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Jason

Nationwide January - +1.4% Mom - +4.4% Yoy

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Nationwide January: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Jan2006.pdf

"Growth of borrowing has slowed according to the latest Bank of England data" I thought M4 lending was at a all time record!

"Recent labour market data is also on the weak side which suggest that a cut could still be on the cards." They still like to hint at the possibility of a rate cut!

What do you think?

N.b: Without the seasonal adjustment prices rose 0.78% MoM.

Edited by Jason

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Guest The_Oldie
“However, the pickup in house price inflation and the possibility of further rises in the short term

could strengthen consumer confidence and encourage further spending. This would undoubtedly be

good news for the UK economy and would facilitate its path back towards trend. But if house prices

rise too far, alarm bells will ring among those MPC members concerned about asset price inflation and

will make rate cuts less likely in 2006.”

Surely all MPC members should be concerned about asset price inflation.

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Surely all MPC members should be concerned about asset price inflation.

Just like they've been concerned for years! :lol:

Here comes the news:

Retuers: http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/newsAr...-NATIONWIDE.xml

BBC: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4664598.stm

(I asked the BBC to mention the regional breakdown for the top and bottom 10 counties in this report - lets see if they do it)

Scotsman: http://business.scotsman.com/latest.cfm?id=155112006

Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=100...gfIJ6k&refer=uk

Edited by Jason

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Guest Riser

This increase in Asking prices is linked to the interest rate cut in August and was to be expected. House prices lag interest rate changes by around 10 months, it used to take a bit longer but I guess thats due modern technology and improved information flow.

Interest rates are now at artificially low levels and the banks are hiding the true state of inflation in order to jusify their low rates and prevent higher wages. They are prepared to use mass immigration as a mechanism for keeping average wages down while encouraging home owners to take on yet more debt by ramping property prices. Sooner or later they will reverse the process and reap their harvest leaving much of the UK housing market in the hands of the older generations who have paid off their mortgages and the banks.

The commodity bull market is a sign that the value of money in peoples pockets and associated value of their houses is not all it seems. These low interest rates are devaluing their currency in real terms so these increases reported by Nationwide should be viewed in context. This weeks M0 figures show that there is now around 10% more printed and elecronic UK money floating around than last year which is not reflected in house prices. With houses gosting 40% above the long term average, the situation can't continue.

InterestRateHPI.gif HPI laggs interest rate changes by around 10 months

post-1619-1138695288.gif

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If there is plenty of money about, and interest rates remain low, we can expect HPI to be steady, and in positive figures, for the foreseeable future

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The normal spin machine is at work, but there seems to be a lot of “and, if, maybe", backside covering going on in the report, like they are expecting to see the numbers go south soon. Then maybe they are able to say, “we warned you, told you”.

Or am I in cloud cuckoo land just hoping.

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Guest Fiddlesticks

More delusional nonesense here...

No use burying our heads in the sand. From the data so far it's not looking like a promising start to 2006. I really don't think we're going to get a crash this year.

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This increase in Asking prices is linked to the interest rate cut in August and was to be expected. House prices lag interest rate changes by around 10 months, it used to take a bit longer but I guess thats due modern technology and improved information flow.

InterestRateHPI.gif HPI laggs interest rate changes by around 10 months

10 months ago interest rates were at their peak of 4.75%. If rates have since dropped since then does that mean house prices are set to rise further? :huh:

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It was to be expected! You cant start a year with BAD NEWS! We all know that when the results were bad they used to say - well thats normal for this time of the year! Since when has January been a boom month? You need to read between the lines.

I THINK THERE IS A SMALL ELEMENT OF TRUTH IN THIS! Pre-bought properties in the SIPPS deal would have gone through I imagine? But read a bit lower and I think it is quite clear that the market is PHUCKED!!!

I have never known the Bulls to be soo Bearish!

Earley warned that the housing market's current strength is unlikely to be maintained, however. She said sluggish economic growth and a lack of affordability, both for first-time buyers and existing homeowners looking to trade-up, will keep a lid on prices. Indeed, she has pencilled in price rises of 3% at best this year.

She said: 'Further rises in unemployment are possible and most of the risks [to the economy] seem to be on the downside. In addition, growing uncertainty over pensions has made saving more important.

'While this could generate renewed demand for housing as a form of pension saving in the longer term, consumers may focus on more traditional forms of savings and debt repayment in the short term, especially as the stock market recovers.'

I think they are all covering their ass because they know whats coming. I am even more confident this morning AFTER reading this then I was yesterday! When was the last time they said all the bold lettering above when releasing a report? They used to say the OPPOSITE to bolster their claims!

They know the numbers up - They are getting desperate!

IR rise in March is my call! Then we start to Slliiiiiiiddddeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!

TB

Edited by teddyboy

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To be fair, a lot of bears on here were expecting this, so it's not too much of a surprise. Loads of properties have sold in the last few weeks.

However, the amount that have come onto the market since the new year is astonishing, so I think we can expect this up-turn to be pretty short-lived. I reckon it will be back to steady price decreases by April.

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I don't know how they get away with this crap. There are loads of reduced properties on the market. Also houses new on the market are being priced higher than similar houses that aren't selling at much lower prices! What the hell is going on! It's either madness or desparation to try and drive the market upwards.

:angry:

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On the Nationwide site there's a device where you enter a house price and a region and it tells you whether the price has gone up or down in the last twelve months, and if so by how much. Over the last year it is of course Scotland and NI that have led the way, by 9% and 13%. Some falls elsewhere. It looks to me that on the very best case scenario (from a bearish position) nationwide falls won't be seen until Scotland and NI have got it out of their system.

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Always makes me laugh

Average price July 2005- £158348

Average price Jan 2006 - £158478

But prices have increased each month by 0.2%, 0.1%, 0.1%,0.9%,0.4%,0.5%,1.4%

So in six months we have had an increase of 3.6% which means the average house should be £163048

Actually in six months we have had an increase of 0.08% (if my maths is right?)

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Always makes me laugh

Average price July 2005- £158348

Average price Jan 2006 - £158478

But prices have increased each month by 0.2%, 0.1%, 0.1%,0.9%,0.4%,0.5%,1.4%

So in six months we have had an increase of 3.6% which means the average house should be £163048

Actually in six months we have had an increase of 0.08% (if my maths is right?)

Is that the 'seasonal adjustment'? (If so, it's a very long season!)

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What a morning, my alarm went off to the sound Fionnula crapping on about it..ahhgg

Does anyone know if there is any regional data to go with this, hopefully that will give us a clearer picture just like the Halfax data we celebrated last week.

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The higher the market goes the more painful the crash will be for the people who have over extended themselves.

As I have said on a couple of previous threads - our house goes on the market today - having seen the bullish news this morning from the Nationwide I am instructing to the EA to up the asking price over what we originally agreed :D

I suspect he will not be happy as a higher price naturally reduces the chances of a quick sale and therefore his chances of get a quick commission...my simple answer is any idiot could sell the house at a "Below Market Value price" (I think thats the term they use in singing-pig)

I am sure there are enough people out there who are stupid enough to buy our house even at this increased price - it really is a "nice house" and this bullish news that is plastered in virtually every newspaper and news website help my house sell.

So there we have a classic case of a person who knows the market is grossly over valued (I estimates by 30-40%) but at the same time refuses to sell his own asset at a price less than the market will tolerate.

The beauty about market forces !

Is this personal GREED or simple market forces at work ? - I think its just a desire to make sure I dont get financially shafted and priced out of the market when we come to buy at a later date (we are STRing)

Edited by eternalnomad

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I emailed Fionnuala (sexy name, you have to admit) this morning and got a reply within ten minutes saying they didn't release regional data. But I entered a £200000 property into their website calculator and asked it to find the price movement by region between Q3 2005 and Q4 2005. The results were as follows -

N Ireland +5%

Scotland +0.4%

Yorks & Humberside +0.69%

South East +0.6%

Outer SE +0.4%

E Anglia +0.21%

London 0%

Outer Metropolitain -0.33%

North West -1%

E Midlands -1.92%

Wales -1.93%

W Midlands -2.3%

North -4.92%

OK, it's only one price band, but it appears to show that in some regions there's a crash going on.

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OK, it's only one price band, but it appears to show that in some regions there's a crash going on.

Interesting post which confirms the Nationwide spin. I would like the data to be able to calculate the weighted averages.

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I emailed Fionnuala (sexy name, you have to admit) this morning and got a reply within ten minutes saying they didn't release regional data. But I entered a £200000 property into their website calculator and asked it to find the price movement by region between Q3 2005 and Q4 2005. The results were as follows -

N Ireland +5%

Scotland +0.4%

Yorks & Humberside +0.69%

South East +0.6%

Outer SE +0.4%

E Anglia +0.21%

London 0%

Outer Metropolitain -0.33%

North West -1%

E Midlands -1.92%

Wales -1.93%

W Midlands -2.3%

North -4.92%

OK, it's only one price band, but it appears to show that in some regions there's a crash going on.

They have'nt released regional data??

Why!!

Is it because N Ireland are the ones distorting the figures.

N Ireland should'nt even be included in the survey as they are in the Euro zone and have interest rates a lot lower than britain.

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Guest Fiddlesticks

They have'nt released regional data??

Why!!

Is it because N Ireland are the ones distorting the figures.

N Ireland should'nt even be included in the survey as they are in the Euro zone and have interest rates a lot lower than britain.

Check again, Nothern Ireland is as much part of the United Kingdom as Surrey, they have the same interest rates as Surrey and they use the pound.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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