Northern Ireland

[talksalot81]

Updated the inflation chart and the last 3 quarters do change things significantly. In NI we are now nearly 40% above our previous peak and are in fact less than 10% below the all time high for the whole of the UK. The UK (as a whole) also starts to look that little bit worse as well, though nowhere near as bad.

Now I'd best go and do some of my real work....

[pod]

http://216.239.59.104/search?q=cache:WbdVg...lient=firefox-a

http://www.propertynews.com/brochure.php?r...amp;p=PNC200816

[paul65]

Interesting that no Belfast based chartered surveyors were able to comment on the market... they are all to busy scheming and loosing dead weight before the plunge next year.

That ikea ad that someone posted about is excellent

Latest Survey update from the RICS with NI EA comments.

RICS housing market survey United Kingdom - November 2007

RICS housing market survey UK - Nov 2007

Net price balance most negative since May 2005

• Newly agreed sales decline at fastest pace since April 1999

• Market conditions loosest since October 2005

• Price expectations lowest level since Oct 1998

Sentiment in the housing market deteriorated further in

November, with the balance of surveyors turning the most

negative since May 2005. For the three months to

November, 40.6% more surveyors reported a fall in prices

than a rise, compared to 23.4% reporting a decline in

October. Falls in the price balance are being driven by

weakening property demand, although supply, whilst still

contracting, is not falling as quickly as in recent months.

Comments from NI EA's are as follows:

NORTHERN IRELAND

Lisburn – Co Antrim

Bill McCann Esq MRICS

Bill McCann Estate Agency

“Low level of activity across all price sectors. Although pipeline registrations

building for early New Year anticipate sales over first quarter of 2008 could remain slow.”

Lisburn – Co Antrim

Tom McClelland Esq FRICS

McClelland & Salter

“Sales are achieved when there is a robust view taken on asking price.”

Enniskillen – Co Fermanagh

Harold Montgomery Esq FRICS

Montgomery Finlay & Co.

“Current high interest rates and general lack of confidence.”

Warrenpoint – Co Down

Ciara Aiken MRICS

Best Property Services

“There is no confidence in the market at the moment which is causing people to

step back from purchasing. Also there is little investors and first time buyers at the

moment so demand is low and supply is high.”

Londonderry – County Londonderry

Aidan Conway Esq BSc MRICS

Patrick Andrews Chartered Surveyors

“Property market is very sluggish with approximately 10% drop in value of

smaller investment property under £200K.”

[FrustratedFTB]

Probably listed on the home page but here we go:

http://u.tv/BusinessNews/index.asp?iNewsID...Date=18/12/2007

All those BTLs looking for tenants!

Just another thought, I would add that I believe around the Lisburn Area one of the major 'employers' in NI that has seen a big reduction over the last couple of years will most likely be selling off many more properties in the next few years. Many of the main facilites are being sold off and more may come on the market down to a core of 13 facilities I believe.

They currently have a need for accomondation in the far east but not so much the middle east these days!

Just a thought for those looking in the Lisburn area given all the building plus other supply coming to market.

I hope that makes sense!

Edited December 18, 2007 by FrustratedFTB

[jackster1]

don't know if this hads been commented on already on this thread but Ikea never got the big turnout they expected for their opening day

sign of a credit crunch? people don't have the cash and I don't think they offer finance options like REID DFS etc either

[Jacko79]

Interesting post about the rental market. Some questions though (if y'all might be so good to get back to me on)

1) Is this the UK in general, rather than just our own wee province?

2) How can rent be increasing if there is oversupply? (This would seem to fly in the face of economic theory)

3) What would be the average rent now for a standard 2 bed apartment in Belfast? I know I was paying £500/mth, but I moved out in September 2006.

Oh, one last thing - Is it possible we might see all at once - 1) falling prices 2) oversupply of rental apartments leading to BTL offloading some meaning MORE oversupply on the selling market ... 3) anyone remember all those empty properties across NI reported on the news last year (I think 45,000 was quoted) surely it makes no sense for an investor to hold on to them! and 4) captial gains reduction in April!

Its ALMOST a perfect storm!

Righto - time to head into the City Centre for some "shaappen"!

[Sogy]

3) What would be the average rent now for a standard 2 bed apartment in Belfast? I know I was paying £500/mth, but I moved out in September 2006.

We're paying £525 for a modern 3-bed townhouse (apparently, until our landlord manages to sell it ), now similar ones are advertised for rent at £550. However, lats (aka apartments) are often more expensive: those in the city centre and along the river can cost as much as £700-800.

[Vespasian]

Righto - time to head into the City Centre for some "shaappen"!

Good luck, I was down earlier and it was horrible - apart from the drink in the pub!

[YoungFTB]

We're paying £525 for a modern 3-bed townhouse (apparently, until our landlord manages to sell it ), now similar ones are advertised for rent at £550. However, lats (aka apartments) are often more expensive: those in the city centre and along the river can cost as much as £700-800.

Most of those city apartments have been advertised on propertynews for 6 - 12 months, I don't see many people paying that amount for rent.

[tara747]

don't know if this hads been commented on already on this thread but Ikea never got the big turnout they expected for their opening day

sign of a credit crunch? people don't have the cash and I don't think they offer finance options like REID DFS etc either

I was surprised at that too. I think it is a sign that money really is tight.

Interesting post about the rental market. Some questions though (if y'all might be so good to get back to me on)

1) Is this the UK in general, rather than just our own wee province?

2) How can rent be increasing if there is oversupply? (This would seem to fly in the face of economic theory)

3) What would be the average rent now for a standard 2 bed apartment in Belfast? I know I was paying £500/mth, but I moved out in September 2006.

Oh, one last thing - Is it possible we might see all at once - 1) falling prices 2) oversupply of rental apartments leading to BTL offloading some meaning MORE oversupply on the selling market ... 3) anyone remember all those empty properties across NI reported on the news last year (I think 45,000 was quoted) surely it makes no sense for an investor to hold on to them! and 4) captial gains reduction in April!

Its ALMOST a perfect storm!

Righto - time to head into the City Centre for some "shaappen"!

1. The rental oversupply is probably worse in NI than in the rest of the UK.

2. Rent is not increasing. BTLs would love to increase it but can't - unless they want months of voids.

3. Rents are static (and falling in real terms).

We're paying £525 for a modern 3-bed townhouse (apparently, until our landlord manages to sell it ), now similar ones are advertised for rent at £550. However, lats (aka apartments) are often more expensive: those in the city centre and along the river can cost as much as £700-800.

God help any fool who pays that kind of money.

[subby]

700-800 rent for a shoebox...just because it's in the city centre

no mission. My lease is up in the summer and I'll be looking to haggle on the cost of a new place or a reduction in rent. I'm paying £400 a month for a 2 bedroom house in Carnmoney just now and double that cost for an apartment is bonkers....

I wanna see the BTL peeps get their asses SOOOOOOOOO burnt

ho...ho....ho

[Sogy]

God help any fool who pays that kind of money.

Them ain't no fools ma'am, them are yappees with lotsa dough. Us rednecks prefer to live in 'em houses which are cheaper.

[subby]

Just incase I can't get online over Xmas....I want to thanks everyone who has posted their, sometimes close to the edge, rants and bits and bobs of info from other media. Although I don't post a HUGE amount on here I lurk and enjoy reading the likes of Pod, Tara, Sogy, Talks and others....

Hope and I mean this, Hope EVERYONE on the NI thread has a great peaceful Xmas and a cracking new year

[sdoey]

Just incase I can't get online over Xmas....I want to thanks everyone who has posted their, sometimes close to the edge, rants and bits and bobs of info from other media. Although I don't post a HUGE amount on here I lurk and enjoy reading the likes of Pod, Tara, Sogy, Talks and others....

Hope and I mean this, Hope EVERYONE on the NI thread has a great peaceful Xmas and a cracking new year

Yep, Merry Christmas to you all from here on the

North Coast!! Lets hope for soem cheap gifts next year!

[tara747]

Please no more large font... I am reading this at work and trying to be discreet!

Thanks for the Christmas messages though.

[subby]

Please no more large font... I am reading this at work and trying to be discreet!

Thanks for the Christmas messages though.

then quit surfing on your company's time

get back to work heh hehe j/k

[mgr]

I spoke to and estate agent outside Belfast about the situation yesterday. He is in favour of further large drops in the market and thinks it will happen in the spring. He says that in his town prices need to come back to £100k for a first time buyer home. In the spring a typical one would have gone for £220k, and now you could get it if you bid £160k. So he said "we're half way there" cheerily. I don't think he expects his own business to pick up until we do get there, so now people like him will be making it their business to make that happen.

[sdoey]

Talking to a prominent person in local government on Monday night and informed that a developer in North Antrim has been instructed to hand over all deeds to unsold new builds, all his land and his own personal property, alleged to be into the bank for £200 million.

I doubt if you could shift land that was selling easily for £1 million last year a any price most developers are in to deep with the banks and the banks are crapping themselves.

Serpico, good to see your posting on here tonight!! Merry Christmas!!

from a fellow north coaster!!

[Serpico]

Serpico, good to see your posting on here tonight!! Merry Christmas!!

from a fellow north coaster!!

Gtreetings and a happy Christmas to you and all the posters on the record breaking Norn Iron forum.

I think our NI forum will become the hard core property crash porn forum next year.

Even the minister in the local church was wingeing last Sunday about takings being down 10% and the inctreased costs of the overheds and upkeep. I suppose they could always charge for the tea, sandwhiches and traybakes at the funerals to raise a few quid.

[tigsrenting]

May I add Merry Christmas to all in NI. I love reading your thread.

Special greetings to Serpico and thanks for your posts about your life.

[FrustratedFTB]

Hi folks... happy Christmas to everyone..

Those posts if true re the dvelopers getting loans called in by the banks is pretty scary stuff - not a happy Christmas for many developers, estate agents it looks like....

re Rents of city centre apartments - crazy that rents are touching £800 - £900 . Some of these must be BTL'ers who bought at top of market with a large mortgage.... I rented out my 2 bed riverside Apt for £450 a month, clearing £323 after Rates and Mngt Charge, no mortgage thankfully. It isn't the fanciest Apt but perfectly good and could have got more but decided to stay below market rent which ensured continually rented for 5 years rather than risk 'voids' or having to pay a months rent to letting agent everytime they got new tenant. Of course, I shoulda sold a number of months back as no longer getting a capital gain and sticking money in bank would earn more interest than rental income generated. oh well Que Sera Sera.........

I'm interested to see what happens at the Obel in 2 years, given that according to old web articles, approx 182 Apts units were purchased for between £90k and £450k in 2005, then now this latest release was from £160k to approx £700 - 800k a doubling of the price! Come completion, if the market is still in the state it is in, or worse, there could be a scenario whereby a lot of the investors in the 1st release sell out to try and head for the door taking what immediate profit there is, which could really affect values of apts within the whole block. It could be disaster for those who purchased recently at high price. Alternatively, 1st release investors, because of having a lower mortage to cover, charge a cheaper rent than those who have bought in latest release at higher price bringing attainable rents for whole block lower. There is also the concern as to whether, with many lenders now unwilling to lend against new build towers whether all those signed up after paying only 10% deposit will be able to get a mortgage, and be unable to complete, or be required to pay an extra 30% downpayment. Having such a large differential of prices within the same block could cause problems at completion time I think, what about anyone else?

Best wishes to all over Christmas & New Year..

i think I heard a rumour that it was was all sold to one investor when it was initally announced or released!

[grapevine]

http://www.armaghonline.com/article_180.shtml

[Sogy]

Merry Christmas to ya'll!

Yes, loved ones are more important than bricks & mortar, but we need the latter to house the former in.

And, first and foremost, we need steadily growing house prices, so we can MEW before next Christmas and buy nice presents to our loved ones!

Therefore, let the market revive in the New Year and resume a healthy 50% annual growth. Meanwile all of us should jump on The Ladder ASAP. And please don't complain you can't get enough mortgage - Shared Ownership can help us all.

[Serpico]

It is the Northern Bank who have allegedly demanded the deeds to all properties and land including the home owned from the North Antrim developer I mentioned.

From my own experience on the mainland in the 80s crash the banks make the Goodfellas look like the Salvation Army, it does not matter how good a client you have been over the previous 20 or 30 years or how much profit they have had mde out of you in the good times they shaft you every which way they can with compounding interest and massive charges then strip you naked and drag you through the streets naked tied up in barbed wire.

One moment your having nice fountain pen handwritten letters from the banks regional director inviting you to lunch, then you can't even get the fecker on the phone and your dealing with there security department and treated like shite and wanting you your wife and children potless on the streets.

Norn Iron has never seen it like it was on the mainland in the 80s and again in the 90s because it nver xperienced a house price bubble and were probably better off for it, then it was caused by high interest rates but the personal debts did not exist no we have the biggest personal debts with compoundng interest in the world, credit card companies jacking interest rates to 30% after 'revewing your account sir madame'. Provident offering loans with an interest of 183.2%.

Japan dropped interest to 0% and property prices dropped from £300K to £50K and ten years later they still have not recovered and they have a huge manufacturing base and exports.

We ain't seen nothing yet, no cashflow means poverty and starvation. Debt not high interest rates will be the killer this time and it could take ten years or more to recover just like it did on the mainland after the 90s crash. Ah but property never goes down yeah I feckin know thats why £700ks worth of commercial and domestic property and my home valued by the bank in 1978 only bought in £180K in a distressed sale and the biggest and best prime location commercial took five year to sell for less than one fifth of the baks original valuation.

And I was one of the very lucky ones who walked away with a few quid in my pocket and a roof over my head bought and paid for albeit not what we had been used to for the previous ten years.

I hope I am wrong because these things affect everyone even those of whose who own our homes outright and have cash in the bank and debt free,

There could be some very hard times coming down for a lot of hardworking deceint people. one fact everyone overlooks is that you NEVER own your own home you only RENT IT FROM THE BANK UNTIL YOU MAKE THE FINAL PAYMENT and they hand over the deeds or you paid cash in firt place. Be in no doubt default and they will put you on the street faster that a exocet missile and the hound you for any shortfall, even if you have mortgage indemnity insurance that only cover the banks loss

and the insurera can hunt you down like a dog for twelve years.

Never ever buy a property leasehold that includes flats luxury aprtments you will neber own the land

they sit on and the only real value is in the land not the building.

[Jacko79]

Did any of you see the article in the Daily Mirror yesterday by a women (cant remember her name) who is a mortgage broker saying that she sees Nationwide's prediction of a 5% drop for NI in 08 as a "conservative estimate", and predicts around a 20% fall, especially outside Belfast?