Looking to buy 2018/19

[JoeDavola]

23 hours ago, zamo said:

I've decided to put the brakes on my purchase.

Brexit has put the jitters up me.

Best case scenario 2.5% GDP drop by the Governments own estimate in NI. https://news.sky.com/story/hit-to-northern-ireland-and-north-east-england-gdp-revealed-in-new-brexit-impact-papers-leak-11240254

In the depths of the GFC the GDP decreased around this figure in the Uk and that knocked 20% off prices there.

https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/7501/economics/the-great-recession/

With the Fed increasing interest rates, the Uk is likely to follow, even at a slow pace. I read last week that a 2% interest rate rise in the UK would lead to a 20% default on already stretched mortgage owners.

I feel the market i'm looking at around the 350-450k mark is a bit overpriced and id be happy to pay asking prices -20% for some of the properties.

The home owners and agents need a bit of pain first to get realistic in expectations.

I've also been keeping an eye on the London ripple and things have been dropping with activity slowing dramatically over the last 6-12 months.

I think its best to hold off until March 2019 and see what kind of deal these idiots come up with.

Here's hoping you're right. I get a good laugh on a regular basis at what prices are being asked these days. There's a flat for sale in Obel tower, which I got the impression they couldn't sell flats in for love nor money because of the cost cutting when building it (wall mounted electric heaters, reports of poor heat insulation)....

....a 2 bed flat, £319K:

https://www.propertynews.com/property-for-sale/belfast/apartment-type/62+donegall+quay/ST0111211101253006769?sort=Relevance&status[]=For+Sale&sector[]=Residential&keywords=obel&offset=0&limit=10

[Belfast Boy]

Has anyone been up to 'the port' recently! The amount of flats... cough, sorry, apartments that are being built is amazing. Or maybe it's just because they are located in prominent areas.

Here's an example - http://www.simonbrien.com/new-homes/the-vue-bt52-8da-1093

I didn't realise that 'the port' was a haven for lottery winners.

Maybe they are expecting The Open golfers might settle down in 'the port'. It is advertised as the Major Golf Capital of the World.

[JoeDavola]

26 minutes ago, Belfast Boy said:

Has anyone been up to 'the port' recently! The amount of flats... cough, sorry, apartments that are being built is amazing. Or maybe it's just because they are located in prominent areas.

Here's an example - http://www.simonbrien.com/new-homes/the-vue-bt52-8da-1093

I didn't realise that 'the port' was a haven for lottery winners.

Maybe they are expecting The Open golfers might settle down in 'the port'. It is advertised as the Major Golf Capital of the World.

I'm assuming that kinda money could also get you an apartment on a beach in a part of the world where it's actually sunny for most of the year.

[Simhadri]

Looking to buy second home in north kent. Cant trust pension scams. Properdee is safest compared to putting cash in the hands of philip  green.

[2buyornot2buy]

2 hours ago, Belfast Boy said:

Has anyone been up to 'the port' recently! The amount of flats... cough, sorry, apartments that are being built is amazing. Or maybe it's just because they are located in prominent areas.

Here's an example - http://www.simonbrien.com/new-homes/the-vue-bt52-8da-1093

I didn't realise that 'the port' was a haven for lottery winners.

Maybe they are expecting The Open golfers might settle down in 'the port'. It is advertised as the Major Golf Capital of the World.

The retiree boomers have some sort of fetish for portsstewart/rush. I never understood it. The dream seems to be taking the pension lump sum and the savings and buying in one of these places. Personally I think both places are rather grotty. I'd rather buy somehere they have actual seasons. Say the South of France or Northern Spain. It's typical small minded NI. Can't see past the A26. 

There were probably sizable redundancies from Ballymena in the past few years pumped into the place. 

[Belfast Boy]

1 hour ago, JoeDavola said:

I'm assuming that kinda money could also get you an apartment on a beach in a part of the world where it's actually sunny for most of the year.

... I'm certain there are.

I wonder if 3 of those apartments at The Vue are really sale agreed or are the estate agents up to their old tricks.

Here are some more -

30 Portrush - http://www.currangate.com/ (the shell has been sitting for 10 years)

22 Portstewart - http://www.themontagu.com/

There will be another 24 in 3 blocks at the crescent Portstewart - called the Atlantic Point apartments. (I think 2 blocks have been built.)

There are another 6 beside the 6 in The Vue.

So I make that 88 new apartments at 'the port'.

... and there are still some from the 2007 building boom that never sold!

It just seems strange that these are all being built at the same time.

[Belfast Boy]

30 minutes ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

Personally I think both places are rather grotty.

There is a lot of derelict property in both towns. I noticed that Newcastle Co. Down doesn't seem to have much derelict property. Though the beach at Newcastle is rubbish. The beaches at 'the port' are excellent. Even if the weather is rubbish.

[JoeDavola]

15 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

It's typical small minded NI. Can't see past the A26.

That's a really interesting point - having traveled a wee bit I don't get why so many people from NI pump fortunes into living in fairly unremarkable parts of NI.

I was discussing the Portrush thing with someone the other day and they thought the half million quid flats were justified because "it's really nice up there".....really!?

A boomer with half that money sitting in the bank could use it to rent apartments all over the world as they saw fit. Seems a better thing to spend it on that Portrush.

[Belfast Boy]

5 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

 "it's really nice up there".....really!?

It is a nice place to be - if you get good weather. Though it helps if you like beaches and restaurants. I hear it is also good for Golf.

On the down side - when there is a sunny summer weekend, you have to accept crowds and long queues. And because of that, I'm not sure I would want to live there.

I have travelled a bit too. There are many nicer places with much better weather (where I usually get eaten by bugs). But 'the port' is a relatively short drive for most.

[Belfast Boy]

We went up to 'the port' for a drive/walk. I had a good look at the Portrush East Strand apartments. The Vue is actually 11 and The Sandy Bay is 9 apartments.

So 50 in Portrush and there will be 46 in Portstewart = 96 new apartments in total. It seems a lot.

There must be a reason that these are all being built at the same time.

[stingray192]

I own a property at the ‘port’,  I would agree some of the property up this direction is expensive, especially anything with a decent view, however a lot of the property is finished to a very high standard, most people I know who have property up here instead of somewhere warm and sunny is purely due to time, for the same money you can buy quite a decent property abroad, however when I looked at Spain I realised I would have to organise my holidays in advance and would probably use it no more than 3/4 times a year, in portrush we use our home most weekends, I can leave work on a Friday and be in portrush for the weekend in just over an hour, there is plenty of bars and restaurants for nightlife, if I owned abroad I couldn’t decide on a Friday afternoon to visit for the weekend, there is a lot of property for sale at the moment but there is a fair amount of sales as well

[BelfastVI]

Portrush has always had a little micro property market distinct from the rest of NI. Several times I have looked at schemes up there, turned them down as I couldn't get my head around the EA proposed selling prices and continuously proved wrong.

 

[stingray192]

The market here is slightly different, especially anything with a sea view, a lot of the apartment blocks have been built and are being maintained to a fairly high standard, there are three blocks that spring to mind that must have bad management companies and these blocks are very run down, the rest are looking good, some of the cheaper apartments are also being let out as holiday lets, so get more abuse, the block I’m in is mainly owner occupied, as most of the apartments are only used at weekends, the communal areas get little abuse so look new, the vue (priced £450-£495) have eight contracts signed with only three remaining, a block of fairly small aparments in Kerr street (11 in total cant remember the name) 10 sold last year and the last one just sold for £350k , the market is still strong up here at the quality end, totally different to the rest of the province

 

[filibuster]

Apologies if I am hijacking this thread...

I ( early 30's) have been actively looking for a house ideally in South Belfast since last August. I have a large deposit- £40K+ saved, currently live in a rented house with a couple of others (£300/month) and am reasonably happy but I would like my own place that isn't an apartment. 

Whats the feeling out there generally? Anytime I enquired about a listing last year/early this year its already over the list price. Is there much movement in the market? Are the asking prices still being met? I'm a bear at minute but interested in what everyone's else position is, like Zamo's.

My Peer group cant believe I haven't pulled the trigger yet, but everyone else seems to be in debt or struggling along treading water.

[2buyornot2buy]

8 hours ago, filibuster said:

Apologies if I am hijacking this thread...

I ( early 30's) have been actively looking for a house ideally in South Belfast since last August. I have a large deposit- £40K+ saved, currently live in a rented house with a couple of others (£300/month) and am reasonably happy but I would like my own place that isn't an apartment. 

Whats the feeling out there generally? Anytime I enquired about a listing last year/early this year its already over the list price. Is there much movement in the market? Are the asking prices still being met? I'm a bear at minute but interested in what everyone's else position is, like Zamo's.

My Peer group cant believe I haven't pulled the trigger yet, but everyone else seems to be in debt or struggling along treading water.

I bought in bt9 a number of years ago. I've been trying to convince my OH to sell up and rent for a while now. Looking at the other houses around us that have sold I'd say if we got out now I'd be able to bank around 300k based on what houses are selling for and what we've spent extending and modernising. I personally don't think that's sustainable in BT9. I'm seeing standard semis listed for 300k and poor detached for 400k+. There's something wrong there and something has to give. We have healthy wages for Belfast. I imagine in the top 1% and we'd still struggle on the prices being paid now. If rates were normal...

[Belfast Boy]

12 hours ago, filibuster said:

Apologies if I am hijacking this thread...

I am the one who should apologise for hijacking this thread to discuss the North Coast apartment building boom. Even if it does remind me of our last bubble in 2006/7.

Read zamo's last post. He has given a good assessment of the current economic situation and the possible effects of brexit and interest rates.

[Thorn]

On ‎22‎/‎03‎/‎2018 at 2:17 PM, zamo said:

I've decided to put the brakes on my purchase.

Brexit has put the jitters up me.

Best case scenario 2.5% GDP drop by the Governments own estimate in NI. https://news.sky.com/story/hit-to-northern-ireland-and-north-east-england-gdp-revealed-in-new-brexit-impact-papers-leak-11240254

In the depths of the GFC the GDP decreased around this figure in the Uk and that knocked 20% off prices there.

https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/7501/economics/the-great-recession/

With the Fed increasing interest rates, the Uk is likely to follow, even at a slow pace. I read last week that a 2% interest rate rise in the UK would lead to a 20% default on already stretched mortgage owners.

I feel the market i'm looking at around the 350-450k mark is a bit overpriced and id be happy to pay asking prices -20% for some of the properties.

The home owners and agents need a bit of pain first to get realistic in expectations.

I've also been keeping an eye on the London ripple and things have been dropping with activity slowing dramatically over the last 6-12 months.

I think its best to hold off until March 2019 and see what kind of deal these idiots come up with.

+1 to everything you see here.

[zamo]

Something has been happening in the market over the last month.

Having not heard a peep from EA's for the last year after registering interest in buying in 2017, I've had phone calls from 2 agents and emails from another telling me about property they have in the area i was looking in and if I wanted to view.

The Mortgage broker I had enquired with last year also called me out of the blue on Friday to see if I had changed my mind on holding off.

Dramatic market slowdown?

Something is afoot......

[Ryzo]

Never seen this forum as quiet.

I'm looking at buying in South Belfast and think there is such a bubble at the minute, enquired about a semi detached house listed at 249k and went for nearly 290k.

Any house we've enquired about is already over asking price and there seems to be a real lack of houses coming onto the market but maybe that's specific to South Belfast. Really tempted to sell my house and rent for 6-12 months until the impact of brexit is clearer.

[JoeDavola]

2 minutes ago, Ryzo said:

Never seen this forum as quiet.

I'm looking at buying in South Belfast and think there is such a bubble at the minute, enquired about a semi detached house listed at 249k and went for nearly 290k.

Any house we've enquired about is already over asking price and there seems to be a real lack of houses coming onto the market but maybe that's specific to South Belfast. Really tempted to sell my house and rent for 6-12 months until the impact of brexit is clearer.

Bear in mind that £290K semi probably wouldn't rent for much more than say £900 a month. (someone can correct me if I'm wrong)

Assuming rateable value of £190K annual rates bill is £1450.

((900 * 12) - 1450) /  = 3.2% ROI. More like 2.5% by the time you've factored in the cost of upkeep, paying your letting agent, your insurance, ect...

When you see those ratios of buying vs renting costs, it suggest to me a very flawed market.

[2buyornot2buy]

2 hours ago, Ryzo said:

Never seen this forum as quiet.

I'm looking at buying in South Belfast and think there is such a bubble at the minute, enquired about a semi detached house listed at 249k and went for nearly 290k.

Any house we've enquired about is already over asking price and there seems to be a real lack of houses coming onto the market but maybe that's specific to South Belfast. Really tempted to sell my house and rent for 6-12 months until the impact of brexit is clearer.

Where abouts was this if you don' mind me asking?

I was actually thinking asking prices had cooled a little in South Belfast. If what you say is happening with the whole area it looks like asking prices are down but sold prices are up. 

I'm with you on the selling up. It reminds me of the bubble. 

 

 

[Ryzo]

2 minutes ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

Where abouts was this if you don' mind me asking?

I was actually thinking asking prices had cooled a little in South Belfast. If what you say is happening with the whole area it looks like asking prices are down but sold prices are up. 

I'm with you on the selling up. It reminds me of the bubble. 

 

 

Ormonde, Finaghy - To be fair it's a 5 bedroom house but even still. Yeah that's my interpretation of it,  quite depressing really but I think parts of South Belfast have their own mini market and seem to retain their value.

[JoeDavola]

26 minutes ago, Ryzo said:

Ormonde, Finaghy - To be fair it's a 5 bedroom house but even still. Yeah that's my interpretation of it,  quite depressing really but I think parts of South Belfast have their own mini market and seem to retain their value.

300 grand for a semi in Finaghy = bubble prices IMHO. I'd assumed you were talking BT9 Stranmillis/Malone.

[Ryzo]

1 hour ago, JoeDavola said:

300 grand for a semi in Finaghy = bubble prices IMHO. I'd assumed you were talking BT9 Stranmillis/Malone.

Appears that way. Seems the norm in Stranmillis for 250k for 3 bedroom semis - the price of location. I bought 4 years ago and I'm glad I did but not sure now is a good time to buy at all.

[JoeDavola]

25 minutes ago, Ryzo said:

Appears that way. Seems the norm in Stranmillis for 250k for 3 bedroom semis - the price of location. I bought 4 years ago and I'm glad I did but not sure now is a good time to buy at all.

I've been renting the same flat for 8 years. When I started renting it 8 years ago, the rent was £550 a month. Eight years later the rent is...£575. Compare that static rent (actually, falling rent when inflation is taken into account) to the wild swings in prices over those 8 years.