this is why the number of properties can change so much so quickly. The number of agents on the site actually refers to the number of offices, so although there are 5000 plus offices, there are in fact less actual companies advertising with us. The number of agents/offices does sometimes leap when we take on advertising from a large group. Recently we took on approximately 300 Your Move branches in one day and so obviously all the numbers suddenly shot up. Also, up until recently we have really been South East centric, but are now pushing the website into the North of England and into Scotland. To do this, the usual tactic is to offer agencies in these areas free trials and to do a huge marketing push, so lots of agencies join us in a relatively small amount of time. Some of these agencies see how well the site works for them and so stay on a paying basis, but some just use the trial as a piece of free advertising and then quit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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