simon99 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 (edited) "Were you talking to me"? I agree that excessive immigration leads to a percieved shortage in housing.. And a percieved shortage can lead to speculation and thus higher prices. The main driver for HPI is lax bank lending.. If the banks were to return to 3* multiples tomoorow HPI would be over at a stroke.. It will be over soon.. Patience is needed.. Yes I was. And yes lax lending is a huge driver of HPI, and so is the increase in our population, or is mass immigration only causing perceived population growth? Unfortunately whilst there are more and more people competing for a housing stock that can't keep up with demand the banks aren't going to return to 3x multiples which is where your argument falls to bits. (and don't bother telling me there are 800,000 empty homes in the UK because thats enough for only a couple of years immigration at current levels even if they were all seized and in a state fit for the open market which they won't/aren't). The banks are doing the complete opposite and are RELAXING their lending criteria safe in the knowledge there are enough people prepared prepared to buy into the HPI dream and backed by a government committed to promoting property investment and propping house prices up, even the opposition want to prop prices up. Investors continue to have an endless supply of tenants and low interest rates. Labour has created the property investors dream and it is a disgrace that society has been divided by housing under a supposedly socialist leaning government. Edited October 12, 2006 by simon99 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamnumerate Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 When that happens the 'problem' of immigration is likely to be forgotten. Immigrants who came here solely to enjoy the good time will pack their cases and head back to Bulgaria for a better paid job (or at least a job of some kind). Those who stay will be pretty tough cookies and likely to have put down roots and made a succes of themselves here. I don't think mass immigration is trouble free or that the floodgates should be chopped up for firewood, but lets not get carried away with this one. iamnummerate mentioned some time ago that Japan had practically no immigrants - high property prices unheard of there, of course! But actually that is a bad argument property prices in Japan are high because it is a very crowded country. What causes high prices is over crowding and easy credit. If immigration causes over crowding then immigration will cause high prices. However that does not mean that only countries with high immigration will have prices because over crowding could be for other reasons. Wuluf The main driver for HPI is lax bank lending..If the banks were to return to 3* multiples tomoorow HPI would be over at a stroke.. It will be over soon.. Patience is needed.. Really I think HPI is because of easy credit and immigration and therefore affordibility will only return to its normal level if a lot more houses are built or we have large amounts of emmigration. (I do think a crash is possible but not enough to make people wish they had not bought in 97 or even 2001). You disagree with me. Therefore when will HPI be over ? If in 3 years time prices are still at their current level in real terms or higher, would you agree with me that it is partially caused by immigration. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wuluf Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 ... Getting tired now.. Its been a long week.. It was just an idea.. If you feel that strongly about it I think it might be useful to spend energy on fashioning a workable solution and then publicise it on the one/some/all of the "anti-HPI" sites or somewhere else Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simon99 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 (edited) Most recent HPI occured before the Poles (EEs) arrived.. i.e. 2002/2003.. Imagine how high house prices would be if we'd seen mass immigration since 1997. Immigration from Poland has been estimated at 600,000 in the last 2 years alone, never mind the rest of immigration which was running in excess of 200,000 as far as I know. How on earth can half a million people arriving in a year not affect housing demand? I'm not surprised you're tired when you're arguing against simple maths an 8 year old could understand. Edited October 12, 2006 by simon99 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cuckoo Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 London is now a true global city and even i (having been in London for 10 years) have been struck by the sheer diversity and number of the incomers since 2001, and as others have said its not just Polish but people from all continents , all races and countries bar none are now represented here. It poses challenges for the education of schoolchildren as over 50% of all kids in London primary schools now don't have English as a second language and 25% were born abroad. This poses interesting questions. As does the strain on public services. I believe there will be growing pains but we can cope as we adapt and build, and we certainly shouldnt be stopping anyone that wants to come here and work hard and pay their dues, from doing so. If English people can't cope, they should retrain, reskill, and then better themselves. it used to be in the usual tourist places in London where you would hear all the languages, now its everwhere and you realise they're all living here rather than on a 2 week holiday. Last Saturday i was out in the West End as i am often, and it was the busiest i have ever seen it , just no more room on the pavements, traffic jams at 4am - its starting to resemble the bustle of Hong Kong. Quite amazing. I suppose this isn't for everyone though. i love it though and yes - the population in 2000 was projected to increase by 750,000 to 8.3m by 2016 - now it's only 10 years away. There are large public works projects in the pipeline and a huge amount of money being spent on improving the infraastructure now. We will cope. About 60-70,000 new people from all over the world are coming to live in the city each year. Yes they are flooding in. They have to live somewhere and no , they're not all prepared to live ten to a room as people often assume, many are professionals and people who are bringing money here, investing their own cash in homes and businesses, and are buying properties at the low, middle and high ends of the market in large numbers. It certainly isnt all slave labour that is coming in by any means, from what i see and the people i deal with every day at work. Many of the Europeans here are getting Anglicised pretty fast, and the only thing that gives their heritage away is often their foreign surname - watch for this trend to continue. For example there are about 100,000 French living in London, there are some french schools, clubs and places they go out ( a french ghetto?!) & they love their heritage of course but they also work within a sucessful British system, many in well paid jobs as they are ambitious and they contribute to making this spot a go ahead place and are also paying benefits through their taxes for chav , "native" scroungers. Look at it that way. The opportunities in and vibrancy of this town have never been better. The population's growing and so is its prosperity and the demand for property, I see no end to this anytime soon, the city has changed and has more in common with Hong Kong, New York or Shanghai in terms of economic fortunes than Sheffield or Nottingham. A point was made earlier about London market not being dependent on the traditional, mid 20's FTB's here. This is true You are operating in an international market for homes here against Chinese and Thai, South African second homers (and some just buy 2 bedders in modest parts of town, beleive me) as much as little Jonny who's just moved down from Rotherham to his new accountancy traineeship. British "natives" with inferior skills will be squeezed out by this new employment flexibiity, at all levels, particularly because English people don't tend to speak foreign languages. This places them at a real disadvantage, and i would strongly advise people to heed this because the UK is such a strong foreign investor in other countries. anyway bring it on i say. people can live in their little england world if they like but the world has moved on. and no, i'm not a labour stooge, i can't stand blair and brown but i'm not scared of change and this immigration is a good thing, generally , is my view. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wuluf Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 (edited) But actually that is a bad argument property prices in Japan are high because it is a very crowded country. What causes high prices is over crowding and easy credit. If immigration causes over crowding then immigration will cause high prices. However that does not mean that only countries with high immigration will have prices because over crowding could be for other reasons. Wuluf Really I think HPI is because of easy credit and immigration and therefore affordability will only return to its normal level if a lot more houses are built or we have large amounts of emigration. (I do think a crash is possible but not enough to make people wish they had not bought in 97 or even 2001). You disagree with me. Therefore when will HPI be over ? If in 3 years time prices are still at their current level in real terms or higher, would you agree with me that it is partially caused by immigration. To be honest.. I wouldn’t mind if immigration was reduced.. I don’t believe in an open door policy. On the other hand the EU treaty of Amsterdam requirements for the new EU countries would have to be implemented for 2012 anyway.. There are also things like the Geneva Convention that would be extremely difficult to change. Remember the security offered by the Geneva Convention works both ways. It is for our protection too. My main issue is that some people on this board tend to use the camouflage of legitimate discussion about the effect of immigration of housing to exclusively blame them for not only that ill but many others. Imagine how high house prices would be if we'd seen mass immigration since 1997. Immigration from Poland has been estimated at 600,000 in the last 2 years alone, never mind the rest of immigration which was running in excess of 200,000 as far as I know. How on earth can half a million people arriving in a year not affect housing demand? I'm not surprised you're tired when you're arguing against simple maths an 8 year old could understand. Hard work... See my previous post.. edit: (cant resist..) if you are correct and we had both effects from 1997 it probably would have been over by now.. Edited October 12, 2006 by Wuluf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simon99 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 (edited) What? even if it continued at 500,000 per year indefinitely? Immigration is not a bad thing, but unsustainable population growth for the sake of propping an overblown housing market and economy up is. The sensible lose out and the reckless win. As usual the pro-mass immigration / pro-endless population growth advocates ignore all the questions and try to laugh them off. I really wish we could fast forward the clock to see what sort of place an environmentally / socially unsustainable path we're heading down will end up like. Edited October 12, 2006 by simon99 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve99 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 Its another 'Bingo!' first prize for the govt, imigration keeping house prices high and wages low, where I live, a few years ago, houses standing empty waiting for a renter, now they are all full 6,8 or 10 to a house with new Polish types, definitly has put the gloss back on buy to let. As for jobs and wages, was not long ago that anybody could get a dogsbody job in London, not now, competition is high for the tackiest of jobs and the wages at the bottom end are down, was at the job centre a couple of weeks ago and noticed that 9 out of 10 jobs were minimum wage only, used to be in London that you were geting maybe about 20% more. Seems they want it both ways, high prices and low wages and whats realy annoying is that they are getting it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wuluf Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 (edited) ... Use either the "Quote" button or at least the name of the person you are replying to.. Even an 8 year old would know that Edited October 12, 2006 by Wuluf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simon99 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 (edited) Another non-comment. You know who I was replying to. Try and ask someone with the power of simple deduction to match the responses if you really can't work it out. Edited October 12, 2006 by simon99 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamnumerate Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 To be honest.. I wouldn’t mind if immigration was reduced.. I don’t believe in an open door policy. I agree On the other hand the EU treaty of Amsterdam requirements for the new EU countries would have to be implemented for 2012 anyway I don't want to be in the EU anyway I believe in democracy. My main issue is that some people on this board tend to use the camouflage of legitimate discussion about the effect of immigration of housing to exclusively blame them for not only that ill but many others. Hard work... I think that it is true. You could argue that it is not immigration that is the problem but NIMBYism and open immigration combined. As my sig suggests we can have large scale immigration if the Government takes on the NIMBIES of course that would be impossible as it would be political suicide. Getting tired now.. Its been a long week.. It was just an idea.. If you feel that strongly about it I think it might be useful to spend energy on fashioning a workable solution and then publicise it on the one/some/all of the "anti-HPI" sites or somewhere else I might try that. However I believe the country is governed by the rich guilty so any plans to reduce benefits to single mums or anyone would be unlikely to get anywhere. Other people already have come with good plans eg provide single mums with hostels, point system for immigrants etc and got nowhere. http://www.thewelfarestatewerein.com/ It is unlikely I can get any where. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
talby Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 If English people can't cope, they should retrain, reskill, and then better themselves. What happens if educated hard working English people have been made redundant through no fault of their own to make way for cheap imported people to take their job ? Will you still sneer at them ? Are you for real ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azogar Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 (edited) Unfortunately, Cuckoo is a sad troll who's sole purpose is to wind people up Edited October 12, 2006 by prophet-profit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justice Posted October 13, 2006 Share Posted October 13, 2006 That is OK. Also posted on this site is an artcle blaming immigrants for wage inflation. So I guess it all evens out Well, until tomorrow when immigrants are blamed for keep wages low again, and everyone is complaining about them sending money overseas! it's supply and demand so the more people we have to do a job then the cost of the labour goes down and i say this artcle about immigrants pushing wage up is disinformation planted by immigrants or the goverment as the sums don't add up at all. also i'm happy they send money back home and whites are leaving the UK because this will make any goverment sit up and listen, something they are not doing just now. just how many more towns do we need where whites feel alone and are not able to walk down the streets, how many would you say is fair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamnumerate Posted October 13, 2006 Share Posted October 13, 2006 What happens if educated hard working English people have been made redundant through no fault of their own to make way for cheap imported people to take their job ? Will you still sneer at them ? Are you for real ? Of course he will, he is a cleaner from Hong Kong who hates cleaning our streets and because of all the litter we drop hates us. That is why he unlike he wants the UK to be so crowded because it would make him feel at home. He also thinks our public services could cope with more people - another sign that he doesn't know much about this country. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cuckoo Posted October 13, 2006 Share Posted October 13, 2006 Of course he will, he is a cleaner from Hong Kong who hates cleaning our streets and because of all the litter we drop hates us. That is why he unlike he wants the UK to be so crowded because it would make him feel at home. He also thinks our public services could cope with more people - another sign that he doesn't know much about this country. i am for real and i think if English people get made redundant then they should retrain and reskill, it happens today. its not immigrants "fault". people expect such a comfortable life. we live in a global village today and you are in competition for your job and your livelyhood with 3bn other people, not the 30 million workers in this country. the sooner people realise that and get skills accordingly, the less cause they will have for complaint. its what international trade and companies are all about - they know no nation. like it or not , this is the way it is today and it will only get more so. and this isn't a wind up - its true. you shouldn't be scared of it - you can make your way in it ,it just takes adjustment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kris_77 Posted October 13, 2006 Share Posted October 13, 2006 Being EU citizens, the new immigrants would be eligible to vote in the 2008 general elections.Assuming that immigration from 'new' EU remains at currents levels, it could mean an extra 1.6 millions voters. No prices for guessing who they would be voting for...I think the open door policy to new EU is part of a well thought out strategy by Labour to create a new loyal underclass which would help them negate any swing in voter sentiment towards the Tories Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wuluf Posted October 13, 2006 Share Posted October 13, 2006 Another non-comment. You know who I was replying to. Try and ask someone with the power of simple deduction to match the responses if you really can't work it out. "No comment".... Of course he will, he is a cleaner from Hong Kong who hates cleaning our streets and because of all the litter we drop hates us. That is why he unlike he wants the UK to be so crowded because it would make him feel at home. He also thinks our public services could cope with more people - another sign that he doesn't know much about this country. Some actually like having a "working class" around.. It pushes up wages at the top end.. Not me though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tenroom Posted October 13, 2006 Share Posted October 13, 2006 I can't for the life of me understand why the f**k people are bitching about immigration so much. Regardless of which political party is in power, the UK has an obligation to allow anyone from the EU member states entry into this country. Believe it or not, other member states have as good if not better welfare systems than we do and they're not blaming their woes on the immigrants. Sure a lot of arrive and ask for housing but then again - as the show on tv the other night depicted - we've got more than our fair share of homegrown layabouts rinsing out the benefits system. It's not the nationality or the shade that counts, it's the mentality. We all need to be more vigilant when we realise people are taking the piss with the system. I, personally, ratted out the f***ers two doors up who just piss about all day listening to music and then go out on the lash 3 nights a week in designer clothes and expensive perfume. The benefits guys came down and ironed out - they don't lash it up so often now and one of 'em even goes out at the same time each morning so I'm assuming he's got himself a f***ing job ! Berating immigrants isn;t the way forward. I see lots of 'em absolutely GRAFT their tits off. My folks came here from the West Indies at the behest of the government of the day. The slogged it out for 35 years on bullsh*t money and saved enough to build their house back home to which they've now returned to live in luxury. They carried on through all the in-your-face racism of the late 50's (no PC laws back then), survived the Notting Hill riots, paid up for their citizenship when their island won independence from the Commonwealth even though they'd been here paying taxes for 20 years and never claimed benefits ONCE so let's stop blaming the country's woes on them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azogar Posted October 13, 2006 Share Posted October 13, 2006 Berating immigrants isn;t the way forward. I see lots of 'em absolutely GRAFT their tits off. My folks came here from the West Indies at the behest of the government of the day. The slogged it out for 35 years on bullsh*t money and saved enough to build their house back home to which they've now returned to live in luxury. They carried on through all the in-your-face racism of the late 50's (no PC laws back then), survived the Notting Hill riots, paid up for their citizenship when their island won independence from the Commonwealth even though they'd been here paying taxes for 20 years and never claimed benefits ONCE so let's stop blaming the country's woes on them. This board is too polarized, there have been some 'middle ground' comments reflecting the need for controlled immigration, but on the whole it has become a point-scoring exercise. With regard to EU Controls, France, Germany etc. have put limits on EU migration whereas UK, Ireland etc. haven't (as yet). With regard to the quote above - this is the reality of many migrants who come to this country - work hard, save, pay taxes and take xenophobic abuse. It's time to calm this board down a bit before it becomes a recruiting ad for the BNP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamnumerate Posted October 13, 2006 Share Posted October 13, 2006 (edited) Sure a lot of arrive and ask for housing but then again - as the show on tv the other night depicted - we've got more than our fair share of homegrown layabouts rinsing out the benefits system. You are right of course we do have lots of homegrown parasites but why left foreign ones come here. It's not the nationality or the shade that counts, it's the mentality. Well I disagree we can deport foreign layabouts (black/white/etc) sadly we can not deport homegrown ones (black/white/etc). My folks came here from the West Indies at the behest of the government of the day. The slogged it out for 35 years on bullsh*t money and saved enough to build their house back home to which they've now returned to live in luxury. They carried on through all the in-your-face racism of the late 50's (no PC laws back then), survived the Notting Hill riots, paid up for their citizenship when their island won independence from the Commonwealth even though they'd been here paying taxes for 20 years and never claimed benefits ONCE so let's stop blaming the country's woes on them. No one is blaming your parents. The problem is that a) we let scum in as well as people like your folks we are letting more people in than we have space for or rather more people than our infrasructure. IMHO the solutions are a)no immigrants can claim benefits for the first 2 or 3 years(like your folks) and no criminals are allowed to settle here and if immigrants break the law here - as most/all countries in the world do - they are deported. Are foreign criminals allowed to stay in your parent's home country ? That way you would a) reduce over crowding and reduce lots of racism. The only time my immigrant wife has suffered racism here was when she was with a benefit seeking friend (ie an immigrant who comes here for benefits) - may be a coincidence but I doubt it. We all need to be more vigilant when we realise people are taking the piss with the system. I, personally, ratted out the f***ers two doors up who just piss about all day listening to music and then go out on the lash 3 nights a week in designer clothes and expensive perfume. The benefits guys came down and ironed out - they don't lash it up so often now laugh.gif and one of 'em even goes out at the same time each morning so I'm assuming he's got himself a f***ing job ! Well done. I have done the same but nothing happened. I also informed on a bogus asylum seeker who gets a fortune likewise nothing happened. Edited October 13, 2006 by iamnumerate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wuluf Posted October 13, 2006 Share Posted October 13, 2006 (edited) and this isn't a wind up - its true. you shouldn't be scared of it - you can make your way in it ,it just takes adjustment. Cuckoo. Some people do not have motivation, ability, time, are the victims of unfortunate circumstance, or are simply unlucky.. You can do something about the first.. Not much about the others.. Given that there are more (in number terms) people above average intelligence/ability outside of the UK than within a truly open marketplace is bad news for the "average" UK employee. In a long time sequence, everything else being equal (i.e. level playing field) UK workers would lose out to foreign workers as global salaries shifted towards a new level. i.e. down in developed countries and up in non-developed nations. The shift effect would be further exacerbated if you factored in the effects of the oft held conviction that foreign workers are cheaper.. . That is what LJ, J, ian and the others are trying to say.. What they fail to take into account that it is not a free market.. That means that the levelling effect is reduced. As a semi closed market the domestic policy rational is that the effect of importing lots of hard working (low paid?) individuals into the UK will in turn feed back into productivity and GBP/pp and in turn lead to greater wealth for all. The feedback loop takes time.. I think that the UK gov. is of the opinion that the "first mover advantage" of gaining EE and non-EU graduates before the "rest" of the EU, even if they initially perform menial tasks, is compensation for the initial friction caused by the recent influx. edit: furthermore re: "the feedback loop" - more often than not the increased profitability results in disproportionate increases at the top end of the salary scale and increased returns for shareholders rather than a benefits for those at the bottom who bear the brunt of the initial effects of the new arrivals. edit: it is understandable that those at the bottom see no reason why they should in the main bear the initial cost of the immigration when others in society whom they perceive as being less "British" do not. in more direct terms. why should a brit whose family have been here for hundreds of years have to suddenly "work harder" just to stand still when his "family line" have contributed so much to the current state of the UK. Why should he alone have to bear the brunt of the (initial) cost Edited October 13, 2006 by Wuluf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Objective Developer Posted October 13, 2006 Share Posted October 13, 2006 (edited) More people enter than leave. You are right we could always build more homes on fields but this takes time. Also sometimes the land is in a flood plain which means new housing is a bad idea. You may well me numerate, but not that literate. Land is not the issue here – we are not running out of it nor are we running out of houses. What we have got is loads of credit. No credit = no buyers = lower prices. If it costs you ½ take home pay to fund £100k, then £100k would be about your limit. That £100k would be the price of a property. But when you can (at current IR levels) fund £250k with your salary, prices adjust accordingly. Credit is the key, not land, more homes, or anything else. I hate UKIP. Edited October 13, 2006 by Objective Developer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamnumerate Posted October 13, 2006 Share Posted October 13, 2006 You may well me numerate, but not that literate. . Ironic remark. Land is not the issue here – we are not running out of it nor are we running out of houses. What we have got is loads of credit. No credit = no buyers = lower prices. If it costs you ½ take home pay to fund £100k, then £100k would be about your limit. That £100k would be the price of a property. But when you can (at current IR levels) fund £250k with your salary, prices adjust accordingly. Credit is the key, not land, more homes, or anything else. I am sorry but that is not true. Of course credit is partially responsible for prices rising. However to say more demand does not affect prices is just crazy. So do you think that if 10 million people moved here prices would remain the same ? Or if 5 million emmigrated but IR went down prices would rise ? I hate UKIP. Opened minded I see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Objective Developer Posted October 13, 2006 Share Posted October 13, 2006 Ironic remark. I am sorry but that is not true. Of course credit is partially responsible for prices rising. However to say more demand does not affect prices is just crazy. So do you think that if 10 million people moved here prices would remain the same ? Or if 5 million emmigrated but IR went down prices would rise ? Opened minded I see. I’m not denying the effects of supply and demand – just saying that today it is not supply of houses that is the problem. I only said the UKIP bit to annoy you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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