Break up of the UK inevitable?

[micawber]

7 hours ago, Pmax2020 said:

I don’t know which way the vote will go in 2023/2024, or if indeed there will even be a vote. I’d just like it to be democratic and fought in good spirit among Scot’s as was the case in 2014.

What I do know is if Brexit and Boris hasn’t swayed people then it’s now or never - because there won’t be another referendum for probably the remainder of my working life. The SNP were given one last chance to deliver indyref2 at the last election. And boy have they dragged their feet on it.

Everyone's experiences will have been different but I heard terrible reports of bullying and general nastiness during the last referendum. 

Wouldn't you like an unquestionable result (e.g. the 60%) as a way of removing all doubt and most division? Or is the important thing to win at any cost?

If the SNP offered that, then I'd offer an additional separate question on independence (or reunion) at every general election. The negotiated terms then being subject to a confirmatory referendum.

 

[14stFlyer]

Stuck in the middle here.  

Scottish background but live in centre of England.  No vote (presumably). Not sure what I would do in the event of a positive Independence vote. Give up job?  Sell house and move family up to Scotland? Does not sound easy, or even particularly realistic given our life situation.

Despite quite liking the idea of an independent Scotland within Europe, I can only see it as disruptive and bad news from a personal perspective, and I cannot be the only one.  Indeed, I just see it as being disruptive and bad news for everyone on both sides of the border.

Perhaps the Brexit vote experience should be telling us to leave well alone?

[Lucky Larry]

19 minutes ago, 14stFlyer said:

Perhaps the Brexit vote experience should be telling us to leave well alone?

The Brexit vote experience should be telling us to leave the UK

[Lucky Larry]

6 hours ago, kzb said:

It's the reality you would be faced with the day after.

Never being ruled by a Conservative Govt ever again , that is a major factor in the push for Independence . There are for more positives to leaving than there are for staying. I don't believe we would be worse financially off but even if that were the case it is a price worth paying to ensure freedom. If they were smarter they would be trying to make a positive case for staying instead of using fear cards and contemptuous belittling . Who in Gods name would want to be ruled by Johnson (or any of his backers in cabinet) he's so bad even 40% of his own party want him gone. Can you imagine anyone voting to be ruled by Patel or Truss because they might get an extra 5% in their wages but lose so so much more. The real fear here is what England would face the day after because when there is no Scotland to plunder they will turn the North into a wasteland .

England doesn't want a partnership it wants to control and dominate , they can't change .

[Pmax2020]

55 minutes ago, micawber said:

Everyone's experiences will have been different but I heard terrible reports of bullying and general nastiness during the last referendum. 

Wouldn't you like an unquestionable result (e.g. the 60%) as a way of removing all doubt and most division? Or is the important thing to win at any cost?

If the SNP offered that, then I'd offer an additional separate question on independence (or reunion) at every general election. The negotiated terms then being subject to a confirmatory referendum.

 

The unionists use the ‘divisive’ line a lot and speak of families that split up over the question of independence. I call BS on that and would suggest politics itself is more polarising than the matter of the constitution.

The NO vote is skewed heavily towards the older generation and Scotlands very few Tory voters. It’s irrefutable that the YES vote will continue to grow here. So I’m not concerned about when we become independent because I know it’ll happen eventually.  
 

Westminster isn’t going to change, hence a lot of Scots want away. Just remember - every time you hear the Tories say ‘not now’ or the media focus independence as being all about Sturgeon - remember that over 2 million Scot’s want independence. Probably more. I think at this point in time the YES vote is sitting low 50s and a positive campaign could get it to about 57/58%. 

[kzb]

3 hours ago, Lucky Larry said:

Never being ruled by a Conservative Govt ever again , that is a major factor in the push for Independence . There are for more positives to leaving than there are for staying. I don't believe we would be worse financially off but even if that were the case it is a price worth paying to ensure freedom. If they were smarter they would be trying to make a positive case for staying instead of using fear cards and contemptuous belittling . Who in Gods name would want to be ruled by Johnson (or any of his backers in cabinet) he's so bad even 40% of his own party want him gone. Can you imagine anyone voting to be ruled by Patel or Truss because they might get an extra 5% in their wages but lose so so much more. The real fear here is what England would face the day after because when there is no Scotland to plunder they will turn the North into a wasteland .

England doesn't want a partnership it wants to control and dominate , they can't change .

That is exactly the kind of short-termism that I am saying is unwise.

The treaty is written with an eye to preventing one country "dumping" the other in such an easy manner just because they've had a bit of a tiff.

It's highly likely, for example, the Tories would want to dump Scotland, because it costs us money, and worse than that, they don't vote Tory.  The treaty tries to prevent that kind of thing happening.

This Tory government is but an eye-blink in the history of the union.  Also, like I said above, if you all voted Labour instead of SNP there would be much less chance of the Tories getting in again.

[kzb]

3 hours ago, Pmax2020 said:

The NO vote is skewed heavily towards the older generation and Scotlands very few Tory voters. It’s irrefutable that the YES vote will continue to grow here.

When the SNP is actually the government and the buck stops there, their sins in the eyes of the electorate will only grow.

Who was that health minister who knew she had Covid but travelled all the way from London to Scotland on a train?

Right now we have an ex-SNP MP charged with embezzlement in the news.

Come to that are there not some very dodgy dealings within the SNP about how donors' money has been used?

In other words politicians are dodgy.  All of them.  Don't imagine you can get rid of the hypocrisy and sleaze simply by replacing the Tories.

[Pmax2020]

2 minutes ago, kzb said:

That is exactly the kind of short-termism that I am saying is unwise.

The treaty is written with an eye to preventing one country "dumping" the other in such an easy manner just because they've had a bit of a tiff.

It's highly likely, for example, the Tories would want to dump Scotland, because it costs us money, and worse than that, they don't vote Tory.  The treaty tries to prevent that kind of thing happening.

This Tory government is but an eye-blink in the history of the union.  Also, like I said above, if you all voted Labour instead of SNP there would be much less chance of the Tories getting in again.

This Tory government is 12 years and counting. A corrupt, deceitful, disingenuous bunch that could easily be re-elected in a couple of years time. The Scot’s haven’t voted for a Tory government in 70 years. 

Labour are the only realistic hope of unseating the Tories, were only briefly in power in Scotland when Holyrood was formed at the turn of the century.

The SNP have won the last 4 elections up here - increasing their vote share with each result!!

You say short-termist but there is nothing to suggest over the last 20 years that there will be a seismic shift up here that’ll see either the Tories elected, or Scotland and Englands support for labour aligned.

[Pmax2020]

10 minutes ago, kzb said:

When the SNP is actually the government and the buck stops there, their sins in the eyes of the electorate will only grow.

Who was that health minister who knew she had Covid but travelled all the way from London to Scotland on a train?

Right now we have an ex-SNP MP charged with embezzlement in the news.

Come to that are there not some very dodgy dealings within the SNP about how donors' money has been used?

In other words politicians are dodgy.  All of them.  Don't imagine you can get rid of the hypocrisy and sleaze simply by replacing the Tories.

Tory sleaze is incomparable to that of labour or indeed SNP. The examples you give are very weak and go back many, many years!!!

Edited July 1, 2022 by Pmax2020

[kzb]

6 minutes ago, Pmax2020 said:

This Tory government is 12 years and counting. A corrupt, deceitful, disingenuous bunch that could easily be re-elected in a couple of years time. The Scot’s haven’t voted for a Tory government in 70 years. 

Labour are the only realistic hope of unseating the Tories, were only briefly in power in Scotland when Holyrood was formed at the turn of the century.

The SNP have won the last 4 elections up here - increasing their vote share with each result!!

You say short-termist but there is nothing to suggest over the last 20 years that there will be a seismic shift up here that’ll see either the Tories elected, or Scotland and Englands support for labour aligned.

Scotland used to vote in over 90% Labour MPs ?  I recall them saying the Scots Tories could all fit in one taxi.

If you went back to those days, the Tories would almost certainly lose the next UK GE to Labour.  As it is, voting SNP risks letting them in as a minority government.

Yes it is short-termist.  The union is older than most EU nations and older than the USA.  Twenty years is nothing.

 

[kzb]

10 minutes ago, Pmax2020 said:

Tory sleaze is incomparable to that of labour or indeed SNP. The examples you give are very weak and go back many, many years!!!

Just wait till they are in power with 100% of the budget to play with.

[Pmax2020]

34 minutes ago, kzb said:

Scotland used to vote in over 90% Labour MPs ?  I recall them saying the Scots Tories could all fit in one taxi.

If you went back to those days, the Tories would almost certainly lose the next UK GE to Labour.  As it is, voting SNP risks letting them in as a minority government.

Yes it is short-termist.  The union is older than most EU nations and older than the USA.  Twenty years is nothing.

 

You can’t be seriously suggesting Scots ditch the SNP in the UK GE because you acknowledge our votes are worthless?! You’re asking us to completely give up on having any sort of voice in Westminster?!

Look at the last 4 Holyrood elections and answer my question…

With pro-independence support essentially at 50% across the country - and with the SNP being the only big party supporting that objective - how on earth do you argue that status quo with change in the next 20-30 years?!

You’re obtusely ignoring the clear evidence that politically Scotland and England are on different pages. It’s not going to change for many decades and regardless of that - millions of people in Scotland want independence…

[micawber]

35 minutes ago, Pmax2020 said:

You can’t be seriously suggesting Scots ditch the SNP in the UK GE because you acknowledge our votes are worthless?! You’re asking us to completely give up on having any sort of voice in Westminster?!

You changed the outcome of the 2010 election so I don't buy the BS about your votes being worthless.

I voted for LD last time out. Should I just give up and have a temper tantrum because they won't form the government?

But please answer the question that I asked you. Is the win more important than reduced division? We have all seen the result of close votes and the cancer they cause. 

 

[IMHAL]

40 minutes ago, micawber said:

You changed the outcome of the 2010 election so I don't buy the BS about your votes being worthless.

I voted for LD last time out. Should I just give up and have a temper tantrum because they won't form the government?

But please answer the question that I asked you. Is the win more important than reduced division? We have all seen the result of close votes and the cancer they cause. 

 

The Scots voted to remain in the EU by 62% to 38%. If the aim of an independant Scotland is to join the EU then the division you suggest will not be as great as is being made out.

I know it's a secondary issue, but a very significant one.

[micawber]

13 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

The Scots voted to remain in the EU by 62% to 38%. If the aim of an independant Scotland is to join the EU then the division you suggest will not be as great as is being made out.

I know it's a secondary issue, but a very significant one.

It's a good point. I'm pretty sick of the continual picking of the open sore caused by the Brexit vote. I wish that there was a mechanism by which the losers of such votes had some realistic hope of a reversal.

Perhaps it's completely impractical but why not have 4 or 5 core questions appended to each GE vote to allow the public to express an opinion on core issues of substance such as independence, EU membership, PR, nuclear disarmament, etc, and then when any triggered a "no doubt" threshold of, say, 60% that the government would be required to act.

[Pmax2020]

54 minutes ago, micawber said:

You changed the outcome of the 2010 election so I don't buy the BS about your votes being worthless.

I voted for LD last time out. Should I just give up and have a temper tantrum because they won't form the government?

But please answer the question that I asked you. Is the win more important than reduced division? We have all seen the result of close votes and the cancer they cause. 

 

I genuinely believe Scotland would be a fairer and more prosperous country were it to break free from the UK. Our dominant political party stand for these ideals, and even prior to formally working in partnership with the Greens, they’ve already delivered progressive policies on energy and climate that prove that commitment. With the limited powers we have - we do our best to mitigate the likes of the Tory’s cuts to the child payment .

As it stands though, we simply don’t have the fiscal levers to tackle the widespread poverty and social inequality in this country - that is one of the fundamental reasons for wanting independence. It’s not about oil and being wealthy, it’s about creating a fairer society. 

You ask is the win more important than reduced division? Well, that’s a rather paradoxical question if you ask me. 

If the majority of Scots vote for independence (because they obviously believe in it), then it’s only fit and proper that we collectively as a nation become independent. If the answer is No in 2023/2024, then I can’t see another vote happening in my lifetime because a No in the face of what we’ve recently endured suggests the electorate will never change their minds. 

 

[micawber]

3 minutes ago, Pmax2020 said:

You ask is the win more important than reduced division? Well, that’s a rather paradoxical question if you ask me. 

It requires losers to accept the result but we've all seen how that works both here and in Trump land. We all know that when a vote is won by a few percent that there will be those who want to run it again because the result may be different tomorrow or next week. Let's find a way to stop that.

[gp_]

7 hours ago, 14stFlyer said:

Scottish background but live in centre of England.  No vote (presumably). Not sure what I would do in the event of a positive Independence vote. Give up job?  Sell house and move family up to Scotland? Does not sound easy, or even particularly realistic given our life situation.

You could take/retain British citizenship and stay here. In fact, depending on the criteria decided on and your exact Scottish background you may not even qualify for Scottish citizenship (you probably will at least have a choice of which to choose, but nothing is guaranteed).

[Lucky Larry]

3 hours ago, kzb said:

if you all voted Labour instead of SNP there would be much less chance of the Tories getting in again.

If we all vote for Independence then the Etonian Mafia will be gone forever , why take chances. Labour should have been smarter and supported the will of the people instead they took the side of the Union as they more than anyone know that to gain power in Westminster it's essential to have the Scottish vote , they took it for granted and now it's gone . They could have had half a cake but they wanted the lot and they most likely will end up with nothing . I don't think you realise just how reviled the Tories are in Scotland especially after Thatcher and Johnson's fascists are reviving memories of just how bad they were , Corbyn may have been able to repair the damage but Starmer has no chance

[gp_]

3 hours ago, kzb said:

This Tory government is but an eye-blink in the history of the union.  Also, like I said above, if you all voted Labour instead of SNP there would be much less chance of the Tories getting in again.

Yes, but a lot of Scots Nats seem to be "never kissed a Tory" types.

 

7 hours ago, Pmax2020 said:

The NO vote is skewed heavily towards the older generation and Scotlands very few Tory voters. It’s irrefutable that the YES vote will continue to grow here.

The same was true with regard to Brexit, but it still shifted from 75% remain in 1975 to 52% leave in 2016.

 

7 hours ago, 14stFlyer said:

Despite quite liking the idea of an independent Scotland within Europe

So "independent" means leaving one union to join another?

 

3 hours ago, kzb said:

That is exactly the kind of short-termism that I am saying is unwise.

The treaty is written with an eye to preventing one country "dumping" the other in such an easy manner just because they've had a bit of a tiff.

Scottish Nationalism is very short termist and ridiculously optimistic. I have never heard a reasonable explanation of how they would deal any of the big issues in a way that would actually be of benefit.

[kzb]

1 hour ago, IMHAL said:

The Scots voted to remain in the EU by 62% to 38%. If the aim of an independant Scotland is to join the EU then the division you suggest will not be as great as is being made out.

I know it's a secondary issue, but a very significant one.

@Lucky Larry @Pmax2020

The 1975 Referendum

Results by United Kingdom constituent countries

Country		Electorate	Voter turnout, of eligible	Votes		Proportion of votes		Invalid votes
				Yes	No	Yes	No
	England	33,356,208	64.6%	14,918,009	6,182,052	68.65%	31.35%	42,161
	Northern Ireland	1,030,534	47.4%	259,251	237,911	52.19%	47.81%	1,589
	Scotland	3,688,799	61.7%	1,332,186	948,039	58.42%	41.58%	6,481
	Wales	2,011,136	66.7%	869,135	472,071	64.80%	35.20%	4,339

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_United_Kingdom_European_Communities_membership_referendum

As we can see, Scotland was much less keen than England on joining the EEC back in 1975.  Only 36% of the Scottish turned out to vote YES to EEC membership.  In England it was 44.3%.

They were taken into the EEC by a Tory government, after a last minute dirty-deal on Fisheries, which sold the Scottish fishing industry down the river.  That industry then became greatly reduced in the years that followed, as a result of competing with EU trawlers.

Given the widespread support for Labour in Scotland back then, it seems likely to me that the working class would've been against the EEC membership.  See this for example:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/april/26/newsid_2503000/2503155.stm

1975: Labour votes to leave the EEC

A one-day conference held by the Labour Party to debate Britain's membership of Europe has voted by almost 2-1 to leave the European Economic Community.

 

 

 

[Pmax2020]

47 minutes ago, gp_ said:

Yes, but a lot of Scots Nats seem to be "never kissed a Tory" types.

 

The same was true with regard to Brexit, but it still shifted from 75% remain in 1975 to 52% leave in 2016.

 

 

Scottish Nationalism is very short termist and ridiculously optimistic. I have never heard a reasonable explanation of how they would deal any of the big issues in a way that would actually be of benefit.

Open up two Wikipedia pages and place them neatly side by side - one  showing the Scottish Elections and the other the UK.

Scroll back through each result, noting the winning party and their vote share. Now try to spin us the ‘never kissed a Tory’ or ‘Short-termist’ BS.

It won’t change up here because there are 2 or 3 million people that either want independence and/or will never vote Tory. 

Labour may change their tune on independence if they think it’ll help them into power. 

Edited July 1, 2022 by Pmax2020

[kzb]

3 hours ago, Pmax2020 said:

You can’t be seriously suggesting Scots ditch the SNP in the UK GE because you acknowledge our votes are worthless?! You’re asking us to completely give up on having any sort of voice in Westminster?!

I'm saying that your only reason for independence is hating the Tories and never wanting another Tory government.

Well vote Labour like you used to, and there is no need for you to break this treaty.  It's unlikely the Tories would gain an overall majority for the foreseeable.  Your votes would then not be worthless.

 

[kzb]

56 minutes ago, gp_ said:

Scottish Nationalism is very short termist and ridiculously optimistic. I have never heard a reasonable explanation of how they would deal any of the big issues in a way that would actually be of benefit.

Same here.  There was furious criticism of Brexit from those who said there was no plan.

Well this is Brexit x 10.  You are splitting one nation into two.  The problems are huge but they are just handwaved away.

Who is paying for all the resultant disruption and admin also ?  Is it me?

[Lucky Larry]

4 minutes ago, kzb said:

As we can see, Scotland was much less keen than England on joining the EEC back in 1975

And somehow this is relevant or more important than the most recent vote , anyone who voted then is now a pensioner at least and most likely no longer with us. If a week is a long time in politics then 47 years is an ice age . You're beginning to look desperate to make a case for the Union