apom Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 I am in Devon. Properties are not selling Prices are dropping. New builds giving massive incentives and lowering prices. Ok, we expect the "average selling price" to have a little spin and all of the arguments for and against that.. Are some of the new "bears" not bears..?? Only the "prices will stop going up soon, I know it" comments amongst some are getting common... I see only what is going on around me.. and it is the crash that we have been waiting for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
29929BlackTuesday Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 Quite right - I think HPC.co.uk has been taken offline and is now a NULab clone with subtle spin to fool us. Yes I agree - prices are coming down and it is good. That's all there is to it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paradox Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 Apom, here in London the market might have firmed a bit. However I have been looking at places outside London. No doubt about it - they are coming down! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smell the Fear Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 What Is Happening Here?, Only all I see are dropping prices. That'll be the crash, then! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pagaman Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 As a FTB, I'm regiestered with a few estate agents. One rang me up today, another 10K off one 2 bed flat So far all the property I've looked at, have had their prices dropped. Its crashing! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redwing Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 Redwing's Second Law of Averages: If the average rise is 0% then roughly have the regions will see rises and the other half falls. Most commentators seem to be predicting 0-3% this year. So there's about an evens chance prices will fall in your region. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 I am in Devon. Properties are not selling Prices are dropping. New builds giving massive incentives and lowering prices. Ok, we expect the "average selling price" to have a little spin and all of the arguments for and against that.. Are some of the new "bears" not bears..?? Only the "prices will stop going up soon, I know it" comments amongst some are getting common... I see only what is going on around me.. and it is the crash that we have been waiting for. Here is what is happening in Devon: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/devon/4617622.stm 4.1% down in just one month--official figures! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrashBear Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 I know people who held the view that there would be no crash saying "the bubble has burst" sounds like a change of view to me! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjw Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 Here is what is happening in Devon: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/devon/4617622.stm 4.1% down in just one month--official figures! When will this happen oop north? Soon I hope! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Without_a_Paddle Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 I was so excited by this news of falling prices that I had to read the rightmove report for myself!!! Here are the first few lines of the January report... House prices up £2,048 in a week! January December Average Property Asking Price £196,319 £196,181 % Change in Month +0.1% -0.8% % Change in Past Year +3.6% +3.4% Monthly Index (Jan 2002=100) 159.7 159.6 • Average asking prices jump by £2,048 (0.9%) in the first week of 2006 – the largest weekly rise since May 2004 • Demand from the lower end of the market helps push asking prices for flats up £1,543 in the month and terraces up £1,532 • Marked regional variations as recovery concentrated in London and the South-East with monthly increases of 1.3% • Recovering consumer confidence reflected in housing market as internet property searches jump by 94% on the Rightmove website Rightmove measured 93,004 asking prices - over half the UK market. The properties were put on sale by estate agents from 4th December to 7th January 2006 and advertised on Rightmove.co.uk. January Edition Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMupNorth Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 Me thinks apom is stood on his head and 'thinks' prices are falling, when in reality we all know they are going up again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paradox Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 I have been browsing the web in Ely, in Cambridge, and in the South West Definitely dropping there. HOWEVER my lovely home county of Yorkshire has priced me out. I agree with Imupnorth that prices up there have gone nuts and more or less stayed nuts - so far. Come down south m8 - its cheaper down here !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apom Posted January 23, 2006 Author Share Posted January 23, 2006 Okay.. apom's friend paid £150,000 for a two bed flat.. a year before these same flats phase oen were sold for £170,000 three months ago apom walked into the phase two sales office. £150,000.. but £10,000 discounts.. and I managed to get another £10,000 of in conversation.. I don't much care what the average property sells for.. that property changes.. but.. I watch the market round me.. and whatever way you sell it.. Half of the indices are saying prices are falling.. the other half rising.. the lack of perception toward what average house price means is shocking.. well that flat I talked about. It went up from £170,000 to £130,000 and that was pre sipps.. I am not stood on my head.. I am stood in the sales office being offered real deals.. by real people. in the real world.. statistics are fodder for the idiots.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elizabeth Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 I was so excited by this news of falling prices that I had to read the rightmove report for myself!!! Here are the first few lines of the January report... House prices up £2,048 in a week! January December Average Property Asking Price £196,319 £196,181 % Change in Month +0.1% -0.8% % Change in Past Year +3.6% +3.4% Monthly Index (Jan 2002=100) 159.7 159.6 Ummm. 196,181 - 196,319 = 138 quid. Hardly statistically significant. I think this might be a bit of spin. • Average asking prices jump by £2,048 (0.9%) in the first week of 2006 – the largest weekly rise since May 2004 Ahh. Those new years resolutions and new age postitive visualisation mantras. "I will ask what I want for my house." • Demand from the lower end of the market helps push asking prices for flats up £1,543 in the month and terraces up £1,532 And that is why I am going to hold out longer and get me a HOUSE. Because the less frugal and patient will all jump in and buy 2 bed flats in a falling market holding prices up in that crappy sector since the last 6 years has crushed their imagination that they could ever afford a property with earth beneath it. "I will have a house not a flat". while the prices of houses fall behind them. • Marked regional variations as recovery concentrated in London and the South-East with monthly increases of 1.3% History waits for no man (not even the men in grey behind rightmove)... • Recovering consumer confidence reflected in housing market as internet property searches jump by 94% on the Rightmove website ...And short-term bits and bobs are exactly that. Inconsequential trivia, and misinformation and hollow hope and expectation management for the masses. Quite right - I think HPC.co.uk has been taken offline and is now a NULab clone with subtle spin to fool us. Not sure why you think this. I was convinced 3 weeks ago it had become the internet home of the Torys at play, with both warranted and unwarranted attacks on the public sector a theme in every second post. Thought about not bothering anymore but then I remembered that old union matra "if you don't fight you lose". Then a week ago I wonder why a woman who runs with the wolves should decend to running with the baying dogs of the extreme racist right. TMT whose opinions on feminism are well noted by me (and they're not complimentary), saved me from turning away in disgust by putting up a superb post yesterday. The site changes from day to day based on individuals with strong opinions on everything and anything, and that is why it works. You don't have to agree, but if you don't, try to make sense, don't expect that if people disagree they won't come right back at you, and if you can't make sense at least try to be funny! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apom Posted January 23, 2006 Author Share Posted January 23, 2006 The average house price in Devon is over £200,000 the average wage is less then £20,000 I am sure it is perfectly stable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Without_a_Paddle Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 (edited) Okay.. apom's friend paid £150,000 for a two bed flat.. a year before these same flats phase oen were sold for £170,000 three months ago apom walked into the phase two sales office. £150,000.. but £10,000 discounts.. and I managed to get another £10,000 of in conversation.. I don't much care what the average property sells for.. that property changes.. but.. I watch the market round me.. and whatever way you sell it.. Half of the indices are saying prices are falling.. the other half rising.. the lack of perception toward what average house price means is shocking.. well that flat I talked about. It went up from £170,000 to £130,000 and that was pre sipps.. I am not stood on my head.. I am stood in the sales office being offered real deals.. by real people. in the real world.. statistics are fodder for the idiots.. Apom you have been harping on about these £170k falling to £130k flats for ages now. SHOW ME THE EVIDENCE THAT PRICES HAVE FALLEN BY 25% IN DEVON SINCE 2004. If you look at the LR data for Devon you will see that prices have gone UP not down. Your whole world seems to evolve around price data on some tacky flats built in your local area. Look at the bigger picture apom. Bless you... Edited January 23, 2006 by Without_a_Paddle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North London Rent Girl Posted January 24, 2006 Share Posted January 24, 2006 Apom, here in London the market might have firmed a bit. However I have been looking at places outside London. No doubt about it - they are coming down! Market in london 'might have firmed' - what kind of speak is that? I see a thickening forest of for sale signs, often coupled with to let signs. It is happening but nobody out there's talking about it - it's freaking me out. People are quicker with their 'never going to happen's than ever. It's like the Stepford Homeowners out there - and they're not even all homeowners! It's like a mass brainwashing. I don't know a single other house-market bear except my mum. Anyone else feel like in this regard they're in a 1970s paranoia film? Invasion of the Body Snatchers - they do that open-mouthed screeching if you say prices will fall. Shudder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zorn Posted January 24, 2006 Share Posted January 24, 2006 Market in london 'might have firmed' - what kind of speak is that? I see a thickening forest of for sale signs, often coupled with to let signs. It is happening but nobody out there's talking about it - it's freaking me out. People are quicker with their 'never going to happen's than ever. It's like the Stepford Homeowners out there - and they're not even all homeowners! It's like a mass brainwashing. I don't know a single other house-market bear except my mum. Anyone else feel like in this regard they're in a 1970s paranoia film? Invasion of the Body Snatchers - they do that open-mouthed screeching if you say prices will fall. Shudder. My brother put his flat in north London on the market last weekend, at what I would call a pretty silly price -- £420K for a three-bed ex-council flat with tiny rooms (it is ground floor with a garden, though). He's had fifteen viewings in the first week, and while I'm fully aware that a viewing is not a sale, it indicates some life in the market. Okay.. apom's friend paid £150,000 for a two bed flat.. a year before these same flats phase oen were sold for £170,000 Can you point us at a Nethouseprices page showing some of these flats being sold for £170K? Asking for £170K is not the same as actually selling for £170K. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apom Posted January 24, 2006 Author Share Posted January 24, 2006 My brother put his flat in north London on the market last weekend, at what I would call a pretty silly price -- £420K for a three-bed ex-council flat with tiny rooms (it is ground floor with a garden, though). He's had fifteen viewings in the first week, and while I'm fully aware that a viewing is not a sale, it indicates some life in the market. Can you point us at a Nethouseprices page showing some of these flats being sold for £170K? Asking for £170K is not the same as actually selling for £170K. Can't find any of them in nethouse prices... Sorry.. No idea of the post code. and its not browsing to the name anyway I do know people who live in the area and I am sick an tired of arguing.. so tired.. I will find the post code, trust me.. just google is letting me down.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BubblesBurst Posted January 24, 2006 Share Posted January 24, 2006 As a FTB, I'm regiestered with a few estate agents. One rang me up today, another 10K off one 2 bed flat So far all the property I've looked at, have had their prices dropped. Its crashing! On a local price scale, which is all that should really matter to people. I have just noticed one of the many old stale properties (multiple agent marketing) that I have been watching, has finally dropped in price ! This has been on since June 2003 for £395, (empty property) constantly advertised in that time and has just dropped this week to £335. Someone's woken up to reality at last Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apom Posted January 24, 2006 Author Share Posted January 24, 2006 (edited) On a local price scale, which is all that should really matter to people. I have just noticed one of the many old stale properties (multiple agent marketing) that I have been watching, has finally dropped in price ! This has been on since June 2003 for £395, (empty property) constantly advertised in that time and has just dropped this week to £335. Someone's woken up to reality at last Same where I am.. My parent estate.. nice area.. £250,000 that was achieved by one property there way over a year ago.. since then none of the others have sold.. six months before the £250,000 another sold for £180,000.. there are 150 in the estate. several are on the market, some have been put on and then removed.. I guess another may sell for that tomorrow..that might make the price worth that.. but its not exactly a sale you can rely on.. I wouldn't mind saying my property is worth £250,000 and I can sell it tomorrow.. I would feel a little less smug saying "My property is worth £250,000 but it looks unlikely that I could expect someone to actually appear and pay it.. Devon might be different to other areas.. I don't see those.. but I see what people earn.. and not enough can afford to buy. Edited January 24, 2006 by apom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paradox Posted January 24, 2006 Share Posted January 24, 2006 Market in london 'might have firmed' - what kind of speak is that? Hi North London Rent Girl, OK, apologies for the use of Estate Agentese but I have been looking around for a while now. It seemed to me that in the autumn of last year asking prices in London were actually dropping. Now they seem to have gone up again. OK I know they are asking prices, but they have definitely nudged up around inner North London. However some of the SE towns - Ely, Cambridge etc there seem to be some big reductions at a the moment. All IMHO Best wishes Paradox ps good choice of name? Chelsea fan? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayser Soze Posted January 24, 2006 Share Posted January 24, 2006 Hilarious. Read one entry - 'prices are on the way up' Boom time is here. Next entry ' No crash is under way' Don't buy now. Come on folks I'm sitting on a huge pile of cash here (STR) and I'm waiting for some clever people to give me the definitive view of which way prices are going!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paradox Posted January 24, 2006 Share Posted January 24, 2006 Very mixed signals. Very interesting indeed. You see some one bed flats for the same price as 2 and 3 bedders. For some the penny has dropped for others not. Nobody can say what will happen, and the picture is different in different parts of the UK. It is a fascinating situation. As Apom points out, places like Devon, North West Lancashire etc have quite low income levels yet their houses are priced as if they are in London. Sheffield is another example. A lot will depend on the appetite for debt and the panic effect. Any reduction in people's appetite for debt (or ability to get indebted) will bring the market down. If credit continues expanding then we could continue for a while (like in Ireland). Interesting times.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Without_a_Paddle Posted January 24, 2006 Share Posted January 24, 2006 Hilarious. Read one entry - 'prices are on the way up' Boom time is here. Next entry ' No crash is under way' Don't buy now. Come on folks I'm sitting on a huge pile of cash here (STR) and I'm waiting for some clever people to give me the definitive view of which way prices are going!!!! One thing's for sure. If your cash is in the bank then it is slowly eroding away in value. The interest after tax will be 'gone' on rent and inflation will do the rest... Does anyone know the 'true' inflation figure? I reckon it is climbing. Best get your prayer mats out STRs... pray for that crash (but also pray for low inflation in the meantime) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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