Nationwide January - +1.4% Mom - +4.4% Yoy

[Guest Riser]

They have'nt released regional data??

Why!!

Is it because N Ireland are the ones distorting the figures.

N Ireland should'nt even be included in the survey as they are in the Euro zone and have interest rates a lot lower than britain.

Nationwide only release regional on a quarterly basis.

HPI in Northern Ireland has followed a much different pattern to the National average and may still have some way to go due to the piece dividend unless prices start to crash in Southern Ireland.

Northern Ireland HPI different to UK trend and still going up for now causing distortion of Nationwides figures!

[HPCheese]

Always makes me laugh

Average price July 2005- £158348

Average price Jan 2006 - £158478

But prices have increased each month by 0.2%, 0.1%, 0.1%,0.9%,0.4%,0.5%,1.4%

So in six months we have had an increase of 3.6% which means the average house should be £163048

Actually in six months we have had an increase of 0.08% (if my maths is right?)

Excellent work.

Infact according to Nationwide's own data :

House prices have risen by £130 or 0.082% in the last 6 months.

And according to this months regional HBOS figures this is solely down to still rising prices in Scotland and NI.

Let's see a national newspaper print those numbers.

Of course we all know they won't.

Don't believe the hype.

Edited January 31, 2006 by HPCheese

[dnd]

I don't think Nationwides figures should even be discussed

I had to wake up to the BBC news pumping out this VI c**p this morning...

[Smell the Fear]

There is an excellent graph in that report, showing real house prices vs. long term trend.

The pattern is unmistakable and obvious. Prices rise above trend then overshoot below trend. At the moment we are hugely above trend, and literally wobbling, teetering on the brink.

Have patience, we are nearly there!

[the don]

There is an excellent graph in that report, showing real house prices vs. long term trend.

The pattern is unmistakable and obvious. Prices rise above trend then overshoot below trend. At the moment we are hugely above trend, and literally wobbling, teetering on the brink.

Have patience, we are nearly there!

i was a tad dismayed at the headline.

however, nothing has changed .

the south is experiencing real price falls. the midlands is flat and the north is still rising but at a slower rate.

during 06 the prospects are for the south to continue dropping 5%-10 % pa. midlands to drop 0%-5% pa. and the north to be flat.

2007 will see the trend continue.

by 2008 i expect the south to be stabilised at 0%, the midlands dropping at 5% and the north droping at 10%.

in some ways this data is positive because it removes some of the excuses for a stimulative interest rate drop from browns stooges on the mpc

[Guest Fiddlesticks]

I don't think Nationwides figures should even be discussed

I had to wake up to the BBC news pumping out this VI c**p this morning...

This sounds a bit like putting your fingers in your ears and singing loudly when anyone says anything that doesn't fit your world view. If we aim to have a serious discussion about house prices we can't ignore the Nationwide figures. The heady mix of conspiracy theories and witchhunts which go on here doesn't do much for the credibility of our discussions.

[Spirit]

Even the expats are beginning to doubt the data...

Originally Posted by GinaUK

According to the BBC web site, house prices "pick up in January". Article here: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4664598.stm

Hope this means that all those waiting to sell their houses will see things moving, especially Rooksie and Anastasia Beaverhousen!

Gina

Our's is going DOWN!!!

Just got off phone with estate agent after telling him to reduce price by £20K and still open to reasonable offers.

Ian

ours too - we have had to accept an offer £15K below asking price

regards

vb2

http://britishexpats.com/forum/showthread.php?t=351970

[bubbleturbo]

And how many of these approvals were in anticipation of SIPPs--the U-Turn occured in November I believe and it is possible that hundreds of applications only made it through to approval in December.

Indeed. The Nationwide obviously are aware of trends on a daily/weekly basis and I am sure there are all sorts of internal management reports.

Still, Nationwide said there was little chance the recent housing market pick-up would persist given economic growth was set to be below the long-run average, unemployment was likely to rise and affordability remained stretched.

"It is unlikely that the market could absorb another strong rally of house price inflation," said Earley.

"In addition, there are already indications that consumers' appetite for further unsecured debt may be diminishing and that the amount of extra borrowing against property has slowed."

The lender has predicted house prices will rise by between 0 and 3 percent in 2006.

Which would explain this downbeat response:

1. They either know that in recent weeks/post SIPPS the market has gone quiet again.

2. They are trying to play down a rally as they think it is highly possible the BofE will raise rates.

Normally, the Nationwide would be jumping up and down and screaming for everyone to "get on the ladder, don't miss the boat" yada yada. A real good opportunity for RAMPING UP THE MARKET - Why this downbeat response???

Any thoughts?

[Smell the Fear]

Indeed. The Nationwide obviously are aware of trends on a daily/weekly basis and I am sure there are all sorts of internal management reports.

Which would explain this downbeat response:

1. They either know that in recent weeks/post SIPPS the market has gone quiet again.

2. They are trying to play down a rally as they think it is highly possible the BofE will raise rates.

Normally, the Nationwide would be jumping up and down and screaming for everyone to "get on the ladder, don't miss the boat" yada yada. A real good opportunity for RAMPING UP THE MARKET - Why this downbeat response???

Any thoughts?

The writing is on the wall, and they don't want to take any flak after the falls. If they keep ramping, they will be branded irresponsible, and will get no sympathy when a "windfall" tax is proposed. As much as we like to hate them, they DO care about their corporate image, at least a little bit.

As the report states, "all risks are on the downside". That is the simple reason why entering the market now is madness. THERE IS NO UPSIDE.

As TTRTR likes to say, "Heads I win, Tails you lose". Unfortunately any purchaser or owner today is on the wrong side of that con trick.

Edited January 31, 2006 by Smell the Fear

[Given Up]

Could we possibly agree on which figures we can believe? Rightmove has been discredited as being based on asking prices. It must be possible to reach consensus on using the same set of figures each month rather than arguing over whether they are accurate or not.

[Yankee]

i was a tad dismayed at the headline.

however, nothing has changed .

the south is experiencing real price falls. the midlands is flat and the north is still rising but at a slower rate.

This is exactly the pattern that happened during the last crash. Can one of the HPC historians refresh our memories? Newbies to this site would particularly benefit (e.g., not panic into thinking that prices are spiralling back upwards) by a little historical perspective.

I'd have preferred to wake to better housing news today, however. I'm thinking I have to leave this country soon. Alito is going to be confirmed to our Supreme Court today , and our president is going to tell us the state of our union tonight.

[Guest Fiddlesticks]

Could we possibly agree on which figures we can believe? Rightmove has been discredited as being based on asking prices. It must be possible to reach consensus on using the same set of figures each month rather than arguing over whether they are accurate or not.

This was settled long ago. We use whichever figures show the lowest increases.

[Tempest]

This was settled long ago. We use whichever figures show the lowest increases.

Cynic. Fiddlesticks, if I didn't know better I'd almost say from your cumulative posts that, despite purporting to be a reluctant bear, you are in fact a closet bull/VI playing a fifth columnist type role from within HPC to dampen any exuberant bear posts! Hows that for a conspiracy theory.

But seriously, is there any aspect of the current changes in the market, increased negative sentiment and reporting data which truly enthuses you?

[Guest Fiddlesticks]

Cynic. Fiddlesticks, if I didn't know better I'd almost say from your cumulative posts that, despite purporting to be a reluctant bear, you are in fact a closet bull/VI playing a fifth columnist type role from within HPC to dampen any exuberant bear posts! Hows that for a conspiracy theory.

But seriously, is there any aspect of the current changes in the market, increased negative sentiment and reporting data which truly enthuses you?

I'm sure my outing by the moderators is due any day now.

My feelings on the market fluctuate. I would dearly like lower house prices for selfish reasons (which in fact makes me a VI). From the data I've seen over the past couple of weeks and what I see going on around me (in central-ish London) I don't think I'm going to get them within the next six months. I think I might as well read tea leaves as anything else to know what could happen beyond that six month horizon. And I don't believe in pretending that inconvenient data doesn't exist or dreaming up conspiracy theories to explain it away. That might help to point score in some sort of argument (not that there IS much argument here) but it doesn't help to make rational decisions and that (I guess) is what most of us need to do.

[Tempest]

I'm sure my outing by the moderators is due any day now.

My feelings on the market fluctuate. I would dearly like lower house prices for selfish reasons (which in fact makes me a VI). From the data I've seen over the past couple of weeks and what I see going on around me (in central-ish London) I don't think I'm going to get them within the next six months. I think I might as well read tea leaves as anything else to know what could happen beyond that six month horizon. And I don't believe in pretending that inconvenient data doesn't exist or dreaming up conspiracy theories to explain it away. That might help to point score in some sort of argument (not that there IS much argument here) but it doesn't help to make rational decisions and that (I guess) is what most of us need to do.

Noted. I read several forums on the subject of economics, investing and HPs generally - all have something different to offer (some are dryer, more rigid economic discussions, others are largely based on anecdotal evidence etc). What brings me back to HPC is the sheer enthusiasm for the whole thing and the variety of the posters - yes a few people get carried away/petty/paranoid and others lose sight of things but overall the blend of desire for wider insight here along with a yearning to understand why "news" and "data" from public sources is not necessarily true are hallmarks of independent and critical thought. Its also a fun and relatively honest site.

If you are a buyer holding out why wait? If the answer is that you truly fear HPC/lower prices then accept that you will not see things realign fully for a couple of years and get stuck in by adding to the HPC debate. Look harder at the data you see (here or elsewhere) - interpret it, tell us your view. Be as balanced as you like. I was only ribbing you because it seemed that you only responded to put down a post or other.

[libitina]

http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30400-13500595,00.html

'However, its survey is in contrast to others recently which suggest property prices are stagnant'

Has Sky rumbled Nationwide?

[othello]

No use burying our heads in the sand. From the data so far it's not looking like a promising start to 2006. I really don't think we're going to get a crash this year.

People need to wake up and smeel the coffee - house prices are crashing. The thing is you won't know it until it's all over. During the last crash Nationwide continued to show rises in their figures until the last year of the crash - at which point the market was on the rise again!

The statistics provide an EXTREMELY distorted view of the market because they only reflect the transactions that are happening. I am sure there is somebody here who can explain why better than I can so I won't attempt to do so.

The bottom line is that you cannot believe the propaganda put out by the VIs. Make an offer on a place that has been on the market a while and see what you could buy it for if you chose to do so - but make sure you don't buy - prices have a way to go yet.

[boom_and_bust]

Hi,

Whenever there is a fresh bull-run-perspective on some current news, do well to follow up the links here for the press reporting during the last crash. I don't know how many people here can clearly remember the last one (or indeed the one before that) but even around 1991 I clearly remember a lot of confusion, mixed messages flying around in the press and the lender stats. It's all here, just look and make you're own mind up. Even if a big surge was about to happen (excuse my while I duck that low flying pig), you've seen all the perspectives on that - basically you'll be screwed even if you did try to jump on the housing bubble and make a 10x self-cert income mortgage. If inflation stayed low, you'll be living in that miserable box for the rest of your debt-angst-ridden days. If it does go up, how are you going to keep up the payments when the interest rates go up? It's not to be negative, you may get a mega career jump during that time, you may win the lottery, a lot of things may let you get out of that undesireable position. I say 1991 because I personally know someone who took a near 50% hit on a flat in that year when many of the indices and reports were saying 'bottoming out but broadly steady, some falls, some rises, but next year will be greeat! blah, blah, blah'.

You weigh it up and then also look at the wage rates quoted around the country for many jobs to realise that even if you personally can scam a 10x self-cert, you will be in a minority and the hardest hit when Gordon's economic chicken's finally come home to roost. And roost they will, much commentary has recently being given to Gordon's dire economic facade and the deteriorating position. Even Mr. economist-housing VI David Smith at the Times - who simultaneously berates the Chancellor's reckless position in the economy and the nose dive in the economy but then says that oh, well, housing won't be affected because, er, well, it's kindof like, er, can we talk about something else,...... It's not healthy to be thinking of X-File conspiracies and the housing market but it's just as unhealthy not to think that spining does not go on. All I can say is that this feels no different to the very early ninetees when the likes of Halliwide were pumping out some mixed but broadly ok housing indice figures and publications like the Times were saying 'this year set for big boost' when infact, afterwards, we saw things were very sickly just a couple of years later. They spun and lied last time. You think to yourself if they cried wolf once to many times and if they would do it again, read their commentary from last time, think about how much they have riding on this and why you will likely not see some of the big regional falls last year mentioned anywhere.

Boomer

Edited January 31, 2006 by boom_and_bust

[bubbleturbo]

Does anyone know what the non Seasonally Adjusted figure was ? ? ? ?

[ElPapasito]

Hi,

Whenever there is a fresh bull-run-perspective on some current news, do well to follow up the links here for the press reporting during the last crash. I don't know how many people here can clearly remember the last one (or indeed the one before that) but even around 1991 I clearly remember a lot of confusion, mixed messages flying around in the press and the lender stats. It's all here, just look and make you're own mind up. Even if a big surge was about to happen (excuse my while I duck that low flying pig), you've seen all the perspectives on that - basically you'll be screwed even if you did try to jump on the housing bubble and make a 10x self-cert income mortgage. If inflation stayed low, you'll be living in that miserable box for the rest of your debt-angst-ridden days. If it does go up, how are you going to keep up the payments when the interest rates go up? It's not to be negative, you may get a mega career jump during that time, you may win the lottery, a lot of things may let you get out of that undesireable position. I say 1991 because I personally know someone who took a near 50% hit on a flat in that year when many of the indices and reports were saying 'bottoming out but broadly steady, some falls, some rises, but next year will be greeat! blah, blah, blah'.

You weigh it up and then also look at the wage rates quoted around the country for many jobs to realise that even if you personally can scam a 10x self-cert, you will be in a minority and the hardest hit when Gordon's economic chicken's finally come home to roost. And roost they will, much commentary has recently being given to Gordon's dire economic facade and the deteriorating position. Even Mr. economist-housing VI David Smith at the Times - who simultaneously berates the Chancellor's reckless position in the economy and the nose dive in the economy but then says that oh, well, housing won't be affected because, er, well, it's kindof like, er, can we talk about something else,...... It's not healthy to be thinking of X-File conspiracies and the housing market but it's just as unhealthy not to think that spining does not go on. All I can say is that this feels no different to the very early ninetees when the likes of Halliwide were pumping out some mixed but broadly ok housing indice figures and publications like the Times were saying 'this year set for big boost' when infact, afterwards, we saw things were very sickly just a couple of years later. They spun and lied last time. You think to yourself if they cried wolf once to many times and if they would do it again, read their commentary from last time, think about how much they have riding on this and why you will likely not see some of the big regional falls last year mentioned anywhere.

Boomer

Spot on Boomer.

Somebody (Spline?) posted a brilliant graph showing the changing price of flats in in a particular block in Southampton using house sale prices from one of the online databases. That was very interesting. No mistaking the peak in 03/04 and subsequent slide.

Does anybody have access to the whole house price database and the programming skills to pick out every property sold twice. By plotting the % drops / rises between two fixed time points you'd have precise and spin-free data on what is happening market wide.

EP