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This Is The Kind Of Drop In House Prices You May Get When You Get The Crash In Mainland Uk

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It seems that way but when I moved to NI in 2006 houses were going up in price exponentially. There was a frenzy as people bid up houses and this one would have been priced at closer to 500K then. Today is a different matter. What economic activity does Wales have at above average wages to support high house prices? Is there a lot of public sector like NI?

If it can happen in NI then the drops can happen in any area reliant on public sector wages.

70% of Welsh jobs are public sector. Yet to hear of one single one to lose their job. I did hear of one about 6 months ago but they changed their mind and he is still in work.

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Getting nearer reality. For comparison, I was looking at German houses:

http://www.german-properties.de/properties-moselle-rhine-eifel-hunsrueck.htm

Look at the place for €225k.

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Quite agree. I just bought a prime location with a A+ sea and Sussex Downs view for £200k! Will spend a bit to bring it up to £225k moved in and it will be as nice as the one illustrated but maybe 1/2 of that size.

IMO house prices will drop 15-20% this year and the same again next year before levelling off at around 40% dwon from peak. In less fortunate areas 50-60% down from peak is a real possibility. Wales is apprently the only area left where prices are rising due to the desirability factor and resistance to any job losses. Plus, everyone wants to live there!

The BIG one is here.

Edited by Realistbear

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Getting nearer reality. For comparison, I was looking at German houses:

http://www.german-properties.de/properties-moselle-rhine-eifel-hunsrueck.htm

Look at the place for €225k.

I was wondering why a German friend of mine has a gorgeous house near Frankfurt and a holiday home in Greece.

There is one there that says 'Former Forester's lodge for nature lovers, suitable f. keeping animals'

Ideal for running around naked before slipping on the leather shorts and slapping of bottoms then?

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I am seeing major falls in rural Wales already - have already seen 30-40% off on some properties.

Btw, MT, I know one Welsh public sector organisation where a guy has been got rid of, but he's still on full salary while working elsewhere (for around 6 months!). Think they will actually sack him at start of new financial year. A bit like the Assembly, with loads laid off, but not actually sacked yet.

That said, Lloyds TSB used to have a pool of thousands of employees not working but 'retained' in case they were needed, so crap management in Brit private sector too! Perhaps it still does?

Edited by gruffydd

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It's not really remote. There is a ferry going regularly between Portaferry and Downpatrick . It's a lovely area overlooking Strangofrd Lough. You can drive up through Newtonards to Belfast.

It does have broadband according to this

http://www.samknows.com/broadband/broadband_checker?address=true

The roads are shite though - the Ards Peninsula has been badly damaged by bad planning in so many ways. Also, latent sectarianism all over the place there. And weather-wise, very exposed. Cloughey is one place I was warned off for reasons of sectarianism, for example. Kircubbin is better integrated than most places there. The Northern part of the peninsula is predominantly protestant, the southern part Catholic, reflecting the fact that the 17th C plantation of English, Welsh and Scottish settlers, and confiscation of Irish-held land, was more pronounced in some areas than others.

Edited by gruffydd

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It's not really remote. There is a ferry going regularly between Portaferry and Downpatrick . It's a lovely area overlooking Strangofrd Lough. You can drive up through Newtonards to Belfast.

It does have broadband according to this

http://www.samknows.com/broadband/broadband_checker?address=true

I had used samknows and postcode BT22 1HN - no broadband, nearest exchange Kircubbin 6.5 km away

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I am seeing major falls in rural Wales already - have already seen 30-40% off on some properties.

Btw, MT, I know one Welsh public sector organisation where a guy has been got rid of, but he's still on full salary while working elsewhere (for around 6 months!). Think they will actually sack him at start of new financial year. A bit like the Assembly, with loads laid off, but not actually sacked yet.

That said, Lloyds TSB used to have a pool of thousands of employees not working but 'retained' in case they were needed, so crap management in Brit private sector too! Perhaps it still does?

I looked at a dozen houses in Swansea this week between 200K and 320K asking. The cheapest was 208K and had been modernised inside in a very good way but was on a busy road and a tny 3 bed semi.

The others were all more expensive and were all completely knackered on the inside - all needing a minimum of 50K, probably more, on making them liveable in.

I was talking with a friend this morning who is also house hunting, having moved down from Kent, and she can't believe how rubbish but how expensive the asking prices are.

So when I hear of RB's house I look on with envy.

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Kent is generally cheaper than where I am in West Wales, as are parts of East Sussex. More Jobs, More vibrant. Better weather too! And within commuting distance of London. Kent's not a bad place to be really. Nor is Saltdean for that matter (;-) RB).

I am seriously thinking of moving down there. Have already started getting EA info sent through. How the F*** is Wales so over-priced! I am travelling abroad more and more too, so need to be near Gatwick/Heathrow/Stansted.

Edited by gruffydd

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Kent is generally cheaper than where I am in West Wales, as are parts of East Sussex. More Jobs, More vibrant. Better weather too! And within commuting distance of London. Kent's not a bad place to be really. Nor is Saltdean for that matter (;-) RB).

I am seriously thinking of moving down there. Have already started getting EA info sent through. How the F*** is Wales so over-priced! I am travelling abroad more and more too, so need to be near Gatwick/Heathrow/Stansted.

What you say is illogical - more jobs in Kent/East Sussex, commutable to London so big salaries possible... and yet house prices are more expensive in West Wales.

Just shows the public sector madness. A couple, both in the public sector in Wales, could easily bring in 80K or even 100K between them.

A friend in London today told me that Wales was bad karma for me. Said I should get out. Perhaps you and I should go buy a house together and do a UK version of 2 and half men... but with Kelly Brook.

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What you say is illogical - more jobs in Kent/East Sussex, commutable to London so big salaries possible... and yet house prices are more expensive in West Wales.

Just shows the public sector madness. A couple, both in the public sector in Wales, could easily bring in 80K or even 100K between them.

A friend in London today told me that Wales was bad karma for me. Said I should get out. Perhaps you and I should go buy a house together and do a UK version of 2 and half men... but with Kelly Brook.

LOL :lol::lol: What did they mean bad karma?

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LOL :lol::lol: What did they mean bad karma?

I wondered as well. He feels that I don't fit in with the mindset and as a result it had harmed my career and my happiness... and health.

Edit:

I just did a search on Rightmove for houses within 5 miles of Brighton. I felt like weeping.

I have heard numerous people in Swansea in recent months wonder why they can get better quality housing for the same price or less in places like Oxfordshire, Sussex and Somerset.

Edited by The Masked Tulip

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Yeah, kind of swimming against the tide. I know the feeling. ;) I am getting out this year. I am working with the Assembly at the moment and most of the time I feel like screaming.

Edited by gruffydd

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Yeah, kind of swimming against the tide. I know the feeling. ;) I am getting out this year. I am working with the Assembly at the moment and most of the time I feel like screaming.

Yes, swimming against the tide is an apt way to describe it.

So people have been made redundant at the Assembly but are still working? How bizarre. They probably will go, if they go, with big packages.

There was a letter sent to the Western Mail this week reportedly from 6 senior managers in the Assembly complaining about the quality of the AMs.

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Just shows the public sector madness. A couple, both in the public sector in Wales, could easily bring in 80K or even 100K between them.

while also actually being not very bright - necessary driver for HPI, uncritical unintelligent people with artificially inflated house-buying power

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It seems that way but when I moved to NI in 2006 houses were going up in price exponentially. There was a frenzy as people bid up houses and this one would have been priced at closer to 500K then. Today is a different matter. What economic activity does Wales have at above average wages to support high house prices? Is there a lot of public sector like NI?

If it can happen in NI then the drops can happen in any area reliant on public sector wages.

I remember this too. I was in Dubin at the time and the NI housing market just went mad overnight. All the clever Southern Irish were helping by buying up the stock. I wonder how that worked out for them? :lol:

I don't really think it matters whether this happens on the mainland or not. With all the other turmoil going on houses are not going anywhere. I wouldn't rule out a massive shock to the system that wipes 50% of British house prices though. Nobody can second guess the future. The misery in Japan just shows you how quickly life can change. The economy and banking system are so fragile in Britain. Just one terrorist attack is enough to destroy and confidence left. Bankrupt countries don't support ridiculous house prices.

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According to the last Land Reg data, Wales was leading the way in Britain in YoY falls...?

Yes, I keep reading this. But I don't see it.

A friend sold his house in Cardiff last month. Only had it on the market for 3 months. Couple offered 40K less than asking price originally. Declined, so a fortnight later they came back with full asking price.

What appears to be happening is that anything up to 250K sells but once you get over that then it slows down considerably and the 300K, 400K, 500K to 1.5 millionK just appear to sit there for months and years.

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What you say is illogical - more jobs in Kent/East Sussex, commutable to London so big salaries possible... and yet house prices are more expensive in West Wales.

Just shows the public sector madness. A couple, both in the public sector in Wales, could easily bring in 80K or even 100K between them.

A friend in London today told me that Wales was bad karma for me. Said I should get out. Perhaps you and I should go buy a house together and do a UK version of 2 and half men... but with Kelly Brook.

I started a thread once suggesting that a lot of the bubble behaviour and jumbo borrowing was actually concentrated in public sector housing punters - general lack of exposure to the real economy, not a care about redundancy or job security, pension entitlements and a general detachment from a lot of basic economic realities allowed this group in particular to believe that any temporarily affordable loan was all fine and dandy. In fact I was lambasted for doing so by some.

When you look at the Welsh and Scottish bubbles it still makes sense to me.

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I started a thread once suggesting that a lot of the bubble behaviour and jumbo borrowing was actually concentrated in public sector housing punters - general lack of exposure to the real economy, not a care about redundancy or job security, pension entitlements and a general detachment from a lot of basic economic realities allowed this group in particular to believe that any temporarily affordable loan was all fine and dandy. In fact I was lambasted for doing so by some.

When you look at the Welsh and Scottish bubbles it still makes sense to me.

I fully agree. I think you have to add the 1997 Labour Government to that. I began working outside of Wales in early 1997 because there was so little work in Wales.

What I did not appreciate was that just as I began working elsewhere Wales was about to undergo a gold mine regarding public sector jobs and salaries.

Large numbers of people suddenly found they had jobs and well paying ones at that. It was like winning the lotto as many of them would be working within a 5 mile commute - heck, I know numerous people who would quite public sector jobs in the Labour years if they were asked to commute over 5 miles.

I know of one department that threatened strike en masse because they were expected to move from their old offices to new ones just 1 mile down the road.

So these people had safe secure jobs many of them with little stress just a few miles from home. Lots of cash and the prospects of a nice pension. Times that by 2 for a couple and, yes, you can see why house prices boomed in Wales, Scotland and other public sector areas.

I did a Rightmove search of East Sussex last night to see what kind of house RB can get for his money. I felt like crying - prices are clearly, according to propertybee, dropping considerably in the Brighton area but then Brighton is predominantly a private sector community comprised of large numbers of those who work in the private sector in London and the Sussex areas.

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  • 285 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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