Digsby Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Land Registry @LandRegGov 20s20 seconds ago Our June #HPI shows a monthly increase in England and Wales of 1.1%. Full HPI out 9.30am on 28 July I was expecting a positive change last month, but that is a good 0.5% more than I thought. Ho hum, it WILL be retraced this month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted July 16, 2015 Author Share Posted July 16, 2015 Is it reasonable to argue that in the FSR the Bank are underselling the extent to which the spreads between the swap rate and the rates on higher LTV fixes are contracting because of FLS, i.e. the operative market rate for the funding is not the swap rate because the FLS counterparty swap allows them to borrow with gilts as collateral, thus obtaining cheaper rates on the funding side.The private banks can then offer lower rates to customers and still make good money. Hence while competition between lenders matters, it is certainly not the whole story. FLS matters too. Presumably it's reasonable to anticipate rates of fixes tracking away from swap rates as FLS unwinds? I wouldn't like to guess how much FLS is still influencing mortgage rates. On the face of it £57bn is a fairly small amount compared the size of the lenders' loan books, and RBS and HSBC haven't even got any drawings outstanding (HSBC didn't even participate IIRC). What seemed to happen initially with FLS is that it changed lenders' marginal funding costs and this had a knock-on effect throughout the wholesale market, especially as it coincided with a lessening in fears over Greece and the solvency of European banks at the time. In due course these lower wholesale rates worked their way into retail deposit rates as lenders weren't so reliant on them. I imagine that as FLS slowly unwinds over the next few years that it will inevitably put upward pressure on rates, but I don't know how material this will be compared to any changes in Bank Rate, gilt yields etc. Bank funding costs are gradually rising - unsurprising as swap rates and gilt yields have been on the up since the beginning of the year - and those funding costs would rise even faster if savers were more proactive in seeking better returns. The chart below is from the Q2 Credit Conditions Review. The blue bars show the responses to the Bank Liabilities Survey each quarter and the red diamond shows lenders' expectations for Q3 2015. The trend is obvious. Despite this, mortgage rates continue to fall, particularly on higher LTVs (Nationwide cut mortgage rates yesterday for example, and TSB cut today). This suggests that lenders are currently prepared to take a hit on margin in order to maintain or increase lending volumes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bland Unsight Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 I wouldn't like to guess how much FLS is still influencing mortgage rates. ... [snip] Thank you, FT. I'm going to pull my finger our and shift some cash. This news will not move the market, but it's always a good time to Fight The Power with anything that comes to hand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted July 20, 2015 Author Share Posted July 20, 2015 (edited) Monday, 20 July 2015 HM Treasury: Whole of Government Accounts, 2013-14 UK Whole of Government assets increased by £39.8bn in 2013-14, but liabilities increased by £263.7bn. Two items primarily drove the increase in liabilities - a £130bn increase in the public sector pension liability and a £100bn increase in borrowing to fund the fiscal deficit. --------------- UK Financial Investments Ltd: Annual Report and Accounts 2014/15 UKFI was created in November 2008 as part of the UK’s response to the financial crisis. It is responsible for managing the Government’s shareholdings in The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc (RBS) and Lloyds Banking Group plc (Lloyds).UKFI is also responsible for managing the Government’s 100 per cent shareholding in and loans to UK Asset Resolution Ltd (UKAR). UKAR was formed in October 2010 to integrate the activities of NRAM (previously known as Northern Rock (Asset Management) plc) and Bradford & Bingley plc. Edited July 20, 2015 by FreeTrader Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted July 21, 2015 Author Share Posted July 21, 2015 Tuesday, 21 July 2015HMRC: UK Property Transactions, June 2015 There was a significant increase in the number of UK residential property transactions in June. Seasonally adjusted transactions (provisional at this stage) totalled 104,950, 4.7% up on May and 3.2% up on June last year.Over the past few months transactions have been down year-on-year, but June has broken this trend.The non-seasonally adjusted total of 114,780 is the second-highest monthly number since Nov 2007. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted July 24, 2015 Author Share Posted July 24, 2015 Friday, 24 July 2015 British Bankers' Association: June 2015 figures for the high street banks Seasonally adjusted BBA mortgage approvals for house purchase totalled 44,488 in June 2015, 3.8% higher than May and 6.3% higher than June 2014. There was a sharp increase in the average approval value for house purchase, with June's figure of £176,200 representing a new series high: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted July 29, 2015 Author Share Posted July 29, 2015 (edited) Wednesday, 29 July 2015Bank of England: Effective Interest Rates, June 2015 The average interest rate on new secured lending was still falling in June, and there was a sharp drop in the average rate on time deposits. ---------------Bank of England: Money and Credit, June 2015Seasonally adjusted mortgage approvals for house purchase totalled 66,852 in June, up 2.7% on May and 1.5% on June 2014. This was basically in line with market expectations, but not as high as the BBA figures released a few days ago suggested they might be (see previous post). Edited July 29, 2015 by FreeTrader Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frederico Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 The oracle Take a look at @asentance's Tweet: https://twitter.com/asentance/status/626310656283815936?s=09 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gigantic Purple Slug Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 Wednesday, 29 July 2015 Bank of England: Effective Interest Rates, June 2015 The average interest rate on new secured lending was still falling in June, and there was a sharp drop in the average rate on time deposits. --------------- Bank of England: Money and Credit, June 2015 Seasonally adjusted mortgage approvals for house purchase totalled 66,852 in June, up 2.7% on May and 1.5% on June 2014. This was basically in line with market expectations, but not as high as the BBA figures released a few days ago suggested they might be (see previous post). Interesting how the number of mortgage approvals seems slowly rising while the land registry recently shows quite a reduction in volume. The only conclusion I draw from this is that the volume reduction is largely due to cash buyers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted July 29, 2015 Author Share Posted July 29, 2015 Interesting how the number of mortgage approvals seems slowly rising while the land registry recently shows quite a reduction in volume. The only conclusion I draw from this is that the volume reduction is largely due to cash buyers. The problem with the Land Reg volume numbers is that they're not timely and they're also incomplete (some transactions have yet to be registered and certain residential sales are excluded from the figures). HMRC's statistics are far more valuable in my view. Below is the latest chart of HMRC reported transactions vs BoE approvals (the difference between the two plots is in theory cash transactions, although they may include purchases by foreigners financed with non-domestic loans). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 The problem with the Land Reg volume numbers is that they're not timely and they're also incomplete (some transactions have yet to be registered and certain residential sales are excluded from the figures). HMRC's statistics are far more valuable in my view. Below is the latest chart of HMRC reported transactions vs BoE approvals (the difference between the two plots is in theory cash transactions, although they may include purchases by foreigners financed with non-domestic loans). Do all approvals result in a transaction? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted July 29, 2015 Author Share Posted July 29, 2015 Do all approvals result in a transaction? No, but the BoE approvals stats are reported net of cancellations (where an approval isn't eventually taken up), so over time there ought to be a close relationship between approvals and actual loans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted July 30, 2015 Author Share Posted July 30, 2015 Thursday, 30 July 2015 HMRC: Inheritance Tax Statistics 2012 - 2013 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted July 31, 2015 Author Share Posted July 31, 2015 (edited) Friday, 31 July 2015ONS: Index of private housing rental prices: April to June 2015 Private rental prices paid by tenants in Great Britain rose by 2.5% in the 12 months to June 2015. Private rental prices grew by 2.5% in England, 2.1% in Scotland and 0.8% in Wales in the 12 months to June 2015. Rental prices increased in all the English regions over the year to June 2015, with rental prices increasing the most in London (3.8%). --------------- Council of Mortgage Lenders: Five things you need to know about mortgage rates Also from the CML: Jargon buster: how do swaps work? Jargon buster: what's the yield curve? --------------- NHBC: New home registrations H1 2015 London is the only region with lower registrations than H1 last year. Edited July 31, 2015 by FreeTrader Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bland Unsight Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 (edited) The CML going to all that trouble to explain that mortgage rates are not anchored to the Bank of England policy rate. That's eye-catching. Presumably they are doing that for no reason whatsoever. I seem to recall reading John Charcol suggesting that when there is lots of demand for secured lending banks raise the rates on the products they offer in order to discourage some people for applying for loans, and thus manage the demand. These falling fixed rates and talk of a mortgage rate war are then consistent with these comments in the Bank's Credit Condition Survey. Lenders reported that demand for secured lending for house purchase fell significantly in Q1, for the third successive quarter (Chart 2). The fall in demand was significant in prime lending, where the net percentage balance was the lowest since 2008 Q3. Some lenders attributed the reduction in secured lending demand over recent quarters to a combination of changes in regulatory policy; concerns about housing affordability; and uncertainty about the outlook for the housing market Source: BoE Credit Conditions Survey. Now, if the banks took steps to choke off even what little demand for secured lending was present, wouldn't that be like throwing in the towel? Also, there was something that happened in Q3 2008, but I can't for the life of me remember what it was... I forget the details but it was something that needed to happen, but there had to be a massive policy response to forestall it. I'm sure it'll come back to me... Edited July 31, 2015 by bland unsight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bland Unsight Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 Scouse mice bash? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neverwhere Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 The CML going to all that trouble to explain that mortgage rates are not anchored to the Bank of England policy rate. That's eye-catching. Presumably they are doing that for no reason whatsoever.. . .Also, there was something that happened in Q3 2008, but I can't for the life of me remember what it was... I forget the details but it was something that needed to happen, but there had to be a massive policy response to forestall it. I'm sure it'll come back to me... Scouse mice bash? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted August 5, 2015 Author Share Posted August 5, 2015 Wednesday, 5 August 2015 ONS: Housing Summary Measures Analysis From the intro: This report presents analysis of the 15 Housing Summary Measures which form part of the new ONS Housing Statistics Portal, which is the platform for a range of official statistics and analysis on housing. New analysis of housing statistics will be added to the Portal over time, using the latest available data. The Housing Summary Measures provide a broad overview of the availability and affordability of privately owned and social housing for local authorities in England and Wales, and also looks at the affordability of private rented housing. The ONS Housing Statistics Portal: http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/HTMLDocs/IA9/atlas.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted August 6, 2015 Author Share Posted August 6, 2015 Thursday, 6 August 2015DCLG: Land Use Change Statistics 2013-14In 2013-14:• 60 per cent of new residential addresses, including conversions to residential use, were created on previously developed land • The average density of residential addresses surrounding a newly created residential address was 32 addresses per hectare. Average density was 37 addresses per hectare on previously developed land, and 26 addresses per hectare on non-previously developed land. • 3 per cent of new residential addresses were created within the Green Belt and 8 per cent of land changing to residential use was within the designated Green Belt. • 7 per cent of new residential addresses were created within areas of high flood risk. • 43 per cent of land changing to a developed use was previously-developed. --------------- ONS: Internet Access – Households and Individuals 2015 • The internet was accessed every day, or almost every day, by 78% of adults (39.3 million) in Great Britain in 2015, compared with 35% (16.2 million) in 2006, when directly comparable records began. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneyscam Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Keep them coming FT, it's what keeps me reading this forum, thank you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted August 6, 2015 Author Share Posted August 6, 2015 Keep them coming FT, it's what keeps me reading this forum, thank you. Thanks moneyscam. Don't hear from you much these days. Always valued your contributions from the front line. Maybe if the bond markets ever blow up... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 Monday, 10 August 2015 UK Parliament: Members of Parliament - Registered Property Interests July 2015 Not a statistical release, but I thought this may be of interest. The table below lists declarations in the latest Register of Members' Financial Interests under Category 6, 'Land and property'.In this category MPs must register any land or property in the UK and elsewhere which:1) has a value of more than £100,000; or forms part of a total property portfolio whose value exceeds £100,000; and/or2) alone or together with other properties owned by the Member, provides rental income of more than £10,000 in a calendar year.Members should not register any land or property which is used wholly for their own personal residential purposes, or those of their spouse, partner or dependent children.The category field in the table denotes the interest declared: 0 = classification omitted1 = property value over £100,0002 = rental income over £10,000 p.a.3 = property value over £100,000 AND rental income over £10,000 p.a. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybong Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Members should not register any land or property which is used wholly for their own personal residential purposes, or those of their spouse, partner or dependent children. So apart from the other apparent fiddles they could quite easily have interests in a few other bits of land or property that they legitimately don't have to register. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted August 11, 2015 Author Share Posted August 11, 2015 (edited) Tuesday, 11 August 2015 Council of Mortgage Lenders: Mortgage Lending June 2015 and Q2 2015 The CML is reporting strong owner-occupier mortgage numbers for June 2015 in comparison to May, but year-on-year there was actually a slight fall in the volume of house purchase loans. OO remortgaging activity was particularly high in June. BTL continued to show strong activity in June, with the number of loans by volume up 24% on the previous year and up 40% by value. --------------- Bank of England: Quoted Household Interest Rates July 2015 The 2-year 75% LTV fixed mortgage rate ticked up slightly in July: 95% LTV fixed mortgage rates are still falling: Instant access deposit rates remain at rock bottom levels, but 1-year and 2-year fixed term rates moved upwards slightly. The 2-year fixed rate is now 17 bps above May's low. Edited August 11, 2015 by FreeTrader Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie_George Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Monday, 10 August 2015 UK Parliament: Members of Parliament - Registered Property Interests July 2015 Not a statistical release, but I thought this may be of interest. The table below lists declarations in the latest Register of Members' Financial Interests under Category 6, 'Land and property'. This is excellent. Thank you. I wonder.... is there a way we could find out the addresses of these properties? If so, we could monitor if they are sold. Because remember, what what they do, not what they say. If there was a concerted sell-off, then we'd know the time has come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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