thedebtisreal Posted October 6, 2009 Share Posted October 6, 2009 (edited) They lend at what they can raise funding for. So they can borrow much more cheaply where their average portfolio is 60% LTV rather than 90% LTV. They probably can't get funding for >100% LTV. That doesn't mean that they think house prices are going to fall. No, but does it not mean that those that provide the funding do? Edited October 6, 2009 by thedebtisreal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonBrownSpentMyFuture Posted October 6, 2009 Share Posted October 6, 2009 No, but does it not mean that those that provide the funding do? Exactly. Or the possibility that there may be no funding. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Buttafueco Jr Posted October 6, 2009 Share Posted October 6, 2009 No, but does it not mean that those that provide the funding do? No, they are just doing more realistic modelling rather than assuming house prices always go up and 90% LTV is same risk as 60% LTV. So while they think the most liklely outcome be a 10% rise, they may also think that there is 10% chance of 10% falls Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wealthy Posted October 6, 2009 Share Posted October 6, 2009 Just put in my application for a Canadian Visa. While I can afford a house (in cash) I've always held the view that if HPI starts again this country is truly screwed. Unemployment rising, pay freezes, house price increases. Still an underlying fault in the system. I'm not paying to prop up the Sibleys of this world. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wealthy Posted October 6, 2009 Share Posted October 6, 2009 (edited) Double post Edited October 6, 2009 by wealthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted October 6, 2009 Share Posted October 6, 2009 This is fun now. For any bears who were muted in their public warnings of a crash back in the pre crunch era, this is a second chance. While everyone else is screaming inflation (and everyone but everyone will be when RPI picks up in the current months), we have the chance to point at the deleveraging and make the opposite call. inflation means ....interest rate hikes and a booming economy. imports are going to rise in price pretty soon, putting more people out of work. course to combat inflation they raise rates....they have no choice otherwise the imports rise further due to greater currency falls. ANd the stimulus in the rest of the world coming to an end means our exporters, usually beneficiaries in the currency fall, will have few customers. we have, a rock and a hard place scenario....in fact, nothing has changed in this since 2005. the debt IS real, no matter how much they try and hide it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonBrownSpentMyFuture Posted October 6, 2009 Share Posted October 6, 2009 Just put in my application for a Canadian Visa. While I can afford a house (in cash) I've always held the view that if HPI starts again this country is truly screwed. Unemployment rising, pay freezes, house price increases. Still an underlying fault in the system. I'm not paying to prop up the Sibleys of this world. Agreed. If house prices haven't crashed by 2011/2012 then my partner / wife-to-be and I will be emigrating to Canada too. This is our plan B. The fact I have enough points on my own and that she is Canadian shouldn't make it too difficult. If this nation doesn't rectify itself then we'll bid a sad farewell to family and friends and emigrate for a more prosperous future just as her ancestors did long ago. If I'm going to spend the rest of my life renting / paying off a huge mortgage on a fraud-inflated house price I'd rather do it in a country that isn't quite as shit as this one. The wealthy homeowners can pay off their own debt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackalope Posted October 6, 2009 Share Posted October 6, 2009 It's funny I thought we'd reached that point about 18 months ago. Y'know when the banking sector very nearly collapsed. This is one question the bulls never answer adequately. At what point does property become so expensive it kills the real economy stone dead? What % of a person's income can be stolen in interest before it renders working unviable? Never. People will just have to settle for ever smaller and shittier houses.They will pay larger proportions of their income for far worse houses than their parents did. If a hypothetical FTB can't afford a 3-bed semi they don't never buy a house they just buy a crappy little flat with cardboard walls. Affordability means nothing, there's always some dreadful little griefhole that even losers can afford. Bears just don't get it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted October 6, 2009 Share Posted October 6, 2009 Never. People will just have to settle for ever smaller and shittier houses.They will pay larger proportions of their income for far worse houses than their parents did. If a hypothetical FTB can't afford a 3-bed semi they don't never buy a house they just buy a crappy little flat with cardboard walls. Affordability means nothing, there's always some dreadful little griefhole that even losers can afford. Bears just don't get it. course they do. they also dont see the infinite pool of funds that you do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giordano Bruno Posted October 6, 2009 Share Posted October 6, 2009 we can keep saying this is down to low transactions volumes but the truth is there are people out there prepared to pay more than the previous month for a house. Sentiment must be shifting, all it will take is a major (govt owned) bank to start offering 95% mortgages and that wil be it for houseprice crash. Never underestimate the stupidy and greed of the british public when it comes to house prices I have to disagree. The bull trap will carry on and then run out of steam. Because the driving force is the belief that prices will keep going up. Yes, they will go up but they can't keep going up, not beyond a certain level of affordability. Then, slowly, painfully, it will dawn on the suckers that the upward movement has a limit. When that sinks in, really sinks in, the bubble mentality will fade away. The promise of profits or fear of 'missing the boat' will no longer be dominant. Then, slowly but surely, prices will fall.Of course, this little mechanism will probably be distorted by other factors, but it will still be in operation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kazuya Posted October 6, 2009 Share Posted October 6, 2009 I think I'll keep an eye on my local area in the Land Registry. It showed a drop of 2.7% in September and the trend is downwards although it has slowed noticeably since the ZIRP + QE March onwards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete.hpc Posted October 6, 2009 Share Posted October 6, 2009 Soon the majority. Is that carbolic soap I can smell? It must be Columbo ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the primitive Posted October 6, 2009 Share Posted October 6, 2009 Never. People will just have to settle for ever smaller and shittier houses.They will pay larger proportions of their income for far worse houses than their parents did. If a hypothetical FTB can't afford a 3-bed semi they don't never buy a house they just buy a crappy little flat with cardboard walls. Affordability means nothing, there's always some dreadful little griefhole that even losers can afford. Bears just don't get it. nice one Wait - it says you are a bull Please tell me that is "satirical" If you REALLY believe that, you (and we?) are all f*cked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mammon Posted October 6, 2009 Share Posted October 6, 2009 Just put in my application for a Canadian Visa. While I can afford a house (in cash) I've always held the view that if HPI starts again this country is truly screwed. Unemployment rising, pay freezes, house price increases. Still an underlying fault in the system. I'm not paying to prop up the Sibleys of this world. £1 used to buy 2.5 Candian dollars a few years ago. As of today £1 buys 1.6 canadian dollars. By the time your visa comes through in two or three years, £ will probably be at parity with CAD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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