Maghull Mike Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, staintunerider said: Even before Brown sold half of it less 600 odd tonnes doesn;t seem much and we now have half of not a lot! I was just looking this up France and Italy have 2 & a half 000 tonnes each, Germany 3 & a half thousand We're on a par with Kazakhstan who actually have goldmines in country! Expect a major row over Northern Ireland, as their be Gold in them there hills Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nero120 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 hours ago, staintunerider said: Even before Brown sold half of it less 600 odd tonnes doesn;t seem much and we now have half of not a lot! I was just looking this up France and Italy have 2 & a half 000 tonnes each, Germany 3 & a half thousand We're on a par with Kazakhstan who actually have goldmines in country! Yep you've clocked it. Basically our tin-pot little country has f*ck-all wealth, just a load of debt, IOUs and a bunch of zombie companies that can't pay the bills with interest rates at normal levels. Plus there is little reason to hope that our rentier establishment can stop molesting children long enough to actually do something about it. Things look very bad for the UK in the multi-polar world. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony_Teacake Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, 70PC said: There is definitely a 2008 smell in the air. Lenders are push debt onto to people like there is no tomorrow. I am getting more on my savings account than some mortgage rates on offer and lenders are offering 35 year loans to find takers. It is one of the ways they can try and keep this bubble going but from my point of view, these bubbles are now deflating. If these banks are not creating new loans they won't be able to keep making money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony_Teacake Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 (edited) I wanted to add this to my original post but there were too many words. America's top 20 Banks collectively have fired 61,500 over the last 12 months. When you look at the trajectory of where this is heading you'll see something much much bigger ahead of us so between January 1st and October 19th of 2023 banks quietly fired 20,000 employees and the largest story is that if you look at the big five banks they've cut about 20,000 jobs so far this year then the collective 60 days between October 20th to roughly December 31st roughly they fired another 42,000 employees this thing's ramping up and it's ramping up very very quickly I believe this year we're going to see a wave of Bank consolidation and mergers to likes of which we've never seen before. I know some people might say not a big deal but if you don't realize just look at how America's funded small businesses. Real Estate Investors entrepreneurs everyday Americans don't get funding from JP Morgan Chase and Morgan Stanley they get from the Local Credit Union and the small regional banks. That's where they get their funding and as these small Banks start to dry up the big banks are going to call all the shots it's going to get a lot harder to get funding and financing in the years to come. They are not going to be lending as much money as they don't need as many employees they don't need all these bank branches they need to reduce their expenses dramatically because they are walking into a very very very difficult time in 2024 and 2025 and need to position their expenses accordingly that's what this means but when you look at all the headwinds coming for America it's so obvious what happened to more office properties. More Office buildings landlords are giving properties back to lenders due to poor performance and high refinancing costs for owners to walk away. Some of these office buildings were bought for 100 million but they are now selling for 50 million, 40 million, and 30 million due to what's happening now in the economy and what is going on with interest rates and borrowing costs, these office vacancies well to put it nicely it's a blood bath that's forming right now with over $2.7 trillion in debt which has to get refinanced on Commercial properties from now until 2027 but what's shocking is 70% of that debt is held by small local Regional Banks so what's going to happen a lot of these small local Regional Banks they going to be folding up left right and centre that's what's going to happen I mean look at what's going on with car repossessions on the rise auto delinquency rates at the highest level since 1994 as of October. Just look at where credit card debt is right now it's through the banks. You know they're not dumb they don't they know this bank deposits drop year-over-year for the first time ever this is dating all the way back to 1994 US banking industry total deposits declined year-over-year for the first time in data going back to 1994 following a tumultuous period for the banking sector so if you look at it it's a really really big trend happening right now like buy now pay later skyrocketing absolutely skyrocketing consumers don't have the credit that's a problem it's a very very very big problem banks making fewer business loans because of recession fears it sure it could be recession fears but it's also more of a fear on the you know the the client that's borrowing the money they don't know if that client's going to be able to pay and so a lot of these banks they're not issuing these business loans like they used to but unfortunately what's going to happen is as Banks start to pull back from Lending there's going to be a lot more predatory lenders coming out left right and centre looking to fill that gap payday loans installment loans all of this going to become much much bigger I mean if people are financing groceries what do you think is going to happen when banks stop lending right that's what's going to happen a lot more predatory lending is going to be coming out. JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs are getting ready to go out there and acquire tons and tons of Bank branches and they're going to start to fire tons of employees and they're going to be replacing these employees with AI generative AI technology they're going to be reducing expenses dramatically and reducing offices in Bank branch locations that's what they're going to be doing. JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs are already rolling out some AI-powered programs right came out on December 22nd and look at this they say between 14% And 27% of all bank jobs will be gone just like that that's a massive 27%. This is huge 27% of Bank headcount process-oriented roles are at risk which is a huge number of employees. This is also going on in the UK. In 2024 you're going to have commercial real estate hitting the fan you're going to start to have a lot of consumers unable to pay back their loans and bank deposits continuing to shrink. Americans borrowing money for their businesses and two trillion has to get refinanced this year this year going from a 2-3% interest rate to a 7% interest rate now that's a very big problem. Edited January 7 by Tony_Teacake Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shlomo Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 53 minutes ago, Tony_Teacake said: I wanted to add this to my original post but there were too many words. America's top 20 Banks collectively have fired 61,500 over the last 12 months. When you look at the trajectory of where this is heading you'll see something much much bigger ahead of us so between January 1st and October 19th of 2023 banks quietly fired 20,000 employees and the largest story is that if you look at the big five banks they've cut about 20,000 jobs so far this year then the collective 60 days between October 20th to roughly December 31st roughly they fired another 42,000 employees this thing's ramping up and it's ramping up very very quickly I believe this year we're going to see a wave of Bank consolidation and mergers to likes of which we've never seen before. I know some people might say not a big deal but if you don't realize just look at how America's funded small businesses. Real Estate Investors entrepreneurs everyday Americans don't get funding from JP Morgan Chase and Morgan Stanley they get from the Local Credit Union and the small regional banks. That's where they get their funding and as these small Banks start to dry up the big banks are going to call all the shots it's going to get a lot harder to get funding and financing in the years to come. They are not going to be lending as much money as they don't need as many employees they don't need all these bank branches they need to reduce their expenses dramatically because they are walking into a very very very difficult time in 2024 and 2025 and need to position their expenses accordingly that's what this means but when you look at all the headwinds coming for America it's so obvious what happened to more office properties. More Office buildings landlords are giving properties back to lenders due to poor performance and high refinancing costs for owners to walk away. Some of these office buildings were bought for 100 million but they are now selling for 50 million, 40 million, and 30 million due to what's happening now in the economy and what is going on with interest rates and borrowing costs, these office vacancies well to put it nicely it's a blood bath that's forming right now with over $2.7 trillion in debt which has to get refinanced on Commercial properties from now until 2027 but what's shocking is 70% of that debt is held by small local Regional Banks so what's going to happen a lot of these small local Regional Banks they going to be folding up left right and centre that's what's going to happen I mean look at what's going on with car repossessions on the rise auto delinquency rates at the highest level since 1994 as of October. Just look at where credit card debt is right now it's through the banks. You know they're not dumb they don't they know this bank deposits drop year-over-year for the first time ever this is dating all the way back to 1994 US banking industry total deposits declined year-over-year for the first time in data going back to 1994 following a tumultuous period for the banking sector so if you look at it it's a really really big trend happening right now like buy now pay later skyrocketing absolutely skyrocketing consumers don't have the credit that's a problem it's a very very very big problem banks making fewer business loans because of recession fears it sure it could be recession fears but it's also more of a fear on the you know the the client that's borrowing the money they don't know if that client's going to be able to pay and so a lot of these banks they're not issuing these business loans like they used to but unfortunately what's going to happen is as Banks start to pull back from Lending there's going to be a lot more predatory lenders coming out left right and centre looking to fill that gap payday loans installment loans all of this going to become much much bigger I mean if people are financing groceries what do you think is going to happen when banks stop lending right that's what's going to happen a lot more predatory lending is going to be coming out. JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs are getting ready to go out there and acquire tons and tons of Bank branches and they're going to start to fire tons of employees and they're going to be replacing these employees with AI generative AI technology they're going to be reducing expenses dramatically and reducing offices in Bank branch locations that's what they're going to be doing. JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs are already rolling out some AI-powered programs right came out on December 22nd and look at this they say between 14% And 27% of all bank jobs will be gone just like that that's a massive 27%. This is huge 27% of Bank headcount process-oriented roles are at risk which is a huge number of employees. This is also going on in the UK. In 2024 you're going to have commercial real estate hitting the fan you're going to start to have a lot of consumers unable to pay back their loans and bank deposits continuing to shrink. Americans borrowing money for their businesses and two trillion has to get refinanced this year this year going from a 2-3% interest rate to a 7% interest rate now that's a very big problem. You could explain the job losses on tech. Technology is replacing people A lot of good well paying jobs are disappearing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 hours ago, shlomo said: None of these countries or groups are in complete agreement, the US can buy countries so making them into friends, democracy can change policies whereby making enemies into friends I really think it is between the US and China and victory will go to the country that can get most countries onside It is not fixed countries will easily change alliances if someone throws money at them The US could win if it sacrifices the White Middle Class, I wonder what the US does? The US has no money. It is sustained by financial tribute from the vassal states it occupies/subjugates and the use of the USD which it imposes by force and intimidation on global trade. The American economic model is that of Thames Water. A company that was privatised to generate a stream of dividends for its owner investors and did so only by failing to provide clean water for its customers and by failing to maintain the physical infrastructure of its network. The latter having become so degraded that it's now apparently in danger of collapse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petetong Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Another year, another catastrophism prediction. 😆 Why were all the previous ones wrong? Answer that before making yet another new dodgy prediction ✓✓✓ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony_Teacake Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 1 hour ago, Stewy said: Another year, another catastrophism prediction. 😆 Why were all the previous ones wrong? Answer that before making yet another new dodgy prediction ✓✓✓ You see the problem is these things don't always playout overnight. That is why so many Bulls like you and others don't understand. You keep telling us Morrisons on Teeside Park is chocka so nobody is struggling. That is your idea of how good the economy is. Tell me what I was wrong on? Did I ever say this crash will playout overnight? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, Tony_Teacake said: You see the problem is these things don't always playout overnight. That is why so many Bulls like you and others don't understand. You keep telling us Morrisons on Teeside Park is chocka so nobody is struggling. That is your idea of how good the economy is. Tell me what I was wrong on? Did I ever say this crash will playout overnight? I think the real sign of nobody struggling is that even the so-called poor have loads of takeaways, and bulging bellies. Nobody is going without, no matter how much they claim the opposite. Bellies don't lie... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staintunerider Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 17 hours ago, Tony_Teacake said: I wanted to add this to my original post but there were too many words. America's top 20 Banks collectively have fired 61,500 over the last 12 months. When you look at the trajectory of where this is heading you'll see something much much bigger ahead of us so between January 1st and October 19th of 2023 banks quietly fired 20,000 employees and the largest story is that if you look at the big five banks they've cut about 20,000 jobs so far this year then the collective 60 days between October 20th to roughly December 31st roughly they fired another 42,000 employees this thing's ramping up and it's ramping up very very quickly I believe this year we're going to see a wave of Bank consolidation and mergers to likes of which we've never seen before. I know some people might say not a big deal but if you don't realize just look at how America's funded small businesses. Real Estate Investors entrepreneurs everyday Americans don't get funding from JP Morgan Chase and Morgan Stanley they get from the Local Credit Union and the small regional banks. That's where they get their funding and as these small Banks start to dry up the big banks are going to call all the shots it's going to get a lot harder to get funding and financing in the years to come. They are not going to be lending as much money as they don't need as many employees they don't need all these bank branches they need to reduce their expenses dramatically because they are walking into a very very very difficult time in 2024 and 2025 and need to position their expenses accordingly that's what this means but when you look at all the headwinds coming for America it's so obvious what happened to more office properties. More Office buildings landlords are giving properties back to lenders due to poor performance and high refinancing costs for owners to walk away. Some of these office buildings were bought for 100 million but they are now selling for 50 million, 40 million, and 30 million due to what's happening now in the economy and what is going on with interest rates and borrowing costs, these office vacancies well to put it nicely it's a blood bath that's forming right now with over $2.7 trillion in debt which has to get refinanced on Commercial properties from now until 2027 but what's shocking is 70% of that debt is held by small local Regional Banks so what's going to happen a lot of these small local Regional Banks they going to be folding up left right and centre that's what's going to happen I mean look at what's going on with car repossessions on the rise auto delinquency rates at the highest level since 1994 as of October. Just look at where credit card debt is right now it's through the banks. You know they're not dumb they don't they know this bank deposits drop year-over-year for the first time ever this is dating all the way back to 1994 US banking industry total deposits declined year-over-year for the first time in data going back to 1994 following a tumultuous period for the banking sector so if you look at it it's a really really big trend happening right now like buy now pay later skyrocketing absolutely skyrocketing consumers don't have the credit that's a problem it's a very very very big problem banks making fewer business loans because of recession fears it sure it could be recession fears but it's also more of a fear on the you know the the client that's borrowing the money they don't know if that client's going to be able to pay and so a lot of these banks they're not issuing these business loans like they used to but unfortunately what's going to happen is as Banks start to pull back from Lending there's going to be a lot more predatory lenders coming out left right and centre looking to fill that gap payday loans installment loans all of this going to become much much bigger I mean if people are financing groceries what do you think is going to happen when banks stop lending right that's what's going to happen a lot more predatory lending is going to be coming out. JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs are getting ready to go out there and acquire tons and tons of Bank branches and they're going to start to fire tons of employees and they're going to be replacing these employees with AI generative AI technology they're going to be reducing expenses dramatically and reducing offices in Bank branch locations that's what they're going to be doing. JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs are already rolling out some AI-powered programs right came out on December 22nd and look at this they say between 14% And 27% of all bank jobs will be gone just like that that's a massive 27%. This is huge 27% of Bank headcount process-oriented roles are at risk which is a huge number of employees. This is also going on in the UK. In 2024 you're going to have commercial real estate hitting the fan you're going to start to have a lot of consumers unable to pay back their loans and bank deposits continuing to shrink. Americans borrowing money for their businesses and two trillion has to get refinanced this year this year going from a 2-3% interest rate to a 7% interest rate now that's a very big problem. There is something I noted in the US Commercial Real Estate sector where the commercial borrower can literally dump the asset on the lender who can either manage it(not likely) or dump it at a major loss(very likely) this hits the lenders bottom line of course! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staintunerider Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, staintunerider said: There is something I noted in the US Commercial Real Estate sector where the commercial borrower can literally dump the asset on the lender who can either manage it(not likely) or dump it at a major loss(very likely) this hits the lenders bottom line of course! And of course in the US in a residential bust...if the borrower is on the origination loan and in a non recourse state they too can dump it on the lender and walk away virtually unscathed....more hits on the lenders.... Residential is not a major problem at the moment especially with many having locked in sub 3% for 30 years but Commercial real estate is a disaster zone and has been for quite a while and shows no sign of abating... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nickb1 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 On 07/01/2024 at 10:41, staintunerider said: The UK doesn't have that reserve status hence we should always be higher than the US rates It (pound sterling) does have an international status that is not related to its current (abysmal) economic "fundamentals": it is one of a basket of currencies in terms of which IMF special drawing rights are denominated. Alongside the Dollar, Euro, Yen and Yuan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smuf-ww Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 6 minutes ago, nickb1 said: It (pound sterling) does have an international status that is not related to its current (abysmal) economic "fundamentals": it is one of a basket of currencies in terms of which IMF special drawing rights are denominated. Alongside the Dollar, Euro, Yen and Yuan. Spot on. I wish the UK government the best of luck in trying to inflate away any of it's debt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony_Teacake Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 11 hours ago, staintunerider said: There is something I noted in the US Commercial Real Estate sector where the commercial borrower can literally dump the asset on the lender who can either manage it(not likely) or dump it at a major loss(very likely) this hits the lenders bottom line of course! You are right this is a major loss for the lenders on commercial real estate. Another reason the lenders are in big trouble is all of these 30 year residential mortgages at 3%. Now interest rates are between 7-9% in America the banks are taking a huge hit on these mortgages and the market has become stale. You cant blame people who have a 3% mortgage for staying put. Also the banks who are invested heavily in treasuries are seeing huge losses now rates have shot up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brendan110_0 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 No, just a gradual 20 year decline until we crack nuclear fusion, AI may help. Fundamentals like food and shelter to be scarce. Could see some human right reversals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quid Game Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 14 hours ago, Tony_Teacake said: You see the problem is these things don't always playout overnight. That is why so many Bulls like you and others don't understand. You keep telling us Morrisons on Teeside Park is chocka so nobody is struggling. That is your idea of how good the economy is. Tell me what I was wrong on? Did I ever say this crash will playout overnight? Your posting history is like fishing with hand grenades. Back end of summer 22 you agreed a 20% drop in UK asking prices within 6 months was definitely on the cards, and that you thought that we will see a really 'fast decline'. Telling you what you got wrong would be a pretty arduous task... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
70PC Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 6 minutes ago, Quid Game said: Your posting history is like fishing with hand grenades. Back end of summer 22 you agreed a 20% drop in UK asking prices within 6 months was definitely on the cards, and that you thought that we will see a really 'fast decline'. Telling you what you got wrong would be a pretty arduous task... People save for a deposit and borrow to buy. When interest rates return to long term norms, borrowing capacity goes down and that means lower house prices. Various parties have taken every step possible to avert normal market forces. In 2008, lenders kept doubling down on debt risk and ended in trouble. They're doing it again but HMG's scope for bail outs and zero interest rates this time is weak. Hence the OP post on the prospect of this triggering a much bigger economic downturn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 06/01/2024 at 20:29, Tony_Teacake said: This is going to be a year to remember in the way that 2008 was. I will speak in plain terms in 2007 and 2008 they created a mortgage Finance bubble and in the last three or four years they created a corporate bond bubble, a Sovereign Bond bubble in particular a treasury bond bubble and they're all going to break in that we're going to have an event that could be something maybe five times more powerful than Layman and it has already begun. It's going to be so big an event that it's not going to take a couple of months it's going to take maybe the span of three years and we're already into it by one or two years, we are in the middle of a treasury bond default and a good indication was back in the end of 2019 when there was a blowup of the repo window and that was the treasury repurchase window what they did was they had $1.4 trillion in overnight funding and then the US had the covid stimulus of $9 trillion for the big Banks in 2020. We have had three years of treasury bond defaults and now we're entering the fourth year of a treasury bond default, this is going to be a very long process because the dollar is so widely used and it's so deeply ingrained and rooted in all kinds of different systems, treasuries are in Central Banks treasury bonds are the main item in structured finance. To give you an idea I read that Amundi which is a $3 trillion French private Equity Fund in France that is a bit like a French Black Rock announced back in June they were going to get rid of all their dollar stocks and all their dollar-based bonds. This is the sort of thing that has to happen when you have a treasury bond default. They didn't wake up one morning and say well for the next 48 hours we're going to be managing the default. This is just one example and this is already happening all over the world. I believe that by the end of this year but probably sooner we're going to have a massive credit crisis, bond crisis, and bank crisis all rolled into one along with a US Government debt crisis. The US is in a treasury bond default crisis and at their recent bond auctions there were hardly any buyers but who would blame them when interest rates are now higher and the thing is these bond holders who are massive corporations and banks have experienced losses on these of up to 40% over the last few years. America and UK have lapped up some treasuries recently and are going to see a decline in their treasury Holdings without the benefit of sale, trillions worth of bonds which are now garbage. 7 trillion in treasuries must roll over in the next 12 months and another trillion and a half added from the regular deficits. So they have got to finance eight and a half trillion dollars in the next 12 months so that's why I say they are not going to get out of this alive. If a foreign central bank sells treasury bonds and does not keep the proceeds in dollars then it will reduce its dollar reserves that manage its foreign currency and its currency will go down quickly if a foreign Central Bank sells treasuries and doesn't keep them in the dollar their currency will go down for reasons to do with their dollar Reserves. This is a going to be a global financial crisis as what is happening in America is going to send tidal waves all around the world. Let's make no mistake this is a Tsunami which is going to cause a global recession, this will not be a soft or hard landing this will be a crash landing. I am hoping some of the financial Gurus on here will throw some light on why a financial collapse is not imminent. I will welcome a debate from any bookkeeper, retired banker, or any from the Edinburgh area so come and throw your Quid in and let's giddy up. Just like to add one other thing if you disagree with what someone has posted refrain yourself from calling that person names as this is a clear sign you are losing the argument. Just try and keep it civil and let us be respectful towards each other. I kinda agree with you... but, in 2008 we completely underestimated their ability to keep the plates spinning. They will break all of the rules, so that what you describe above happens on a timescale that suits them. This is by design... we are transitioning to a new post-oil paradigm, where cars, holidays, general consumerism and debt are slowly outlawed. There will be a public debt jubilee across western nations... but the US will be the last domino to fall IMHO, because they host the reserve currency and export their inflation world wide, but it won't happen just yet. We are moving to MMT/Digital IDs/CBDCs/UBI/personal carbon footprints on the back of the 4th industrial revolution, considering most of us are considered useless eaters and the world is configured for a petrol-lifestyle which is now running out. I do believe everything we're seeing is ultimately a consequence of peak oil, the system just can't continue once you crest the bell-curve. They bought more time by lowering interest rates (tar sands/shale oil) and stomping around the middle east for 20 years, whilst delivering freedom and stealing crude. They're trying to do the same with Russia... Russia is the most resource rich country on the planet, 2nd place goes to the US, but it only has 60% of Russia's natural resources. Russia won't roll over... and full understands the game at hand. Poland is likely to head into Ukraine once the Ukrainian military fail... this will cause an escalation and make the world a far more dangerous place. The easiest way to usher in a new system, like a phoenix out of the ashes, is to create the environment that will destroy the old system under its own weight. Without exception, war always causes interest rates to rise... and rising rates is the most likely cause of a government bond market failure. It's coming... but bear in mind this is an election year for many countries and it's less likely to happen before 2025 IMHO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quid Game Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 9 hours ago, 70PC said: People save for a deposit and borrow to buy. When interest rates return to long term norms, borrowing capacity goes down and that means lower house prices. Various parties have taken every step possible to avert normal market forces. In 2008, lenders kept doubling down on debt risk and ended in trouble. They're doing it again but HMG's scope for bail outs and zero interest rates this time is weak. Hence the OP post on the prospect of this triggering a much bigger economic downturn. I can see that side of the argument sure. Wasn’t a comment on the OP’s original post however but a comment on his insistence that he has never said the crash will be rapid. He made a load of predictions two years back that within 24 months it’d be carnage and the crash to end all crashes, and now that that hasn’t happened it’s forget all that and onto the next prediction that 2024 will infact be the year of the crash. My prediction is that in a years time when that doesn’t play out it’ll be well just you wait until 2025, whilst of course saying that the bulls are all desperate and don’t get it. It’s quite a fascinating observation of someone so entrenched in a position that they seem unable to consider the other side to the point where they don’t acknowledge how wrong they’ve been to date. Learn and grow etc. For me, this year will be quite unremarkable I think. House prices as measured by whatever your index of preference is will be flat +\- 5%. Wages are catching up and inflation is falling. There is a truck load of wealth still held in property, and I just don’t see the Armageddon that is predicted by some. Could I be wrong? Sure, and if I am then I will change my position accordingly based upon what comes out the other side! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staintunerider Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 (edited) 8 hours ago, warpig said: I kinda agree with you... but, in 2008 we completely underestimated their ability to keep the plates spinning. They will break all of the rules, so that what you describe above happens on a timescale that suits them. This is by design... we are transitioning to a new post-oil paradigm, where cars, holidays, general consumerism and debt are slowly outlawed. There will be a public debt jubilee across western nations... but the US will be the last domino to fall IMHO, because they host the reserve currency and export their inflation world wide, but it won't happen just yet. We are moving to MMT/Digital IDs/CBDCs/UBI/personal carbon footprints on the back of the 4th industrial revolution, considering most of us are considered useless eaters and the world is configured for a petrol-lifestyle which is now running out. I do believe everything we're seeing is ultimately a consequence of peak oil, the system just can't continue once you crest the bell-curve. They bought more time by lowering interest rates (tar sands/shale oil) and stomping around the middle east for 20 years, whilst delivering freedom and stealing crude. They're trying to do the same with Russia... Russia is the most resource rich country on the planet, 2nd place goes to the US, but it only has 60% of Russia's natural resources. Russia won't roll over... and full understands the game at hand. Poland is likely to head into Ukraine once the Ukrainian military fail... this will cause an escalation and make the world a far more dangerous place. The easiest way to usher in a new system, like a phoenix out of the ashes, is to create the environment that will destroy the old system under its own weight. Without exception, war always causes interest rates to rise... and rising rates is the most likely cause of a government bond market failure. It's coming... but bear in mind this is an election year for many countries and it's less likely to happen before 2025 IMHO. I can never see a debt jubilee, someone's debt is someone else's asset and most assets are held by the rich and powerful... The reason debt jubilees worked in antiquity was because your people would **** off to a neighbouring kingdom or invite said neigbouring kingdom to come and do over your rulers and give you a better deal.... Your people were precious to your kingdom once you lost them you were done....your people wouldn't fight for you they'd switch sides..... A certain Austrian painter cancelled all Mortgages I believe in Germany.....someone else might be able to explain how that worked.... I was watching the german tv show Heimat some time back about a village from the 19th century into the 20th....there was a lady who borrowed bigly to build an enormous villa in the village.in the 1930's...talk about struck it lucky the mortgage got cancelled...she was sitting there talking to her husband saying i can;t beieve it we own it free and clear and basically got it for nothing... The Husband said well a certain Mr Whatever isn't so happy...i'm guessing he was the bank owner! Can't ever see a debt jubilee here....they talked about it a lot on the Keiser Report...Prof Michael Husband explained how it worked in ancient times.....it was a common practice when the system reached maturity.... Edited January 9 by staintunerider Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staintunerider Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 (edited) 14 hours ago, Tony_Teacake said: You are right this is a major loss for the lenders on commercial real estate. Another reason the lenders are in big trouble is all of these 30 year residential mortgages at 3%. Now interest rates are between 7-9% in America the banks are taking a huge hit on these mortgages and the market has become stale. You cant blame people who have a 3% mortgage for staying put. Also the banks who are invested heavily in treasuries are seeing huge losses now rates have shot up. Yes Wolf Street aka Wolf Richter did an article on exactly that around these 3% mortgages on 30 year terms He also made a very good point although these houses are off the market from the supply side of things so are the owners from the buy side of things...so reduced inventory cancelled out by equal cancelled demand.... .they're also stuck in terms of taking up offers of work in other regions/states unless they go the rental route....and i'm not sure how that works if they need the lender approval because the lender sure aint gonna want to help you out...if they don't have to...like here if you have a residential mortgage you need the lender agrrement to allow it to be rented out.... I know there is prob a lot of people ignoring this here....well if the lender found out they can claim immediate repayment of the mortgage as you have broken the terms of the contract.... I have also wondered about the insurance side if a claim is made ? It's very common (unlike here) for folk to move for jobs inside the US very very long distances...having a 3% mortgage kind of ties you down even if it is a great deal! Edited January 9 by staintunerider Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nero120 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, staintunerider said: I can never see a debt jubilee, someone's debt is someone else's asset and most assets are held by the rich and powerful... The reason debt jubilees worked in antiquity was because your people would **** off to a neighbouring kingdom or invite said neigbouring kingdom to come and do over your rulers and give you a better deal.... Your people were precious to your kingdom once you lost them you were done....your people wouldn't fight for you they'd switch sides..... A certain Austrian painter cancelled all Mortgages I believe in Germany.....someone else might be able to explain how that worked.... I was watching the german tv show Heimat some time back about a village from the 19th century into the 20th....there was a lady who borrowed bigly to build an enormous villa in the village.in the 1930's...talk about struck it lucky the mortgage got cancelled...she was sitting there talking to her husband saying i can;t beieve it we own it free and clear and basically got it for nothing... The Husband said well a certain Mr Whatever isn't so happy...i'm guessing he was the bank owner! Can't ever see a debt jubilee here....they talked about it a lot on the Keiser Report...Prof Michael Husband explained how it worked in ancient times.....it was a common practice when the system reached maturity.... Agreed, but it's instructive as it illustrates that a civilisation that is mired in debt becomes increasingly unstable. The jubilee was a pressure valve, but what is the modern day equivalent? Either currency debasement (hyperinflation) or very deep depression as everyone defaults on their obligations and counter-parties go under. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 (edited) 3 hours ago, staintunerider said: I can never see a debt jubilee, someone's debt is someone else's asset and most assets are held by the rich and powerful... The reason debt jubilees worked in antiquity was because your people would **** off to a neighbouring kingdom or invite said neigbouring kingdom to come and do over your rulers and give you a better deal.... Your people were precious to your kingdom once you lost them you were done....your people wouldn't fight for you they'd switch sides..... A certain Austrian painter cancelled all Mortgages I believe in Germany.....someone else might be able to explain how that worked.... I was watching the german tv show Heimat some time back about a village from the 19th century into the 20th....there was a lady who borrowed bigly to build an enormous villa in the village.in the 1930's...talk about struck it lucky the mortgage got cancelled...she was sitting there talking to her husband saying i can;t beieve it we own it free and clear and basically got it for nothing... The Husband said well a certain Mr Whatever isn't so happy...i'm guessing he was the bank owner! Can't ever see a debt jubilee here....they talked about it a lot on the Keiser Report...Prof Michael Husband explained how it worked in ancient times.....it was a common practice when the system reached maturity.... I mean a public not private debt jubilee, but your point remains nevertheless. I know it sounds insane, but TPTB have clearly given up on the existing Bretton Woods system and if a debt can't be paid - it won't be repaid. War is coming and with that interest rates will rise... They're going to bankrupt themselves and I think it's deliberate so they can abandon the old system and initiate a new Bretton Woods based based around CBDCs. War will be the excuse IMHO... Even left on the current trajectory, the US is expected to default on its debt by 2040 when projected at 250bp and imagine how much quicker that could happen at higher rates... It will happen within the next 10 years at the absolute latest IMO, but I think it will happen within the next 3. https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2023/10/6/when-does-federal-debt-reach-unsustainable-levels Edited January 9 by warpig Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staintunerider Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 7 minutes ago, warpig said: I mean a public not private debt jubilee, but your point remains nevertheless. I know it sounds insane, but TPTB have clearly given up on the existing Bretton Woods system and if a debt can't be paid - it won't be repaid. War is coming and with that interest rates will rise... They're going to bankrupt themselves and I think it's deliberate so they can abandon the old system and initiate a new Bretton Woods based based around CBDCs. War will be the excuse IMHO... Even left on the current trajectory, the US is expected to default on its debt by 2040 when projected at 250bp and imagine how much quicker that could happen at higher rates... It will happen within the next 10 years at the absolute latest IMO, but I think it will happen within the next 3. a new Bretton Woods is on the horizon. The trouble is with a New Bretton Woods the Yanks didn't honour their obligations on the last one....it's very difficult to disagree with a certain Russian that the US is completely agreement incapable something that actual native americans would concur whole heartedly.... So if I get your meaning on the debt jubilee is western govts basically default on their debt...but mortgage holders and Joe Publics credit cards and bank loans No ? Their debt gets rolled into whatever new scam..cough sorry system TPTB cook up ? Most of Joe Public have no idea the danger and totalitarian control CBDC's would bring....govt can't help itself...it will always overreach....nah doctor says no booze for you...or ciggies......haven't paid. ore than the min on your cards this momth...no...no luxuries for you.... Terrifying.....somehow the super rich and connected will be using other means like corporate business cards or what have you....whole new can of worms CBDC's would be.... Not sure they have got their ducks in a row on CBDC anyway...it's basicall govt fiat crypto isn't it ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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