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the don

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    chester-STR-Last time buyer
  1. i am sorry to advise that as a low frequency poster but regular reader i have been dismayed by the deterioration of this sites management. goodbye and good luck to you all ( inc ttrtr and the trolls) the don
  2. the independent recently estimated that the true level of inflation is 4%- not the 2% rubbish that the mpc reports on its doctored inflation measures. i believe rates will peak between 6% and 7% in 18 months -2years. if the mpc dont raise to this rate then i think the bond market will recognise the onset of inflation and a depreciating curencey and gilts will rise. i was of the opinion recently that the mpc would keep rates down on browns instructions. howver, since the G8 sumit it looks as though central bankers are tightening in tandem g brown has also recently made some speeches where he is talking tougher on inflation. i think therefore that he may decide to tackle inalation . i am not convinced, but more hopeful then 3 months ago. in any event we are going to have a big recession.
  3. this thread was about whether laurejon has moved from the bull to the bear camp. he hasn't answered that and i used to think he was a bull, but his posts have in recent times been very bearish. i totally agree with laurejon's analysis of what labour is doing to the uk economy. do i believe that another party would do better? well, yes. the tories were spot on for most of the 1980s . they lost the plot a little with the lawson boom and the doomed erm entry. however, john major put the wagon back on the wheels. i thought at first that labour had taken the right approach. however, their suppression of interest rates through the proxy of the rigged mpc , their waste of billions on unreformed public services, the lining of the cronies pockets and the destruction of our enterprise culture is criminal. they will pay the price one day and the tories will have to sort it out again. i worry for some people who cannot analyse the facts and think for them selves. instead they take the easy path and swallow new labour's lies and propaganda. reminiscent of germany in the 1930s. the don
  4. i know tha area a lttle having lived in bexhill( well little common actually ) in the late 1980s, i moved there with my company . i bought a new 3 bed detached for £85,000. 12 months later i had to move again and my company bridged me. the house had increased to £125,000 in that time!! i moved and the house did not sell . after nearly 2 years on the market my company took a write down on the house. it sold for....£85,000. my view is that that part of east sussex is one of the lowest wealth areas in the south east. there are wealthy people who retire from london. the local industry pays cr*p wages and the rail links into london are too slow for people to commute.
  5. saw an interesring technical analyisis on bloomberg yesterday. in summary the view was that gilts are on an upward trend and should hit 7.5%%n 2-3 years time. this will probably result in mortgage rates of > 8% IMHO this is only balancing out the last few years of very low IRS caused by japans zirp and the fidlling of inflation targets by gordon brown. i would think that 8% mortgage rates will be a killer for many who have bought property at ludicrous prices in the last couple of years.
  6. Do you mean the likes of Phil Spencer and Kirstie Allsop? or do you mean solicitors and surveyors?
  7. i think i know where everyone was today. went walking in snowdonia( mynydd mawr) ,came down about 2pm. drove through beddgelert. the place wa absolutely heaving. never ever seen so many people in this little village. and the sun was shining. ps for all those who live south of birmingham, snowdonia is in wales and has mountains
  8. this just staves off the day when they go to the wall. i will email dubya and suggest that when it goes bust, the US government invests say $20 bn and they get the Phoenix 4 ( from MG Rover) to run the new business until the cash runs out
  9. btb humble apologies i mis-read your post which i took that you did not find it interesting. the don
  10. btb i would be interested in knowing what you would find interesting. this is a hpcrash site with bears and bulls commenting on the situaation and trends. most rational people have concluded that the UK hpi is mainlya result of excess liquidity caused by readily available debt, people willing to take on debt and low interest rates. i think most of us here( bulls and bears) know that the ,most likely change in sentiment will be when the debt bubble bursts. this might be under its own wieght, but rising interest rates will accelerate it. rbs good work in identifying what is happening is an early indicator of the likely trajectory and timing of the turning point. if you dont work on facts you might as well go to mystic meg to find out when the market will change trajectory
  11. charlie what singles out bagehot for this prvilege. nearly all of us UK posters fall into teh same category( an employee of gb), either directly or indirectly. whilst i may have missed many postings why is bagehot being trolled. ?? the don
  12. I see that you hail from Blackpol, Homeless the north is finally seeing the slowdown that started 2 years ago in the south i am also involved in building ( and managment consultancy) heavsyside building material sales are pretty dire nationally we will shortly see if they pick up in line with the normal seasonal surge at easter, but i suspect not. i think the recession is currently confined to the private sector ( retail, manufacturing building and motor trade) and will only hit the public sector once the treasury starts cutting funds. the definition of a recession is when you know someone who is unemployed a depression is when you are unemployed
  13. the numbers of mortages approved in jan & feb 2006 are a little lower than the approvals numbers of 2003. according to bba numbers in 2003 there were 914,000 approvals in 2004 830,000 and in 2005 there were 753,000 approvals this correlates with slowing activity. average amounts lent increased over that period from £84,000-£132,000 NO surprise there. the big question is whether we will return to 2003 volumes or will it stay at 2005 volumes or lower. my guess is that it will dropp if the investors get out, as these prices are unaffordable to many normal purchasers. http://www.bba.org.uk/content/1/c4/60/23/stats270705.pdf
  14. pelican the mpc is not really independent. gordon brown appoints the 5 lay members and the bank officials will realise that the government will determine their careers. gb also sets the inflation target and the way it is calculated. this is why he has excluded housing costs. if these were really honest politicians and bankers they would target money supply growth rather than a bullsh1t number.
  15. pelican spot on riser( i think) produces graphs of MEW every quarter. if you look at the pattern this time it is the same as the last crash. mew has been dropping like a stone for sevarl quarters there may be slight upticks buit the drop in mew will take the guts out of our miracle economy. then they will find that we cant rebuild on the back of the exterminated manufacturing scetor.
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