There Is No Recession.

[Johnny Storm]

The value of total retail sales rose by 3.2pc compared with last June

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbys...y-heatwave.html

If sales are still rising when compared to a year ago when everyone thought everything was rosey, then how can we be in a recession now?

Surely people would be slashing their spending now? I dont mean by 1% or 2% like sometimes you see drops. a 2% drop is for every £1000 you spend you cut your spending £20. I mean really, would you bother?

All I can conclude, that the people who are experiencing hard times are such a small number that they are dwarfed by the rest of people who are spending just like they always did, if not more.

[interestrateripoff]

Food sales did particularly well as the hot weather drove up demand for salads, cold meats, summer berries and ice cream, the report says. Sales on a like-for-like basis, which strip out the effect of additional floor space, rose 1.4pc.

But if prices have increased that would push up value of total sales?

What are the volumes like, isn't that more important?

[pathfinder]

My town is packed with people spending. Its a bit like christmas though,spend money on kids. If people are not flying out of the uk i would expect a splurge of cash. If they are staying at home, going out from main residence, a family of 4 may have 1000 to spank plus spending money.

[Injin]

Money is being inflated to the moon and people aren't that daft.

What was it the other week - tins of beans at record selling levels?

[Johnny Storm]

Money is being inflated to the moon and people aren't that daft.

What was it the other week - tins of beans at record selling levels?

Are you suggesting that people are buying lots of stuff now while things are cheap? Other than food which has always gone up a lot every year in my opinion, everything else seems cheaper. Lots of sales, lots of price cuts to get people in the stores. I would still expect to see sales figures dropping like a stone.

But no, we have sales greater than during a boom month. Its crazy.

[Rakno]

I agree, I almost feel the recession is a cloud hanging over my head only. I haven't managed to get work now for 3 months and the prospects look bleak so I have cut back my spending drastically. But almost everyone around me is living it up as if nothing has happened.

[bagsos]

Whether there is a recession or not depends on whether you are looking at investment by business (collapsed) or spending on necessities by the consumer (not unsurprisingly, maintained). In our industry (packaging) we have 2 types of customer; industrial (car makers, chemical manufacturers, etc) and FMCG customers (food companies). Our sales to industrial customers have gone down drastically; sales to FMCG customers are hardly down at all.

[babesagainstmachines]

Recessions are always happening to someone else, until YOU lose your job

[Johnny Storm]

Recessions are always happening to someone else, until YOU lose your job

But you would think that a vast majority of people would be worried enough to actually reduce their discretionary spending quite a bit. Also lets not forget about those with savings who spent the interest.

[Dino]

BoE Deputy Gov. Charles Bean suggested last night we are now at the bottom.

Full steam ahead for the recovery then.

[wealthy]

But you would think that a vast majority of people would be worried enough to actually reduce their discretionary spending quite a bit. Also lets not forget about those with savings who spent the interest.

The vast majority of people are stupid though, expect them to behave sensibly at your peril

[babesagainstmachines]

But you would think that a vast majority of people would be worried enough to actually reduce their discretionary spending quite a bit. Also lets not forget about those with savings who spent the interest.

Not really. Most people don't sit around worrying, they get on with life. You only start to worry when your industry is struggling and you can see other people in your line of work being laid off.

Recessions are harmful to lots of people, but the biggest effect is indirect... in the increased tax burden from rising unemployment. The government are borrowing at the moment so most of us don't have to pay for the unemployment at the moment.

[aa3]

It is probably the most positive number I've seen in a year for Britain. I wonder if QE is working?

[SarahBell]

Did the govt have anything to do with these figures?

[OnlyMe]

See Bagsos comment regarding FCMG business. Same level sales, much higher food prices.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...mp;qpid=2009970

Food prices are STILL shooting up with grocery costs now rising at three times the rate of pay

[Johnny Storm]

You only start to worry when your industry is struggling and you can see other people in your line of work being laid off.

I wasnt aware there were any industries that werent struggling? Supermarkets maybe?

[interestrateripoff]

BoE Deputy Gov. Charles Bean suggested last night we are now at the bottom.

Full steam ahead for the recovery then.

And the BoE predicted the crash with such accuracy.

[Moley]

We started living very frugally in January 2007 when we hit a lean patch financially, and have continued ever since. £10 a day food budget, grow our own veg, only buy meat when it is discounted, save every penny you can. I think most people are a pay cheque away from financial Armageddon and with many people working on fixed term contracts there is no longer the cushion of a redundancy payment.

[Mammon]

The value of total retail sales rose by 3.2pc compared with last June

Near 0% mortgages have saved millions of people on tracker mortgages 1000s of pounds a year.

In my case its nearly 10,000 a year i will be saving, assuming low rates last for a year atleast.

This has casued me to losen the purse strings somewhat..

[joconme]

There are so many conflicting views regarding the economy, but surely the most authentic and telling indicator is GDP. I think GDP is an authentic indicator of what is, and therefore, what will follow. Which, as we all know, doesn't make good reading. Perhaps a lot of people are living for today and trying not to worry about tomorrow. I should think retailers could quite possibly be in for an all time bumper Christmas, but that wouldn't convince me that things are on the up. It would confirm that people are trying to forget, if only for a short while.

[HumanAction]

But if prices have increased that would push up value of total sales?

What are the volumes like, isn't that more important?

Yeah, I wonder just how much of the 'growth' of recent years has just been unmeasured inflation.

[leicestersq]

Money is being inflated to the moon and people aren't that daft.

What was it the other week - tins of beans at record selling levels?

tins of beans being sold at record levels? I cant think of anything more inflationary.

[Brave New World]

We started living very frugally in January 2007 when we hit a lean patch financially, and have continued ever since. £10 a day food budget, grow our own veg, only buy meat when it is discounted, save every penny you can. I think most people are a pay cheque away from financial Armageddon and with many people working on fixed term contracts there is no longer the cushion of a redundancy payment.

We are saving hard and have been for the last 18 months, means no foreign holiday this summer or skiing but you don’t bother about interest rates when can bat away a decent amount each month. I love the feeling of going from Monday to Friday with spending a £5 max. Is quite a nice feeling!

Also cut back to one car and we are saving a massive amount.

Non of our friends 25-35 save at all. And as you say are a pay cheque away.

Although one impact the recession has had is to make me less likely to move jobs, when you have worked somewhere for 6 years you don’t willingly work away from the security of a couple of months payout (not massive I know) to a new job where you can be paid up for a week.

[aa3]

Near 0% mortgages have saved millions of people on tracker mortgages 1000s of pounds a year.

In my case its nearly 10,000 a year i will be saving, assuming low rates last for a year atleast.

This has casued me to losen the purse strings somewhat..

That is a huge amount.. I think you are right that the change in their monthly payments with the trackers is a big factor in this. Refinancing could have been a big one, but it seems mortgage rates have gone back up to what they were before the BoE cut rates.

That plus the aggressive QE.. seems to have put the UK in a good situation relative to peer countries.

[Brave New World]

There are so many conflicting views regarding the economy, but surely the most authentic and telling indicator is GDP. I think GDP is an authentic indicator of what is, and therefore, what will follow. Which, as we all know, doesn't make good reading. Perhaps a lot of people are living for today and trying not to worry about tomorrow. I should think retailers could quite possibly be in for an all time bumper Christmas, but that wouldn't convince me that things are on the up. It would confirm that people are trying to forget, if only for a short while.

Just an indication of human nature. Put your fingers in your ears and close your eyes and it might just not be happening.

You don't also eradicate 7 years + of rampant consumer culture quickly, in fact it is just about the only culturally significant identity of this country. George Romero had it spot on!!!!! It really is pitiful - i work in a retail based service industry!