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Tired of Waiting

" U K Property Market Is In For A Gloomy Summer "

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From other threads we know supply (number of houses for sale) is going up. Here we see clearly demand falling. Therefore, prices will fall.

Interesting chart here: http://www.moneyweek.com/~/media/MoneyWeek/indicators/UK-house-prices/BOE-11-06-01

The British property market is in for a gloomy summer

By Associate Editor David Stevenson Jun 01, 2011

As summer gets underway, how's Britain's housing market looking?

If today's news is anything to go by, the answer is: not too good.

One way of gauging future demand for UK property is to look at the number of new mortgages that have been approved for house purchases. Changes in this number tend to be reflected in moves in the mainstream house price indices about four months later.

The latest figures are just out from the Bank of England. They show that in April, approvals dipped to 45,166, a four-month low, from 47,145 in March. What's more, the latest figure is 8% down on the 49,657 approvals level of a year ago. And it's miles away from the peak of 129,168 approvals seen in November 2006.

Meanwhile, the Nationwide UK house price index for May showed a 1.2% year-on-year drop when it came out last week. You can keep regular track of this house price indicator – and several others we reckon are well worth watching – on our house price indicators page.

The number of remortgages is also falling, sliding 10% on the month. Yes, it's been an odd time of year, with Easter being so late, and then the royal wedding. And yes, this might have distorted the figures.

But "underlying demand still looks very weak", says Paul Diggle at Capital Economics. Further, banks are still "wary of lending to first-time buyers or others with low deposits".

What does this mean for UK house prices? It can only be bad news. We look at how bad – and what a major new piece of analysis is saying about Britain's housing market as well – in tomorrow's Money Morning (sign up here for this free daily email).

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/uk/the-british-property-market-is-in-for-a-gloomy-summer-12206

http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/economic-indicators/uk-house-prices/03-boe-mortgage-approvals-uk-house-price-indicator-00002

Edited by Tired of Waiting

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When did moneyweek first get bearish on property? Was it 2002?

Probably. IMHO the Autumn and winter will be more interesting than the summer. We may have a few good bargains by Feb2012. I'm guestimating up to 10% price falls from here.

Edit: Very interesting chart nonetheless, here: http://www.moneyweek.com/~/media/MoneyWeek/indicators/UK-house-prices/BOE-11-06-01

Edited by Tired of Waiting

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Meanwhile, in the Times Bricks and Mortar section today, there's a whole page on 'Is it time to get back into buy to let?' And Head of B&M coven Anne Ashworth invites you to 'sip a latte, pop into the deli, and marvel at the rise in house prices' in Chiswick.

I do wonder why I read it - must have a masochistic streak. Or else I just enjoy a really good bitch about the ever-gloating Anne Ghastly Ashworth.

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Probably. IMHO the Autumn and winter will be more interesting than the summer. We may have a few good bargains by Feb2012. I'm guestimating up to 10% price falls from here.

Edit: Very interesting chart nonetheless, here: http://www.moneyweek.com/~/media/MoneyWeek/indicators/UK-house-prices/BOE-11-06-01

I'm looking forward to the summer lull :)

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1976

BC

Probably. IMHO the Autumn and winter will be more interesting than the summer. We may have a few good bargains by Feb2012. I'm guestimating up to 10% price falls from here.

Edit: Very interesting chart nonetheless, here: http://www.moneyweek.com/~/media/MoneyWeek/indicators/UK-house-prices/BOE-11-06-01

Is moneyweek like the yin to the Daily Express 's yang or something?

Why does Ashworth think rising home prices are to be celebrated? Does she celebrate the price of staple foods rising too, personally I shall celebrate when anything she needs to buy goes up in price by double digits and ahead of her income growth and see how she likes it

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I'm not saying any of the publications or posters on here are wrong, and I do feel sympathy for those (all of us?) who were caught out by the sheer scale of govermental willing to kick the can down the road.

On that American writing it mentions Japan - that is the danger for all of us, including bears, it will be mucho pain. So the bears gleefully rubbing their hands may find that they are as ballsdeep as everyone else. Unless they emigrate (but to where?).

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Meanwhile, in the Times Bricks and Mortar section today, there's a whole page on 'Is it time to get back into buy to let?' And Head of B&M coven Anne Ashworth invites you to 'sip a latte, pop into the deli, and marvel at the rise in house prices' in Chiswick.

I do wonder why I read it - must have a masochistic streak. Or else I just enjoy a really good bitch about the ever-gloating Anne Ghastly Ashworth.

It was thanks to the lovely Anne Ashworth that I discovered this site! I picked up a ‘Bricks and Mortar’ supplement that somebody had left on a bus, and there was a mention of housepricecrash.co.uk in it. And here I am, six and a half years later – I know I really should get out more …

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(...)

Why does Ashworth think rising home prices are to be celebrated? Does she celebrate the price of staple foods rising too, personally I shall celebrate when anything she needs to buy goes up in price by double digits and ahead of her income growth and see how she likes it

Exactly. That is the weirdest thing of all. The most puzzling.

Even the BBC can go from:

petrol prices going up = disaster

housing costs going up = "good news!"

:blink:

My oldest question is: Are they morons, or lunatics? Or b@stards (editors are properties owners)?

Edited by Tired of Waiting

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Exactly. That is the weirdest thing of all. The most puzzling.

Even the BBC can go from:

petrol prices going up = disaster

housing costs going up = "good news!"

:blink:

My oldest question is: Are they morons, or lunatics? Or b@stards (editors are properties owners)?

Not puzzling at all.

Petrol prices = something I have to pay for continually (unless I have my own Exxon tanker to draw from)

House prices = something I have already paid for but which is appreciating in "value" so someone else will have to pay more (ie this is my own Exxon tanker fully paid for)

A bit like those owning a tulip garden smirking away as others bid stupid prices for their stupid bulbs. It's complete lunacy, but not puzzling at all.

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Exactly. That is the weirdest thing of all. The most puzzling.

Even the BBC can go from:

petrol prices going up = disaster

housing costs going up = "good news!"

:blink:

My oldest question is: Are they morons, or lunatics? Or b@stards (editors are properties owners)?

It reminds me of people cheering wage rises - what follows if wages rise is that all prices rise due to the extra demand caused by those now earning larger nominal sums, so those with their hard-won higher wage demands met then find themselves back where they started. Property prices rise, people feel wealthy, the prices of things they buy rises, then they're not as wealthy as they thought they were after that happens, then they have to go back to the dealer (the BoE) for another fix so that they can stay ahead of the inflation and "wealth" curve. At the moment, the BoE seem only to happy to keep the junkies hooked. You have to question what on earth is really going on.

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Probably. IMHO the Autumn and winter will be more interesting than the summer. We may have a few good bargains by Feb2012. I'm guestimating up to 10% price falls from here.

Edit: Very interesting chart nonetheless, here: http://www.moneyweek...es/BOE-11-06-01

Not enough. Market won`t move without a proper correction? millions would be stuck in homes they could never sell?

Edited by dances with sheeple

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Market needs to drop more than 10% before people can/will buy property?

Oh I agree with that. I just meant that I think prices may fall some 10% between now and the end of the year, or at most by the end of the winter. And that we could start to find a few bargains by then. But I agree that average prices should keep falling after that.

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Exactly. That is the weirdest thing of all. The most puzzling.

Even the BBC can go from:

petrol prices going up = disaster

housing costs going up = "good news!"

:blink:

My oldest question is: Are they morons, or lunatics? Or b@stards (editors are properties owners)?

increasing prices of stuff you consume = disaster

increasing prices of stuff you have bought and will then sell on at some later date = "good news!"

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Oh I agree with that. I just meant that I think prices may fall some 10% between now and the end of the year, or at most by the end of the winter. And that we could start to find a few bargains by then. But I agree that average prices should keep falling after that.

Ok, got you, I think you my be right.

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increasing prices of stuff you consume = disaster

increasing prices of stuff you have bought and will then sell on at some later date = "good news!"

(...)

House prices = something I have already paid for but which is appreciating in "value" so someone else will have to pay more (ie this is my own Exxon tanker fully paid for)

A bit like those owning a tulip garden smirking away as others bid stupid prices for their stupid bulbs. It's complete lunacy, but not puzzling at all.

Only for those residential property owners already completely satisfied with their current properties, and not wishing to "upgrade", never. Considering how cr@p UK housing is, I don't think the majority of residential property owners (flat owners included), are in this position.

Besides, when I mentioned the BBC I was thinking about their responsibility of scrutinising public policy, and the national interest broad sense, the public good. And in this sense... high property prices... well, please see my forum signature, below:

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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