Tired of Waiting Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 (edited) From other threads we know supply (number of houses for sale) is going up. Here we see clearly demand falling. Therefore, prices will fall. Interesting chart here: http://www.moneyweek.com/~/media/MoneyWeek/indicators/UK-house-prices/BOE-11-06-01 The British property market is in for a gloomy summerBy Associate Editor David Stevenson Jun 01, 2011 As summer gets underway, how's Britain's housing market looking? If today's news is anything to go by, the answer is: not too good. One way of gauging future demand for UK property is to look at the number of new mortgages that have been approved for house purchases. Changes in this number tend to be reflected in moves in the mainstream house price indices about four months later. The latest figures are just out from the Bank of England. They show that in April, approvals dipped to 45,166, a four-month low, from 47,145 in March. What's more, the latest figure is 8% down on the 49,657 approvals level of a year ago. And it's miles away from the peak of 129,168 approvals seen in November 2006. Meanwhile, the Nationwide UK house price index for May showed a 1.2% year-on-year drop when it came out last week. You can keep regular track of this house price indicator – and several others we reckon are well worth watching – on our house price indicators page. The number of remortgages is also falling, sliding 10% on the month. Yes, it's been an odd time of year, with Easter being so late, and then the royal wedding. And yes, this might have distorted the figures. But "underlying demand still looks very weak", says Paul Diggle at Capital Economics. Further, banks are still "wary of lending to first-time buyers or others with low deposits". What does this mean for UK house prices? It can only be bad news. We look at how bad – and what a major new piece of analysis is saying about Britain's housing market as well – in tomorrow's Money Morning (sign up here for this free daily email). http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/uk/the-british-property-market-is-in-for-a-gloomy-summer-12206 http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/economic-indicators/uk-house-prices/03-boe-mortgage-approvals-uk-house-price-indicator-00002 Edited June 3, 2011 by Tired of Waiting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inflating Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 When did moneyweek first get bearish on property? Was it 2002? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pent Up Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 When did moneyweek first get bearish on property? Was it 2002? 1976 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tired of Waiting Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 (edited) When did moneyweek first get bearish on property? Was it 2002? Probably. IMHO the Autumn and winter will be more interesting than the summer. We may have a few good bargains by Feb2012. I'm guestimating up to 10% price falls from here. Edit: Very interesting chart nonetheless, here: http://www.moneyweek.com/~/media/MoneyWeek/indicators/UK-house-prices/BOE-11-06-01 Edited June 3, 2011 by Tired of Waiting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lagarde's Drift Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 1976 Yah, a bit like one or two on here really, chanting away whilst others made hay in the sunshine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tired of Waiting Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 Yah, a bit like one or two on here really, chanting away whilst others made hay in the sunshine. Sure, but what about the Wall Street Journal? Here: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=164563 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs Bear Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 From other threads we know supply (number of houses for sale is going up. Here we see clearly demand falling. Therefore, prices will fall. Interesting chart here: http://www.moneyweek.com/~/media/MoneyWeek/indicators/UK-house-prices/BOE-11-06-01 http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/uk/the-british-property-market-is-in-for-a-gloomy-summer-12206 http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/economic-indicators/uk-house-prices/03-boe-mortgage-approvals-uk-house-price-indicator-00002 Meanwhile, in the Times Bricks and Mortar section today, there's a whole page on 'Is it time to get back into buy to let?' And Head of B&M coven Anne Ashworth invites you to 'sip a latte, pop into the deli, and marvel at the rise in house prices' in Chiswick. I do wonder why I read it - must have a masochistic streak. Or else I just enjoy a really good bitch about the ever-gloating Anne Ghastly Ashworth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pent Up Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Probably. IMHO the Autumn and winter will be more interesting than the summer. We may have a few good bargains by Feb2012. I'm guestimating up to 10% price falls from here. Edit: Very interesting chart nonetheless, here: http://www.moneyweek.com/~/media/MoneyWeek/indicators/UK-house-prices/BOE-11-06-01 I'm looking forward to the summer lull Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrpleasant Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 'sip a latte, pop into the deli, and marvel at the rise in house prices' Dear god, did she really say that?! Is that woman pleased with herself or what... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inflating Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 1976 BC Probably. IMHO the Autumn and winter will be more interesting than the summer. We may have a few good bargains by Feb2012. I'm guestimating up to 10% price falls from here. Edit: Very interesting chart nonetheless, here: http://www.moneyweek.com/~/media/MoneyWeek/indicators/UK-house-prices/BOE-11-06-01 Is moneyweek like the yin to the Daily Express 's yang or something? Why does Ashworth think rising home prices are to be celebrated? Does she celebrate the price of staple foods rising too, personally I shall celebrate when anything she needs to buy goes up in price by double digits and ahead of her income growth and see how she likes it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lagarde's Drift Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 I'm not saying any of the publications or posters on here are wrong, and I do feel sympathy for those (all of us?) who were caught out by the sheer scale of govermental willing to kick the can down the road. On that American writing it mentions Japan - that is the danger for all of us, including bears, it will be mucho pain. So the bears gleefully rubbing their hands may find that they are as ballsdeep as everyone else. Unless they emigrate (but to where?). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muswell Hillbilly Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Meanwhile, in the Times Bricks and Mortar section today, there's a whole page on 'Is it time to get back into buy to let?' And Head of B&M coven Anne Ashworth invites you to 'sip a latte, pop into the deli, and marvel at the rise in house prices' in Chiswick. I do wonder why I read it - must have a masochistic streak. Or else I just enjoy a really good bitch about the ever-gloating Anne Ghastly Ashworth. It was thanks to the lovely Anne Ashworth that I discovered this site! I picked up a ‘Bricks and Mortar’ supplement that somebody had left on a bus, and there was a mention of housepricecrash.co.uk in it. And here I am, six and a half years later – I know I really should get out more … Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tired of Waiting Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 (edited) (...) Why does Ashworth think rising home prices are to be celebrated? Does she celebrate the price of staple foods rising too, personally I shall celebrate when anything she needs to buy goes up in price by double digits and ahead of her income growth and see how she likes it Exactly. That is the weirdest thing of all. The most puzzling. Even the BBC can go from: petrol prices going up = disaster housing costs going up = "good news!" My oldest question is: Are they morons, or lunatics? Or b@stards (editors are properties owners)? Edited June 3, 2011 by Tired of Waiting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lagarde's Drift Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Exactly. That is the weirdest thing of all. The most puzzling. Even the BBC can go from: petrol prices going up = disaster housing costs going up = "good news!" My oldest question is: Are they morons, or lunatics? Or b@stards (editors are properties owners)? Not puzzling at all. Petrol prices = something I have to pay for continually (unless I have my own Exxon tanker to draw from) House prices = something I have already paid for but which is appreciating in "value" so someone else will have to pay more (ie this is my own Exxon tanker fully paid for) A bit like those owning a tulip garden smirking away as others bid stupid prices for their stupid bulbs. It's complete lunacy, but not puzzling at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inflating Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Exactly. That is the weirdest thing of all. The most puzzling. Even the BBC can go from: petrol prices going up = disaster housing costs going up = "good news!" My oldest question is: Are they morons, or lunatics? Or b@stards (editors are properties owners)? It reminds me of people cheering wage rises - what follows if wages rise is that all prices rise due to the extra demand caused by those now earning larger nominal sums, so those with their hard-won higher wage demands met then find themselves back where they started. Property prices rise, people feel wealthy, the prices of things they buy rises, then they're not as wealthy as they thought they were after that happens, then they have to go back to the dealer (the BoE) for another fix so that they can stay ahead of the inflation and "wealth" curve. At the moment, the BoE seem only to happy to keep the junkies hooked. You have to question what on earth is really going on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rentforlife Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 forgive my ignorance, where will I be able to see how many houses are being put onto market & compare it to previous years/months? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tired of Waiting Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 forgive my ignorance, where will I be able to see how many houses are being put onto market & compare it to previous years/months? Rightmove has this tool, per postcode: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-my-area/marketTrendsTotalAvailableListingsAndNew.html?searchLocation=nw1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 (edited) Probably. IMHO the Autumn and winter will be more interesting than the summer. We may have a few good bargains by Feb2012. I'm guestimating up to 10% price falls from here. Edit: Very interesting chart nonetheless, here: http://www.moneyweek...es/BOE-11-06-01 Not enough. Market won`t move without a proper correction? millions would be stuck in homes they could never sell? Edited June 3, 2011 by dances with sheeple Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tired of Waiting Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 Not enough. Market won`t move without a proper correction? millions would be stuck in homes they could never sell? Sorry, I didn't understand that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Sorry, I didn't understand that. Market needs to drop more than 10% before people can/will buy property? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tired of Waiting Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 Market needs to drop more than 10% before people can/will buy property? Oh I agree with that. I just meant that I think prices may fall some 10% between now and the end of the year, or at most by the end of the winter. And that we could start to find a few bargains by then. But I agree that average prices should keep falling after that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiveAndLetBuy Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Exactly. That is the weirdest thing of all. The most puzzling. Even the BBC can go from: petrol prices going up = disaster housing costs going up = "good news!" My oldest question is: Are they morons, or lunatics? Or b@stards (editors are properties owners)? increasing prices of stuff you consume = disaster increasing prices of stuff you have bought and will then sell on at some later date = "good news!" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Oh I agree with that. I just meant that I think prices may fall some 10% between now and the end of the year, or at most by the end of the winter. And that we could start to find a few bargains by then. But I agree that average prices should keep falling after that. Ok, got you, I think you my be right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tired of Waiting Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 increasing prices of stuff you consume = disaster increasing prices of stuff you have bought and will then sell on at some later date = "good news!" (...) House prices = something I have already paid for but which is appreciating in "value" so someone else will have to pay more (ie this is my own Exxon tanker fully paid for) A bit like those owning a tulip garden smirking away as others bid stupid prices for their stupid bulbs. It's complete lunacy, but not puzzling at all. Only for those residential property owners already completely satisfied with their current properties, and not wishing to "upgrade", never. Considering how cr@p UK housing is, I don't think the majority of residential property owners (flat owners included), are in this position. Besides, when I mentioned the BBC I was thinking about their responsibility of scrutinising public policy, and the national interest broad sense, the public good. And in this sense... high property prices... well, please see my forum signature, below: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 MW has another article on UK HPs in today's edition but I let my subscription lapse so will have to go read it in WH Smith. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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