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Not Going To Be A Crash, Going To Take 20 Years Drip Drip


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HOLA441

Below is the OBR projection for central government debt interest costs from the March 2014 Economic & Fiscal Outlook supplementary tables.

In comparison, the gilts held in the APF by the BoE currently earn roughly £14.4 billion in interest, and not all of this can be remitted to the Treasury for technical reasons (which I won't go into here because it's complex and would probably cause confusion rather than enlightenment).

OBR_government_debt_interest_Mar14.gif

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HOLA442

Below is the OBR projection for central government debt interest costs from the March 2014 Economic & Fiscal Outlook supplementary tables.

In comparison, the gilts held in the APF by the BoE currently earn roughly £14.4 billion in interest, and not all of this can be remitted to the Treasury for technical reasons (which I won't go into here because it's complex and would probably cause confusion rather than enlightenment).

OBR_government_debt_interest_Mar14.gif

So say they get 90% of the £14.4bn back that's £13bn back against a total cost of £52bn this year? So instead of BOGOF it's Buy Three Get One Free?

The accrued uplift on Index Linked is going up a lot 10.4 to 19.7 up 89% the BoE pension fund administrators aren't daft?

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HOLA443
The accrued uplift on Index Linked is going up a lot 10.4 to 19.7 up 89% the BoE pension fund administrators aren't daft?

Yeah, that's because the OBR believes that RPI and CPI will diverge quite significantly over the coming years. In 2018 for example they have CPI at 2% and RPI at 3.9% (and linkers are uplifted by RPI of course).

The primary reason for this divergence according to the OBR? Increased housing costs, which are excluded from CPI.

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HOLA444

Yeah, that's because the OBR believes that RPI and CPI will diverge quite significantly over the coming years. In 2018 for example they have CPI at 2% and RPI at 3.9% (and linkers are uplifted by RPI of course).

The primary reason for this divergence according to the OBR? Increased housing costs, which are excluded from CPI.

Duplicitous shits. All you hear from the tories about RPI is that it is internationally discredited.
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HOLA446

Presumably that takes into account the predicted shrinking of the deficit and glorious economic growth. Even with that it looks like a car crash.

Chote's bogus hockey stick recovery in conjunction with the BoE's oh-so-reliable fan charts...

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