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September Halifax +1.6% Mom -7.4% Yoy


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HOLA441
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HOLA442

This really is unbelievable, it looks like not even a financial crisis of epic proportions can cure the UK of its house price disease. The people are falling over themselves to pay as much as they can while the powers that be sit back and let it happen all over again, but this time with hundreds of billions of pounds and 0.5% rates behind it.

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HOLA443
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HOLA444

we can keep saying this is down to low transactions volumes but the truth is there are people out there prepared to pay more than the previous month for a house. Sentiment must be shifting, all it will take is a major (govt owned) bank to start offering 95% mortgages and that wil be it for houseprice crash.

Never underestimate the stupidy and greed of the british public when it comes to house prices :(

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HOLA445
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HOLA446

This really is unbelievable, it looks like not even a financial crisis of epic proportions can cure the UK of its house price disease. The people are falling over themselves to pay as much as they can while the powers that be sit back and let it happen all over again, but this time with hundreds of billions of pounds and 0.5% rates behind it.

My mindset has shifted recently. I have made up my mind I am not going to pay these prices, i will stay in my small house and continue to pay off my mortgage ASAP. If most people want mad HPI I can't do anything about it on my own. I don't understand it, but I'm not going to let it rule my life.

I will spend my money on other things, and have a better quality of life. And if houses get cheap again someday, well I might move then. But as for the prices now - forget it, sorry that's someone else's problem I have decided.

Feel quite good about it actually.

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HOLA447

This really is unbelievable, it looks like not even a financial crisis of epic proportions can cure the UK of its house price disease. The people are falling over themselves to pay as much as they can while the powers that be sit back and let it happen all over again, but this time with hundreds of billions of pounds and 0.5% rates behind it.

Exactly. That is the plan though, and has been all along.

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HOLA448

On the news together:

House prices up 1.6% and Tories want the retirement age up to 66 (for now)

Are people so stupid that they cannot see that higher house prices force them to work longer to divert more of their disposable income towards bank bonuses?

Eventually it will be retirement at 80 and 50 year mortgages - the people will demand it so they can be "rich" owning a house.

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HOLA449

Relax guys.

It's frustrating, but when

1. The cuts the politicians are starting to talk about start to bite.

2. Unemployment goes over 3 million and keeps rising.

3. Labour go to the IMF for money and have conditions imposed in order to get the loan (more and deeper cuts).

4. Interest rates rise. (they'll have a hard time justifying them at these levels when inflation rockets as it will soon)

then prices will fall again.

If you start hearing about wage inflation, then the nominal HPC may be over at that point.

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HOLA4410

There really is no need to panic over any of these figures over the last 6 months or so, fundamentals going forward are pretty poor, if we were in a period of falling unemployment, the economy was growing and by that I mean properly and not with borrowed money that has yet to be paid back, and IR's that were say at 5% with room to be reduced, I would be worried.

The fact is none of these are true, prices are being stimulated in certain areas on the back of low transactions and the policies that could stimulate high HPI have already been done, the government can only go one way from here on, and that way is not good for prices.

So relax, keep saving.

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HOLA4411

There were a lot of articles in response to Nationwides figures last week , if you are interested I have linked quite a few HERE

The BBC economics editor said:

.....Nationwide thinks a lot of people have become "accidental landlords": with interest rates so low, they've been able to buy a new place but rent their old home, rather than selling outright. The authors say the resulting increase in the stock of rental properties explains why house prices have been rising for five months now - while, if anything, rents are now lower than they were last year. The signs are that this stock of rental properties is now starting to fall off. If that happens, they think prices could go down again.

But that's the short-term dynamic. The more fundamental reason why prices might start falling again is that, by most measures, they are still significantly over-valued.

That's the IMF's conclusion in its latest World Economic Outlook, out yesterday. It says the typical housing boom lasts six years and sees house prices in real terms go up by about 50%. Downturns last five years, during which time house prices in real terms fall about 24%.

..... prices in the UK, Spain and Denmark all probably have quite a long way further to fall - in the UK's case, maybe another 12-13% in real terms. Whereas the US and Germany are probably close to the bottom. Remember this is about house prices in real terms, after inflation. You could get that 12% real decline if prices stayed flat for a while - but if inflation stays this low, you're talking quite a few years.

Capital Economics have a similar analysis (see graph below). They reckon prices would need to fall by at least another 20% in nominal terms to reach fair value. And many agree.

In relation to " the IMF's conclusion in its latest World Economic Outlook, out yesterday. It says the typical housing boom lasts six years and sees house prices in real terms go up by about 50%. Downturns last five years, during which time house prices in real terms fall about 24%. " I have asked what we can expect when:

Taking the Nationwide’s figures, the 1997 to 2007 boom saw prices rise by 147 per cent in real terms. Within that, prices rose 76 per cent between 2001 and 2007

I note in todays HPI Halifax said:

The combination of increased demand and a low level of properties available for sale has pushed up house prices in recent months. The marked improvement in affordability due to the reduction in both property prices and interest rates since mid 2007 has been a key factor in stimulating higher demand.

Is that saying that property prices falling has been the reason that property prices are going up?

Continuing increases in unemployment and low earnings growth are likely to constrain the rise in demand. There are also some signs that the improvement in market conditions is encouraging more people to put their properties up for sale. This development could loosen market conditions by alleviating the current shortage of supply and curb the pace of house price growth evident in recent months."

Ah that's the bit that we need to see some bearish articles generated from as we did in relation to Nationwide's HPI last week.

Contraints in demand + constraints in lending + more properties for sale because people believe their properties are back to 2007 values EQUALS a W shaped recovery and the end of the bull trap.

The national average price is currently at a similar level to that in mid 2005.

Oh dear didn't all the papers last week say it was back to 2008 ?

Makes you wonder if those articles I linked on the thread above might have some substance!

Especially in the light of this bit in Halifax's HPI:

The ratio of house sales to the stock of unsold properties on surveyors' book rose for the eighth successive month in August, indicating a tightening in market conditions, according to the latest RICS monthly survey.

BUT ALSO PERHAPS INDICATING THAT BUYERS ARE NO INTERESTED IN OVERVALUED PROPERTY THAT IS ON THE WAY DOWN!!!

E-poll at Times Online Here is currently showing that 82.7% of people voting believe house prices have further to fall

Perhaps they read this Citywire Article Here

....to compare anything to two years ago is lunacy, given that it was the housing market at its maddest.....In fact, I would go so far as to say that 2007 was a bubble within a bubble, like the last days of Rome. Indeed, whenever I hear any estate agent/ lender/ journalist crow that prices have returned to 2007 levels, I wonder exactly what they were doing in those crazy days, or what they had had for breakfast that morning.

Second, I’m not even sure most houses have come down 20% – at least here in London they haven’t. There is currently something of a deadlock between buyers and sellers.......Finally, and perhaps most obviously: HOUSE PRICES ARE STILL WAY TOO HIGH!!

Sorry for the capitals and exclamation marks, but it’s a message that just doesn’t seem to get through to some people.

By any reasonable historical measure, apart from those that factor in wafer-thin interest rates until the end of time, house prices are still stratospherically high.

Still if Halifax says house prices are on the way back up perhaps they will stop valuing them 35% below peak

Or do you think they are simply being realistic with regards how much properties are actually worth if anyone was interested in actually selling them to someone who needs a mortgage and a valuation in TODAYS market?

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HOLA4412
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HOLA4413

So say this does increase supply what then for house prices? I dont think they will come down now for a while, there is an election coming and britain needs the feel good factor back. Nevermind that a whole generation has been priced out and we will all be paying back the debt this labour govt has created for years

Skynews is running this as a banner on their channel along with the increase in car sales (purely down to the scrappage allowance - which suprise suprise has been extended), all good economic news. The media are in full swing

If labour lose the election then the tories will be vilified for making cuts to pay back our debt. If labour manage to convince eveyone we are in recovery and stay in, they will just try and keep the party going. The question is at what point do interest rates go up and when do they stop printing money?

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HOLA4414
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HOLA4415

Am I the only home owner in the country who realises my house is worth feck all until someone buys it?!?

Am I the only one who thinks these prices are being kept artificially high in the short term so they come crashing down in the medium to long term? (i.e. when the Tories take power).

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HOLA4416

we can keep saying this is down to low transactions volumes but the truth is there are people out there prepared to pay more than the previous month for a house. Sentiment must be shifting, all it will take is a major (govt owned) bank to start offering 95% mortgages and that wil be it for houseprice crash.

Never underestimate the stupidy and greed of the british public when it comes to house prices :(

But also worth considering Why Property Prices Have Further to Fall

.....although there's been a big brouhaha about the latest HSBC 1.99% home loan offer, don't expect many other lenders to follow suit. A lot of lending power has now left the market for good. Almost £300bn of UK mortgage debt was securitised, i.e. packaged up and sold off from bank balance sheets onto the bond markets, between 2005 and 2007.

"That represents more than 90% of the growth in mortgage debt over that period", says CreditSights. And "the world isn't exactly clamouring for British securitised mortgages anymore, and won't be for a long time", says Matthew Lynn on Bloomberg. "With less money coming into the market, there won't be the same kind of demand for houses".

Yet a Rightmove survey at the end of August gave the "encouraging" signal that 78% of respondents reckoned UK house prices won't fall any further this year. And also that "the UK property industry is now seeing a virtuous circle of confidence building upon confidence".

Why's this another worry? Well, as Fidelity's Anthony Bolton explained in the weekend's FT about the stock market, "if everyone is positioned for the market to rise, it means these bullish expectations are already discounted" – i.e. factored into the price. As a result, "the market often moves to make the majority wrong and does the unexpected… so at turning points especially, the correct is the minority view".

And while there are plenty of differences between shares and houses, the principles of crowd behaviour are the same for every asset class. When almost everyone is bullish, get ready for a price fall. The near-8.5% bounce in property prices within the last six months (using Nationwide's figures at least) now looks ripe for a reversal.

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HOLA4417

Now on bbc as well..

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8292156.stm

More good news. Prices increasing in bad times, so just wait until the recovery kicks in.

I can't get this old song out of my head :lol:.

It's Good News Week Lyrics

musician: Hedghoppers Anonymous

It's good news week,

Someone's dropped a bomb somewhere,

Contaminating atmosphere

And blackening the sky,

It's good news week,

Someones found a way to give,

The rotting dead a will to live,

Go on and never die.

Have you heard the news?

What did it say?

Who's won that race?

What's the weather like today?

It's good news week,

Families shake the need for gold,

By stimulating birth control,

We're wanting less to eat.

It's good news week,

Doctors finding many ways,

Of wrapping brains in metal trays,

To keep us from the heat.

It's good news week,

Someone's dropped a bomb somewhere,

Contaminating atmosphere

And blackening the sky,

It's good news week,

Someones found a way to give,

The rotting dead a will to live,

Go on and never die.

Have you heard the news?

What did it say?

Who's won that race?

What's the weather like today?

(what's the weather like today?)

It's good news week,

Families shake the need for gold,

By stimulating birth control,

We're wanting less to eat.

It's good news week,

Doctors finding many ways,

Of wrapping brains in metal trays,

To keep us from the heat.

To keep us from the heat.

To keep us from the heat.

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HOLA4418

On the news together:

House prices up 1.6% and Tories want the retirement age up to 66 (for now)

Are people so stupid that they cannot see that higher house prices force them to work longer to divert more of their disposable income towards bank bonuses?

Eventually it will be retirement at 80 and 50 year mortgages - the people will demand it so they can be "rich" owning a house.

People are not stupid - they are being forced to buy inflated property because the government is allowing the banksters to lend massive amounts of money to them.

Some say that we have an option - the truth is that you have an option to rent or to buy - but renting is seriously dodgy in this country and how long do you have to put your life (wife, kids, stability etc) on hold for a correction - so far 10 years and counting. People have a gun to their head - the gun is getting bigger as we speak - on the one side we have HPI on the other the threat of big inflation and as near ZIRP on savings as make any difference.

This government has inflated all essentials - food, shelter, heating they have yet to get round to selling us our own air but its just a matter of time.

Its a big hamster wheel and the gov can up our work rate by getting us more into debt - at the same time they debase the currency.

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HOLA4419
19
HOLA4420

As I've mentioned previously;

Why is no-one in the media highlighting the fact that, not only has Gordon managed to stop the HPC in it's tracks by printing money from all our futures, but he's actually managed to kick-off another dangerous acceleration in HPI of boom-like proportions. The same speed of HPI that brought the world's banking systems to collapse.

And this completely ignores the harmful personal social and financial issues this causes that are well discussed on here.

Interest rates up NOW.

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HOLA4421

Perhaps they read this Citywire Article Here

Well I can say I definitely agree with this part of that Citiwire article...

Finally, and perhaps most obviously: HOUSE PRICES ARE STILL WAY TOO HIGH!!

Sorry for the capitals and exclamation marks, but it’s a message that just doesn’t seem to get through to some people.

And I agree with what some others here have said, in that it is unlikely we will see house prices go down now (in the official figures anyway) until after the general election.

To quote the governments favourite phrase they will "do what it takes".

I do wonder though, what is going on with prices on repossessions that are not included in the official figures? :unsure:

I recall a recent thread here linking to an article saying properties in auctions were having to sell at lower prices now than they were.

There is no way I would buy now though, the bigger the hpi now, the bigger the hpc after, imo.

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HOLA4422

On the news together:

House prices up 1.6% and Tories want the retirement age up to 66 (for now)

Are people so stupid that they cannot see that higher house prices force them to work longer to divert more of their disposable income towards bank bonuses?

Eventually it will be retirement at 80 and 50 year mortgages - the people will demand it so they can be "rich" owning a house.

I think you are attempting to link the un-linkable. We are living longer, simple.

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HOLA4423

Now on bbc as well..

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8292156.stm

More good news. Prices increasing in bad times, so just wait until the recovery kicks in.

yep, they'll all be 9 times earnings in the end, and we'll all be very happy and rich.

Have you ever wondered whether there's a limit to what people will be able to afford?

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HOLA4424

As I've mentioned previously;

Why is no-one in the media highlighting the fact that, not only has Gordon managed to stop the HPC in it's tracks by printing money from all our futures, but he's actually managed to kick-off another dangerous acceleration in HPI of boom-like proportions. The same speed of HPI that brought the world's banking systems to collapse.

And this completely ignores the harmful personal social and financial issues this causes that are well discussed on here.

Interest rates up NOW.

The media are like the three monkeys - they never see, hear or speak about the elephants in the room.

What is happening now in the housing market (and the stock market) is sickening beyond belief. The system is rigged, some of the savvy traders know that, they are playing the game and making money on the inevitable wild gyrations that have happened and the ones that are about to happen. This is looking like a repeat of the great depression where intervention is providing false signals and this is leading to volatility.

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HOLA4425

yep, they'll all be 9 times earnings in the end, and we'll all be very happy and rich.

Have you ever wondered whether there's a limit to what people will be able to afford?

It's funny I thought we'd reached that point about 18 months ago. Y'know when the banking sector very nearly collapsed. This is one question the bulls never answer adequately. At what point does property become so expensive it kills the real economy stone dead? What % of a person's income can be stolen in interest before it renders working unviable?

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