jm419 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/9099117/UK-housing-market-heading-for-lost-decade-warns-Collins-Stewart.html Lost decade or slow correction? The overstatement of under building to boost the lack of supply argument. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Executive Sadman Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 (edited) I wouldnt disagree with the premise . “We believe that periods of rampant house price inflation have more often been caused by over-supply of capital rather than under-supply of housing – the northern buy-to-let boom of the last decade being a prime example,” Mr Stewart added. As we have said many times on this forum 'everyone may want a Porsche, but if no one will lend them the money, its irrelevant' Obviously we dont have thousands living on the streets so there isnt a shortage at crisis point...although we do IMO have thousands of families in substandard housing, thousands/millions in their 20s/30s either housesharing or living with parents, thousands having to commute obscene and expensive distances from more affordable dormitory towns, and the emerging problem of shanty towns in high immigrant areas - we'd have to go a long way before we ended up with Spanish/US/Irish ghost towns...i certainly think there is little risk of that. But the article isnt exactly packed with info, simply writing... . It says 11,000 “hidden” homes are built every year that are not officially recorded in construction figures but are picked up by tax authorities. Doesnt really sound convincing. Could just be an article to appeal to the NIMBY readership of the Telegraph. Edited February 22, 2012 by Executive Sadman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
@contradevian Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 (edited) The only prediction I'm making is that this journalist goes on a hill walking holiday and doesn't come back. A decade of falling prices indeed! Edited February 22, 2012 by "Steed" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrashConnoisseur Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 The only prediction I'm making is that this journalist goes on a hill walking holiday and doesn't come back. A decade of falling prices indeed! Either that or he'll fall down some invisible stairs in one of these invisible houses and become....invisible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEO72 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 As with so many things, you heard it here first (And Google "Scarcity principle" too) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinker Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Short article. This comment made me laugh Housing bubble is a giant black hole. It is now sucking in trillions of our money in various forms without any hope of that money being put to some good use ever. Nothing can escape this giant black hole. Nothing. Not even light. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darkman Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 However, the Collins Stewart research claims the UK has been building double the rate of population growth for 20 years and is in line with the main European countries. It says 11,000 “hidden” homes are built every year that are not officially recorded in construction figures but are picked up by tax authorities. Oh silly me. So apparently enough new homes have been built all along. It's just that they were.... "hidden". I give this journo an F for content, but an A+ for creativity Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
porca misèria Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 As with so many things, you heard it here first Hmmm, march was indeed probably before I posted a similar argument here ... Go on, take your bow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oki Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Needed:240,000 built:120,000 shortfall:120,000 but wait! those 11,000 secret builds make all the difference. they must be HUGE!. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PopGun Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Needed:240,000 built:120,000 shortfall:120,000 but wait! those 11,000 secret builds make all the difference. they must be HUGE!. 240k needed? By whom? the FTBs who can't get a mortgage, or those wanting to take advantage of current low interest rates and expand their BTL speculation portfolios?!? It's funny that when during the boom, the scarcity argument was routinely debunked on this site, but now gets reinforced to suit the anti planning/pro building argument. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riedquat Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 240k needed? By whom? the FTBs who can't get a mortgage, or those wanting to take advantage of current low interest rates and expand their BTL speculation portfolios?!? It's funny that when during the boom, the scarcity argument was routinely debunked on this site, but now gets reinforced to suit the anti planning/pro building argument. +1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SarahBell Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 It's like the 11,000 families on Oldham's council house waiting list (Who'll still be on it when they offer 50 'Oldham' Mortgages) They're not homeless are they. Oldham isn't wall to wall families on the streets. its 11000 people who'd like the security and cheaper rents of a council house. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ader Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 (edited) 240k houses needed? borrox Edited February 23, 2012 by ader Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeenItAllBefore Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I can see the point they are trying to make about our house building rates vs population growth though. We were building at an annual rate of 150,000 new homes plus for many years before the financial crisis. When you add all the extensions built on existing properties into the equation we must have added accommodation for a fair few million people in the last 20 years. I’d always assumed this was why we’d managed to absorb the biggest mass migration in our history without any discernible increase in rental prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ash4781 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I can see the point they are trying to make about our house building rates vs population growth though. We were building at an annual rate of 150,000 new homes plus for many years before the financial crisis. When you add all the extensions built on existing properties into the equation we must have added accommodation for a fair few million people in the last 20 years. I’d always assumed this was why we’d managed to absorb the biggest mass migration in our history without any discernible increase in rental prices. I thought they went in at a higher density (a 3 bed would become a 3 family house). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayo Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I can see the point they are trying to make about our house building rates vs population growth though. We were building at an annual rate of 150,000 new homes plus for many years before the financial crisis. When you add all the extensions built on existing properties into the equation we must have added accommodation for a fair few million people in the last 20 years. I’d always assumed this was why we’d managed to absorb the biggest mass migration in our history without any discernible increase in rental prices. From 2001-2010 the population of England grew 5.6%, while the housing stock grew 7.0% http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/statistics/pdf/2039750.pdf http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/pop-estimate/population-estimates-for-uk--england-and-wales--scotland-and-northern-ireland/mid-2010-population-estimates/index.html Looking at the Detailed RPI CPI tables My linkhttp://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/taxonomy/index.html?nscl=Retail+Prices+Index Table 30b Jan01 - Jan11 RPI-X has risen 35.9% Table 38 Jan01 - Jan11 Rent has risen 28.7% As a footnote, non shop services have risen 67% and shop services by 50%! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oki Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 240k needed? By whom? the FTBs who can't get a mortgage, or those wanting to take advantage of current low interest rates and expand their BTL speculation portfolios?!? It's funny that when during the boom, the scarcity argument was routinely debunked on this site, but now gets reinforced to suit the anti planning/pro building argument. some people don't get sarcasm then.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PopGun Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 some people don't get sarcasm then.. Whilst others are just cr4p at deploying it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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