dances with sheeple Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Difficult to say... for me, my head ruled my heart - and I didn't buy. That has had considerable consequences in my life - and it's impossible to say if these were (on balance) beneficial or detrimental to me... there's no control experiment against which to compare ultimate outcomes... so, regret would be silly. In this case there is? people said it was a ponzi scheme eight years ago, it was a ponzi scheme, so where you are now depends on how you heeded or ignored that info? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 (edited) interesting. can one compare the figure for a postcode from the 'for sale' tab on Rightmove with the one from the 'house prices' tab which shows the number of houses on the market for previous months? If so then the number for sale now is quite a bit higher than the number for May (assuming the number on the market includes STC): 718 now compared with 662 in May for one of the postcodes I'm watching. People starting to panic, but with the daft assumption that a greater fool will pay their price? The time to get out was 2007. Edited June 22, 2011 by dances with sheeple Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awaytogo Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 It explains the rush to sell near us. The last chance saloon. Yup i have seen a large increase in properties for sale- Yorks A lot from BTL land as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Pointless dancing around as we’ve clearly on different wavelengths there. Back on topic… I would say the best time to buy property or trade on the stock market for that matter, is during periods when there’s a lack of confidence as risk adverse people (majority of market) will pull out. Although I doubt many here would see it as bad, it’s the perfect time to prey on the fears of those with fewer options (ie. Desperate sellers), especially if you’re coming on board as a cash/non-chain buyer (for properties). I don’t think the property market in all areas will crash as much as many on here hope. However, it’s good if enough people in the market believe it will as it will put downward pressure on prices. As a landlord I want prices to drop as it means I can buy more stock in the future. My stock investments give much better returns but there’s a lot more work involved. The other thing to consider is quality of stock. If there are fewer prime properties on the market then the prices for those will be disproportionate to the rest of the market (seeing evidence of this already), ie. Higher. If prices drop too low then I’d be concerned the quality of stock would also decrease. Why move from a place that’s nice but not ideal when you’re in negative equity? So you want house prices (including those of your existing properties) to drop so that you can buy more houses, presumably using money you have stored safely elsewhere. Obvious question: if you expect your other investments to hold up better than property, why not sell your houses, put it all into those other investments, wait for the crash, and then buy houses? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrashConnoisseur Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 What is needed is sediment change and that is what is currently happening. Poisons hatching from the mud? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agentimmo Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 So you want house prices (including those of your existing properties) to drop so that you can buy more houses, presumably using money you have stored safely elsewhere. Obvious question: if you expect your other investments to hold up better than property, why not sell your houses, put it all into those other investments, wait for the crash, and then buy houses? Love it That's what a smart "investor" would do, n'est-ce pas. However, most of the amateur BTL crowd hold on, hoping to gain more. They are always in "for the long term" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arrgee1991 Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 However, most of the amateur BTL crowd hold on, hoping to gain more. They are always in "for the long term" +1 I always smile when I read that. I know someone who bought off-plan in some god-forsaken part of South East London back in 2007/2008. When we talked about how the apartment he had bought had already dropped 10%+ before he had to pay up, he said he was in for the long term. How we laughed! The daft thing was when he put down his deposit he was bragging about how he was going to effectively double his money by buying off plan as the properties will be up by 10% this time next year.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chronyx Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 +1 I always smile when I read that. I know someone who bought off-plan in some god-forsaken part of South East London back in 2007/2008. When we talked about how the apartment he had bought had already dropped 10%+ before he had to pay up, he said he was in for the long term. How we laughed! The daft thing was when he put down his deposit he was bragging about how he was going to effectively double his money by buying off plan as the properties will be up by 10% this time next year.... Classic doublethink Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flybait Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 So you want house prices (including those of your existing properties) to drop so that you can buy more houses, presumably using money you have stored safely elsewhere. Obvious question: if you expect your other investments to hold up better than property, why not sell your houses, put it all into those other investments, wait for the crash, and then buy houses? No one ever wants their investments to drop in value but obviously it happens. Aside from opportunity cost you only really loose when you sell any type of asset that’s gone down in value. I already own the properties I have so there’s not a lot I can do about it if they do drop, as long as it still makes more sense to keep them than not. Diversification. I don’t think anyone would argue it’s wiser to diversify interests/investments. Since I don’t have a crystal ball I can’t tell with absolute certainty what will happen with the stock or property market so I prefer to have investments in both, as well as a liquid cash pot for emergencies. It’s never good to be forced to sell any type of asset if you suddenly find yourself low on (short term) cash flow. The best returns are often from the highest risk with the bulk of my returns in the stock market from speculative investments. It wouldn’t be prudent to put too much in there in case the gambles don’t pay off. I try to keep an open mind about any investment (even dabbled with wine at a stage). If they start going south and I believe it won’t correct in the long term then it’s time to get out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arrgee1991 Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 (edited) I don’t think the property market in all areas will crash as much as many on here hope. However, it’s good if enough people in the market believe it will as it will put downward pressure on prices. As a landlord I want prices to drop as it means I can buy more stock in the future. My stock investments give much better returns but there’s a lot more work involved. The other thing to consider is quality of stock. If there are fewer prime properties on the market then the prices for those will be disproportionate to the rest of the market (seeing evidence of this already), ie. Higher. If prices drop too low then I’d be concerned the quality of stock would also decrease. Why move from a place that’s nice but not ideal when you’re in negative equity? I think it will crash as much as I expect in my area. I see my place dropping 25% in the next 18 months. I don't see that stock involves more work than property. I have a few funds doing very nicely and all I have ever done is pay for them. No service nor maintenance required. When markets collapse, even the better properties fall with it and become available. Around 20 years ago on a market collapse when I first bought, there was a great choice. I got exactly what I wanted. 10 years later when markets were buoyant, I had to settle for something in the right area that wasn't quite ideal. Last year, I was lucky to find one place I would even consider moving to. Green space, parking, transport and schools will always help properties demand a premium, but it will be relative. Simply because people have less value in lesser areas to move into the nice ones. Edited June 22, 2011 by arrgee1991 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flybait Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Love it That's what a smart "investor" would do, n'est-ce pas. However, most of the amateur BTL crowd hold on, hoping to gain more. They are always in "for the long term" It’s easier to be smug when you’re sitting on the sidelines. I don’t claim to be the best investor around, in fact I’m actually quite lazy. Is investing in property the best thing to do? Not really. Savvy investors can make money in almost any market at any time, but I’m one of them. So would you sell a BTL property that was positively geared? If so, what would you do with the money instead? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 No one ever wants their investments to drop in value but obviously it happens. Aside from opportunity cost you only really loose when you sell any type of asset that's gone down in value. I already own the properties I have so there's not a lot I can do about it if they do drop, as long as it still makes more sense to keep them than not. Diversification. I don't think anyone would argue it's wiser to diversify interests/investments. Since I don't have a crystal ball I can't tell with absolute certainty what will happen with the stock or property market so I prefer to have investments in both, as well as a liquid cash pot for emergencies. It's never good to be forced to sell any type of asset if you suddenly find yourself low on (short term) cash flow. The best returns are often from the highest risk with the bulk of my returns in the stock market from speculative investments. It wouldn't be prudent to put too much in there in case the gambles don't pay off. I try to keep an open mind about any investment (even dabbled with wine at a stage). If they start going south and I believe it won't correct in the long term then it's time to get out. eh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 It's easier to be smug when you're sitting on the sidelines. I don't claim to be the best investor around, in fact I'm actually quite lazy. Is investing in property the best thing to do? Not really. Savvy investors can make money in almost any market at any time, but I'm one of them. So would you sell a BTL property that was positively geared? If so, what would you do with the money instead? what? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flybait Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 I think it will crash as much as I expect in my area. I see my place dropping 25% in the next 18 months. I don't see that stock involves more work than property. I have a few funds doing very nicely and all I have ever done is pay for them. No service nor maintenance required. The returns from managed funds can be decent but the real (short term) wins and losses are in speculating. Danger is you can loose months or even a year of profit in a matter of days if you’re not careful. Sure, funds are dead easy and tax efficient but it’s a slow growth most of the time and sometimes even they go backwards. Not to say they’re bad, I have two for my pension as part of my diversification but that’s a long term investment. My father’s on the right track I think. Used to have several properties but sold them all over time and now plays the stock market every day since retirement and makes far more money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 (edited) Danger is you can loose months or even a year of profit in a matter of days if you're not careful. You're not the 'savvy investor' you claim to be i you don't even know spelling difference between lose and loose. From my point of view, £85K in a UK savings account earning no interest is better than so many investment opportunities out there at the moment. Edit to add quote You're not getting much from savings these days but earning 0% is better than losing 50%. Nouriel Roubini, June 2009 Edited June 22, 2011 by Venger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arrgee1991 Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Savvy investors can make money in almost any market at any time, but I’m one of them. That's some claim. I have generally been more lucky than savvy. A couple of sure things went down the pan (dot com shares in a company I worked for getting 20% off market price - sigh), but mostly my returns have been positive. Often by not participating in overpriced markets. I sold out of FTSE stocks around 2001/2002 to get deposit for house and never went back in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flybait Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 You're not the 'savvy investor' you claim to be i you don't even know spelling difference between lose and loose. "Savvy investors can make money in almost any market at any time, but I’m one of them." Oh gee, got me there...damn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arrgee1991 Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 The returns from managed funds can be decent... They can be more than decent. Even tracker funds/ETFs can give big returns for very low fees. There is a downside, but the range of upside/downside is far more in speculating. http://www.financial-spread-betting.com/Secrets-of-spread-betting.html Almost 90% of those who tread into the spread betting markets close their accounts within 3 months... http://www.traderhideout.com/trading-news/the-winner-takes-all-with-spread-betting.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agentimmo Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 It’s easier to be smug when you’re sitting on the sidelines. I don’t claim to be the best investor around, in fact I’m actually quite lazy. Is investing in property the best thing to do? Not really. Savvy investors can make money in almost any market at any time, but I’m one of them. So would you sell a BTL property that was positively geared? If so, what would you do with the money instead? Sir, I wouldn't have a BTL property as I think houses are for living in and not to be owned by a rentier class depriving others of accomodation. That's why I post on HPC and not BTL-For-Tools.com. And for your info, I'm not "on the sidelines". My pot of cash makes near 4% net for me at the moment. Much better than any of my friends' BTL's which are bleeding money Houses have never interested me as investments. Much more interesting things out there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flybait Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 That's some claim. I have generally been more lucky than savvy. A couple of sure things went down the pan (dot com shares in a company I worked for getting 20% off market price - sigh), but mostly my returns have been positive. Often by not participating in overpriced markets. I sold out of FTSE stocks around 2001/2002 to get deposit for house and never went back in. See above, is this selective reading day? I’m sure with a bit of Google effort you can dig up lists of multi-millionaires and billionaires that have increased their fortune in this economy. These are the savvy investors I’m referring to if people actually bother to read the post properly. There are some very smart cookies out there and much as we love to hate them, the brains behind the credit “fraud” in recent years almost top the list. Credit where it’s due. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arrgee1991 Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 (edited) See above, is this selective reading day? I’m sure with a bit of Google effort you can dig up lists of multi-millionaires and billionaires that have increased their fortune in this economy. These are the savvy investors I’m referring to if people actually bother to read the post properly. There are some very smart cookies out there and much as we love to hate them, the brains behind the credit “fraud” in recent years almost top the list. Credit where it’s due. Uh, you wrote you are one of the savvy investors. I did read the post properly. Maybe you didn't write it correctly. Edited June 22, 2011 by arrgee1991 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arrgee1991 Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Savvy investors can make money in almost any market at any time, but I’m one of them. How is that selective reading? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flybait Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 How is that selective reading? I stand corrected . I have selective reading! My apologies. This part was correct: I don't claim to be the best investor around, in fact I'm actually quite lazy. This part should read: Savvy investors can make money in almost any market at any time, but I'm NOT one of them. Better? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 From my point of view, £85K in a UK savings account earning no interest is better than so many investment opportunities out there at the moment. +1 The risks are too great. Housing is going down. Shares and commods at bubble levels. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted June 22, 2011 Author Share Posted June 22, 2011 You're not the 'savvy investor' you claim to be i you don't even know spelling difference between lose and loose. From my point of view, £85K in a UK savings account earning no interest is better than so many investment opportunities out there at the moment. Edit to add quote Nouriel Roubini, June 2009 Have £85K in an instant-access, unlimited penalty-free withdrawals account that's earning 2.9% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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