Autumn Is Fast Approaching

[sam]

we are now fast approaching Autumn, from the start of this year i always believed that this was going to be a telling time for the property market.

Exceptance that property was no longer going to rise had to kick in first, along with problems within the economy and bad debt.

What do you Guys think, is it now the beggining of the slide

Sam

[FreeFall]

Didn't you know that we were going to have an autumn bounce this year? I predict YOY house prices to reverse from their downward trend and show a dramatic recovery to +30%. The average price to salary ratio will also rise again to a nice round 10x. Interest rates will drop to 1% making it never a better time to buy property.

Gordon Brown will win an international award for his prudent management of the British economy, and Tony Blair will win the politicians politician award for his dedicated commitment to truth and honesty in politics.

Kirsty Allsop will win the humanitarian of the decade award for her services to improving peoples lifestyles, and Sarah Beenie will pick up the awards for rear of the year, and Playboys "Breast mens favourite". Phil Spencer will be awarded the position of Chair of the NAEA for his services to the industry.

Average salaries will rise a staggering 300% overnight, and the rate of inflation will hover at 2% (like where else could it ever go?) Unfortunately the effect of wage inflation will be eroded due to the sharp upturn in the cost of fancy underwear caused by trading limits with China (the offending articles have now been removed from the virtual shopping basket). Clothing will be in such short supply that a new class of "clothes tourist" will emerge.

It'll happen, you mark my words...

Sorry, bad morning!

In all reality things where I live have started to slide very gradually already. I can't see this trend reversing at any time soon.

Edited August 25, 2005 by FreeFall

[Guest growl]

Didn't you know that we were going to have an autumn bounce this year?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yeh, right.

Spring is traditionally the time of year that we have an upsurge in property buying. This didn't happen. VI's have been trying to talk the market back up and now, they are going on about an Autumn bounce. Well I don't think they are fooling anyone.

It will be interesting to see how retail sales do. In the last couple of years the high street clothing retailers blamed the mild weather on not being able to shift the new autumn/winter clothing ranges. This summer retailers including people like Homebase were blaming the bad weather on the slowdown of garden furniture and equipment.

The economy is on it way down, property, manufacturing and retail. They can blame it on the weather, on interest rates, on the price of oil. But the sad fact is, that the public are trying to pay off their debt. They've spent years buying. Most people have all the big ticket purchases.

What will really interest me will be holidays in winter and how sales of luxury goods, games and toys will do leading up to Christmas. If we have bad sales then, you can forget about the property buying season of spring.

[justanewbie]

Elsewhere on the site it has been posted that mortgage approvals

have dropped, yet again, to 65K from 70K in June.

FTB content in sales has dropped to 8%.

The complete absence of a spring bounce was highly significant.

Oil prices are starting to cripple industry, as reported today.

Retail is not recovering. Consumers are not buying.

Redundancies are, slowly, rising.

Last boom/bust, it took 18 months of low sales volume before

prices dropped significantly and irrevocably.

We are 12 months into this situation now.

The past would seem to indicate that over the next 6 months or so,

we will begin to see a definite slide.

In my area (Glos) I am beginiing to see substantial price drops,

here and there, where people really want to sell.

Edited August 25, 2005 by justanewbie

[SE1]

But the sad fact is, that the public are trying to pay off their debt.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Really?

[Time to raise the rents.]

we are now fast approaching Autumn, from the start of this year i always believed that this was going to be a telling time for the property market.

Exceptance that property was no longer going to rise had to kick in first, along with problems within the economy and bad debt.

What do you Guys think, is it now the beggining of the slide

Sam

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well I'm buying before the rate cuts really start to kick in.

No time like the present IMO.

[Culpability Brown]

Sam,

The Answer is an emphatic YES!

September through to December will be the season of rapid house price declines and mark the death of the denial phase.

Christmas is going to arrive far too early for most this year but will fuel credit card spending as usual. This in turn will ensure there is no spring recovery in contradiction to the now predictable VI spin.

Enjoy - the HPC is here to stay!

Edited August 25, 2005 by Culpability Brown

[Guest growl]

One of the reasons why retail sales are low, is because much of the public have got themselves into so much debt, that something had to give. Of course there will be some who will use the recent interest rate cut as an excuse to get themselves into even more debt. But the general mood of the public is changing. Many of them are now concentrating on getting their finanes in order.

Sometimes it takes a while for the message to get through. But after speaking to some of my freinds, they are concerned about their debt levels and they are very concerned about their fuel bills come the winter. It has been noticable the lack of garden parties and barbeques that have taken place this summer. The last few summers, there were usually quite a few going in the area. You could hear music and laughter into the night.

Now its not just the weather. We have had some sunny weekends. But all you hear recently is the sound of lawnmowers. No gossip over the garden fence about their new decking, or furniture, or the latest gazebo decorations. Also a lack of hanging baskets on the porches. Its like no-one is keeping up with the Jones. In fact the Jones have packed up and left.

Also the banks did not pass on the full interest rate cut. So they did not make much difference. The CBI wanted the cut to kick start the economy, via consumer spending. But it is not happening.

They will moan for another cut. But I don't believe it is going to take place. If it does, then the BoE needs its committee sacked, and give the decision back to Gordon(who lets face it is really making it). Then he can take the blame , for what he has so far managed to wriggle out of.

[Culpability Brown]

It has been noticable the lack of garden parties and barbeques that have taken place this summer. The last few summers, there were usually quite a few going in the area. You could hear music and laughter into the night.

Now its not just the weather. We have had some sunny weekends. But all you hear recently is the sound of lawnmowers. No gossip over the garden fence about their new decking, or furniture, or the latest gazebo decorations. Also a lack of hanging baskets on the porches. Its like no-one is keeping up with the Jones. In fact the Jones have packed up and left.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Very perceptive growl. I think you're onto something.

Maybe they have nothing to talk boll** and slap each other on the back about this summer.

[Timberrrrrrrr]

It has been noticable the lack of garden parties and barbeques that have taken place this summer. The last few summers, there were usually quite a few going in the area. You could hear music and laughter into the night.

LOL - The mirthless laugh of the damned!

[Miles Shipside]

For heaven's sake keep the impending crash under your hats!

You wouldn't want the herd of sheep out there masquerading as buyers to put off buying an overpriced property would you?

A firm of estate estate agents will announce b.o.g.o.f. shortly.

(Buy one, get one free)

There is no truth in the rumour that a quoted E.A. is having its status reduced to that of"junk bond"....it has already achieved that status.

[Ritters]

Well I'm buying before the rate cuts really start to kick in.

No time like the present IMO.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Run along then

Chop chop

[homedaq]

Forget house prices, it is that time of year to get the oil tank filled up for winter. Brings tears to a glass eye.

[Guest growl]

Forget house prices, it is that time of year to get the oil tank filled up for winter. Brings tears to a glass eye.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Sounds familiar. We are all on oil tanks in the garden. For years us villagers lobbied British Gas to lay pipes. We've even sign a petition last year. To no avail.

(and I know I'm going slightly off topic with my meanderings)

But now I'm glad. Rumour has it that those of you on gas central heating, or electricity will have an increase of up to 45% on your bills. Now the oil price is effecting all of us. But I'm glad I have a tanker pulling up every six months. Because my bills are nothing like some of my freinds who live in town.

This is going to be a very cold winter for some, and I'm not just talking about the heat.

[Johnny]

And now the CBI are stating that manufacturers are firing 20,000 to 25,000 staff every three months and that doesn't include the retail sector....

We're well into the manufacturing recession now , and with the EU blockage on clothes from China, oil price hikes hence increase in transport costs, it doesn't look long before the retail sector will go into decline too.

Someone (Can't remember who) said earlier in the year once job losses go over 250,000 this year then we will start to see a knock on effect into the housing market, I don't believe we are far off this now looking at the overall job loss numbers in the last six months from all sectors, it'll probably hit just after xmas when its the final straw for a lot of retailers.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm.../25/ixcity.html

[Ignorant Steve]

Well I'm buying before the rate cuts really start to kick in.

No time like the present IMO.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You're not the only one - I've just spent the last hour looking disbelievingly at the number of sold properties on 2 agents website. Nearly everything gone.

In the previous 6 months hardly anything was sold. Looks to me as if sentiment is becoming more positive.

[Guest growl]

You're not the only one - I've just spent the last hour looking disbelievingly at the number of sold properties on 2 agents website. Nearly everything gone.

In the previous 6 months hardly anything was sold. Looks to me as if sentiment is becoming more positive.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Oh come off it.

Next time you look at all those properties with a sold sticker on them, stick your nose to the window(ie.window licking) and see if you can spot the price they went for underneath the sticker. You can sometimes make it out, and you may well be in for a nasty surprise. Sometimes the price is well below what it has been advertised at.

These properties have dropped their prices. But they are still overvalued. Wait a few years, you'll thank yourself.

[Leodhasach]

You're not the only one - I've just spent the last hour looking disbelievingly at the number of sold properties on 2 agents website. Nearly everything gone.

In the previous 6 months hardly anything was sold. Looks to me as if sentiment is becoming more positive.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm an FTB - where can I get some of this positive sentiment? It saounds like wonderful stuff! Will it increase my income so I will actually be able to afford a property?

Everyone who is able to afford to buy at the current prices already has! The most ludicrously positive sentiment in the world won't change the fact that FTB's cannot afford to buy in 95% of the country. No new customers at the bottom - no market.

[Hairlocks]

The few villages I am monitoring to buy a house are having very few sales, more houses are coming onto the market than are selling.

[Ignorant Steve]

Hawkesford

Do your own search for 4 bed property in Warwick and Leamington £450K+

Earlier in the year nothing was selling. I've been tracking in detail since April.

April to June - 1 property sold

Compare that to today.

Edited August 25, 2005 by Ignorant Steve

[Leodhasach]

Hawkesford

Do your own search for 4 bed property in Warwick and Leamington £500K+

Earlier in the year nothing was selling. I've been tracking in detail since April.

April to June - 1 property sold

Compare that to today.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

There will be ups and downs, and spurts and false troughs all the time.

This is also the other end of the market to where the trouble is - the real problem is at the bottom, where people on average wages are a gulf away from being able to buy average houses.

[Beadbo]

Its like no-one is keeping up with the Jones. In fact the Jones have packed up and left.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The Jones's have been repossessed...

[Guest growl]

The Jones's have been repossessed...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

larf larf You could be right.

[ianbeale]

we are now fast approaching Autumn, from the start of this year i always believed that this was going to be a telling time for the property market.

Exceptance that property was no longer going to rise had to kick in first, along with problems within the economy and bad debt.

What do you Guys think, is it now the beggining of the slide

Sam

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I just put some figures through the nationwide HP calc based on the good old HPC days of 89-91. Note that HPC started in q3 and accelerated in q4 (with the substantial falls over this q3 q4 period in following years). This autumn/winter is a time of deliverance for all that we believe in everything is in place - inflation, job losses, high house prices etc etc

Keep the Faith and Happy ChristmasXXX.

89q1-89q2 +4.55%

89q2-89q3 +0.86%

89q3-89q4 -2.05%

89q4-90q1 -3.1%

90q1-90q2 -1.01%

90q2-90q3 -2.94%

90q3-90q4 -4.06%

90q4-91q1 -0.68%

91q1-91q2 +1.6%

91q2-91q3 -0.93%

91q3-91q4 -2.3%

91q4-92q1 -2.7%

92q1-92q2-+0.9%

[Guest growl]

I just put some figures through the nationwide HP calc based on the good old HPC days of 89-91. Note that HPC started in q3 and accelerated in q4 (with the substantial falls over this q3 q4 period in following years). This autumn/winter is a time of deliverance for all that we believe in everything is in place - inflation, job losses, high house prices etc etc

Keep the Faith and Happy ChristmasXXX.

89q1-89q2 +4.55%

89q2-89q3 +0.86%

89q3-89q4 -2.05%

89q4-90q1 -3.1%

90q1-90q2 -1.01%

90q2-90q3 -2.94%

90q3-90q4 -4.06%

90q4-91q1 -0.68%

91q1-91q2 +1.6%

91q2-91q3 -0.93%

91q3-91q4 -2.3%

91q4-92q1 -2.7%

92q1-92q2-+0.9%

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's very interesting. Just the kind of figures we need. I wonder how closely this crash will follow it. It would be even more interesting if the webmaster could put these figures on a bar or something on the homepage. With a bar underneath of what is happening now to compare.

Or even if we had one of Dr.Bubbs graphs(I believe he had one for the 89 crash-UK). Then stick it above the graph that is already there.

Then you could see first hand when you came to the site and so could all the people who get here by acident googling HPC.