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Quite often I read a statistics release that I think may interest forum members here but it doesn't always warrant a new thread, so unless there's an active thread on the main board which is relevant to the topic I'll just leave it.

I thought it might be an idea to start a dedicated thread for such situations so that I (and others) can just dump the links or post an updated chart.

Today for example the Bank of England released its April 2015 Trends in Lending report, and this issue gives extra focus to developments in the BTL loans market.

Also the DCLG has released Dwelling Stock Estimates: 2014, England today.

According to this report there were an estimated 23.4 million dwellings in England as at 31 March 2014, an increase of 137,000 dwellings (0.59%) on the previous year. Between March 2013 and March 2014, the private rented stock in England increased by 123,000 dwellings and the owner occupied stock increased by 24,000 dwellings. The social and affordable rented stock decreased by 1,000 dwellings and the other public sector stock decreased by 9,000 dwellings.

Dedicated HPC threads:

Bank Of England Trends In Lending BTL Special Edition (bland unsight)

Edited by FreeTrader

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Friday, 24 April 2015

ONS: Index of private housing rental prices: January to March 2015

The Index of Private Housing Rental Prices (IPHRP) tracks the prices paid for renting property from private landlords in Great Britain.

IPHRP_Mar15.gif

Dedicated HPC thread:

Tenants See 2.1% Annual Rise In Rent, Says Ons (interestrateripoff)

Edited by FreeTrader

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Tuesday, 28 April 2015

ONS: Gross domestic product, preliminary estimate: January to March 2015

GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.3% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015 compared with growth of 0.6% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2014. Market expectation was 0.5%.

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British Bankers' Association (BBA): March 2015 figures for the high street banks

BBA seasonally adjusted mortgage approvals for house purchase totalled 38,751 in March, 3.5% up on February but 13.8% down on March 2014. This was above market expectations (37,850).

BBAapprovals_0315.gif

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Registers of Scotland: Quarterly House Price Report, January to March 2015

ScotlandHP_Q1_2015.gif

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Dedicated threads:

Gdp Growth Much Weaker Than Expected In Q1 (FreeTrader)

Edited by FreeTrader

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Tuesday, 28 April 2015

ONS: Gross domestic product, preliminary estimate: January to March 2015

GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.3% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015 compared with growth of 0.6% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2014. Market expectation was 0.5%.

Output increased in services by 0.5% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015. The other 3 main industrial groupings within the economy decreased, with construction falling by 1.6%, production by 0.1% and agriculture by 0.2%.

Nice bit of balancing there George. So..third of a trillion QE, 90 Billion a year borrowed, and emergency interest rates for ever....and that's it??

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Tuesday, 28 April 2015

ONS: Gross domestic product, preliminary estimate: January to March 2015

GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.3% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015 compared with growth of 0.6% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2014. Market expectation was 0.5%.

Worthy of a thread of it's own IMO.

Last four quarters' growth has been roughly 0.9%, 0.7%, 0.5%, 0.3%...

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Just a bump to let everyone know that I'll only be putting up a single post on any particular day to avoid spamming the main board, so further statistics releases may be added later.

Today for example in addition to the ONS GDP link I've added links to the March BBA stats and also Q1 2015 house price stats from Registers of Scotland.

Edit: spelling

Edited by FreeTrader

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Worthy of a thread of it's own IMO.

Last four quarters' growth has been roughly 0.9%, 0.7%, 0.5%, 0.3%...

It would be interesting to see the mortgage lending value for the four quarters ,from a far GDP seems to mirror the London house price bubble

Edited by long time lurking

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Wednesday, 29th April 2015

Welsh Government: Dwelling Stock Estimates for Wales, 2013-14

Wales_dwelling_stock_2014.gif

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Thursday, 30 April 2015

National Records of Scotland: Mid-year population estimates for Scotland: mid 2014

The estimated population of Scotland on 30 June 2014 was 5,347,600, the highest ever and an increase of 19,900 from the previous year.

Scotland_Pop_2014.gif

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DCLG: Help to Buy (Equity Loan scheme): Data to 31 March 2015

In the first two years (to March 2015), 47,018 properties were bought with the support of the Help to Buy: equity loan scheme. 38,703 of these sales (82%) were to first-time buyers. The average purchase price was £212,932.

HTB_equity_0315a.gif

HTB_equity_0315b.gif

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Friday, 1 May 2015

Markit / CIPS: UK Manufacturing PMI

The seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS Purchasing Manager’s Index® (PMI®) posted 51.9 in April, a seven-month low and below the revised March reading of 54.0 (originally 54.4). This is well below market expectations (54.6).

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Bank of England: Effective interest rates - March 2015

EffectiveRates0315.gif

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Bank of England: Money and Credit - March 2015

Seasonally adjusted mortgage approvals for house purchase totalled 61,341 in March, down 0.3% on February and down 8.5% on March 2014. This was below market expectations (63K).

MortApprovals0315.gif

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Dedicated HPC threads:

Guardian: "the Economy Has Come Off Its Sugar-Rush High" (Assume The Opposite)

Uk Consumer Credit Booms In March, Business Lending Jumps Too (interestrateripoff)

Edited by FreeTrader

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Wednesday, 6 May 2015

DECC: Weekly Road Fuel Prices

The average price of diesel has hit 120p for the first time this year after reaching a low of 113.6p in February.

[Road fuel prices are normally updated on Tuesday each week, but appear a day later after a bank holiday. I'll only link to this one occasionally.]

WeeklyFuelPrices060515.gif

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Dept. for Business, Innovation & Skills (BIS): Building Materials and Components Statistics, April 2015

The ‘All Work’ Construction Material Price Index for March 2015 decreased by 0.2% compared to the previous month, and was down 1.5% compared to March 2014.

ConstructionPrices0415.gif

Edited by FreeTrader

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Tuesday, 12 May 2015

Bank of England: Quoted Household Interest Rates, April 2015

Quoted rates are weighted average rates for a range of products offered to households. The headline rates advertised by a sample of banks and building societies are collected by the Bank of England, and weighted together using the monthly balances or new business amounts which are reported to the Bank in statistical returns.

Fixed 2-yr and 5-yr 75% LTV mortgage rates have hit new all-time lows:

MortRates0415a.gif

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There were also significant drops in the 2-yr 90% and 95% LTV series:

MortRates0415b.gif

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Meanwhile deposit rates remain at or near all-time lows:

DepositRates0415.gif

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Shaun Richards has written a good piece to day on the impact of QE and that last graph is quite instructive

https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2015/05/12/qe/

'Actually the Bank of England ended up doing more QE than analysed above. If we put aside the troubling issue that why was more needed if it was doing so well? Then we can proceed with the Bank of England view that something of the order of a 3.5% boost to GDP had been provided. Triple gins on the veranda all round!

Of course reality was not quite so convenient as the UK economy flat-lined around then which is odd considering the triumphant boost it had apparently provided! My argument is that the effect on savers and final salary pension funds sucked a lot of the boost out of the system.'

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Shaun Richards has written a good piece to day on the impact of QE and that last graph is quite instructive

https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2015/05/12/qe/

'Actually the Bank of England ended up doing more QE than analysed above. If we put aside the troubling issue that why was more needed if it was doing so well? Then we can proceed with the Bank of England view that something of the order of a 3.5% boost to GDP had been provided. Triple gins on the veranda all round!

Of course reality was not quite so convenient as the UK economy flat-lined around then which is odd considering the triumphant boost it had apparently provided! My argument is that the effect on savers and final salary pension funds sucked a lot of the boost out of the system.'

The ONS had a short discussion on household interest payments in its recent May Economic Review (page 15).

HouseholdInterestPayments.gif

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The ONS had a short discussion on household interest payments in its recent May Economic Review (page 15).

HouseholdInterestPayments.gif

Interesting paper.Fig 4 shows part time workers up 2.5% to 27%.Given population growth that's some stat.

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Fig 13 shows divergence between interest received and paid from about April 13.Is there any specific reason that could have caused that?

Edited by Sancho Panza

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Fig 13 shows divergence between interest received and paid from about April 13.Is there any specific reason that could have caused that?

Figure 13 is a bit misleading because it's showing the indexed effective rate received/paid by ALL savers and borrowers on outstanding deposits/loans. Since borrowing tends to be long and saving short, when rates are falling the average rate being received by all savers will drop more rapidly than the average rate being paid by all borrowers, even if the interest rate spread on new business is constant.

As for the timing of the decline, we can't say for sure but that was likely due to the FLS scheme. Although the first drawdowns for FLS began in Q3 2012, it took several months for rates to be materially affected (as predicted by the BoE).

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Shaun Richards has written a good piece to day on the impact of QE and that last graph is quite instructive

https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2015/05/12/qe/

'Actually the Bank of England ended up doing more QE than analysed above. If we put aside the troubling issue that why was more needed if it was doing so well? Then we can proceed with the Bank of England view that something of the order of a 3.5% boost to GDP had been provided. Triple gins on the veranda all round!

Of course reality was not quite so convenient as the UK economy flat-lined around then which is odd considering the triumphant boost it had apparently provided! My argument is that the effect on savers and final salary pension funds sucked a lot of the boost out of the system.'

Pension values collapse, private pensions + companies forced to pay more into their fund, starving investment + consumption.

Savers gets less money so spend less.

Then QE starts doing what they claim it was meant to - rising prices. Bonds fall, IR go up and, as they did not slam the door on credit, the over leveraged collapse.

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Wednesday, 13 May 2015

ONS: Labour Market Statistics, May 2015

-- The proportion of the economically active population who were unemployed (the unemployment rate) was 5.5%, lower than for October to December 2014 (5.7%) and for a year earlier (6.8%).

-- Comparing January to March 2015 with a year earlier, pay for employees in Great Britain increased by 1.9% including bonuses and by 2.2% excluding bonuses.

AWE_0515.gif

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Bank of England: Inflation Report, May 2015

Live webcast at 10.30am from this link: http://streamstudio.world-television.com/CCUIv3/frameset.aspx?ticket=117-118-15712&target=en-default-&status=preview&browser=ns-0-0-0-17-0&stream=flash-video-400

Edited by FreeTrader

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