Ftse Breaks 5200

[Van]

I closed several of my long positions today and went short on the FTSE as a hedge on my remaning longs. Only £2/pp at this stage, but we've had 7 consecutive days of gains and are due a pullback now. Will add to my position when (and only when) my short is in profit.

[Marina]

Same here, but I dont use those muppet devices - 'Investment Trusts' which can be highly geared and volatile. Unit Trusts are the way for me - youre closer to the underlying assets.

Like you I kept buying through the last SM downtime and now its proving a good stratergy.

All those people out there beavering away to make thier companies richer must be good to invest in.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well if it works for you - good. However buggered if I will give any fund manager 5.25% of my capital as a going in present. The tossers take 2 years just to get you back to where you started. Might be okay on a 20 year horizon but the days are gone when you could buy a basket of FTSE shares (which is all most Unit Trusts do), sit back and watch it grow. Brave new world now - who knows if BT, British Airways, Sainsburys, Marks and Spencer will even be around in 10 years? These people have to invest in a number of shares and usually hold big positions they cannot get out of easily. If I am going to hold a supermarket I'll hold Tesco thanks. I won't put my money in a Unit Trust where they have to hold Tesco, Sainsbury and Morrisons. When things start going wrong they take ages to get out of a position.

[laurejon]

What about lendlease they are bound to pick up work from the Olympics having already proved themselves in both London and Sydney.?.

[Marina]

Today's action:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

What does that tell you? Never understood charts. It tells me the price went up today!

[laurejon]

It could also be representative of how many children will die in Africa each hour as borrowed money is funelled into the East End of London to finance a two week 100 metre dash.

[oracle]

Bull markets climb a wall of worry:

worry about high oil price

worry about middle east/iran

worry about house price crash/high street slump.

I'm staying in the FTSE for a while longer chaps,the good thing about sterling weakening is the US$ conversion rate is much better,giving better earnings and increased divi's.....the lovely mix of capital growth and improving yield.

stick that in your BTL and smoke it!!!

what the BLT's don't yet realise is that UK domestic may get shot to bits,with lay offs galore,but the growth in the FTSE is mostly overseas....with any luck they'll figure this one out in a few years,and try to cash in the BTL portfolio's at just the wrong time,when the HPC is in full swing and the FTSE gets back to 6900+(unbelievable some of you may think but we all now the power of speculation don't we...so I'm not expecting much in the way of a pullback either!)

...and to any chartists,yes I know the index reads overbought at present(RSI above 70),but I'm still looking for year end 5500...with BP/Shell aand oil at $60bbl...that meand chunky profit and dividend hikes.

Edited July 6, 2005 by oracle

[Van]

Looks very toppy. Dow has lost 90pts today, so it looks like the end for this particular little run. Let's see what happens to IRs tomorrow. Currently Long Dow/Short FTSE.

[Van]

Anyone seen This lately?

Rate cuts? Dream on.

Edited July 6, 2005 by Van

[oracle]

Trend on FTSE still looks OK,if it does come back down a bit then I'm not going to get too worried unless it breaks 5000ish.,if it bounces back off that I think it will be on it's way up again

[oracle]

is a pretty good graph....shows a lot of resistance at 5350,so will take some getting through,but i'm optimistic

Edited July 6, 2005 by oracle

[mbga9pgf]

Quick adition, just found this on the FT, the Ftse went nuts after 12 as you would expect after the announcement of the olympics...

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/ca82d6be-edef-11d...000e2511c8.html

“Not only is the thought of lower interest rates underpinning the UK market but so is sterling’s slide against the dollar,” said Mike Lenhoff of Brewin Dolphin Securities: “The market is now approaching an overbought condition and the amber light is beginning to flash. Its worth noting that the rise in the FTSE has been associated with low volumes (since April). It doesn’t take much in a thin market for momentum to acquire a life of its own.”

In other words, if they dont get a cut in IRs like they are all expecting (expectiation; such a wonderful thing ) Then the market could VERY quickly go Pete Tong.

[okonu]

Must admit I buy shares with a view to holding forever. Sometimes I sell when I think the share has been revalued too much, or to cut losses when I obviously got it wrong.

Actually, I sometimes find myself getting annoyed when shares I like get revalued. Irrational, but it's always nice (and quite rare) to find a share that can be bought regularly on good fundamentals, and oddly annoying when market discovers it too. (e.g. HAECO/ Karrie Int'l, lovely little HK based industrial companies that I've had to stop buying for long time now, because are now fairly or maybe over valued) Bought HAECO from 12.5 to 25, it is now 50HKD a share

Much prefer low or no geared investment trusts or just a ETF to mutual funds. BMV. Yes, the BMV may likely never be arbitraged away in an IT, but, again, assuring to know it is there. Plus the management costs tend to be lower, and the trading costs in/out far far lower than a UT.

I believe we are in for long period of OK returns (I reckon 6%) - in which case low costs and good dividends become very important

[Pudniw]

Oil at $61/barrel and the Saudis have announced that they can't service demand for oil makes it very difficult to decide which way the FTSE will go. Although there has got to be some serious profit taking soon...

[spoon]

with £/$ trading very poorly i don't expect a significant reversal here.

however markets are ignoring the eventual impact on MPC thinking of a weaker pound and thus the potential for higher rates. if the pound continues to fall it will be a major talking point at the August Inflation Report.

you can't have your cake and eat it. something has to give and i expect stocks will give later this month.

Edited July 7, 2005 by spoon

[dogbox]

Well if it works for you - good.

Unit Trusts are only a part of my investment portfolio.

I too was erked by the initial and on - going charges but in the end it was past performance that suckered me in.

Framlington Health Fund returned 50 x what was put in between 1981 and 1998, despite gloom and recessions. So £50.00 per month became £500000 after 17 years.

If I only get 3 x what I put in I will happy.

I think there is often a tendancy amongst people like us to over - complicate long term investment. A freinds Mum bought Disney & RBS shares in the 1960s and just sat on them. A couple of years back she cashed them in for a fortune. No thought, no graphs, no hand wringing, just a quick off the cuff decision.

[dogbox]

Bull markets climb a wall of worry:

  worry about high oil price

  worry about middle east/iran

  worry about house price crash/high street slump.

I'm staying in the FTSE for a while longer chaps,the good thing about sterling weakening is the US$ conversion rate is much better,giving better earnings and increased divi's.....the lovely mix of capital growth and improving yield.

stick that in your BTL and smoke it!!!

what the BLT's don't yet realise is that UK domestic may get shot to bits,with lay offs galore,but the growth in the FTSE is mostly overseas....with any luck they'll figure this one out in a few years,and try to cash in the BTL portfolio's at just the wrong time,when the HPC is in full swing and the FTSE gets back to 6900+(unbelievable some of you may think but we all now the power of speculation don't we...so I'm not expecting much in the way of a pullback either!)

...and to any chartists,yes I know the index reads overbought at present(RSI above 70),but I'm still looking for year end 5500...with BP/Shell aand oil at $60bbl...that meand chunky profit and dividend hikes.

Im with you.

There have always been 'walls of worry' that didnt stop previous SM bull runs.

The mid - East has been about to boil over since I was born, AIDs was about to ruin the markets in the 1980s, not to mention Northern Ireland, Miners Strikes, Falklands War, Iraq 1991, Israel, OPEC crisis, 3 day weeks (70s), high unemployment, KY2, etc etc. Despite all this, the SM has proved a good long - term investment and for those that sold near the end of each bull run the profits have been spectaculor.

Again, my Framlington Health Unit Trust returned 50 x money invested on a monthly basis from 1981 - 1998 (I wasnt investing then unfortunately).

Once Ive reached the 15 - 20 year mark I will look to transfer the Equity based Trusts into Trusts backed by cash / Gold, but I will only do this during a bull run.

£500 per month is within ISA & previously PEP, so its all Tax free and unlike my poxy personal pension I control this pot.

[Pudniw]

FTSE is down 80 at the moment, due to the "bang" at Liverpool Street Station?

[Marina]

Im with you.

There have always been 'walls of worry' that didnt stop previous SM bull runs.

The mid - East has been about to boil over since I was born, AIDs was about to ruin the markets in the 1980s, not to mention Northern Ireland, Miners Strikes, Falklands War, Iraq 1991, Israel, OPEC crisis, 3 day weeks (70s), high unemployment, KY2, etc etc. Despite all this, the SM has proved a good long - term investment and for those that sold near the end of each bull run the profits have been spectaculor.

Again, my Framlington Health Unit Trust returned 50 x money invested on a monthly basis from 1981 - 1998 (I wasnt investing then unfortunately).

Once Ive reached the 15 - 20 year mark I will look to transfer the Equity based Trusts into Trusts backed by cash  / Gold, but I will only do this during a bull run.

£500 per month is within ISA & previously PEP, so its all Tax free and unlike my poxy personal pension I control this pot.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Why not get a SIPPs? I have one so I make the decisions on what to invest in. Still in some nano-technology stocks at the moment. I'm either going to retire potless or very rich. Can't see any point in being in-between. All that means is you're still hard up but you have to pay all your Council Tax.

[dogbox]

Why not get a SIPPs? I have one so I make the decisions on what to invest in.

My Wife & I also invest modest amounts in Pensions. What I mean by I have no control, reflects the fact that upon retirment you HAVE to give an annuity provider 75% of YOUR dosh. What if the anuity goes bust? Also for the higher paying annuities you have to give up the capital, so of you die after 1 year your loved ones get zilch, no thanks. I want as much control over my and my families financial well - being.

[eric pebble]

I closed several of my long positions today and went short on the FTSE as a hedge on my remaning longs. Only £2/pp at this stage, but we've had 7 consecutive days of gains and are due a pullback now. Will add to my position when (and only when) my short is in profit.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Down 90 points as I type Van!!!

Now ...... down 67.......

mmm........

[Pudniw]

Down 90 points as I type Van!!!   

Now ...... down 67.......

mmm........

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Down 146 according to Yahoo.

[Marina]

I think there is often a tendancy amongst people like us to over - complicate long term investment. A freinds Mum bought Disney & RBS shares  in the 1960s and just sat on them. A couple of years back she cashed them in for a fortune. No thought, no graphs, no hand wringing, just a quick off the cuff decision.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think you are right about the over-complicating thing. However, still think in today's world of an ever increasing rate of change - long term investment returns like that will become rarer. What if your friend's Mum had bought shares in Pan-Am and Polly Peck?

Take now for instance, if you own a Unit Trust that invests in the North American market you will own shares in General Motors and Ford - whose bonds have recently been downgraded to junk. Because they are massive companies - every fund holds shares in them - but because of globalization etc they are now being beaten to death by Toyota and Honda. Personally I think Unit Trusts are an anachronism - very few of them beat the market consistently - despite how they massage the figures in their adverts. A couple of years ago when things were bad you hardly saw an advert for fund managers. Then, a couple of the cheekier ones, who obviously had an advertising budget to spend, put out adverts showing that they had lost less of your money than others (and the market) over the last year! It shows the level of contempt they have for private investors that they bragg about how little they have lost. Thought these tossers were supposed to be experts!

Just think with the rate of change in the world these days, Unit Trusts are not a flexible enough way of responding to changes in the market.

[dogbox]

I think you are right about the over-complicating thing. However, still think in today's world of an ever increasing rate of change - long term investment returns like that will become rarer. What if your friend's Mum had bought shares in Pan-Am and Polly Peck?

Take now for instance, if you own a Unit Trust that invests in the North American market you will own shares in General Motors and Ford - whose bonds have recently been downgraded to junk. Because they are massive companies - every fund holds shares in them - but because of globalization etc they are now being beaten to death by Toyota and Honda. Personally I think Unit Trusts are an anachronism - very few of them beat the market consistently - despite how they massage the figures in their adverts. A couple of years ago when things were bad you hardly saw an advert for fund managers. Then, a couple of the cheekier ones, who obviously had an advertising budget to spend, put out adverts showing that they had lost less of your money than others (and the market) over the last year! It shows the level of contempt they have for private investors that they bragg about how little they have lost. Thought these tossers were supposed to be experts!

Just think with the rate of change in the world these days, Unit Trusts are not a flexible enough way of responding to changes in the market.

Im prepared to take the gamble. Look, right now all around the world human beings are working to make thier companies as a result themselves better off. My long - term view is that the generally positive outcomes of much of this activity will benefit me through investments.

M, its easy to think that after thousands of years of human history 'our particular time' on earth is a culmination and different, but I dont by this view. The same basic wealth creation principles apply now as the did 1000 years ago and will do so in 10000 years.

If you read history books there was always a sector of any community that subscribes to the over bearish view that all is about to come crashing down and things will be worse tomorrow. I can be bearish but I dont let an overly bearish grip cloud my judgement. Most importantly I make sure Im not a perpetual bear. Perpetual bears throughout thier lives take the bleak view which causes them to miss out on lifes opportunities.

[Van]

I was running a Long Dow/Short FTSE hedge, with a 1% automatic stop-loss in both positions. The Market drop today took out my Dow long, and I covered my FTSE short with good profit at about 11:30am when I managed to get into work this morning. I also closed down all my leveraged long positions yesterday, so I really got lucky there. I take no comfort at all in my profits.

[Guest Riser]

Just reported on working lunch:

FTSE down around 150 and "Special Measures are now in place to prevent melt down". Traders have been asked to switch off their black box trading systems.

Edited July 7, 2005 by Riser