Break up of the UK inevitable?

[gp_]

3 hours ago, zugzwang said:

No, they won't. Businesses will be looking for opportunities in the EU.

If they are, why are they not already doing that in the EU?

[14stFlyer]

3 hours ago, kzb said:

You'll have to take that up with the Climate Change thread regulars.  Plus The Guardian and every single climate change campaigner.  What you are saying is WrongThink and I must report you.

Utter rubbish kzb.  Of course the oil and gas industry is a net benefit financially to the Scottish economy, especially with oil prices in the region of $100/bbl.  The whole point of Just Stop Oil, the Guardian leave it in the ground and other climate-related campaigns is that there is a financial incentive to produce oil and gas that we should be leaving in the ground if we are to honour our climate commitments. 

Yes, there are perverse subsidies, and tax breaks for further exploration and other activities that mean the U.K. govt is not getting the revenues it should be, but that does not in any way imply that the industry as a whole is not making money. 

[gp_]

1 hour ago, Habeas Domus said:

A hard border with England until they rejoin the EU.

Surely you mean, once they rejoin the EU? There would be no problem having a customs union with the Britain until then.

[gp_]

1 hour ago, Lucky Larry said:

They aren't been given away ,they lie in Scottish territorial waters and when Scotland rejoins the EU they will have the full support of the EU just as Ireland does

Where territorial boundaries will lie is a matter for negotiation.

16 minutes ago, kzb said:

Maybe he is justifiably angry that the ugly sentiment of the nationalists goes without effective challenge.

And it is pretty ugly. 

You are gloating because you think you will walk away debt free and take the oil with you.  Sticking two fingers up to the English as you go, who have supported you all these years.

I think that is very ugly to be honest.

Scottish Nationalists are like all other nationalists. Not a surprise.
 

1 hour ago, kzb said:

I repeat, the oil has to stay in the ground.  It's wortless.

Oil is worthless? Tell that to the Saudis or the Russians! It was because western Europe reduced oil and gas production that Russia is in such a good position.

[zugzwang]

19 minutes ago, gp_ said:

If they are, why are they not already doing that in the EU?

 

Global Britain spreads its Brexit wings as UK retailers plan to expand overseas with EU and Australia favourites

https://www.cityam.com/global-britain-spreads-its-brexit-wings-as-uk-retailers-plan-to-expand-overseas-with-eu-and-australia-favourites/

A range of British retail giants is eyeing to expand internationally as they are seeking to spread their wings amid a bounce-back in activity following the pandemic.

Experts at real estate advisory firm Colliers said demand for UK locations from international firms has also lifted higher as shopper demand remains resilient despite fears over cost-of-living pressures.

New data from Colliers revealed that 48% of its UK client businesses – which between them operate 7,255 UK stores – expect to open more international outlets.

UK retailers are particularly targeting the Australian market as the country’s economy continues to open up following the pandemic.

A number of retailers are targeting European nations such as Italy despite Brexit regulations.

 

[kzb]

1 hour ago, 14stFlyer said:

Utter rubbish kzb.  Of course the oil and gas industry is a net benefit financially to the Scottish economy, especially with oil prices in the region of $100/bbl.  The whole point of Just Stop Oil, the Guardian leave it in the ground and other climate-related campaigns is that there is a financial incentive to produce oil and gas that we should be leaving in the ground if we are to honour our climate commitments. 

Yes, there are perverse subsidies, and tax breaks for further exploration and other activities that mean the U.K. govt is not getting the revenues it should be, but that does not in any way imply that the industry as a whole is not making money. 

So why do they keep insisting it is being subsidised?

[kzb]

1 hour ago, gp_ said:

Oil is worthless? Tell that to the Saudis or the Russians! It was because western Europe reduced oil and gas production that Russia is in such a good position.

@14stFlyer

On the Climate Change thread I argue on my own against large numbers of forum members who insist oil and gas are being subsidised.  Where are you then?

[Lucky Larry]

7 hours ago, kzb said:

Maybe he is justifiably angry that the ugly sentiment of the nationalists goes without effective challenge.

And it is pretty ugly. 

You are gloating because you think you will walk away debt free and take the oil with you.  Sticking two fingers up to the English as you go, who have supported you all these years.

I think that is very ugly to be honest.

gloating? I'm laughing at how desperate both of you are behaving, one is claiming the oil is of no value but is angry that Scotland will take it and the other is threatening military action to seize something that doesn't belong to them . This is exactly the attitude that is driving Independence , Imperialist thuggery .

[14stFlyer]

6 hours ago, kzb said:

So why do they keep insisting it is being subsidised?

The search for new oil and gas, and various other expenditures not related to current production, is subsidised through tax relief on profits from produced oil and gas. That is madness (in my view) as we should not be looking for more oil. We should stop subsidising new projects and encourage U.K. producers to make significant profits from existing oil fields and so tax revenue for U.K. plc (or of course Scottish govt if independent).  

[dugsbody]

11 hours ago, gp_ said:

Scottish Nationalists are like all other nationalists. Not a surprise.

I find it funny watching brexiters call out nationalism in others.

 

[kzb]

4 hours ago, 14stFlyer said:

The search for new oil and gas, and various other expenditures not related to current production, is subsidised through tax relief on profits from produced oil and gas. That is madness (in my view) as we should not be looking for more oil. We should stop subsidising new projects and encourage U.K. producers to make significant profits from existing oil fields and so tax revenue for U.K. plc (or of course Scottish govt if independent).  

If we don't develop new fields production will fall away and stop in x short years.

Also the subsidy is said to relate to decommissioning, presumably the infrastructure at used-up sites.  The state is actually giving money back to companies for this.  It was however part of the original tax deal so it is contractual.

If new sites are not developed the production will fall away and eventually stop.  Now what timescales are we talking about for Scexit?  Going by Brexit it took 5.5 years.  So 5.5 years on from 2024 you are looking at 2030-ish.

So without new fields, what will production look like by 2030?  All the depleted sites will need decommissioning for which the oil companies will want their contractual tax rebate.   So at some stage the whole thing will turn into a net liability, and that stage will come a lot sooner the sooner oil production stops.

 

[kzb]

2 hours ago, dugsbody said:

I find it funny watching brexiters call out nationalism in others.

 

I can see what you mean, but I honestly think the scots nationalists are believing fantasies, driven primarily by thinking they will be able to stick two fingers up at the English whilst being a lot richer.  That economic case does not stack up at all.

Brexit in contrast has economic upsides, which in the mid to long term will benefit us economically.

The Scots will have to pay about £1.5bn p.a. into the EU (assuming no significant change in their financial position), a big change from receiving £38bn p.a. from RUK.   They will have to meet the Maastricht requirements on spending relative to tax take.  Scots workers will have to compete for jobs with Ukrainians, Serbians and Moldovians in their own country.

Bearing in mind about 1 in 3 SNP voters also voted for Brexit, when the rest of them hear about all this in the run-up to joining the EU, I think you could see the public support for it waning.

[Riedquat]

5 minutes ago, kzb said:

I can see what you mean, but I honestly think the scots nationalists are believing fantasies, driven primarily by thinking they will be able to stick two fingers up at the English whilst being a lot richer.  That economic case does not stack up at all.

I've got no problem with pro-Scottish Scottish nationalist sentiment. What I do have a problem with is anti-English sentiment and the sort of spitting on democracy that "keep having votes until we get the result we want" scum loves.

[Lucky Larry]

16 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

What I do have a problem with is anti-English sentiment and the sort of spitting on democracy that "keep having votes until we get the result we want" scum loves

The SNP, Alba and the Green Party said a vote for them was a vote for another referendum at the last election , the people voted for them on that basis . They have a mandate to deliver the wish of the people , it's called democracy. Your problem is you won with lies and false promises the last time and now that has been exposed you don't want to play again because the odds are against you , it's called cowardice.

[Riedquat]

1 minute ago, Lucky Larry said:

The SNP, Alba and the Green Party said a vote for them was a vote for another referendum at the last election , the people voted for them on that basis . They have a mandate to deliver the wish of the people , it's called democracy. Your problem is you won with lies and false promises the last time and now that has been exposed you don't want to play again because the odds are against you , it's called cowardice.

Drivel, pathetic drivel. But it very much sounds like you're one of the "keep voting until I get the result I want" types, where it's only democracy if it gives the "right" result. Far too many people are stuck with "whatever I want and whatever is done to get it is right and justified." Which includes saying fvck that to democratic results if they don't like the answer. Trump, various Remainers, the SNP, Putin, all cut from the same cloth with their contempt for democracy.

[Lucky Larry]

1 minute ago, Riedquat said:

Drivel, pathetic drivel. But it very much sounds like you're one of the "keep voting until I get the result I want" types, where it's only democracy if it gives the "right" result. Far too many people are stuck with "whatever I want and whatever is done to get it is right and justified." Which includes saying fvck that to democratic results if they don't like the answer. Trump, various Remainers, the SNP, Putin, all cut from the same cloth with their contempt for democracy.

Contempt for democracy hahahaha , you are the one denying people the right to vote , the fear is real 

[dugsbody]

1 hour ago, kzb said:

I can see what you mean, but I honestly think the scots nationalists are believing fantasies, driven primarily by thinking they will be able to stick two fingers up at the English whilst being a lot richer.  That economic case does not stack up at all.

Brexit in contrast has economic upsides, which in the mid to long term will benefit us economically.

You're too funny

🤣

[gp_]

11 minutes ago, Lucky Larry said:

the fear is real 

The fear of what, exactly? My main fear is that when independence proves to be an economic disaster the Scottish nationalists will scapegoat Britain causing a hostility and division.

 

3 hours ago, dugsbody said:

I find it funny watching brexiters call out nationalism in others.

Brexit did not require the delusion, myth making or blaming that Scottish nationalism seems to require. There was real discussion about the economic consequences and how they could be dealt with. Whereas when presented with questions about how to deal with the difficult issues the Scottish Nationalist response is to ignore them (this thread is a good example).

[dugsbody]

13 minutes ago, gp_ said:

Brexit did not require the delusion, myth making or blaming that Scottish nationalism seems to require. There was real discussion about the economic consequences and how they could be dealt with.

Oh my sides

🤣🤣🤣

This is one for the ages.

You cannot be for real, I reckon you're a remain voter posing as a brexit voter to look as idiotic as possible. Still, masterfully done.

 

[Pmax2020]

3 hours ago, kzb said:

I can see what you mean, but I honestly think the scots nationalists are believing fantasies, driven primarily by thinking they will be able to stick two fingers up at the English whilst being a lot richer.  That economic case does not stack up at all.

 

With respect it’s only you that’s focusing exclusively on the economics. The YES movement is about social equality, fairer and more progressive politics, the ability to be wholly responsible for our own affairs, and to be able to trade more freely in Europe. 

You’re following the lead of the Express and making this all about oil money and anti-English sentiment. I literally don’t know anybody that’s pro-Indy that talks about oil or hating the English. Quite the opposite - the majority of us voted for parties in favour of decommissioning the oil industry - so please - quit the dishonest Daily Mail narratives!

Edited July 5, 2022 by Pmax2020

[Riedquat]

14 minutes ago, Pmax2020 said:

With respect it’s only you that’s focusing exclusively on the economics. The YES movement is about social equality, fairer and more progressive politics, the ability to be wholly responsible for our own affairs, and to be able to trade more freely in Europe.

No reason to believe you'll get any more of the first two with an independent Scotland, the second's a desire I can sympathise with but Scotland voted against wanting it not very long ago at all, and no reason to believe you'll get the final one either.

You forgot to mention a short-termist dislike of the current Westminster government (something shared by most of the rest of the UK), which is a lousy reason to leave because you're just as likely to wind up subject to a lousy government in the future that being in the UK would prevent. Scottish politicians aren't fundamentally any less crap than English, Welsh, or Northern Irish ones, we're just stuck with a crap English one right now (just as the UK has also been hammered by a crap Scottish one in charge not all that long ago, as well as some of the SNP's own internal characters being "interesting.") None of which will prevent the rabid anti-English nationalists (you're burying your head in the sand if you believe that's not a large element of it) using bad reasons to try to force their way through, something very dishonest but that's about what I expect.

[Pmax2020]

15 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

No reason to believe you'll get any more of the first two with an independent Scotland, the second's a desire I can sympathise with but Scotland voted against wanting it not very long ago at all, and no reason to believe you'll get the final one either.

You forgot to mention a short-termist dislike of the current Westminster government (something shared by most of the rest of the UK), which is a lousy reason to leave because you're just as likely to wind up subject to a lousy government in the future that being in the UK would prevent. Scottish politicians aren't fundamentally any less crap than English, Welsh, or Northern Irish ones, we're just stuck with a crap English one right now (just as the UK has also been hammered by a crap Scottish one in charge not all that long ago, as well as some of the SNP's own internal characters being "interesting.") None of which will prevent the rabid anti-English nationalists (you're burying your head in the sand if you believe that's not a large element of it) using bad reasons to try to force their way through, something very dishonest but that's about what I expect.

I’m tired of being told by people who don’t live here that a notable proportion of Scots are anti-English. At worst, it’s a few percent of our ageing population but it’s comparable to the number of English that equally hate the Scots.

The independence movement, parties and marches/gatherings have nothing to do with anti-English sentiment. 
 

“Short-termist” you say? Tell me the Tories have no chance of re-election in a couple of years? Oh yes - you can’t!!!! The English electorate love the Tories!

[kzb]

1 hour ago, Pmax2020 said:

With respect it’s only you that’s focusing exclusively on the economics. The YES movement is about social equality, fairer and more progressive politics, the ability to be wholly responsible for our own affairs, and to be able to trade more freely in Europe. 

You’re following the lead of the Express and making this all about oil money and anti-English sentiment. I literally don’t know anybody that’s pro-Indy that talks about oil or hating the English. Quite the opposite - the majority of us voted for parties in favour of decommissioning the oil industry - so please - quit the dishonest Daily Mail narratives!

I've not read the Express in years. 

have seen quite a bit of Scots Nationalist online material and forums.  All I can say is your set seems to be a rather quiet minority.

 

[gp_]

1 hour ago, Pmax2020 said:

“Short-termist” you say? Tell me the Tories have no chance of re-election in a couple of years?

You are rather proving yourself short termist. Are you saying no other party can win elections for the next 30 years? Or that the conservative party's policies will not change in that time (they have changed at least 3 times in the last 50 years) in that time to something you like better?

 

 

1 hour ago, Pmax2020 said:

I’m tired of being told by people who don’t live here that a notable proportion of Scots are anti-English.

There is evidence of anti-English sentiment in this thread!

[kzb]

21 minutes ago, gp_ said:

There is evidence of anti-English sentiment in this thread!

50% of them !