TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 August's index has been revised down from 376.0 to 375.5 to boot- would be a 0.3% drop otherwise, for all the difference it makes. Old habits die hard, it seems. September report: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/~/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/Sept_2014.pdf Q3 2014 report: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/~/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/Q3_2014.pdf Can you clarify this, have we have 2 months of falls ( after revisions ) in a row ? I'm sure the BBc will have been right on this good news. Where have all the E.A. trolls gone btw ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurzel Of Highbridge Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Can you clarify this, have we have 2 months of falls ( after revisions ) in a row ? I'm sure the BBc will have been right on this good news. Where have all the E.A. trolls gone btw ? Where have their fundamentals of housing shortage, too many foreigners gone? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurzel Of Highbridge Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Teeheehee http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.php?p=66621957&posted=1#post66621957 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Teeheehee http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.php?p=66621957&posted=1#post66621957 Can't read that....what's have the trolls been saying. Are they telling everyone it's about supply and demand.....SUPPLY has shot up in London, Demand has shot down....maybe they can tell us what happens next ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Fergus is hoping to sell on basis of the present not-so-long-ago rise. Oops. I suspected when Fergus reared his head the market was about to collapse. I personally think If he'd been smart he'd have sold in June 2007 and if he'd been smarter he'd have sold in April 2014. I think he's a reflection on the general public's lagging opinion that the market has now recovered and it's time to sell. I think we all know here that time has gone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 (edited) I wonder how the nationwide graph will look in 6 months time. http://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/f/foxtons-group-plc-ordinary-1p https://chart.hl.co.uk/charts/chart.jsproto_large.chart?ID_SEDOL=BCKFY51&WIDTH=440&HEIGHT=180&TIME_SPAN=1Y&SUBSAMPLINGGRANULARITY=DAY&XAXISCLOSECOL=0&LINE_WIDTH=1&MOUNTAIN_COLOR1=a5b9d8&MOUNTAIN_COLOR2=c1cfe5&MOUNTAIN_COLOR3=c1cfe5&MOUNTAIN_COLOR4=ffffff&ID_NOTATION_COLOR1=25456b&NOITNAV=0 Edited September 30, 2014 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 If the market turns soon and they can blame the Tories for it the BBC will be singing 'crash' from the rooftops. Just in time for an election..... The market has turned. The headline in the run up to the election will be....tory policy ot ease pressure on house prices is working, cheaper homes for many. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Very interesting quarterly stats...London now starting to lag 0.9%, the ripple has hit the Midlands (both East and West hitting 2%) and also showing strongly in East Anglia. London looks completely f**ked now, and I guess once the ripple has burnt itself out over the rest of the country so might the regions be too. A lot of hope for homeowners will now be looking to pension Wonga day...6th April 2015. (there again I don't suppose boomers will buying if the quarterly stats turn negative). Wot, no short London, long regions, as per you-know-who? Buying at hyperinflated prices to protect their savings. Not happy enough with houses owned ouright/equity rich, in most instance. Yes, if sentiment turns along with downward market conditions... they won't be running to property with their pensions at any silly price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bankstersparadise Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Yes, if sentiment turns along with downward market conditions... they won't be running to property with their pensions at any silly price. Does it not worry anybody else that the second order impact of this is that the government cannot let sentiment turn before the pension money comes in to chase the market pre-election? I mean for the sake of their own jobs and chance or re-election. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Does it not worry anybody else that the second order impact of this is that the government cannot let sentiment turn before the pension money comes in to chase the market pre-election? I mean for the sake of their own jobs and chance or re-election. As Scotland proved...only 55% of people believe the government. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bankstersparadise Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 As Scotland proved...only 55% of people believe the government. Exactly, slightly more buyers than sellers.....that is what Osborne will be hoping to achieve!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldbug9999 Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Does it not worry anybody else that the second order impact of this is that the government cannot let sentiment turn before the pension money comes in to chase the market pre-election? I mean for the sake of their own jobs and chance or re-election. Cant see how it can any effect since its only one month before the election. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Exactly, slightly more buyers than sellers.....that is what Osborne will be hoping to achieve!! eh....the 55% are the sellers...they are the ones desperate to believe the governments house price propaganda. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Does it not worry anybody else that the second order impact of this is that the government cannot let sentiment turn before the pension money comes in to chase the market pre-election? I mean for the sake of their own jobs and chance or re-election. Good point, but they'll have some work on if that's really their commitment, for US prime real estate has begun to wobble, from my reading of things... the summer selling season was a dud and sales volume is pathetic. Treasury/BoE can't control all markets and consequences and global market participant sentiment change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeddyBear Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 (edited) London radio, LBC did not mention any drops with regards to these figures when I heard them report this morning - just that London house prices 30% up year on year in Tower Hamlets and Lewisham, how average price double rest of country. Must have borrrowed their editor from the BBC. With the money soon to be liberated from pensions, it's the companies offering annuities that are set to suffer isn't it, given that people won't be forced to buy annuities with very poor rates? Perhaps there is a chance that these companies will start putting out a lot of PR about all the problems with BTL given that BTL would be a main competition for the money? Edited September 30, 2014 by TeddyBear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bankstersparadise Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 for US prime real estate has begun to wobble, from my reading of things... the summer selling season was a dud and sales volume is pathetic. Treasury/BoE Prime US seems to be holding up OK from what I have seen. Anything below $1m USD has cracked, prices and volumes both moving negative now. Of course that shows the pain in the real economy for the "99%". Tough for a consumption led economy. UK seems to be following US with a 12 month lag so it is clear where London/UK property is heading without more intervention. (Especially with MMR and mortgage rates grinding up etc). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Does it not worry anybody else that the second order impact of this is that the government cannot let sentiment turn before the pension money comes in to chase the market pre-election? I mean for the sake of their own jobs and chance or re-election. Doesn`t worry me much, but it should be worrying the government My main worry is that UKIP will lose votes if prices start to crumble, because that blows a hole in the "mass immigration driving up prices" thing that many sheeple have been conditioned to believe. I want HPC, but I also want UKIP to shake things up around the Europe issue, if we get "bad" numbers in the run up to a GE then Balls Up and Co. will win? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 London radio, LBC did not mention any drops with regards to these figures when I heard them report this morning - just that London house prices 30% up year on year in Tower Hamlets and Lewisham, how average price double rest of country. Must have borrrowed their editor from the BBC. With the money soon to be liberated from pensions, it's the companies offering annuities that are set to suffer isn't it, given that people won't be forced to buy annuities with very poor rates? Perhaps there is a chance that these companies will start putting out a lot of PR about all the problems with BTL given that BTL would be a main competition for the money? Some Brits getting their pension money early won`t compete with the wave of global credit that was pushing up house prices in the run up to `08. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 If I read it correctly London fell abut 4.8% in last quorter. I assume that rest of England prices are still going up, however London goes down ... http://www.nationwid...x/Sept_2014.pdf UK house prices declined by 0.2% in September ... Annual house price growth in London slowed somewhat, from 25.8% in Q2 to 21% in Q3. Nevertheless , at £401,072, average prices in the capital reached a record high, 31% above their 2007 peak. In the UK as whole, prices are around 2% above their pre - crisis peak (excluding London they are less than 1% above their 2007 peak). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 (edited) If I read it correctly London fell abut 4.8% in last quorter. I assume that rest of England prices are still going up, however London goes down ... You must be mistaken, The BBc have not told me this fact. Edited September 30, 2014 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bankstersparadise Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 If I read it correctly London fell abut 4.8% in last quorter. I assume that rest of England prices are still going up, however London goes down ... http://www.nationwid...x/Sept_2014.pdf UK house prices declined by 0.2% in September ... Annual house price growth in London slowed somewhat, from 25.8% in Q2 to 21% in Q3. Nevertheless , at £401,072, average prices in the capital reached a record high, 31% above their 2007 peak. In the UK as whole, prices are around 2% above their pre - crisis peak (excluding London they are less than 1% above their 2007 peak). Unfortunately you've read it wrong. -5% in London and you won't be reading it in the nationwide monthly data first!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Unfortunately you've read it wrong. -5% in London and you won't be reading it in the nationwide monthly data first!! Well something in these aggregated numbers per whole UK is falling. And only thing falling can be London as rest of the UK is flat or growing slowly ... The other thing is that 25.8% and 21% are numbers per year. I am not sure if the base for the both numbers is same; or prices in 2013Q2 and 2013Q3 are the same. 2013Q2 prices = 100 2013Q3 prices = 103 2014Q2 prices = 100*1.258 = 125,8 2014Q3 prices = 103*1.21 = 124.63 Here we get the London price falls ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bankstersparadise Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Well something in these aggregated numbers per whole UK is falling. And only thing falling can be London as rest of the UK is flat or growing slowly ... The other thing is that 25.8% and 21% are numbers per year. I am not sure if the base for the both numbers is same; or prices in 2013Q2 and 2013Q3 are the same. 2013Q2 prices = 100 2013Q3 prices = 103 2014Q2 prices = 100*1.258 = 125,8 2014Q3 prices = 103*1.21 = 124.63 Here we get the London price falls ... I found the data and 2013Q3 base was 104.1 so it is just ahead QoQ apparently.......also it must be higher to reach the "record high", otherwise the record high would of been last quarter.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ash4781 Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 (edited) Looks like a top to me. Oops double post Edited September 30, 2014 by Ash4781 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ash4781 Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Looks like a top to me. Clearly a risk now that supply increases into the general election. The panic sellers and some delaying purchases to post election. Oh and Carney has raised expectations of a rate rise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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