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House Price Crash Forum


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About will77t

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  1. -Anyalsis is useful to spot patterns and trends but we are in unchartered waters. It can not predict the future with 100% accuracy even at the best of times. http://www.glitec.co.uk/2009/01/is-there-a...-for-next-year/ - The overwhelming evidence on this site is for a house price crash. That is because an overwhelming number of people who come to a site like housepricecrash expect (and this is going to be a shocker) a house price crash. I am not saying that the balance wouldn't naturally be in favour of further falls, just that I'm sure it's not as one sided as it appears on here. -There are plenty of people (like bruce) who spend their time on here making bulls unwelcome. I'm sure we are missing out on a balanced argument because of this. I do not believe HPC is reflective of popular thought though this is merely my opinion based on speaking to folk. -I'm sure the bulls 'would' disagree, but the majority wouldn't be on this site and they wouldn't waste their time posting, much as they wouldn't go into a rivals football bar and try to convince them that their team is better and they should all swop their allegiance
  2. I'm not here to provide a bull stance, but I do acknowledge that on the subject of house prices it's a one sided debate on here that's not reflective of general opinion.
  3. As you note I'm a new-ish member and as such I had to get moderator approval to start this topic. They deemed it acceptable and I am writing with regards to the title. How is this trolling? You think I'm trolling. I think you're unhelpful in establishing a broader perspective. We'll have to agree to disagree.
  4. I've already said that I'm not a bull, and I'm certainly not foolish enough to take on the HPC collective on my own (that would be suicide). What I can say is that contrary opinion is (from what I've read) unwelcome and accusations of VI's soon follow. The term 'bull' has been substituted by many for 'greedy estate agent w**ker and BTL g*t who’s robbed my children of a chance to own their own home’. Through a lack of contrary opinion (that one could argue has come about by the unwelcoming stance many have taken - Bruce) the site has become a hotbed of confirmation bias. You may be missing something, I'm sure we all are, but who in their right mind will try and convince the HPC crowd? For me I'm 50/50 because while I have more evidence for a fall (from this site), I'm pretty sure the site has strong bias (my opinion). I have allowed for uncertainty and the unknown to reach this opinion (however unhelpful the opinion is). I have my bear reasons (there all on this site) and I have my bull reasons (which have been largely covered on this thread). The bull arguments are what people on here are pushing me for, and I'm pretty sure that's in order to label me with the title of 'bull' and unleash the hounds.
  5. Well this is quite on topic isn't it? Clearly you view contrary opinion as trolling and I don't think you're alone. This does not however build a welcome base for a balanced discussion. If people are made to feel unwelcome they won't stay and you'll be left with a group of people who all agree and you'll deprive yourself of a better debate. It's like a Man City supporter walking into a Chelsea supporter’s pub and saying "I tell you what, these Chelsea fans are t*ssers aren't they?"
  6. Well my word. Do you do anything lately but complain and tell everyone they're VI, trolls or estate agents paid to ramp house prices? If the first page of your contributions are anything to go by (which date back to Apr 16 2009, 10:03 AM) then the answer is a firm 'No'. Do you have a VI to protect?
  7. So what you're saying is that it wouldn't be rational, expected or plausible for the taps to be turned back on? I'd agree but I wouldn't say that it couldn't happen. My point is that in 2003 some of the founders believed that house prices couldn't keep on rising, they were right, but for the first five years they weren't.
  8. There's no link. Tell me if anyone can see it coming.
  9. I think you're largely right; perhaps I should have done away with the bit about accepting a balanced argument in the title and just concentrated on the confirmation bias. It’s true, the overwhelming evidence suggests further falls, but many members on here believe that possibility to be fact. At the moment it's just guess work: Very well researched guess work, but guess work nonetheless. In terms of providing counterargument in this respect, well, it's pretty hard! I've agreed with a few possibilities on this thread, but the crux of my argument is that it is the unexpected, the unknown and the decisions by those in power that could cause house prices to go the other way. These are by very nature unexpected and unknown and not necessarily rational. These were the very reasons why, despite a convincing argument to the contrary, house prices continued to rise well above where many on here were predicting.
  10. This serves to prove my point. In 2003 HPC's logic (however brilliant) would dictate that house prices should come down, but they didn't. Same goes for 2004, 2005, 2006 and most of 2007. Graphs, charts, statistics, examination of the evidence and with your fists pounding on the table they went onto rise. Government decisions that seemed baffling to you and events that seemed incomprehensible all caused prices to go in a different direction than you were expecting. Things do indeed look bad but I'll continue to say (however vexing it is to the senior members) that you can't predict the future with any accuracy - HPC's legacy is proof of that ( wrong 5 years out of seven despite some fabulous insights as to why it shouldn't be the case).
  11. These will be my concerns once I've sold my house. I don't think they're without merit.
  12. I don't, the crash is real but I just don't think the future can be predicted with any certainty.
  13. It's 'you're' not 'your', but I accept your point. I really don't mind being called a clothead but I don't think I'm alone in my clotheadedness. Don't disagree. So you assume we have all the facts now?
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