Do You Think The Hpc Website Will Ever Be A Forum That Would Accept A Balanced Argument?

[Kootenai Brown]

Do You Think The Hpc Website Will Ever Be A Forum That Would Accept A Balanced Argument?

Do you even know what you are asking?

Accept A Balanced Argument

This website accepts posts from everyone.

Arguing about something that HAS happened (House prices down 20%) is a little silly don't you think? It is a fact. Do you agree with this statement of fact? If not, please provide evidence. The housing price market has crashed. This webside debates a house price crash. Why would we have a balanced argument now on whether house prices are crashing?

An argument about the future of the housing market is another thing. As it turns out, this site has many more posters who think house prices will continue to fall. The arguments are in many cases backed up by evidence and logic. At the moment the other side of the argument (ST bulls) do not have much evidence and little logic. Those who can provide no evidence and little logic cannot complain when people do not agree with them.

What is your idea of a balanced argument? 50% of posters saying that the earth is round and 50% of posters saying the earth is in fact a cube? That is like balancing intelligence with stupidity for the sake of it.

Wickity Wackity Woo!

Edited April 28, 2009 by Burned Out

[will77t]

Bet a 1000 quid on house prices rising in the next 12 months

Then come back and tell us all how much money you made

Then everyone WILL be impressed

This is a genuine suggestion BTW.

If I were a bull, I would but I'm not. neither am I a bear. Why don't you use £1000 to short housing?

[50%deposit]

Arguing about something that HAS happened (House prices down 20%) is a little silly don't you think? It is a fact. Do you agree with this statement of fact? If not, please provide evidence.

you are wrong. I think house prices have risen 20%

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2008/jul/2...prices.property

http://www.livecharts.co.uk/share_prices/n..._again_in_April

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/art...mp;in_page_id=8

[PotNoodle]

Balanced argument ????

I do hope not.

Without HPC what else would I do with my broadband connection ?

[rw42]

I don't think I disagree with this. The bulls are terribly outnumbered here. It would take someone a great deal smarter than me to take on the collective so I won't bother, not even to play devil’s advocate. But I can take a step back and see the site for what it is.

I think it’s great and I genuinely enjoy reading the posts - but from what I read it is one sided debate and this is why I've posed the original question. I don’t believe that there’s no counter arguments, I believe the counter arguments are not welcome. Would I like to see more bull posts (yes) but that doesn’t make me a bull (or a troll as some have suggested).

So:

- You believe a lot of people on here are smarter than you. Agreed.

- You're sure there are counter-arguments to the posts on here, but can't be bothered to find any.

- You choose to believe that in spite of all the arguments and evidence for a HPC, that we're all just patting ourselves on the back.

- You accuse the forum in general of having a self-reinforcing bias, when all you need (and are able to find) to reinforce your own opinion is your own imagination.

I'm not sure if this makes you a troll or just a total flaming idiot, but i think i've had enough of trying to debate it with you.

[rw42]

If I were a bull, I would but I'm not. neither am I a bear. Why don't you use £1000 to short housing?

To short housing?

Please show me a tradeable instrument (Spread bet or CFD?) that would allow me to go short on the current house price index - i.e. not a future market where a fall has already been priced in.

[Kootenai Brown]

you are wrong. I think house prices have risen 20%

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2008/jul/2...prices.property

http://www.livecharts.co.uk/share_prices/n..._again_in_April

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/art...mp;in_page_id=8

What you think and what is reality seem to be completely different things. Where does it say, in any of those links, that house prices have risen 20% in the past year?

I don't know why I bother. It's like having an argument with a plank of wood.

[gravity always wins]

If you are driving the wrong way up a one way street it is no good complaining everyone else is going the wrong way.

Edited April 28, 2009 by gravity always wins

[Guest X-QUORK]

If everyone on this site agrees that it's foolhardy to view the sun through binoculars, does that make it an unbalanced premise?

[D.C.]

I can think of 6 situations in which house prices could (theoretically) rise again in real terms: as follows:

1. If by some extraordinary quirk of the law of unintended consequences, the UK £ was to find itself as the reserve currency of the world. This could only happen by bizarre chance, most likely as a result of 2, (or the unexpected discovery of an enormous gold mine under the UK)

2. If by some...consequences, british banks were to find themselves holding no worthless paper when congress pulls the curtain down on the bail-outs. ie if by some chance the bail-outs now in progress refunded all the british banks' debts (perhaps because they made dodgy loans sooner and stopped sooner than other banks) , and the future demands (still to come) were all foreign banks'. Thus at the moment congress stops the bail-outs, UK banks happen to have been paid off.

3. Threat of collapse of several major UK banks at the same time as capital controls are in place, leading people (for a very short time) to pay anything rather than keep (and risk losing) money in UK banks

4. Hyperinflation

5. Government confiscation of non-housing wealth (or significant differential taxation), combined with capital controls and controls of movement of people.

6. Most of the world's wealthy fleeing to UK.

7. Complete collapse of international trade.

Most of these look vanishingly unlikely (unless as part of an american criminal plot). 3,4,& 5 look unlikely to work, as people will simply move their money abroad or into commodities if they can. 6 Would require catastrophe everywhere else. 7 would only increase the value of arable land, not so much house prices

Sir you are mistaken. After careful consideration I will now disagree with you in a balanced fashion.

If international trade collapsed totally our island residents would be far too busy investing in food to buy houses. The price would not go up. The only exception to that would be farmhouses, but there probably wouldn't be many people selling those.

[Game_Over]

If I were a bull, I would but I'm not. neither am I a bear. Why don't you use £1000 to short housing?

Because I wouldn't get odds on house prices falling and I know they aren't going to rise.

The only way I could short would be to sell up, rent then buy back when prices have fallen further

But I view a house as a home, not an investment vehicle, so I will stay put and just enjoy the fact that when my kids buy a house in a few years time it will be at least 50% cheaper than it would have been in 2007.

[will77t]

So:

- You believe a lot of people on here are smarter than you. Agreed.

- You're sure there are counter-arguments to the posts on here, but can't be bothered to find any.

- You choose to believe that in spite of all the arguments and evidence for a HPC, that we're all just patting ourselves on the back.

- You accuse the forum in general of having a self-reinforcing bias, when all you need (and are able to find) to reinforce your own opinion is your own imagination.

I'm not sure if this makes you a troll or just a total flaming idiot, but i think i've had enough of trying to debate it with you.

Look I'm not going to put forward a bull argument despite all the baiting beacuse I'M NOT A BULL. That's not to say I couldn't but don't want to (that's not what this thread is about). I do belive there is a great deal of confirmation bias on here (if you don't then you're blind) but past statistics current figures are just that (statistics and figures). It is not a guarantee. I'm probably a flaming idiot for asking the original question - I suppose not many of you would want to acknowledge that you've gone a bit too far.

As for me, I'm out. I'll carry on reading with interest but I'll continue to take the extreme posts with a pinch of salt.

[GrillsBears]

Look I'm not going to put forward a bull argument despite all the baiting beacuse I'M NOT A BULL. That's not to say I couldn't but don't want to (that's not what this thread is about). I do belive there is a great deal of confirmation bias on here (if you don't then you're blind) but past statistics current figures are just that (statistics and figures). It is not a guarantee. I'm probably a flaming idiot for asking the original question - I suppose not many of you would want to acknowledge that you've gone a bit too far.

As for me, I'm out. I'll carry on reading with interest but I'll continue to take the extreme posts with a pinch of salt.

Would you believe that a site discussing gravity would show confirmation bias if 100% of contributors reported that gravity exists?

[Jim B.]

I've deliberately sat on the fence. Truth is I believe it could go either way.

Ignoring the fact that obviously, as you have admitted, it has gone one way already (record drops, much worse than the last crash) then I take it you mean, when you say either way, that we will have further falls or the market will stabilise.

Even the most naive of person though would have to admit that the big factors - state of the economy, rising unemployment, how much the banks are lending etc - only point one way. THAT'S the evidence that exists, and it's real. To sit on the fench from a logic point of view you have to make a pretty strong argument against these things having no effect, the weight of evidence is clearly that house prices will fall further.

Unless you can provide any such evidence then your position can only be one of total denial. To be neutral now you have to be quite obviously ignoring the evidence.

[rw42]

Look I'm not going to put forward a bull argument despite all the baiting beacuse I'M NOT A BULL. That's not to say I couldn't but don't want to (that's not what this thread is about). I do belive there is a great deal of confirmation bias on here (if you don't then you're blind) but past statistics current figures are just that (statistics and figures). It is not a guarantee. I'm probably a flaming idiot for asking the original question - I suppose not many of you would want to acknowledge that you've gone a bit too far.

As for me, I'm out. I'll carry on reading with interest but I'll continue to take the extreme posts with a pinch of salt.

And you're a cross-dressing sheep molesting donkey. It's great making accusations without proof isn't it!

Please explain what this thread is about then. You seem to be accusing the site of bias in spite of frequent evidence posted along with any particular opinion, without in any way showing that there is any bias. Evidence counts for more than most on this forum.

[Guest X-QUORK]

Look I'm not going to put forward a bull argument despite all the baiting beacuse I'M NOT A BULL. That's not to say I couldn't but don't want to (that's not what this thread is about).

Jimmy Hill reck-on.

[Mal Volio]

I absolutely don't agree with the OP about house prices, but I do think he has a point about confirmation bias

This place is fascinating, and a source of good information, but the economic and political philosophies that define its flavour are not universal truths - and I suspect it would be rather hard to get a fair hearing for any POV that goes against them. That's OK - if you come here and rub up against the flow of things you'd rightly be seen as an irritant, but it's probably worth recognising that this place isn't necessarily entirely representative of the real world and that Other Perspectives May Be Available

[Mal Volio]

I'm probably a flaming idiot for asking the original question

I did feel you were probably courageous beyond the call of duty

I'll continue to take the extreme posts with a pinch of salt.

Probably the only way to make the most of this place.

[Hip to be bear]

I haven't ignored them; it's not my intention to put forward the case for the bulls (that's for the bulls of which I am not one). I have no real opinion of where the market will go as I genuinely believe it's a gamble more now then ever. Plenty of people on here genuinely believe it can go only one way and that's fair. It's their opinion, it's backed with evidence and I'm not going to suggest for one minute that they are wrong or will be wrong. Nor do I accept the prediction that there will certainly be falls. The only certainty we have is that we don't know. I do feel comfortable of accusing people on here of confirmation bias as it's quite apparent. Many on this very thread have suggested they come here for like-minded discussion.

Since Will is unwilling to play devil's advocate and put the bull's side of the argument foward, I will try to do it for him:

Please note that these are not my views, just my fears Don't flame me, just put your well reasoned and unbiassed arguments!!!!!!

1. VI spin and main stream media:

There is no counter argument in the main stream media to the VI spin. They keep telling us it is a great time to buy property, and with interest rates at all time lows and likely to stay low (the govt cannot afford high rates as its debt is growing so fast), people will believe that 20% off is as low as it is going to get.

2. Gordon will not let it go down:

Gordon seems to be pulling out every stop to inflate the market: interest rates, shared equity schemes, increased lending by nationalised banks: all he needs to do is keep it at a plateau for a couple of months and they can spin the bottom of the market.

3. Sentiment and pent up demand

We brits are obsessed with property and property prices, and the vast majority really believe that after this banking crisis is over, normal service will be resumed.

4. Low interest rates and taxation

Currently at all time lows so savers are being punished. The current movement in the market is partly attributed to canny investors snapping up properties that give them better yield on their savings. The budget hit the top earners and their pension contributions, but did it claw back any tax breaks from the BTL brigade??? No.

5. Regulation of the Mortgage Market.

Lord Turner of the FSA hinted at capping mortgage lending at 3X salary a few days before the release of a recent FSA report. Reading between the lines, this was deemed catastrophic fro the market and therefore rapidly removed with pressure from above. The FSA is now reporting in September, which is well after the UK hill walking season . I expect Lord Turner or his replacement to be brought into line!!!

All of these factors could play a part in extending a spring bounce into a rally. Any one else got any more compelling bull arguments?????

[rw42]

I absolutely don't agree with the OP about house prices, but I do think he has a point about confirmation bias

This place is fascinating, and a source of good information, but the economic and political philosophies that define its flavour are not universal truths - and I suspect it would be rather hard to get a fair hearing for any POV that goes against them. That's OK - if you come here and rub up against the flow of things you'd rightly be seen as an irritant, but it's probably worth recognising that this place isn't necessarily entirely representative of the real world and that Other Perspectives May Be Available

Regardless of what you consider a fair hearing though, to actually argue for confirmation bias you need to show a case where you believe it is occurring - i.e. a recent thread where there is true evidence for and against a particular event, and that the evidence to one side was ignored because it didn't fit the 'HPC view'.

I'm reminded of the lawyers saying:

- If the facts are on your side, then pound the facts.

- If the law is on your side, pound the law.

- If neither is on your side, pound the table.

OP seems to disagree with what is posted on HPC, but being unable/unwilling to disagree or debate any specific point, simply accuses the whole site of bias, and doesn't feel the need to come up with any examples.

[will77t]

Ignoring the fact that obviously, as you have admitted, it has gone one way already (record drops, much worse than the last crash) then I take it you mean, when you say either way, that we will have further falls or the market will stabilise.

Even the most naive of person though would have to admit that the big factors - state of the economy, rising unemployment, how much the banks are lending etc - only point one way. THAT'S the evidence that exists, and it's real. To sit on the fench from a logic point of view you have to make a pretty strong argument against these things having no effect, the weight of evidence is clearly that house prices will fall further.

Unless you can provide any such evidence then your position can only be one of total denial. To be neutral now you have to be quite obviously ignoring the evidence.

Public sentiment. Without wanting to sound like Sibley it's just that people I speak to day to day think they'll go back up. Something is only worth what someone is willing to pay. The majority of people I speak to seem to think it's a good time to buy but are waiting to see what happens. Most people don't read this site, they gauge their opinion from what they read in the newspapers and on the telly. If the media spin this in the opposite direction to the extreme bears on this site then it could go the other way. The banks want to ensure their money gets paid back, if public opion deems a floor has been reached then a floor has been reached and banks will begin to lend. My theory that it's a gamble is based on the media, how will they play it?

[Guest X-QUORK]

All of these factors could play a part in extending a spring bounce into a rally. Any one else got any more compelling bull arguments?????

Sorry to say, none of your examples are compelling arguments...but then you knew that didn't you?

[Guest X-QUORK]

Public sentiment. Without wanting to sound like Sibley it's just that people I speak to day to day think they'll go back up. Something is only worth what someone is willing to pay. The majority of people I speak to seem to think it's a good time to buy but are waiting to see what happens. Most people don't read this site, they gauge their opinion from what they read in the newspapers and on the telly. If the media spin this in the opposite direction to the extreme bears on this site then it could go the other way. The banks want to ensure their money gets paid back, if public opion deems a floor has been reached then a floor has been reached and banks will begin to lend. My theory that it's a gamble is based on the media, how will they play it?

Imagine a car with no wheels. No matter how much the population want it to move, and no matter how much the media report that it's a great little runaround, it ain't going nowhere.

[Mr Nice]

this is all just classic trollism, and would be better off ignored.

big accusations "you are all biased and will not listen to reason," but not followed up by any clear examples, or proved wrong with basic facts.

unemployment is rising.

mortgage transactions aren't.

the world economy is slowing and crashing at all time levels.

now there is even swine flu interfering with travel and trade.

there really aren't many reasons to believe that house prices will rise, or even stabilise.

if there are, I really would like to hear them.

so would many of the worlds economists.

[rw42]

Public sentiment. Without wanting to sound like Sibley it's just that people I speak to day to day think they'll go back up. Something is only worth what someone is willing to pay. The majority of people I speak to seem to think it's a good time to buy but are waiting to see what happens. Most people don't read this site, they gauge their opinion from what they read in the newspapers and on the telly. If the media spin this in the opposite direction to the extreme bears on this site then it could go the other way. The banks want to ensure their money gets paid back, if public opion deems a floor has been reached then a floor has been reached and banks will begin to lend. My theory that it's a gamble is based on the media, how will they play it?

Sentiment is not evidence. A poll of one (me) indicated that prices will fall more.