It's All Over Guys - Time To Call It A Day

[roy?]

It's not a good post because there is nothing in it that suggests the problems are all over. Though I do not think prices will crash by another 25% + as some people are professing, I do feel however, that by the middle of December 2010, prices will be lower than they are now.

I've always said that the snake in the grass is interest rates. This will determine whether an already fragile owner turns from ‘reluctant landlords' who dig their heels in and let, to distressed landlords who HAVE to sell or have their units repossessed. Likewise the average home- owner occupier.

Also, unless First time buyers re-enter, there will not be a healthy market. They will only enter when the correction is full and complete. Then, and only then, will banks deviate from their caution of modest LTV deals.

At the moment, the UK housing industry is caught between a rock and hard place. Nothing spectacular is happening. Prices are not really falling significantly enough for serious activity and they are not increasing by any real amount to call a proper botton.

It will probably be 18-24 months of a drawn out correction, before a new boom begins. This is how it has always worked in England.

We will be here again in 15 years. This is the UK, where there is an over reliance on fiat currency and the service sector.

People never learn.

[Grime- skint wouldbe ftb]

You keep telling yourself that.

Of course if you don't want to read anything contrary to what you want to believe, don't come on here. Simple.

Or does the existence of this website bug you?

THE HIVE MIND OF SHEEPLE-THINKERS CAN NOT TOLERATE OPPOSING VIEWS!! DO NOT WRITE ANY VIEWS THAT DISAGREE WITH ME!!! I AM RIGHT!!! I CAN PREDICT THE FUTURE!!! IT IS ALL VERY SIMPLE, BLACK&WHITE, CLEAR CUT!! NO ROOM FOR OTHER OPINIONS!! THIS WEBSITE EXISTS BECAUSE HOUSE PRICES CRASH!!! IT IS NOT A SUBJECT FOR DEBATE!!

[Guest anorthosite]

THE HIVE MIND OF SHEEPLE-THINKERS CAN NOT TOLERATE OPPOSING VIEWS!! DO NOT WRITE ANY VIEWS THAT DISAGREE WITH ME!!! I AM RIGHT!!! I CAN PREDICT THE FUTURE!!! IT IS ALL VERY SIMPLE, BLACK&WHITE, CLEAR CUT!! NO ROOM FOR OTHER OPINIONS!! THIS WEBSITE EXISTS BECAUSE HOUSE PRICES CRASH!!! IT IS NOT A SUBJECT FOR DEBATE!!

Do we have a Bruno v2.0 here?

[ingermany]

Come again?

Yes, the indices are moving up. The banks have been handed bags of taxpayers' money and told to lend it indiscriminately in larger income multiples and increased LTVs. The government will pay off the defaults. "Mortgage rationing" has been declared illegal along with repossession. With so much money being thrown at the market there won't be a crash. At least not until the nation has been brought to it's knees. I have no idea how long it will take to wipe us out, but until then I expect to see more smug posts about booming house prices. There's no point in denying the current trend.

[cybernoid]

So what is a rational response to all this? Over extend yourself to buy? Continue renting? Until when? Emigrate? Where to?

[Laura]

Yes, the indices are moving up. The banks have been handed bags of taxpayers' money and told to lend it indiscriminately in larger income multiples and increased LTVs. The government will pay off the defaults. "Mortgage rationing" has been declared illegal along with repossession. With so much money being thrown at the market there won't be a crash. At least not until the nation has been brought to it's knees. I have no idea how long it will take to wipe us out, but until then I expect to see more smug posts about booming house prices. There's no point in denying the current trend.

Truly sorry 'ingermany', yes of course, silly of me to have missed the sparkling tongue-in-cheek essence of your post.

This is the same magical vein that the great leader created so that rising unemployment automatically creates rising house prices is it not?

I don't think this astonishing NuLabour achievement is being given the credit (sorry) it deserves

[dunedin]

So what is a rational response to all this? Over extend yourself to buy? Continue renting? Until when? Emigrate? Where to?

This is an interesting point and the " Continue Renting ? bit is the bit that is worrying me There is a few problems over the horizon there are no new stock to rent being built, BTL is finished for new btl landlords, lots of the existing BTL Is being repossesed all the while there are no 1st time buyers as deposits required are too high, also existing home owners who are repossesed are also having to rent.

My conclusion is the availability of rented accomodation will diminish as more and more people rent this could lead to a rent price Bubble with not enough supply and too many renters landlords will increase rents causing a bubble.

[Grime- skint wouldbe ftb]

Do we have a Bruno v2.0 here?

So anyone who tries to remind you it pays to keep an open mind, and realise that your assumptions and predictions are merely educated guesses, is a "Bruno"?

Oh well.

[SMAC67]

So anyone who tries to remind you it pays to keep an open mind, and realise that your assumptions and predictions are merely educated guesses, is a "Bruno"?

Oh well.

Open mind my a**e, I prefer data of the mathematical variety, not wishful thinking.

[Grime- skint wouldbe ftb]

Open mind my a**e, I prefer data of the mathematical variety, not wishful thinking.

Well you stick with your "mathematical data" if its telling you what you want to hear.

I give up.

[zebbedee]

I'm really enjoying this-using some spare cash on the stock market to try and grab myself some of that Qe cash before we all have to pay for it (whilst hoping I get out with a profit before the certain fall) and lovingly adoring the shiny stuff whilst watching home owners^*/EA's/labour activists/BTLers trying to convince me that the fundementals are wrong and debt truely is wealth. The OP is right, it is time to call it a day and it is all over. The bulls don't seem to get that in a global economy when the worlds largest consumer is doing well then everyone does well but when they are printing thier way to disaster and you're printing along side them there can only be one outcome (not good). Whether that is through inflationary default or deflationary nightmare is still to be decided but house prices in the uk have a way down to go yet.

* read - people who rent from the bank

I'd really like to turn a profit on the shares and bugger off into a foreign curency account but don't know enough about the forex markets to know which is best (or least worst), so any suggestion welcome.

Edited September 19, 2009 by zebbedee

[symo]

I doubt this will allowed to be posted due to the 'regulation' that we're not allowed to post anything positive, but here goes anyway:

Clearly we're out of the woods now regarding any form of house price crash.

I've seen you desperately trying to find scraps of bad news and posting the links in here with obligatory comments suggesting something bad is about to happen, but it's time to face facts once and for all.

You all seem to have forgotten that house prices have been falling since November 2007, to March 2009. Seventeen months of losses and still you think there's more to come, a second crash of epic proportions is just around the corner.

Well it's not.

Posting forecasts, figures and predictions of catastrophe based on nothing more than events you've made up out of your own heads and opening admitting your actually 'pissed off' that the stock market has picked up makes you look like, in all honestly, like a bunch of malicious vultures.

You hang your hat mainly on the fact the unemployment is still rising. That's about the only factual argument you have left in a world where there's a new news story every day depicting a rosier future for the world economy.

Unemployment will rise for a while yet and here's why - people laid off after years getting a whacking great payout and can afford (and deservedly so) a long break from work. They're all resting on their fat payouts before looking for work again. Firms aren't hiring yet because they can make more profit with the reduced overhead for a while, but that won't last. They'll start hiring again like mad when things pick up in a month or two to level they can't cope with. Some people are still being made redundant I accept, but these are people at the end of the chain (roofers who were finishing off the stuff that others started and still had gainful employment for while, for example). Meanwhile the foundation people who laid off first are starting up business again. So it goes on.

There will be no winter of discontent. No more HPC following seventeen months of crash.

It's over. Business as usual.

Yer wrong, yer wrong, yer wrong.

Whats that ringing?

Yer wrong.

More job losses in the public sector, yer wrong.

[codeine]

But the banks aren't lending us very high income multiples any more, are they?

Sales volumes are very low; getting a loan to buy properties at current values is difficult (especially at a time when salaries are low / being frozen); no average worker is buying a house these days.

Sellers can sit on their houses all they like, all that will do is cause the market to stagnate. The sellers hope for a cash-rich buyer to come along, the buyers hope for someone, anyone to lend them the cash, neither happens.

Labour can try all they want but they can't keep prices high unless they give every buyer money to buy with.

Face it, Bulls. It's over. Looks like you're going to have to get a real job, after all.

Edited September 20, 2009 by codeine

[stew]

To the OP...

Yep, you're right, posting anti-bearish news can be 'dangerous'. You put across your argument well, but as with all 'predictions' it is just that. You may well be right. You may well be wrong. Thing is you've gotta weigh up the evidence, the stats, the indicators and make up your own mind.

I'm guessing that most on here will think differently to you. Doesn't make you wrong, but you've got to admit there is a large body of evidence that suggests there is a good chance thing could go the other way.

[OnionTerror]

How can you keep explaining this away?

http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/news/51147...NEW-OWNERS.html

THERE IS NO CRASH.

"Well done Gordon Brown for rescuing the country from the worldwide economic recession, which has hit many other countries far harder than it has us here in the UK"

Right, back to X-Factor..then off to do a robbery in my time machine.. http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/showbiz/xf...tor-judges.html

[ingermany]

Truly sorry 'ingermany', yes of course, silly of me to have missed the sparkling tongue-in-cheek essence of your post.

This is the same magical vein that the great leader created so that rising unemployment automatically creates rising house prices is it not?

I don't think this astonishing NuLabour achievement is being given the credit (sorry) it deserves

just angry really

[non frog]

How can you keep explaining this away?

http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/news/51147...NEW-OWNERS.html

......

Because the News of the World is a paper for tw@ts, contains made-up "news" tw@ts want to hear and soft porn. I am surprised that a canny investor like you would invest time reading it (or are you just having fun again - fair enough mate).

Surely you would read stuff like the FT and realise that right now is the best time to offload your investment house, trouser the dosh and move into better yielding investments?

Anyway, apologies if I missed the cues and we have reached the point at which the loonies come out and blame Gordon Brown, immigration, the EU, overpopulation and Cadburys' chocolate fingers.

Have fun.

[Guest Daddy Bear]

...........t when they are printing thier way to disaster and you're printing along side them there can only be one outcome (not good).

Whether that is through inflationary default or deflationary nightmare is still to be decided but house prices in the uk have a way down to go yet.

Inflationary Default - I think we can say that now

House Prices do have a long way to go down - BUT NOT IN NOMINAL TERMS

It will probably take 5- 10 years for equillibrium to be reached IN REAL TERMS with wages.

[Guest P-Diddly]

Inflationary Default - I think we can say that now

House Prices do have a long way to go down - BUT NOT IN NOMINAL TERMS

It will probably take 5- 10 years for equillibrium to be reached IN REAL TERMS with wages.

Yes.

Affordability is now completely out the window as it has been for 5 years plus. Two sides to the equation, the left hand side being incomes, which are collapsing.

[geneer]

I doubt this will allowed to be posted due to the 'regulation' that we're not allowed to post anything positive, but here goes anyway:

Clearly we're out of the woods now regarding any form of house price crash.

I've seen you desperately trying to find scraps of bad news and posting the links in here with obligatory comments suggesting something bad is about to happen, but it's time to face facts once and for all.

You all seem to have forgotten that house prices have been falling since November 2007, to March 2009. Seventeen months of losses and still you think there's more to come, a second crash of epic proportions is just around the corner.

Well it's not.

Posting forecasts, figures and predictions of catastrophe based on nothing more than events you've made up out of your own heads and opening admitting your actually 'pissed off' that the stock market has picked up makes you look like, in all honestly, like a bunch of malicious vultures.

You hang your hat mainly on the fact the unemployment is still rising. That's about the only factual argument you have left in a world where there's a new news story every day depicting a rosier future for the world economy.

Unemployment will rise for a while yet and here's why - people laid off after years getting a whacking great payout and can afford (and deservedly so) a long break from work. They're all resting on their fat payouts before looking for work again. Firms aren't hiring yet because they can make more profit with the reduced overhead for a while, but that won't last. They'll start hiring again like mad when things pick up in a month or two to level they can't cope with. Some people are still being made redundant I accept, but these are people at the end of the chain (roofers who were finishing off the stuff that others started and still had gainful employment for while, for example). Meanwhile the foundation people who laid off first are starting up business again. So it goes on.

There will be no winter of discontent. No more HPC following seventeen months of crash.

It's over. Business as usual.

The current bull fave.

Well guys that crash we comedically failed to see it coming, its not been as big as the 75% every bear ever predicted.

Se we bulls, who comedically failed to see it coming at all, win.

Tired really.

[winkie]

I agree no more crashes, more like a slow downward spiral....until they sort, fix, repay the huge budget deficit.