15 Disappearing Jobs that Won’t Exist in 2030

[Confusion of VIs]

 

No, but they probably can make up 30% and that will make a big difference

They are at 30% already, right now 50% of power (Gridwatch) is being provided by renewables. In the future renewables will be scaled to well over 100% of the need with the excess being used for industries that can soak up the excess by turning cheap electricity into a product - such as aluminium. 

Lots of new storage technologies are coming to the market, this is going to be a huge business in the coming years.     

[Confusion of VIs]

 

Yes. 70% shortfall. 

Bit of a grim alternative: either use nukes to make up the 70% shortfall. Or run out of oil (and quickly  lose most of the 30% from renewables).

Oil is not going to run out. Falling energy prices mean that much of even the current reserves will be left in the ground as they become economically unviable.  

Over the next few years you will start to hear more about these stranded assets and the resulting write offs will push oil companies that have been slow to offload them into bankruptcy.   

[Megadebt]

 

 

I can't see solar panels supplying our ever expanding electricity needs. 

Especially given cars trying to run on it as well. 

The cheap electricity slogan really comes from the nuclear industry....

 

 Solar has acheived grid cost patiry in already in some sunny places like Californa or Dubia, also good for hot countries with high aircon load. Uk latitude isn't ideal fpr PV, even Germany gets sigificantly more sun. As installed costs reduced and conventional energy increases, with subsidies it became economic. 

 Obvious problems in that power generation drops down on overcast days and off at night, also maximum winter demand coincides with minimum power generation.  PV is all part of a renewables portfolio alongside offshore wind etc.

There is also difficulties with our grid feed in capacity for solar,  and other issue is peak demand: having pumped storage availablility or reserve conventional gas power stations that can power up in a minute for when adverts the are on Coronation Street etc.

 I beleive in solar PV as a big solution for countries with the right geography, and a smaller part of our renewables portfolio here.  I see smart charging for EVs which react real time to grid generation, a two hour charge taken over 8 hours say. 

 When we have the right weather here we can do 50% uk grid power from renewables, which is real progress.   Oil reserves arguably too precious and useful a comomodity to waste on fuel, and energy policy is also part of national security, often overlooked. 

The big mistake of nuclear was this 1960's 'too cheap to meter' idea,  nuclear offers  energy solutions but it isn't really cheap.  (we still buy a lot of French nuclear power via an undersea cable).

 

[24gray24]

 

Oil is not going to run out. Falling energy prices mean that much of even the current reserves will be left in the ground as they become economically unviable.  

Over the next few years you will start to hear more about these stranded assets and the resulting write offs will push oil companies that have been slow to offload them into bankruptcy.   

Oil is going to become more and more expensive as it gets less and less economic to drill. 

And we can't manufacture things (including solar panels) without it. 

You can't argue for a bright future of cheap electricity when were facing a 70% shortfall in energy.. 

(Unless you watch the brexit thread, in which case you read the difficult future starts here 1 january).

We also need to avoid wars over diminishing raw materials... 

(And  the gulf stream stopping - Norway - and the ice caps melting - London,  Edinburgh, Cardiff,  Bristol etc etc)

Thank God we have a sensible government, and corporations that think beyond 5 years. 

 

[dryrot]

 

Oil is going to become more and more expensive as it gets less and less economic to drill. 

And we can't manufacture things (including solar panels) without it. 

You can't argue for a bright future of cheap electricity when were facing a 70% shortfall in energy.. 

(Unless you watch the brexit thread, in which case you read the difficult future starts here 1 january).

We also need to avoid wars over diminishing raw materials... 

(And  the gulf stream stopping - Norway - and the ice caps melting - London,  Edinburgh, Cardiff,  Bristol etc etc)

Thank God we have a sensible government, and corporations that think beyond 5 years. 

OK as far as it goes. But Shale is economic at $60per barrel.

Wars will start over ideology and power - raw materials are never worth fighting over,

[hayder]

 

Hookers will be replaced by robots that don’t carry VD or steal from punters   

what about designing fembots that do steal from punters?

[captainb]

 

Oil is going to become more and more expensive as it gets less and less economic to drill. 

And we can't manufacture things (including solar panels) without it. 

You can't argue for a bright future of cheap electricity when were facing a 70% shortfall in energy.. 

(Unless you watch the brexit thread, in which case you read the difficult future starts here 1 january).

We also need to avoid wars over diminishing raw materials... 

(And  the gulf stream stopping - Norway - and the ice caps melting - London,  Edinburgh, Cardiff,  Bristol etc etc)

Thank God we have a sensible government, and corporations that think beyond 5 years. 

 

Saudi oil is 7usd BBl to get out of the ground. Current expectation is even all of that won't get extracated before the world shifts. 

Even if it does you then have a natural cap in price at the 2 trillion barrels of oil sand oil - 60 to 80usd with transport. 

There is no need to ever dig the artic or any other super expensive deep sea stuff, now the tar sands tech exists, hence shell and Co canned all those programs. 

 

[Confusion of VIs]

 

Oil is going to become more and more expensive as it gets less and less economic to drill. 

And we can't manufacture things (including solar panels) without it. 

You can't argue for a bright future of cheap electricity when were facing a 70% shortfall in energy.. 

(Unless you watch the brexit thread, in which case you read the difficult future starts here 1 january).

We also need to avoid wars over diminishing raw materials... 

(And  the gulf stream stopping - Norway - and the ice caps melting - London,  Edinburgh, Cardiff,  Bristol etc etc)

Thank God we have a sensible government, and corporations that think beyond 5 years. 

 

It is oils declining price that will make it less economic to drill. Once there is a general realisation that much of the worlds oil reserves will be left in the ground the the game will be to get it out of the ground and sell it before the price drops. Norway has already realised this and is raising production rates. Eventually everything bar the very easy to extract fields (mainly Persian Gulf) will become unprofitable. 

Shale will probably never pay back the money invested in it to date, in addition the hugely wasteful extraction of oil from tar sands will become uneconomic overnight as soon as any significant Carbon tax is implemented. 

The driver for all of this is the continuing reduction of the cost of renewables, which is still happening at a rate far exceeding forecasts made only two or three years ago.

Today for most of the world electricity from a new solar plant is cheaper than a new gas or oil plant by 2025 it will be cheaper than continuing to provide fuel for an existing gas or coal power station and that is when the transition will start in earnest.  

It is this coming transition that will provide jobs for the next 20-30yrs, after that who knows. 

 

[Megadebt]

 Whilst I accept EV and environmental legislation could to reduce western oil demand,  could the developing world with increasing population and improving standards of living may become more reliant on it, cheaper the better? 

 Much of our used hgv, buses and 4x4 gets exported, particularly to eastern europe and ex brit colony RHD countries in Africa, these vehicles can be run for decades.  Type the word 'export' into any motors page and see all the scruffy MOT failures or pre euro 6 diesels.   

 Increases in heating, maritime, agricutural, aviation, plastics etc oil usage might offset motor vehicle consumption reductions in the developed world.  Oil is handy energy compared to difficult to store electricity and a supergrid to distribute it, again something that devoloping countries won't have. These countries may also be less interested in taking environmental advice from us.

   

 

[Confusion of VIs]

 

 Whilst I accept EV and environmental legislation could to reduce western oil demand,  could the developing world with increasing population and improving standards of living may become more reliant on it, cheaper the better? 

 Much of our used hgv, buses and 4x4 gets exported, particularly to eastern europe and ex brit colony RHD countries in Africa, these vehicles can be run for decades.  Type the word 'export' into any motors page and see all the scruffy MOT failures or pre euro 6 diesels.   

 Increases in heating, maritime, agricutural, aviation, plastics etc oil usage might offset motor vehicle consumption reductions in the developed world.  Oil is handy energy compared to difficult to store electricity and a supergrid to distribute it, again something that devoloping countries won't have. These countries may also be less interested in taking environmental advice from us.

In 5yrs EVs will be cheaper than ICE cars to buy, have far lower maintenance costs and in developing countries the advantage that you can fuel them for free from solar panels on your roof. The switchover will happen much faster than people think. 

This will happen because the future will be better, cheaper and cleaner than what we have today not because of pressure from environmentalists.      

[GregBowman]

 

I work in this space, and it will take longer than you think.

I've seen the really high-tech, very cool end of AI (drones, autonomous vehicles, high end Natural Language Processing, industrial inspection), but 95% of firms saying they are in the space are just talking BS and are simply repackaging old Machine Learning classification techniques as AI. Some of the models are so simple my mum could build  them.

Thank you for the update -  I had my own Managed service business through the 90's and up until recently. First break fix on proprietary  networks, AS400/3x, then moved into server based infrastructure, the the softer side of that, then cloud Office 365 etc

Still on some industry forums and I remember when we are all worried about Office 365 and the complete end of mid sized support firms. On those forums all the businesses seem in rude health just moved with the tech and things always need 'sorting' 

Thanks again 

 

 

Edited November 16, 2020 by GregBowman

[Riedquat]

 

But this isn’t the first time historical jobs have vanished.

That is true, but the more, erm, specialist examples like the one you give aside we're facing a very different situation than, say, prior to the Industrial Revolution. The problem with the automation advocates is that if you listen to their arguments about the benefits they sound like they're still trying to solve those old problems, back from a time when it was a struggle to supply everyone with barely enough to get by. There was always more that could be done if some of the basic workload was removed. But that was then. Now, in the western world, we've not really been short of much for half a century or more (some people always slip through the net, and there are a few more who it took a bit longer to filter through to). The rationale for all these changes is pretty much non-existent, it's become a vicious circle we can't escape from as businesses have to keep engaging with it to stay in place, let alone ahead. But sadly there's a world full of fools cheering it on instead of desperately hoping for a way out.

[GregBowman]

 

In 5yrs EVs will be cheaper than ICE cars to buy, have far lower maintenance costs and in developing countries the advantage that you can fuel them for free from solar panels on your roof. The switchover will happen much faster than people think. 

This will happen because the future will be better, cheaper and cleaner than what we have today not because of pressure from environmentalists.      

Totally. I have had a PHEV Golf GTE for over two years it is a 4 and half year old car. So the tech was probably designed in 2012/14 - how far has it moved since then ? It just is a great bit of kit, I last filled it up early October £25.00 done over 1500 miles plugging in whenever on the drive - No VED and service is just oil change. No degradation of battery capacity still 25-28 on a plug in. I think this will be the 'classic' of PHEV's since the engine is effectively a GTI block  and I doubt it will be different in manufacture from the ones put in the GTI. This will change as the engineers realise it won't need making to the same spec if it is only running for a fraction of the time

I am a big fan of PHEV's as a pragmatic interim solution even more so EV's with just a generator small engine like the i3

I think it is exciting times and now call myself a motion head not a petrol head

 

[Riedquat]

 

Totally. I have had a PHEV Golf GTE for over two years it is a 4 and half year old car. So the tech was probably designed in 2012/14 - how far has it moved since then ? It just is a great bit of kit, I last filled it up early October £25.00 done over 1500 miles plugging in whenever on the drive - No VED and service is just oil change. No degradation of battery capacity still 25-28 on a plug in. I think this will be the 'classic' of PHEV's since the engine is effectively a GTI block  and I doubt it will be different in manufacture from the ones put in the GTI. This will change as the engineers realise it won't need making to the same spec if it is only running for a fraction of the time

I am a big fan of PHEV's as a pragmatic interim solution even more so EV's with just a generator small engine like the i3

I think it is exciting times and now call myself a motion head not a petrol head

 

Main thing putting me off the idea of an electric car is simply the fact that they're new cars, jammed full of computers and electronics, and I always find excessive levels of technology to accomplish tasks that were being done perfectly adequately without them absurd and offputting. Give me a version of a decent 20 year old car (without too many of the fancy extras) but with an electric motor instead of the petrol and I'd probably be thinking of buying it. Or even 10 years old... (going too much in the other direction, i.e. older, they tended to rust apart in a few years, sorting that out definitely has been an improvement).

[GregBowman]

 

Main thing putting me off the idea of an electric car is simply the fact that they're new cars, jammed full of computers and electronics, and I always find excessive levels of technology to accomplish tasks that were being done perfectly adequately without them absurd and offputting. Give me a version of a decent 20 year old car (without too many of the fancy extras) but with an electric motor instead of the petrol and I'd probably be thinking of buying it. Or even 10 years old... (going too much in the other direction, i.e. older, they tended to rust apart in a few years, sorting that out definitely has been an improvement).

I am sort of in that camp and have an old Sunday car and motorbikes but....as the main car the GTE has won me over 

There are workshops springing up putting electric innards into older cars - really just extending what people are already doing plenty of VW Microbuses with upgraded electric power steering and air con just a hop on to the drive train (pricy though)

However on motorbikes the new tech makes for a sublime experience if you use the bike all year round. My BMW r1250RS has nav in its TFT dash, I can listen to music or make calls all controlled from the handlebars. The suspension and fuelling can be adjusted on the go and its traction control and abs know how far I am leaning over so it can adjust, it also has a shift cam engine that returns 50+MPG on a machine with  atop speed of 150mph - more torque than most cars where it counts 

To me its a tool and cheap for all that tech and more importantly safer - wouldn't have one without a warranty though

 

[Riedquat]

 

I am sort of in that camp and have an old Sunday car and motorbikes but....as the main car the GTE has won me over 

There are workshops springing up putting electric innards into older cars - really just extending what people are already doing plenty of VW Microbuses with upgraded electric power steering and air con just a hop on to the drive train (pricy though)

That might be a path to go down but at present I don't think you can get anywhere near the range with a conversion over a purpose-built electric, which will have been designed around the battery. Maybe battery technology will improve in the future to make it more feasible.

 

To me its a tool and cheap for all that tech and more importantly safer - wouldn't have one without a warranty though

Since I'm already not concerned about the safety issue (doesn't mean I think it's no risk, but it's at a level I'm satisfied with) going further in that direction is also a big turn-off personally speaking. Not because I want risk, but because I find it again absurd and excessive; I'd very much rather take my chances with a bit less "safety" than what we've already got (speaking very generally). Doesn't mean that I want to go right to the opposite extreme, or that there aren't still some areas I'd prefer to avoid (e.g. people setting up cones on the motorway - I'd find that alarmingly dangerous).

Now you could well argue that you don't have to look far to see so many people apparently in search of a Darwin award that even the most patronising, far-fetched safety measure is justified, but do we really want to live in a world where the assumption is that everyone is an imbecile and must be treated as such?

Edited November 16, 2020 by Riedquat

[GregBowman]

 

Now you could well argue that you don't have to look far to see so many people apparently in search of a Darwin award that even the most patronising, far-fetched safety measure is justified, but do we really want to live in a world where the assumption is that everyone is an imbecile and must be treated as such?

Motorcycles are dangerous and your safety is in your own hands these aids are useful and could save my life hasn't reached the car level yet 

[Riedquat]

 

Motorcycles are dangerous and your safety is in your own hands these aids are useful and could save my life hasn't reached the car level yet 

Lots of things could save my life. Not wearing shoes that use laces for example. There comes a point though where things done to save your life starts becoming insulting, and to me that point has been passed (although there are always exceptions).

Whether it's in your own hands or not I don't think is quite the right consideration, it's "am I worried about the risk?" wherever it's from, and "would I be if I was in that person's situation?" (rather than just saying "I'm helping them too!")

More and more I prefer the relatively low level of risk (only shows up in numbers simply due to the vast number of people around) to a world where everyone's treated like untrustworthy children. It's sad when we do ourselves such a disservice.

[GregBowman]

 

Lots of things could save my life. Not wearing shoes that use laces for example. There comes a point though where things done to save your life starts becoming insulting, and to me that point has been passed (although there are always exceptions).

Whether it's in your own hands or not I don't think is quite the right consideration, it's "am I worried about the risk?" wherever it's from, and "would I be if I was in that person's situation?" (rather than just saying "I'm helping them too!")

More and more I prefer the relatively low level of risk (only shows up in numbers simply due to the vast number of people around) to a world where everyone's treated like untrustworthy children. It's sad when we do ourselves such a disservice.

I am an advanced rider believe you me not safety conscious just want to see out my days on the porch - I ride faster than I often should and cover lots of miles therefore my risk profile goes up

Totally against nanny state tech - this tech lets me enjoy my passion whilst giving me an edge on S*** other road users nothing more nothing less

[Megadebt]

 

In 5yrs EVs will be cheaper than ICE cars to buy, have far lower maintenance costs and in developing countries the advantage that you can fuel them for free from solar panels on your roof. The switchover will happen much faster than people think. 

This will happen because the future will be better, cheaper and cleaner than what we have today not because of pressure from environmentalists.      

  I think developing countries will lag,  even domestic aircon or refigerators that could work so well on solar pv could be years away for much of the population, whilst there are millions of ICE vehicles and agricultural machinery in daily use now, old 80's Datsuns and Toyota still used for taxi cabs. This was my impression when I was in several southern African countries a decade ago, working on a vehicle export business. 

 Also battery and some electronics manufacture needs previous metals, this could become the big limiting resource.  Looking at world lithium reserves, Chile might be the next kuwait.

https://www.mining.com/tesla-warns-upcoming-battery-minerals-shortage/

 

I am sort of in that camp and have an old Sunday car and motorbikes but....as the main car the GTE has won me over 

There are workshops springing up putting electric innards into older cars - really just extending what people are already doing plenty of VW Microbuses with upgraded electric power steering and air con just a hop on to the drive train (pricy though)

 

 Scimitar GTE? the Sunday classic car?  Triumph Stag is me, had a few.

This retrofit ev is interesting, just a bolt a motor onto the differential and a some battery cells and a plug socket?  maybe will evolve like lpg where tanks were made in spare wheel sizes, or like the chop shop left/right hand drive back street conversions. This is where cheap labour could work in the devloping word, a glut of obsolete ICE vehicles exported and converted.  But they might just stick with oil for some time. 

 

[Riedquat]

 

This retrofit ev is interesting, just a bolt a motor onto the differential and a some battery cells and a plug socket?  maybe will evolve like lpg where tanks were made in spare wheel sizes, or like the chop shop left/right hand drive back street conversions. This is where cheap labour could work in the devloping word, a glut of obsolete ICE vehicles exported and converted.  But they might just stick with oil for some time.

It's getting enough batteries in to a vehicle never designed around it that I think's the big limiting factor. I saw a video once about a Morris Minor conversion (bit old even for me!), but it only had about 30 miles range IIRC.

[dugsbody]

 

I work in this space, and it will take longer than you think.

I've seen the really high-tech, very cool end of AI (drones, autonomous vehicles, high end Natural Language Processing, industrial inspection), but 95% of firms saying they are in the space are just talking BS and are simply repackaging old Machine Learning classification techniques as AI. Some of the models are so simple my mum could build  them.

The current state of machine learning is narrow intelligence gained from huge data and applied problems.

The skills that go into simple human tasks using judgement in adverse scenarios are a long, long way off for AI. 

Things like driving a vehicle is a closed box problem until it isn't, so there will be a backup human operator for a long time still. Perhaps this will be a fleet of emergency operators who can swiftly close the distance to a vehicle in problem, perhaps it will be an onboard human who skills up to double as a logistics person (trucking), perhaps it will be a remote operator with 360 view cameras on the vehicle.

That said, eventually we will penetrate into general intelligence and at that point all bets are off and that is the point the world truly changes. In my optimistic outlook it will result in incredibly cheap armies of robots constructing more robots for just about every task. Huge, very efficient food farms in previously unfarmable and undesirable locations could spring up, or possibly vast underground farms utilising cheaper energy sources. People would be able to spread out more, living "off grid" as their robot helpers manage a small-holding. We would reproduce less as that safety net of a large family that comes with the under-educated will be defunct. Consumables that cost a lot now would become incredibly cheap. I'd even wonder about the cost of raw materials sinking as though we'd demand a lot more we could recycle almost everything and getting it out the ground is cheap (infinite robot workers).

People worry that humans won't have jobs to afford things but they're always missing the most fundamental part of economics. Supply and demand. Anyone who wants to sell anything will have to price it according to what humans could now afford. And even that concept may lose all meaning because we may quickly reach something that looks like post-scarcity.

My less optimistic self wonders if we'd survive to see all this. If artificial general intelligence ever becomes achievable my pessimistic self thinks there are enough batshit crazy humans in the world that one of them will use it to destroy everyone else.

No real point estimating how far off AGI is but my wild speculation is somewhere between 30-100 years.

[Megadebt]

 

I am an advanced rider believe you me not safety conscious just want to see out my days on the porch - I ride faster than I often should and cover lots of miles therefore my risk profile goes up

Totally against nanny state tech - this tech lets me enjoy my passion whilst giving me an edge on S*** other road users nothing more nothing less

 Fast bikes like booze, tolerance goes up as with dependency, and needs more to hit the spot again. My kawasaki 80's z1100R  was quite a handful, no driver aids, but after regular daily use and I was ragging it everywhere.  Less is more.

[GregBowman]

 

  I think developing countries will lag,  even domestic aircon or refigerators that could work so well on solar pv could be years away for much of the population, whilst there are millions of ICE vehicles and agricultural machinery in daily use now, old 80's Datsuns and Toyota still used for taxi cabs. This was my impression when I was in several southern African countries a decade ago, working on a vehicle export business. 

 Also battery and some electronics manufacture needs previous metals, this could become the big limiting resource.  Looking at world lithium reserves, Chile might be the next kuwait.

https://www.mining.com/tesla-warns-upcoming-battery-minerals-shortage/

 Scimitar GTE? the Sunday classic car?  Triumph Stag is me, had a few.

This retrofit ev is interesting, just a bolt a motor onto the differential and a some battery cells and a plug socket?  maybe will evolve like lpg where tanks were made in spare wheel sizes, or like the chop shop left/right hand drive back street conversions. This is where cheap labour could work in the devloping word, a glut of obsolete ICE vehicles exported and converted.  But they might just stick with oil for some time. 

 

Golf GTE ! PHEV 

My Sunday car is an Aston Vantage surprisingly cheap to run Ford/Jag/Volvo bits engine unbreakable and plenty of alternative parts out there and boy still gets the looks at 16 years old - been very reliable now using as a second car 

Retro fit interesting few people springing up - Its why write-offs of pure EV's are expensive there is a demand. Would suit a big yank tank 

https://www.electricclassiccars.co.uk/

 

 

[GregBowman]

 

 Fast bikes like booze, tolerance goes up as with dependency, and needs more to hit the spot again. My kawasaki 80's z1100R  was quite a handful, no driver aids, but after regular daily use and I was ragging it everywhere.  Less is more.

True but it is my main form of transport so could be tired or bad weather conditions when riding that's what I  meant aids could save your life  - totally agree less is more got one of these no aids at all and great fun