getknk Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 oh.no.. There is deep slide in properties being sold!! surely a crash is starting.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hpc-craig Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Here is a graph from my area showing volumes of 'Newly Marketed Properties' vs 'Sold Properties' over the past 2 years Look at that pent up supply!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 CV21 where I live, looking at detached houses.. Detached £234,545 (11) £222,350 (7) £206,499 (9) £186,242 (6) £208,599 (5) £160,000 (1) 1, yes, just 1 house in Feb 11 I can beat that in my area... Big fat zero detacheds sold! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
small_stakes Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I disagree on the sellers' strike (unless you call putting properties up for loony prices a strike). According to the attached, supply is increasing (since 09) but transaction rates are declining. It's down to the massive discrepancy between sellers' desires and the credit available to buyers, IMO, and it can only last for so long. One trend I am seeing though is vendors deciding that, as they "can't sell in this difficult climate", they're going to change their mortgage to a BTL, let their existing property out and get another mortgage to upsize to a new property. (I'm renting off someone who did this, as are several of my neighbours, and I see requests for info on this all the time on MSE.) The agent I'm renting through now makes most of their income from lettings management rather than sales, and I suspect there are plenty of agents out there encouraging people who "can't sell" to take this route so they can get the lettings management revenue. I still don't think it's anything like enough to balance the drastic drop in 'demand' (credit) though. And things are probably about to get very messy for a lot of amateur landlords who haven't really done the numbers. As ever it depends if people need to move ... on my road in London I know of (1) Family in a flat who need to move to a house as new baby (2) Family in a 4 bed they've done up that they'd like to cash in and move to a much bigger house down in Streatham (3) Flat being sold by elderly lady who moved into sheltered housing (4) House being sold by family who are moving up to near her family in Peterborough (5) House being sold by elderly couple who've bought a flat and want to release equity for their kids. Now that's 5 people who have to sell ... sadly (for the HPCers) at the moment 3 of them are under offer. But it goes to show that people can only hold on for so long. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinceBalls Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 (edited) Hi There, just to be clear, I do think putting a property on for looney price is part of the buyers strike. I include anything which is preventing stock from being sold. For instance, putting something on the market for a crazy price which is clearly not realistic for market action (a sale) is pretty much the same as not bothering to put it up for sale. It's like me tying to sell a second hand pair of trainers for £5000! I am not really a serious market participant and therefore am part of the sellers strike. My observations are only in a couple of areas of the South East which I know are not representative of the overall market; I have said that though. What I am seeing is a continuation of restricted properties coming onto the market that can actually be sold - so a restriction of supply. As a consequence, when a half decent property does come onto the market (rare) it is being competed for by numerous buyers keen to move on with their lives. As I say, this is an observation of the markets I am looking in and not the whole of the UK. Ta I disagree on the sellers' strike (unless you call putting properties up for loony prices a strike). According to the attached, supply is increasing (since 09) but transaction rates are declining. It's down to the massive discrepancy between sellers' desires and the credit available to buyers, IMO, and it can only last for so long. One trend I am seeing though is vendors deciding that, as they "can't sell in this difficult climate", they're going to change their mortgage to a BTL, let their existing property out and get another mortgage to upsize to a new property. (I'm renting off someone who did this, as are several of my neighbours, and I see requests for info on this all the time on MSE.) The agent I'm renting through now makes most of their income from lettings management rather than sales, and I suspect there are plenty of agents out there encouraging people who "can't sell" to take this route so they can get the lettings management revenue. I still don't think it's anything like enough to balance the drastic drop in 'demand' (credit) though. And things are probably about to get very messy for a lot of amateur landlords who haven't really done the numbers. Edited March 31, 2011 by MinceBalls Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinceBalls Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The sellers strike ended early last year. Look at the houses on the Market tab on the same page. Not where I am looking! I appreciate that my observations are from a group of areas which are lagging behind the overall falling trend but I am only recounting my own observations and not the whole of the UK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarahleyburn Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Hi There, just to be clear, I do think putting a property on for looney price is part of the buyers strike. I include anything which is preventing stock from being sold. For instance, putting something on the market for a crazy price which is clearly not realistic for market action (a sale) is pretty much the same as not bothering to put it up for sale. It's like me tying to sell a second hand pair of trainers for £5000! I am not really a serious market participant and therefore am part of the sellers strike. My observations are only in a couple of areas of the South East which I know are not representative of the overall market; I have said that though. What I am seeing is a continuation of restricted properties coming onto the market that can actually be sold - so a restriction of supply. As a consequence, when a half decent property does come onto the market (rare) it is being competed for by numerous buyers keen to move on with their lives. As I say, this is an observation of the markets I am looking in and not the whole of the UK. Ta Fair enough - if you're including crazy prices, then we agree. And the South East is about the only part of England I don't bother to keep an eye on, for the sake of my mental health. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pent Up Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Not where I am looking! I appreciate that my observations are from a group of areas which are lagging behind the overall falling trend but I am only recounting my own observations and not the whole of the UK. Which area? Obviously I too can only speak for my own areas too but what I see seems to be exhoed by most others here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Am I read this right? Under 'Sold' there are brackets for flats, semis and detached with single digit numbers in for each month? Are those the number of houses sold in a given month? If so, a tiny amount of houses are being sold in my area of SA2 and SA3. That can't be right. It is showing just 11 properties sold in SA3 in Feb and just 10 in SA2. These are large areas of Swansea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pent Up Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Am I read this right? Under 'Sold' there are brackets for flats, semis and detached with single digit numbers in for each month? Are those the number of houses sold in a given month? If so, a tiny amount of houses are being sold in my area of SA2 and SA3. That can't be right. It is showing just 11 properties sold in SA3 in Feb and just 10 in SA2. These are large areas of Swansea. I think we concluded earlier in the thread that this are initial figures only and will be updated over the next few months as more sales data is submitted to the land registry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I think we concluded earlier in the thread that this are initial figures only and will be updated over the next few months as more sales data is submitted to the land registry. Right, thanks. I didn't read the rest of the thread. OK, got excited over nothing then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinceBalls Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Which area? Obviously I too can only speak for my own areas too but what I see seems to be exhoed by most others here. Hiya. I've kept an eye on some London postcodes (waste of my time!), Brighton, Whitstable. Anything which is a half decent family home is as if a crash never happened. All the OK places are asking peak + 10-15% and they actually seem to be selling! There are simply no decent family homes at anywhere near peak price let alone below! Sometimes I think I am living in a parallel universe! As an example, a new high was created for an area I am looking in Whitstable in June 2010 and consequently, everything that is coming on now is that new high plus some more on top! I think I am going to have to sit it out until next summer and then consider again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silver surfer Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Hiya. I've kept an eye on some London postcodes (waste of my time!), Brighton, Whitstable. Anything which is a half decent family home is as if a crash never happened. All the OK places are asking peak + 10-15% and they actually seem to be selling! There are simply no decent family homes at anywhere near peak price let alone below! Sometimes I think I am living in a parallel universe! As an example, a new high was created for an area I am looking in Whitstable in June 2010 and consequently, everything that is coming on now is that new high plus some more on top! I think I am going to have to sit it out until next summer and then consider again. +1 It's a two speed crash. City centre flats, tiny newbuild starter homes, clapped out terraces or bungalows, property in crime or unemployment blackspots, are all leading the charge downwards and driving the average price declines. But good quality family houses in decent postcodes are coming down at a snail's pace if at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC1 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 BUT, is it nice? low transaction numbers indicate to me that a SELLERS STRIKE is occurring and has been for the last 2 years. This sellers strike is enabling house prices to stay high and in some places - London, Brighton and others I could mention - actually surpass the 2008 highs. People have cottoned on that so long as they don't sell their property or manage to throttle supply that house prices remain high. Supply and demand indicates to me that supply is in short supply still and this pushes prices upwards. For prices to be forced down supply needs to increase and with it the number of transactions will also increase. We need much more supply and a gradual increase in transaction numbers to see declines - an end to the sellers strike Please! +1 unfortunately. BN1 & BN3 are my postcodes of interest. I have recently sold my flat in the hope of being able to buy a tiny shoebox house of some sort. Similar properties that were around £300,000 at the tail of last year are now on at £315,000 or more! The lack of supply is a joke - the agents are telling me that sellers who aren't getting the offers they want are just staying put and not budging their price, with the effect that (asking) prices are moving ever upwards! Can't see us being able to afford a house at this rate, but loathe to go back into poxy overpriced rental properties with no sense of security! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tahoma Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Just tried my watch areas. Transactions are absolutely down the pan. Thank god I sold my house. The vast majority of places for sale are not 'on the market' as such, as there is no buyer even considering their current price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reck B Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 (edited) Right, thanks. I didn't read the rest of the thread. OK, got excited over nothing then. I bet Januarys sales figures are fairly low though. As a rough and ready test, go to yell.com and see how many estate agents there are in the area, then laugh at how little business the slimy gelled hair shysters are getting through. It's more satisfying than the daily rightmove/ 24 hour/5 mile radius checks which only show up depressingly & stubbornly overpriced property. Edited March 31, 2011 by Reck B Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinceBalls Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 +1 unfortunately. BN1 & BN3 are my postcodes of interest. I have recently sold my flat in the hope of being able to buy a tiny shoebox house of some sort. Similar properties that were around £300,000 at the tail of last year are now on at £315,000 or more! The lack of supply is a joke - the agents are telling me that sellers who aren't getting the offers they want are just staying put and not budging their price, with the effect that (asking) prices are moving ever upwards! Can't see us being able to afford a house at this rate, but loathe to go back into poxy overpriced rental properties with no sense of security! I feel your pain, I really do! Brighton (centre) is a f8cking joke at the minute with regards to asking prices - 3 -4 bed terraces in good nick are being put up for 550-650K. with a small garden or courtyard! You get better value in Dulwich Village in London but with a cycle ride to work as opposed to a cr@ppy commute. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dissident junk Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Is this data complete, or will more sales be added later? I've had a look at OX1, OX2, OX3 and OX4. If the data is complete, it is showing a total market failure in those postcodes - easily the lowest sales on record. Tell me about it ... total market failure where I am. Over 300 properties for sale every month; the sold figures you can count on two hands. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I've now heard back from RightMove - pretty much as expected. My bold: (...)we do use Land Registry for the compilation of this data. As I am sure you are aware, transactions take time to filter through to the Land Registry and thus us. So whilst we have only received 25 records for January and 7 for February over the months ahead other sales will filter through to the Land Registry and our data will reflect this, once the sample sizes are bigger the volatilely of the data is reduced, we calculate a simple average from the Land Registry data and as such when volumes are small this average is prone to fluctuation. These are only intended as general guides and are best viewed over a longer time period where small month to month variations are less apparent. I hope this helps answer your query. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The EAs in Swansea have nearly all gone back to advertising in the local property rag fortnightly as opposed to, at the start of the year, beginning to advertise weekly again. Think that says it all really. Despite that, new properties coming on the market seem to come on for higher and higher asking prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onesmallstep Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 hmm my area, 2 properties sold in feb,next lowest was feb 2009 with 5 all other febs are well over 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinceBalls Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 I've now heard back from RightMove - pretty much as expected. My bold: So to conclude, it is a completely useless tool if trying to get a picture of the market in the most recent few months. The swings are just too big to be any use where I am looking (+/- 20%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kokeshi Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 February figures have been updated, up from 8 to 21 in my search area, still down considerably from the end of 2010..march figures have also appeared but they seem completely off, average terrace price is a whopping £277K whereas a detached is £170K, I think someone has messed up. still no update on the number of marketed properties, still showing only Januarys figures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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