Fulham

[Rachman]

Sold for £496k, peak price in the road was 840k in 2007. So add 50k for renovations and that's about 35% down in 2 years.

Ouch.

£ 50K to do it up to match a peak priced one. Er, doubt it. If you can't do it yourself, it will be £80K to £250K dependent on the loft extensions, side return or cellars that you do. I'd expect the peak price one to have had all of them done or at least two of them and be excellent jobs. So let's say £150K plus add in the 20% margin/profit for buying at auction and taking the risk and doing the work (that's the traditional model). So £500K plus £150K plus £130K - makes it £780K....... not far out.

You can (and probably will) argue that the margin, the costs of doing it up can be cut back on, but have you ever done this sort of work and therefore know what it costs - if you have and you can do it up properly in a reasonable timescale for £50K I have a lot of work for you.

[The Three Little Pigs]

Don't understand.

You say that '7500 sales a year are required to pay the interest'. Then you say that 'Foxtons total possible sales are 20,160 a year'.

It seems to me that they only have to sell 1/3 of their total possible sales to pay their interest. (I.e. the opposite of your conclusion).

My mistake - mitigation, half a bottle of wine on an empty stomach. OP ammended.

Edited April 13, 2009 by The Three Little Pigs

[The Three Little Pigs]

Rightmove Survey released this week and titled "Spring bounce continues as prices find their floor"

Asking prices for H&F:

April 09 £703,446

March 09 £725,326

Monthly movement Minus 3%

April 08 £702,387

Annual movement Plus 0.2%

Prices higher than a year ago? Ha, Ha, Ha

All down to more expensive properties coming on to the market so skewing their index? Change your model, Shipside

Edited April 22, 2009 by The Three Little Pigs

[Frizzers]

£ 50K to do it up to match a peak priced one. Er, doubt it. If you can't do it yourself, it will be £80K to £250K dependent on the loft extensions, side return or cellars that you do. I'd expect the peak price one to have had all of them done or at least two of them and be excellent jobs. So let's say £150K plus add in the 20% margin/profit for buying at auction and taking the risk and doing the work (that's the traditional model). So £500K plus £150K plus £130K - makes it £780K....... not far out.

You can (and probably will) argue that the margin, the costs of doing it up can be cut back on, but have you ever done this sort of work and therefore know what it costs - if you have and you can do it up properly in a reasonable timescale for £50K I have a lot of work for you.

Yes.

500k looks a bad buy to me

[mervyn]

Rightmove Survey released this week and titled "Spring bounce continues as prices find their floor"

Asking prices for H&F:

April 09 £703,446

March 09 £725,326

Monthly movement Minus 3%

April 08 £702,387

Annual movement Plus 0.2%

Prices higher than a year ago? Ha, Ha, Ha

All down to more expensive properties coming on to the market so skewing their index? Change your model, Shipside

Yep. My regular property bee search in Fulham suggests that there are slightly fewer houses having the price cut than there were a couple of months ago, although there are still a good few each week. I haven't seen a price rise in a long time mind you .

[Frizzers]

We're getting a bounce. Just like in 1991. People are still obsessed with property. Activity is up. Folks are being kidded by these low interest rates. When they go up, all those people paying £50 per month to service a 200k mortgage are going to get mullered and that's when we get capitulation, repossessions and all the rest of it.

[The Three Little Pigs]

Any hopes of a stabilising property market in H&F look well trashed by Darling's forthcoming tax rises.

The budget announced an additional higher rate of income tax of 50%, effective from 2010/11 for individuals with taxable income above £150,000.Moreover,the basic personal allowance will be gradually eliminated where a person’s total ‘adjusted net income’ is more than £100,000 by reducing the allowance by £1 for every £2 that the income limit is exceeded. Therefore, if the adjusted net income is £105,000, this exceeds the £100,000 limit by £5,000 and £2,500 of personal allowance would be lost. The latter change looks to be aimed straight at Fulham's solar plexus - someone mentioned to me it will mean an effective tax rate of 61%.

So much talk of the threat of the "brain drain" at the moment. But hasn't anyone (in finance) who could go already gone - remember last year's "Dubai, Shanghai or Good Bye". Perhaps there are some, in other businesses, who now have the wish and ability to leave but reducing disposable income, unemployment and fear for the future seem stronger drivers of decreasing prices.

Oh and do remember: if you are lucky enough to be pulling in £150,000 this year and have £250,000 cash you are still £3,000 short of buying the average H&F property as valued by Rightmove - if your bank will let you borrow 3 times your income.

Edited April 26, 2009 by The Three Little Pigs

[The Three Little Pigs]

And yes there is still space for one more nail in the coffin of the Fulham rental market:

"HMRC has announced that legislation will be enacted to stop, with effect from budget day, avoidance of income tax through the provision of accommodation to employees through so-called ‘lease premium’ arrangements. These arrangements have been particularly popular with employers of inbound expatriate employees whose stay in the UK is to be longer than 2 years."

Source Baker Tilly

[The Three Little Pigs]

Land Registry Report released end April 09

Average House Price Mar 09 - £426,949

Average House Price Feb 09 - £434,790

Average House Price Feb 09 as reported by Land Reg one month ago - £435,497

Monthly movement – Minus 1.8%

True Monthly movement - Minus 1.97%

Bear Food - Land Reg YoY minus 15.8%.

Bear Food - Total loss from peak £87,590 (17.0%)

Bear Food - Volume figure at between one third and one quarter of recent levels:

Jan 95 - 212

Jan 96 - 172

Jan 97 - 280

Jan 98 - 191

Jan 99 - 174

Jan 00 - 274

Jan 01 - 232

Jan 02 - 210

Jan 03 - 205

Jan 04 - 260

Jan 05 - 182

Jan 06 - 241

Jan 07 - 261

Jan 08 - 178

Jan 09 - 60

Food for thought - Volume hits a new low, 70 pcm had been the floor previously. No wonder Robert Green of John D Wood chose to leave aside Fulham in his RICS comment of that month.

Food for thought - As volumes decrease the changes to the volume figures become fewer and lesser. October 08 recorded 101 sales when released and 3 updates later stands at 104, November 08 was 71 at release and remains at 71 and December 08 was 70 and is now 71. The inclusion of new data is used by the Land Reg to explain the revisions made to the price levels and percentages. But with so little new data coming in how do the Land Reg explain their monthly downward revisions?

Food for thought: 4479 homes in the borough are now worth less than was paid for them.

Food for thought - As usual the true fall is magiced away by the Land Reg revising the previous months figure downwards. But we keep notes here so can announce prices fell by almost 2.0% in H&F last month according to the Land Reg.

Food for thought: This the thirteenth consecutive month of falls takes us back only as far as March 2007. Fair way to go to get to my 20th Century prices prediction;-)

Edited April 30, 2009 by The Three Little Pigs

[The Three Little Pigs]

Worth noting that Frizzers' Wandsworth showed H&F the way with a stonking Land Reg fall of 4% this month. That means their year on year fall has gone ahead of ours, reaching 17.5%

Seems the poster named "Putney prices to come down" has got it right

[Foundthelight]

A friend of mine’s misses has just had an offer of £307k offer accepted on the following:

Only a 10% drop I tried to warn her….

Sold at the peak of the market:

20 April 2007 88a Barons Court Road Leasehold Flats/Maisonettes £340,000

[TeddyBear]

A friend of mine’s misses has just had an offer of £307k offer accepted on the following:

Only a 10% drop I tried to warn her….

Sold at the peak of the market:

20 April 2007 88a Barons Court Road Leasehold Flats/Maisonettes £340,000

Why only the misses? Is she moving out or is it a BTL?

[The Three Little Pigs]

More grief for the mini men. Just what the Foxton's P&L needs - an expensive High Court defence

"Landlords letting properties through Foxtons, the estate agent, are given confusing and unfair contracts, the High Court was told yesterday at the start of a test case that could shake up the residential lettings industry.

The Office of Fair Trading (OFT), which is bringing the case, asked the High Court to force Foxtons, one of Britain’s largest lettings agents, to alter its terms and conditions because they are detrimental to clients. "

Not common for the thread to be on the side of landlords but my enemy's enemy is my friend as they say.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle6194619.ece

[Foundthelight]

Why only the misses? Is she moving out or is it a BTL?

I say his misses it’s his girlfriend. They were renting together, fortunately she’s buying it in her name so he won’t be liable.. unless he marries her….

See below…

“She paid what she wanted to pay, and what the owner was happy with. Did you accept what you wanted?

To say it’s naïve is also a little naïve, we have lived in the area for 2 years Kerry for 6, I think we have an understanding of the area and as a result, to draw figures from a internet page is very insular and to look at the news is a very broad spectrum prices may well have dropped but to say 20% off peak is very general, not all areas are 20% down some more some less.

And I think you have nailed it “You give me sound economic reasons why you think this will be the case and then I’ll do the same why they will….” That’s what economics is theories from opposing views.

Time will tell, but I predict 2 beds flats on this street will not drop to £240,000 maybe I’m right maybe I’m not but again you do your research and have accepted down on what you wanted on two properties so who really knows.

Appreciate the looking though mate, got much on this weekend?”

[Extradry Martini]

I say his misses it’s his girlfriend. They were renting together, fortunately she’s buying it in her name so he won’t be liable.. unless he marries her….

See below…

“She paid what she wanted to pay, and what the owner was happy with. Did you accept what you wanted?

To say it’s naïve is also a little naïve, we have lived in the area for 2 years Kerry for 6, I think we have an understanding of the area and as a result, to draw figures from a internet page is very insular and to look at the news is a very broad spectrum prices may well have dropped but to say 20% off peak is very general, not all areas are 20% down some more some less.

And I think you have nailed it “You give me sound economic reasons why you think this will be the case and then I’ll do the same why they will….” That’s what economics is theories from opposing views.

Time will tell, but I predict 2 beds flats on this street will not drop to £240,000 maybe I’m right maybe I’m not but again you do your research and have accepted down on what you wanted on two properties so who really knows.

Appreciate the looking though mate, got much on this weekend?”

Why is it that people think that if they "know the area" that they understand the forces working on the real estate market? House prices move because of macro economic factors, the only thing the micro of the local area affects is the price move relative to other areas. Besides, I have lived in Fulham on and off for 25 years - I "know the area" and I happen to know that the biggest two price drivers in the bull market were improving credit conditions (this one was the same everywhere) and a massive expansion in the financial services sector. Both of these drivers are in reverse, which is why Fulham, along with a handful of other areas, will duffer more than most.

[Olala]

Why is it that people think that if they "know the area" that they understand the forces working on the real estate market? House prices move because of macro economic factors, the only thing the micro of the local area affects is the price move relative to other areas. Besides, I have lived in Fulham on and off for 25 years - I "know the area" and I happen to know that the biggest two price drivers in the bull market were improving credit conditions (this one was the same everywhere) and a massive expansion in the financial services sector. Both of these drivers are in reverse, which is why Fulham, along with a handful of other areas, will duffer more than most.

But there are still some heavily overpriced houses out there and some of them seem to be going under offer...Saw a house yesterday in the window of an agents, only 1100sq ft and priced at 800k. I told the agents it was overpriced and they said' We know. We've just taken it on but the owner wants that price on it as another agent priced it higher than we did'...With agents and sellers like that around, how long before Fulham starts getting some sensibly priced houses?

[The Three Little Pigs]

Parking Hell Wednesdayevening.

I hate Chelsea V Barcelona evening kick off

Time was we had rights as residents with cars. No more. Wanting to park near to our home after a hard day paying PAYE, NI, fuel duty, Council tax and a parking permit it is not our right.

Local residents get the worst of football.

Remember to talk to your neighbours and arrange vehicles that annoying distance apart - just that inch too near to park between.

Childish as it is what other action can we take?

Edited May 3, 2009 by The Three Little Pigs

[SHERWICK]

Parking Hell Wednesdayevening.

I hate Chelsea V Barcelona evening kick off

Time was we had rights as residents with cars. No more. Wanting to park near to our home after a hard day paying PAYE, NI, fuel duty, Council tax and a parking permit it is not our right.

Local residents get the worst of football.

Remember to talk to your neighbours and arrange vehicles that annoying distance apart - just that inch too near to park between.

Childish as it is what other action can we take?

Ummmm... move to a different area?

Just a thought.

[Frizzers]

Looking to rent a new place in Wandsworth.

Asking prices still frustratingly high.

[the_duke_of_hazzard]

Looking to rent a new place in Wandsworth.

Asking prices still frustratingly high.

Do you use property-bee? Can sort out the desperate-on-the-market from the new-to-the-market.

[quine]

Parking Hell Wednesdayevening.

I hate Chelsea V Barcelona evening kick off

Time was we had rights as residents with cars. No more. Wanting to park near to our home after a hard day paying PAYE, NI, fuel duty, Council tax and a parking permit it is not our right.

Local residents get the worst of football.

Remember to talk to your neighbours and arrange vehicles that annoying distance apart - just that inch too near to park between.

Childish as it is what other action can we take?

Another house occupier that believes the road outside their property belongs to them! Mind you most drivers seem to think the road belongs to them nowadays.

[missedtheboat]

Another house occupier that believes the road outside their property belongs to them! Mind you most drivers seem to think the road belongs to them nowadays.

The football ground has only been there since 1905, life is so cruel. I feel for you, I really do.

[Postigol]

The football ground has only been there since 1905, life is so cruel. I feel for you, I really do.

maybe, but they didn't have any fans until Roman took over

[Bosh]

I used to live on the New Kings Road, Fulham and moved out when I was 27. We could never park near our house and never knew any better.

I used to make money as a nipper in helping people park on matchdays and I have been a Chelsea Follower since well before Fulham turned into a money area.

Some parts still are, but back then Fulham was a dump with many derelict sites and old Bomb sites that were fantastic playgrounds for children.

It is true that the football stadium was there well before Fulham became a fashionable place to live. If you are fortunate enough to spend between 500k to 2 million on a property, I would seriously do some research first. Cheslea FC is the most central London Team, recently the most suucesful team in the capital and despite this silly view that we only really existed since the Russian came along, I can provide fact after fact to show that we were a winning team prior to Roman under Ken Bates wih good attendances.

Anyway, I think the football club enhances the area and brings much needed revenue to local, cafes, restaurants, bars, pubs etc. Football has a decent mix of male and female followers now and Chelsea being in central London has it`s fair share of cosmopolitan fans.

It`s the council, local authorities that cause the parking issues around the ground.

Live and let live.

I will be at the bridge tonight and will be spending money in one of the local bars.

[The Three Little Pigs]

H&F charge car owners for a parking permit. However the restrictions governing the use of residents only parking and space shared between residents and pay as you park users have changed. Permit holders used to be given a ticket. Travel by car to Chelsea home games decreased. Now there are no tickets and ordinarily no charge for parking: both Match Day traffic and parking problems have increased.

The council’s policy is now encouraging travel by car to matches, when good public transport alternatives exist.

So you could have done your research, accepted one set of rules and then find they change.