shedfish Posted October 23, 2009 Share Posted October 23, 2009 there you go, i've said it Monday 26th October 2009 = SCHWARTZ MONTAG bring it! it'll probably be Schwantz Montag.... i may not log in at all monday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woot Posted October 23, 2009 Share Posted October 23, 2009 there you go, i've said it Monday 26th October 2009 = SCHWARTZ MONTAG bring it! it'll probably be Schwantz Montag.... i may not log in at all monday Lovely... I've not seen one of these for a little while; now I've something to look forward to over the weekend. BTW on what evidence do you base your prophecy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest_chris c-t_* Posted October 23, 2009 Share Posted October 23, 2009 (edited) No Chance, pretty much anything tangible denominated in Sterling has to rise! - we just lost more than 3cents on the dollar today, and over 2cents on the euro. Edited October 23, 2009 by chris c-t Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonkers Posted October 23, 2009 Share Posted October 23, 2009 26/10 - it's as good a date as any. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
otherwayup Posted October 23, 2009 Share Posted October 23, 2009 Monday 26th October 2009 = SCHWARTZ MONTAG I hope not. The Postal strike has delayed delivery of my "bank the recent rises and stick it in a fixed interest fund" pension transfer form. Six months ago, the last 5 or 10yrs might as well have not happened. I hope it all holds up for another week or two. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest KingCharles1st Posted October 23, 2009 Share Posted October 23, 2009 there you go, i've said it Monday 26th October 2009 = SCHWARTZ MONTAG bring it! it'll probably be Schwantz Montag.... i may not log in at all monday Yep I have to agree- today was the first bloody day for months and months I didn't hear one peep out of our illustrious leader. I think a good "Bunker video" with Brown and Mandy going nuts over a spin disaster would be in order. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatdog Posted October 23, 2009 Share Posted October 23, 2009 there you go, i've said it Monday 26th October 2009 = SCHWARTZ MONTAG bring it! it'll probably be Schwantz Montag.... i may not log in at all monday Cheers, my car is having an MOT test on Monday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire Posted October 23, 2009 Share Posted October 23, 2009 Would this have anything to do with the webbot predictions for 25th October? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shedfish Posted October 23, 2009 Author Share Posted October 23, 2009 Lovely... I've not seen one of these for a little while; now I've something to look forward to over the weekend. BTW on what evidence do you base your prophecy? glad to be the brief entertainment / figure of ridicule in advance i base my prediction on nothing more than gut feeling. subsequently i've observed that Dow Transports have dislocated somewhat, and that some guy on Bloomberg reckons the S&P is a perfect rising wedge that has gazunder'd ye pointy bit, but none of this matters a hill o' higgs bosuns (bosa?) anymore, imho as chris-ct says, <perfect sense></perfect sense>.... but these are not rational times never heard of the webbot predictor. i imagine it to have Dick Bove's head on a kind of mechanical hamster wheel with shoes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger Woods? Posted October 23, 2009 Share Posted October 23, 2009 there you go, i've said it Monday 26th October 2009 = SCHWARTZ MONTAG bring it! it'll probably be Schwantz Montag.... i may not log in at all monday I think this is the first "Black Day" thread I have responded to since I have been on HPC. What happened yesterday made it very clear that things are not at all well. I'm now wondering whether Merv's recent comments on stopping QE were part of the perpetual juggle to keep the pound/markets on an even keel. Anyhow, whether it is Monday or not, I suspect that there may be a turn for the worse very soon. It all depends on whether the US figures for Q3 also look bad too. I think they are due out next week, but not 100% sure? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pick It Down Posted October 25, 2009 Share Posted October 25, 2009 I think this is the first "Black Day" thread I have responded to since I have been on HPC. What happened yesterday made it very clear that things are not at all well. I'm now wondering whether Merv's recent comments on stopping QE were part of the perpetual juggle to keep the pound/markets on an even keel. Anyhow, whether it is Monday or not, I suspect that there may be a turn for the worse very soon. It all depends on whether the US figures for Q3 also look bad too. I think they are due out next week, but not 100% sure? Next week is looking grim, I agree. The markets had assumed up to now that bad news will always lead to more QE - hence there was a very limited downside and a one-way bet. ie, things look good, so markets so up; things look bad, and we'll print/devalue the currency so markets "go up". However I think some are starting to twig that we can get bad economic news AND no more printing. Oil has hit a level where inflation will block deflation being used as a somewhat credible excuse to print up. The markets will know what inflation figures are round the corner due to the vagaries of the CPI/RPI index and will want to get out before everyone else. The pseudo crack-up boom we've seen the start of will unwind in catastrophic fashion this week. 10% off markets. in UK and US by Friday. The events of 80 years ago are irrelevant, but the media will love the coincidence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pick It Down Posted October 25, 2009 Share Posted October 25, 2009 Next week is looking grim, I agree. The markets had assumed up to now that bad news will always lead to more QE - hence there was a very limited downside and a one-way bet. ie, things look good, so markets so up; things look bad, and we'll print/devalue the currency so markets "go up". However I think some are starting to twig that we can get bad economic news AND no more printing. Oil has hit a level where inflation will block deflation being used as a somewhat credible excuse to print up. The markets will know what inflation figures are round the corner due to the vagaries of the CPI/RPI index and will want to get out before everyone else. The pseudo crack-up boom we've seen the start of will unwind in catastrophic fashion this week. 10% off markets. in UK and US by Friday. The events of 80 years ago are irrelevant, but the media will love the coincidence. Not long to wait now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParticleMan Posted October 25, 2009 Share Posted October 25, 2009 there you go, i've said it If I had to pluck a date out of the air it'd be 30th November. I don't, though, and I'm not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdman Posted October 25, 2009 Share Posted October 25, 2009 Us GDP - expected + 3% if better than expected, markets will love, Dow shoots up if worse than expected, printy printy, Dow shoots up we can't lose Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pick It Down Posted October 25, 2009 Share Posted October 25, 2009 if worse than expected, printy printy No longer, they'll not be able to print with inflation taking off; the markets will realise this starting next week The natural no-printing level of the FTSE is ~3500, we could easily be at that level by year end with inflation reported at over 3%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_w_ Posted October 25, 2009 Share Posted October 25, 2009 (edited) if worse than expected, printy printy, Dow shoots up we can't lose I think this week we might see some new irrational and deluded fears that printing won't go on forever. However I suspect this sad, unpatriotic lack of belief in the authorities' commitment to devaluation will be crushed within a few days. Edited October 25, 2009 by _w_ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shedfish Posted October 25, 2009 Author Share Posted October 25, 2009 <delurk> </relurk> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traktion Posted October 25, 2009 Share Posted October 25, 2009 Hmm... I'm starting to wonder if you are right... webbot and some rather nasty sounding news. I'm sure it will all be fine though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shedfish Posted October 26, 2009 Author Share Posted October 26, 2009 okay, there are plenty of hours left in the day here and the US.. but it does look like the HPC tradition might be preserved, and the 'black day' thread contrarian indicator preserved just off to Matalan to see if they sell hair shirts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 okay, there are plenty of hours left in the day here and the US.. but it does look like the HPC tradition might be preserved, and the 'black day' thread contrarian indicator preserved just off to Matalan to see if they sell hair shirts The sell off started 4 weeks ago. It's just that the markets don't realise it yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc_li Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 there you go, i've said it Monday 26th October 2009 = SCHWARTZ MONTAG bring it! it'll probably be Schwantz Montag.... i may not log in at all monday Asian markets close higher. European markets up 0.5%-1% Dow back up over 10k in morning trading. Good call Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ghw22 Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 Asian markets close higher. European markets up 0.5%-1% Dow back up over 10k in morning trading. Good call So what happened at 3.15? FTSE lost about 80 in short order. Not being argumentative, just curious. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Willy Weasel Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 So what happened at 3.15? FTSE lost about 80 in short order. Not being argumentative, just curious. DOW has lost a couple of hundred points from its HOD. It looks as though the PDs are having to eat a lot of Treasury issuance so that might be causing it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shedfish Posted October 26, 2009 Author Share Posted October 26, 2009 i dunno, i just popped to Ikea... did the Ikea Dance (fill the bag with tealights, bog brush, kitchen utensils and bricabrac, get a bite at the food hall, lose interest in the trolley dance at the checkout and leave the bag in a corner, knowing that it contained nothing essential) Asian markets close higher. European markets up 0.5%-1% Dow back up over 10k in morning trading. Good call it wasn't bad, was it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shedfish Posted October 26, 2009 Author Share Posted October 26, 2009 bm.tiffbm.tiff Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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