I've Just Placed £10 On Mpc Raising Rates To 0.75%

[feed]

You answered your own question. Someone who backed it at 1.04 or better...

Sure, but seriously it's mickey mouse money.

If it was a few 100's at 1.04 to 1.03 I could figure it. Total market is 8k, why bother.

[blobloblob]

They take 5% of your winnings, so a net 1.9% return for tying your money up for a month (At a guess, no idea when the next MPC meeting is)

Of course, with a deposit account, you don't lose your money if they raise or cut rates.......

It's a moot point whether the BoE is more likely to change rates than HBOS is to go bang!

[JimDiGritz]

Over at Betfair there's £2 available at 29/1 on rates being .75% or higher after the December MPC meeting.

Should you think they're going to cut, then £4 is available at 54/1

A hold? 1/55 :-(

Betfair it is. It dropped to 1/36 moments after I placed the bet.

It is a rise to 0.75 between Decembers MPC meeting and January's.

Game on.

[Harry Monk]

Betfair it is. It dropped to 1/36 moments after I placed the bet.

It is a rise to 0.75 between Decembers MPC meeting and January's.

Game on.

Someone post a link to a bookie taking online bets, then we can all put a small bet on. Just a pound will do.

As these bets come in the odds offered will automatically become shorter which will lead to an interest rate rise becoming a self-fulfilling prophesy.

[Executive Sadman]

Interesting.

I think theyll eventually raise rates when the seas are calm so to speak to make it look like the 'recovery is locked in' rather than 'oh shit, hyperinflation, we need to save sterling'

[JimDiGritz]

Someone post a link to a bookie taking online bets, then we can all put a small bet on. Just a pound will do.

As these bets come in the odds offered will automatically become shorter which will lead to an interest rate rise becoming a self-fulfilling prophesy.

I didn't post a link because for some reason Betfair's site doesn't have deeplinking - ie you cant grab a page specific URL... maybe I'm missing something..

If you go to www.betfair.com and click on Sports, then enter MPC in the Search box, it will bring up Financial Bets > Interest Rates > MPC > MPC December

Current odds are 29/1 for a 0.75% rate after Decembers MPC meeting and before January's.

I'm starting to see normally doveish MPC members such as Paul Tucker state:

"We can only continue to support the recovery of demand and activity in the U.K. economy if we maintain the credibility of our commitment to our 2 percent target,” Tucker said. “That commitment is not in doubt whatsoever.”

Bloomberg link

It is probably nothing, but I'm sensing that they are starting to gain traction after a 3 way split in November and are preparing the ground by issuing these sorts of statements.

[fluffy666]

I've got a feeling in my waters that a token rate rise is on the cards.

If Tucker listens to Sentance I think that there is a chance the rest of the MPC (well excluding the usual suspects) might agree to a small 250pip increase in the base rate to send a message to the markets that we are handling our business whilst Ireland and the PIIGS collapse.

On the other hand I fully expect never to see that tenner again.

Anyone else taking a punt on the MPC decision?

£130k says no..

[Harry Monk]

Back in 2007, I repeatedly offered Sibley a £1000 bet that house prices would be lower in three month's time than at the present time. He repeatedly refused the wager, after which house prices went up by several thousand pounds. So he was right and I was wrong.

Still, never mind, eh?

[hedgefunded]

Some people on here obviously understand how Betfair works, while others don't.

To those that do, please ignore the next bit.

Betfair isn't like a traditional bookmakers. They aren't risking their money. They merely match bets between customers.

Some markets, like a big footy match have tens of thousands of pounds being matched.

For example, I might offer even money (2.0 on Betfair) that Liverpool will beat Spurs. Someone else might wish to take that bet.

The bet will be matched, one of us will win, and the winner pays 5% commission to Betfair. (Some people pay 20% but let's not go there)

When the person mentioned earlier about the odds moving just after they places their bet, it was because they'd been matched with all of the money being offered at a particular price.

When that money has gone, the price you can bet at becomes the next best available. Hence the immediate change.

In a nutshell, Betfair (and an other 'Betting Exchanges') work differently, and until you understand what's going on it's best to try and learn.

You can't lose more than you deposit (other than on their spreads markets I think), but it's easy to get confused.

Obviously there's lots of help on the site, but I just wanted to make it clear to anyone nipping over to Betfair for the first time that a little time spent learning is in order.

[JimDiGritz]

Some people on here obviously understand how Betfair works, while others don't.

To those that do, please ignore the next bit.

Betfair isn't like a traditional bookmakers. They aren't risking their money. They merely match bets between customers.

Some markets, like a big footy match have tens of thousands of pounds being matched.

For example, I might offer even money (2.0 on Betfair) that Liverpool will beat Spurs. Someone else might wish to take that bet.

The bet will be matched, one of us will win, and the winner pays 5% commission to Betfair. (Some people pay 20% but let's not go there)

When the person mentioned earlier about the odds moving just after they places their bet, it was because they'd been matched with all of the money being offered at a particular price.

When that money has gone, the price you can bet at becomes the next best available. Hence the immediate change.

In a nutshell, Betfair (and an other 'Betting Exchanges') work differently, and until you understand what's going on it's best to try and learn.

You can't lose more than you deposit (other than on their spreads markets I think), but it's easy to get confused.

Obviously there's lots of help on the site, but I just wanted to make it clear to anyone nipping over to Betfair for the first time that a little time spent learning is in order.

Exactly, they have created a very efficient price discovery mechanism.

[caparn]

How did you manage to tan your head like that?

[Once in a lifetime]

I've got a feeling in my waters that a token rate rise is on the cards.

If Tucker listens to Sentance I think that there is a chance the rest of the MPC (well excluding the usual suspects) might agree to a small 250pip increase in the base rate to send a message to the markets that we are handling our business whilst Ireland and the PIIGS collapse.

On the other hand I fully expect never to see that tenner again.

Anyone else taking a punt on the MPC decision?

bwahahahahahahaha...

[Democorruptcy]

Some people on here obviously understand how Betfair works, while others don't.

To those that do, please ignore the next bit.

Betfair isn't like a traditional bookmakers. They aren't risking their money. They merely match bets between customers.

Some markets, like a big footy match have tens of thousands of pounds being matched.

For example, I might offer even money (2.0 on Betfair) that Liverpool will beat Spurs. Someone else might wish to take that bet.

The bet will be matched, one of us will win, and the winner pays 5% commission to Betfair. (Some people pay 20% but let's not go there)

When the person mentioned earlier about the odds moving just after they places their bet, it was because they'd been matched with all of the money being offered at a particular price.

When that money has gone, the price you can bet at becomes the next best available. Hence the immediate change.

In a nutshell, Betfair (and an other 'Betting Exchanges') work differently, and until you understand what's going on it's best to try and learn.

You can't lose more than you deposit (other than on their spreads markets I think), but it's easy to get confused.

Obviously there's lots of help on the site, but I just wanted to make it clear to anyone nipping over to Betfair for the first time that a little time spent learning is in order.

You might like to mention the other difference between Betfair and bookies - COMMISSION!

There is none at bookies put £100 on at 2/1 (3.0) and you collect £300

At Betfair put £100 on at 3.00 (2/1) and you collect £290 after paying 5% commission on your £200 profit.

If you are a regular winner but long term haven't paid at least 20% commission on all that you have won - you will then start paying Premium Charge on your winnings. This is 20% so £100 at 3.0 in effect returns £260

[Reluctant Heretic]

I bet a crate of wine with my cousin that interest rates would rise above 1% by Christmas, mind you this was around April. I don't mind his smug gloating - nice guy.

[the_duke_of_hazzard]

The BoE will raise rates when the bond markets start to move against them. Why would they bother otherwise?

[JimDiGritz]

The BoE will raise rates when the bond markets start to move against them. Why would they bother otherwise?

I agree, but I think that there is more than a 2.5% implied probability that the BOE will make a pre-emptive strike hence why a 40-1 bet is worth a punt.

[nohpc]

The BoE will raise rates when the bond markets start to move against them. Why would they bother otherwise?

Why would they though? Greece and Ireland Bond rates are approx 10% and their base rate is still the eurozone 1%.

Just pointing out that bond rates and base rates aren't necessarily linked.

[neil324]

Why would they though? Greece and Ireland Bond rates are approx 10% and their base rate is still the eurozone 1%.

Just pointing out that bond rates and base rates aren't necessarily linked.

If they had their own currency it would have been crucified.

[Pent Up]

Why would they though? Greece and Ireland Bond rates are approx 10% and their base rate is still the eurozone 1%.

Just pointing out that bond rates and base rates aren't necessarily linked.

And what about germany of France bond rates? It's different there they have to consider all the economies. I'm sure if Greece or Ireland were independent they would not have 1% base rates.

[hedgefunded]

You might like to mention the other difference between Betfair and bookies - COMMISSION!

There is none at bookies put £100 on at 2/1 (3.0) and you collect £300

At Betfair put £100 on at 3.00 (2/1) and you collect £290 after paying 5% commission on your £200 profit.

If you are a regular winner but long term haven't paid at least 20% commission on all that you have won - you will then start paying Premium Charge on your winnings. This is 20% so £100 at 3.0 in effect returns £260

You clearly didn't read my post. I was very clear about Betfair's commission.

[right_freds_dead]

when is the next meeting. i might put 10k on it at those odds. i think they WILL raise.

[right_freds_dead]

no. 100k.

6 million ?

[Darkman]

I've got a feeling in my waters that a token rate rise is on the cards.

If Tucker listens to Sentance I think that there is a chance the rest of the MPC (well excluding the usual suspects) might agree to a small 250pip increase in the base rate to send a message to the markets that we are handling our business whilst Ireland and the PIIGS collapse.

On the other hand I fully expect never to see that tenner again.

Anyone else taking a punt on the MPC decision?

Interest rates only ever go down, didn't you know?

[Constable]

Er, is the OP a thick as piece of sponge?

We have deflation, if you hadn't realised.

if you don't believe me, then speak to Mervyn King.

Do not think that you know more than people who know more than you.

Stupid comment.

This was from 29th Oct 2010:

The Betfair SP (not in-play) was 999/1.

The market got it completely wrong.

It won by 9 lengths easing up.

Good luck to the OP. What are the odds on a rise to 2%?!!

Edited November 28, 2010 by Constable